Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVMeister]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1410247476972511241

I wonder how far ahead of everything else the Model Y will be by the end of the year.

 

[st_lopes]

It has been a long time since I audited public companies as a Big 8 public accountant (now 4?) but can't any China production info be gleaned from the "Segment and information about geographic areas" foot note when read in conjunction with other foot notes? I remember many a disclosure checklist item was satisfied with "can be derived" meaning the info was in the statements but the reader had to pull it together. It would seem to me that car production and sales in the US and China by Model/price point is significant to the financial statement users?

Tesla’s geographic disclosure is limited to revenue in US, China, and Other and assets in US and International. Not a huge amount of help in deriving P&D by region given revenue isn’t broken down by business segment.

Quite a bit of subjectivity goes in to deciding what segment reporting is required https://www2.deloitte.com/content/d...ers-a-roadmap-to-segment-reporting.pdf#page20

Same way that many large tech don’t fully disclose their different revenue sources (often aggregated - think Microsoft not disclosing Azure separate from Office 365 which went from being a physical disk sale to a “web service” because it’s downloadable - or Google with core business and “other bets”).

It generally comes down to how management actually runs the business. If Tesla ultimately isn’t operating China fairly autonomously at the business segment level from rest of business they may have rationale to not segment disclose beyond just total geography revenue.

 

[MABMAB]

Test rides in model y? Another forum I read someone was to schedule a test ride for this weekend, now says they cant even schedule one until September. I am waiting for follow up on this. Has anyone here have recent test ride experience that they can comment on? Anyone willing to call tesla to try and schedule one? If true, it would be bullish as fantabulous! Edit add: I just tried to schedule one but it is all done online and have to wait for a phone call. Perhaps that other person wanted a ride but did not know how far out it would be?

 

[Radish11]

Does anyone know who all Tesla sells emissions credits to

 

[FireMedic]

Lovely! Three questions:
- are they using the same tail-lamps as the pre-Plaid, I.e. individual LEDs rather than the contiguous style of 3XY?
- did they change the trunk closing tone to a pleasant chime, like the MX, rather than the nasty beep?
- the brake callipers are painted whiny black, in the same manner as the previous performance red capers?

Cheers

Man… I really should’ve checked with you all before I went for my test drive/visit with my buddy to see what questions you’d have.

To be honest I didn’t notice a chime or tone to the tailgate.

The brake calipers appeared to be painted but I didn’t inspect them very closely. They’re certainly not the same matte finish as my model X. But whether they’re painted or anodized is unknown to me.

As far as the brake lights… I didn’t watch the car drive; I drove the model S with my buddy and my kids, his wife followed with their sons in my ‘20 model X (they really liked the falcon doors); she whispered to me as I was leaving that she wanted to buy him a model X for his birthday! (He bought her the model S for her birthday).

If I had one complaint it would be the abscence of the self closing doors. I really like that feature on our model X.

This non plaid S seems nearly as quick as our ‘20 model 3 perf.

Cheetah/launch mode was very cool but didn’t seem to add too much quickness (TBF; SOC was only about 50%)

All in all; I was very impressed and I look forward to seeing the refreshed X. They’re really happy I convinced them to wait (they placed the order in November of last year).

 

[MXWing]

Any type of "miss" would certainly put the 50 day MA as support in play. Seeing as the mid-BB the 50 and 200 DMA are all mushed together anywhere from the mid 630s to the mid 620s would be a good buy point if the same old tired FUD is being used and they manage to drive down the SP. As the Accountant has already informed us with his excellent work, there is a good chance of a "miss" on the P and D but blowout numbers for earnings which gives people in the know a chance to benefit from the information asymmetry.

All the best!

View attachment 679846

I'm way more bullish than 620 and even 630 on a miss. Smart money will understand the margin implications on the top and bottom line beat with Tesla's better operating leverage and S Margins.

I'll be selling 640s or ATM puts (whatever number is higher) no matter what the share price is on Friday.

I think a huge mistake that Tesla TRADERS... **NOT** investors make is they think Tesla and TSLA always align. They don't. Tesla can chart its own course. TSLA can be pushed around by headwinds, tailwinds, FUD, macros, etc.

Investors who just keep adding, averaging in on dips should care less what happens at P/D and earnings.

Even under 700 is easy accumulation territory for the next leg up. ~ S&P Inclusion price is a long term floor.

 

[printf42]

Does anyone know who all Tesla sells emissions credits to

The whole industry, Tesla is the only net producer of credits, and the rest of the industry will be needing credits for a loooong time.

So it doesn’t really matter which OEM does or doesn’t need credits for any given year. If one buy less that means they are selling less to others, and that others would need to turn to Tesla for rescue.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Can't remember in whose tweet I saw it split per model but can someone confirm that the 201k 'consensus' includes 6k of S/X? Cause that means the 'real consensus' should be 196k at most.

