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Since 4680 Model Y is on the horizon, Tesla needs to make sure that it does not "osborne" Model Ys out of Fremont and Shanghai.
Agreed, if the 4680 cells have better charging capabilities I expect them to initially be software limited to match current MY cells until such time as all new MY models have the new pack... then they can release a charging update to the whole fleet to update them overnight..... Osborne dealt with...
 
Tesla underestimates the effect it created by announcing 4680 structural battery pack.

Now, aside from the cost, everybody thinks that 4680 will have superior features to any existing battery cell : Performance, durability, charge speed ...

What happened is this : Almost everyone went for 4680 Plaid + instead of Plaid. Why pay $120K now if you can wait 6 months longer and get a superior product with only $20K more?

To get more orders for Plaid, Tesla tried several things so far:

1. Increased the price of Plaid +.
2. Delayed delivery times of Plaid +.
3. Grayed out Plaid + order button.

None of them worked I guess. Now there is no other choice but to cancel Plaid plus altogether.

Since 4680 Model Y is on the horizon, Tesla needs to make sure that it does not "osborne" Model Ys out of Fremont and Shanghai.
Even worse. Now I will cancel my Plaid order as as don't want the most expensive und fastest Tesla. It just doesn't fit my style. I will go for a LR or wait a year to get a structural pack.
 
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Agreed, if the 4680 cells have better charging capabilities I expect them to initially be software limited to match current MY cells until such time as all new MY models have the new pack... then they can release a charging update to the whole fleet to update them overnight..... Osborne dealt with...
MS would have nickel 4680 and MY iron phosphate. Apples and Bananas with the same form factor.
 
What I don't get is:

You planned an announcement event! Why spill the beans a few days earlier without proper context?

Either do the event and keep your mouths shut, or embrace his Twitter quirk and let him disclose one new feature every day leading up to the delivery date.

I think I know the real reason why Tesla closed their PR department: Everyone quit after tearing all their hair out....
Cancellation of Plaid+ is "bad" news and would overshadow all the positives of Plaid delivery day.
Similar to the quarterly call when J.B.'s departure was announced. Or the window incident on Cybertruck reveal.
This way the Plaid+ drop reaction can run its course and the Plaid advancements can stand on their own. Not that it won't be mentioned, but the impact will be attenuated.

It is also helpful to those with invites who were going to attend for Plaid+ based reasons. Now, they can choose to go or not knowing the + was depreciated.
 
Cancellation of Plaid+ is "bad" news and would overshadow all the positives of Plaid delivery day.
Similar to the quarterly call when J.B.'s departure was announced. Or the window incident on Cybertruck reveal.
This way the Plaid+ drop reaction can run its course and the Plaid advancements can stand on their own. Not that it won't be mentioned, but the impact will be attenuated.

It is also helpful to those with invites who were going to attend for Plaid+ based reasons. Now, they can choose to go or not knowing the + was depreciated.

at least sell the news will happen before hand 😅
 
I see too many here are hung up on the PLAID+ and it’s cancellation news. Disappointing to see that many truly don’t understand TESLA’s and ELON’s true character . TESLA isn’t going to sit idle after releasing the Plaid S, they will
Keep iterating it and the adrenaline rush of innovation never fades and pace of innovation never slows at Tesla. It’s just a matter of time before we will have much more advanced versions of the soon to be released PlaidS, whether then you call it PlaidS+ or by any other name is moot.
Change is the only constant at Tesla.
 
Despite attempts from CNBC to fret over imaginary bad news, TSLA is edging up towards $599, ostensibly "unchanged" on the news. Hopefully product introduction anticipation will push it higher today.

Can't help but observe the sharp-minded journos reporting the Jeff Bezos/Blue Origin news on that channel, particularly Joe "I dunno" Kernen. This awesome quote made me laugh - "well, we have been perfecting our trips to the international space station recently, so I guess they've got it down these days." The ISS trips have been a different space company. Blue Origin haven't got anything down because they haven't gotten anything up yet.
 
I see too many here are hung up on the PLAID+ and it’s cancellation news. Disappointing to see that many truly don’t understand TESLA’s and ELON’s true character . TESLA isn’t going to sit idle after releasing the Plaid S, they will
Keep iterating it and the adrenaline rush of innovation never fades and pace of innovation never slows at Tesla. It’s just a matter of time before we will have much more advanced versions of the soon to be released PlaidS, whether then you call it PlaidS+ or by any other name is moot.
Change is the only constant at Tesla.

