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I think the disruption from this point forward will happen from within. ;) :)

"innovator's Dilemma" spares no one.
I've been reading wiki on this Dilemma, it's so clear now thanks. So the dilemma is with the Incumbent Engineer trying to squeeze innovation out of existing technology were there is little to be gain on top of the S-Curve.

But why can't a company, with cash, recognize this dilemma and set aside money and time, separate budgets, NRE type stuff? Sure it bites into their margins, but can't they sell that alternative as the only way out? Set a 5 yr horizon with small wins along the way?

Or are the incumbent shareholders just shallow because they don't believe there is an issue at hand? Plus, I don't know how many times someone in their early 60's or higher would say to me "Who cares, I won't be around for this whole mess anyway." So maybe the some of the larger more elderly investors just prefer to ride it out.
 
Drone flyover today revealed refresh X testing on the track, and even more refresh S vehicles parked around. 1 ro-ro being loaded with refresh S today as well.
Wonder how much they’re keeping at Fremont on purpose for the June 3rd delivery event. I would assume they’re probably going to ask hundreds of model s reservation holders in the Bay Area to pick up their S from Fremont?
 
Lots of cases reported recently of tesla.com login not being available (like right now for me):

Screen Shot 2021-05-20 at 3.04.54 PM.png


Perhaps setting up the site for FSD subscription in preparation for the Jun 3 delivery event in Fremont?
 
I also wonder if they’re going to time V9 FSD, V11 OS update, and S deliveries all for June 3rd. Remember the new S/X use an updated software version for some of the stalk less driving features and we had that video of the software that was noticeably different with the buttons on the screen to turn on the auto direction feature
 
I've been reading wiki on this Dilemma, it's so clear now thanks. So the dilemma is with the Incumbent Engineer trying to squeeze innovation out of existing technology were there is little to be gain on top of the S-Curve.

But why can't a company, with cash, recognize this dilemma and set aside money and time, separate budgets, NRE type stuff? Sure it bites into their margins, but can't they sell that alternative as the only way out? Set a 5 yr horizon with small wins along the way?

Or are the incumbent shareholders just shallow because they don't believe there is an issue at hand? Plus, I don't know how many times someone in their early 60's or higher would say to me "Who cares, I won't be around for this whole mess anyway." So maybe the some of the larger more elderly investors just prefer to ride it out.
Google "The innovators Solution" - which is Clayton Christensen's follow up.
 
I've been reading wiki on this Dilemma, it's so clear now thanks. So the dilemma is with the Incumbent Engineer trying to squeeze innovation out of existing technology were there is little to be gain on top of the S-Curve.

But why can't a company, with cash, recognize this dilemma and set aside money and time, separate budgets, NRE type stuff? Sure it bites into their margins, but can't they sell that alternative as the only way out? Set a 5 yr horizon with small wins along the way?

Or are the incumbent shareholders just shallow because they don't believe there is an issue at hand? Plus, I don't know how many times someone in their early 60's or higher would say to me "Who cares, I won't be around for this whole mess anyway." So maybe the some of the larger more elderly investors just prefer to ride it out.
I had the benefit of taking a one day course with Clayton Christensen (the professor behind the Innovator's Dilemma) several years ago.
The main issue is that the company's existing business is such a large Cash Cow, that a new innovation (even if the company itself introduces it) will kill the company.

Blockbuster Entertainment had tremendous cash flow as each video tape/cd is re-rented 20-30 times (they had about 4,000 stores throughout North America). Early on, they had the opportunity to launch a Netflix type model but the analysis showed that the cash flow from a digital offering would take time and it would kill the in-store cash flow quickly......so they delayed and delayed until a small player (Netflix) proved the model could work and by that time it was too late for Blockbuster. Sound familiar?
 
No. I think they have to provide much more notice than that. (At least a month?)
In 2019 it was held June 11 and announced at least on May 1. So it not being announced yet probably indicates they are trying to have it non-virtual a bit later.

2020 of course was moved several times and finally held in September..
 
I had the benefit of taking a one day course with Clayton Christensen (the professor behind the Innovator's Dilemma) several years ago.
The main issue is that the company's existing business is such a large Cash Cow, that a new innovation (even if the company itself introduces it) will kill the company.

Blockbuster Entertainment had tremendous cash flow as each video tape/cd is re-rented 20-30 times (they had about 4,000 stores throughout North America). Early on, they had the opportunity to launch a Netflix type model but the analysis showed that the cash flow from a digital offering would take time and it would kill the in-store cash flow quickly......so they delayed and delayed until a small player (Netflix) proved the model could work and by that time it was too late for Blockbuster. Sound familiar?
The big debate within the Disruptive Innovation community (for lack of a better term) with EVs is whether or not they are a 'disruptive' innovation (which would mean a major threat to auto incumbents) or a 'sustaining' innovation (which would mean most Auto incumbents will easily survive the transition to EVs).

I think it is actually a good debate, with good arguments on both sides - but perhaps is too broad for a singular discussion, in that there are many parts of the auto industry being disrupted, while others are seeing minimal disruption and so can rightly treat it as a sustaining innovation.

Also, I think the shortage of battery supply is warping the discussion, and the debate may become very different when there is ample battery supply later in the decade.