Most people are disappointed by the range figure. $120k for the quickest and fastest production car ever is a steal, the next closest to it is the McLaren 765LT at $358k with maybe 360 miles of range.

I wonder if Rimac with the Nevera (fridge) will make their 1/4 of mile times official and take our thunder:


2.4M vs 120k
 
Who cares about the spoiler. What about the SpaceX package??? The world needs the SpaceX rockets!!!

Everyone who got excited watching the S on the Nürburgring last year and Laguna this year. :p

Possible explanation: Kato Road facility has been ramping up, obviously, but not ready for anything yet. Tesla redesigned the new Model S floorpan with two candidate pack designs... 4680 and 18650. Obviously deep enough to fit the 4680, but 18650 can be used if the 4680's aren't ready yet. (No castings yet, IMO.)

I'm wondering if internal data came down the pike recently that Roadrunner facility could produce enough 4680's to supply vehicle production at low volumes - and the Model S is a low-volume product. So recently they internally decided to switch to the structural/4680 battery pack.

Future developments include starting up Model X production, and front+rear castings for both.

My thought originally was that they would definitely be designing their cars to easily move between 4680 and 21700/18650 so that if 4680 didn't ramp they could easily switch back and forth. It would be weird to build a new factory that could only produce cars with 4680 because that's a LOT of risk.

If 4680 production has gone better than expected I could totally see them dropping the two forms of Model S (4680 and 18650) and just moving forward with 100% 4680. If that is the case I think that will be an extremely bullish sign. It's also possible that it went the other way, with the Plaid + having been destined for 4680s but without enough supply. In that case they are ditching the 4680 design which wouldn't be as promising. If that did happen then perhaps Roadster and maybe Semi will be pushed forward. Seems unlikely though. I think 4680 has ramped as well or better than planned.
 
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I'm surprised that after all the years you have participated in the many revealing conversations here that you still focus on things like "brand loyalty" and moats. Even Elon has let it be known that he thinks moats are "lame".

Tesla is not worried about the competition because the competition is naturally slower to innovate than Tesla and they cannot change fast enough to negate this fact. Tesla does not plan to sell every car they can make by creating "brand loyalty" and leveraging moats, they plan to do it by offering superior value. The Supercharger network is not a moat, it's a value proposition.

By building better cars, more cheaply, Tesla plans to sell everyone they can make. Brand loyalty has nothing to do with it. That's what you try to culture when you can't offer more value than the competition. If a car buyer want to pay more for less, they are welcome to buy the competition, Tesla is not going to try to sweet talk them back. Because Elon knows car buyers are not inherently stupid - they want to be getting good value for their hard-earned dollars.

That's Tesla's 10 year strategy in a nutshell. No one else can compete with it, they can only fill niche markets. Tesla is going after the bulk of the automotive consumer. Every other car maker will be collecting the scraps around the edges. Like Elon said, the actual product is the factory (the method of production). Anyone can build a nice car, the question is, how much will it cost. And did they hit a good price point by cutting corners or by making the car more efficiently?
I think you misinterpreted what Elon means. Moats are competitive advantages. No one thinks having competitive advantages are lame. What's the opposite of this then? Having competitive disadvanges?

Elon was saying you can't rest on your lurals once you have a moat like trying to spend more time defending that specific moat than to create more moats. It's like guarding the secret formula of coca cola vs inventing new flavors. So the pace of innovation is what gives you infinite moats and that becomes a moat itself.
 
I see too many here are hung up on the PLAID+ and it’s cancellation news. Disappointing to see that many truly don’t understand TESLA’s and ELON’s true character . TESLA isn’t going to sit idle after releasing the Plaid S, they will
Keep iterating it and the adrenaline rush of innovation never fades and pace of innovation never slows at Tesla. It’s just a matter of time before we will have much more advanced versions of the soon to be released PlaidS, whether then you call it PlaidS+ or by any other name is moot.
Change is the only constant at Tesla.
The things that matter are, price, range, performance, features etc.
We don't know the final specs on the Plaid, we only have a few days to wait and we may get a reason why Plaid+ was dropped.
Plaid deserves to be judged on merit.
 
I see too many here are hung up on the PLAID+ and it’s cancellation news. Disappointing to see that many truly don’t understand TESLA’s and ELON’s true character . TESLA isn’t going to sit idle after releasing the Plaid S, they will
Keep iterating it and the adrenaline rush of innovation never fades and pace of innovation never slows at Tesla. It’s just a matter of time before we will have much more advanced versions of the soon to be released PlaidS, whether then you call it PlaidS+ or by any other name is moot.
Change is the only constant at Tesla.

I slept on it and thought about it.
Yes the plus is cancelled.
Elon says the plaid is too good. Let’s say 450mi range optimistically.

so won’t the next reiteration of the regular “plaid” have 500-mi or so range? They don’t call it a plaid plus but just the 2024 plaid? That’s when plaid plus would’ve came out anyway.

I agree : why sell 2versions when plaid is so good?
 
Agreed, if the 4680 cells have better charging capabilities I expect them to initially be software limited to match current MY cells until such time as all new MY models have the new pack... then they can release a charging update to the whole fleet to update them overnight..... Osborne dealt with...
4680 may have worse charging capabilities. They will not be osborning demand. I suspect that 4680 cars with more range will be priced higher , or the ranges will be made very similar.
 
I think you misinterpreted what Elon means. Moats are competitive advantages. No one thinks having competitive advantages are lame. What's the opposite of this then? Having competitive disadvanges?

Elon was saying you can't rest on your lurals once you have a moat like trying to spend more time defending that specific moat than to create more moats. It's like guarding the secret formula of coca cola vs inventing new flavors. So the pace of innovation is what gives you infinite moats and that becomes a moat itself.
Yes, both are advantages, but that does not make them identical.
Moat: winning the race because you removed part of the race track. (Can't cross)
Innovation: winning the race because you accelerated faster than the others. (Can't pass)
Winning because no one else can play is lame.
Winning because you were the best is not lame.
 
4680 may have worse charging capabilities. They will not be osborning demand. I suspect that 4680 cars with more range will be priced higher , or the ranges will be made very similar.
4680s will not have better charging capabilities. It was made clear on the Battery Day presentation that the tabless design was to overcome that problem to make them comparable.

However, the 4680s and structural battery can result in a faster charging _battery_.
 
What I don't get is:

You planned an announcement event! Why spill the beans a few days earlier without proper context?

Either do the event and keep your mouths shut, or embrace his Twitter quirk and let him disclose one new feature every day leading up to the delivery date.

I think I know the real reason why Tesla closed their PR department: Everyone quit after tearing all their hair out....
Elon does expectation management. If he just introduces Plaid, everybody will ask, what about Plaid+. By letting the cat out of the bag beforehand, Thursday can focus on the good stuff.

You don’t want people to be disappointed about no 4680 cells on the day too, so better suppress that rumor in the bud. “All” that is left for Thursday are pleasant surprises.
 
I slept on it and thought about it.
Yes the plus is cancelled.
Elon says the plaid is too good. Let’s say 450mi range optimistically.

so won’t the next reiteration of the regular “plaid” have 500-mi or so range? They don’t call it a plaid plus but just the 2024 plaid? That’s when plaid plus would’ve came out anyway.

I agree : why sell 2versions when plaid is so good?
Tesla is in iphone mode, you get the new one because it is so much better, not because your current one is broken. Apple never releases the 14 specs at the same time as the 13. Hopefully we are getting 13.5 on Thursday and 15 in two years.
 
I honestly couldn't care less about plaid or plaid+. I know that some people here have ordered them, but hey, we are investors, we are likely in the top 10% (or 1%) financially. Thinking as an investor (not a plaid customer) lets remember that:
  • 99% of tesla's potential customers have never heard of the plaid or the plaid+
  • 99% of tesla's potential customers cannot afford either
  • 99% of people couldn't tell the difference performance wise between the P100D ludicrous and the plaid, let alone plaid+.
Teslas future is in average or low cost cars. It has to be, as thats the mission. Getting a few thousand multi-millionaires to swap their Lamborghini for Teslas is great for bragging rights, but useless for reducing emissions. Those cars are not exactly daily drivers.

I know 'halo effect' and all that, but for crying out loud, my 2015 85D model S is considered *stupidly fast* by absolutely everyone I've ever given a ride. Tesla already have the 'our cars are insanely high performance' branding absolutely locked down. Nobody is swapping from a model 3 to a Nissan leaf because the plaid+ got cancelled.

TL;DR: Plaid+ or no, it makes absolutely diddly-squat difference to the company valuation.