No serious analyst can believe that there will be 6k model X/S deliveries in Q2.

 

[JustSaying]

Tesla’s geographic disclosure is limited to revenue in US, China, and Other and assets in US and International. Not a huge amount of help in deriving P&D by region given revenue isn’t broken down by business segment.

View attachment 679853
Quite a bit of subjectivity goes in to deciding what segment reporting is required https://www2.deloitte.com/content/d...ers-a-roadmap-to-segment-reporting.pdf#page20

Same way that many large tech don’t fully disclose their different revenue sources (often aggregated - think Microsoft not disclosing Azure separate from Office 365 which went from being a physical disk sale to a “web service” because it’s downloadable - or Google with core business and “other bets”).

It generally comes down to how management actually runs the business. If Tesla ultimately isn’t operating China fairly autonomously at the business segment level from rest of business they may have rationale to not segment disclose beyond just total geography revenue.

Agreed and with Energy Generation and storage revenues at 5% of the Q1 totals we have the answer that the segment, at this time, is not material to the analysis(except from the the loss). Does Tesla have any of these projects in China or in US and Other? My quess is they are all in US and "Other".
"Management and Discussion analysis' is an "integeral part of the financials"

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Man… I really should’ve checked with you all before I went for my test drive/visit with my buddy to see what questions you’d have.

To be honest I didn’t notice a chime or tone to the tailgate.

The brake calipers appeared to be painted but I didn’t inspect them very closely. They’re certainly not the same matte finish as my model X. But whether they’re painted or anodized is unknown to me.

As far as the brake lights… I didn’t watch the car drive; I drove the model S with my buddy and my kids, his wife followed with their sons in my ‘20 model X (they really liked the falcon doors); she whispered to me as I was leaving that she wanted to buy him a model X for his birthday! (He bought her the model S for her birthday).

If I had one complaint it would be the abscence of the self closing doors. I really like that feature on our model X.

This non plaid S seems nearly as quick as our ‘20 model 3 perf.

Cheetah/launch mode was very cool but didn’t seem to add too much quickness (TBF; SOC was only about 50%)

All in all; I was very impressed and I look forward to seeing the refreshed X. They’re really happy I convinced them to wait (they placed the order in November of last year).

she whispered to me as I was leaving that she wanted to buy him a model X for his birthday! (He bought her the model S for her birthday).

First world problems....

 

[The Accountant]

Can't remember in whose tweet I saw it split per model but can someone confirm that the 201k 'consensus' includes 6k of S/X? Cause that means the 'real consensus' should be 196k at most.

No serious analyst can believe that there will be 6k model X/S deliveries in Q2.

Troy published the analysts consensus...they do have 6,697 deliveries for Model S/X.

 

[gabeincal]

Troy published the analysts consensus...they do have 6,697 deliveries for Model S/X.
View attachment 679862

My estimate on S/X is 350. This is based on visuals every week (incl. today) over the factory and social media. I hope I'm really wrong.

 

[Radish11]

My estimate on S/X is 350. This is based on visuals every week (incl. today) over the factory and social media. I hope I'm really wrong.

I could be wrong but judging from the activity in the Model S delivery thread I would say substantially more than 350, probably at least a couple thousand. Should be 0 Deliveries of the model X though

 

[Duffer]

Journalism and trust.

Agreed.

That is until the revenue generated by "clickbait" and advertising became the focus of the news entertainment industry.

 

[thx1139]

Troy published the analysts consensus...they do have 6,697 deliveries for Model S/X.
View attachment 679862

Analysts arent worth crap if they dont understand the state of the S/X in Q2.

 

[Thekiwi]

A reminder that there is a possibility that a MIC Model Y SR variant is announced tomorrow as well as RHD models, which potentially means a lot more countries in APAC get the model Y. This comes from the finding of model y models in Hong Kong customs website which are listed as applying from July 2nd - which is July 1st US time.

 

[OrthoSurg]

I paid 43k for my Model 3 including incentives
In less than 1h on Facebook Marketplace, someone came to buy it for 42k.

can’t believe my 2019 SR Model 3 lost $1000 in value after 2 years and 45,000 kilometres.

the guy did not want to wait till September to get one from Tesla, he had just graduated and wanted to go in a road trip in a Tesla.
Now waiting for the 2nd Model Y for my wife and cybertruck.
Used Teslas are selling faster than hotcakes.
I have never been so bullish since I started investing in 2012.

 

[Carl Raymond]

I think this is an excellent read on the hydrogen lobby and faux rationale.

Liebreich: ‘Oil sector is lobbying for inefficient hydrogen cars because it wants to delay electrification’

Influential analyst and adviser explains why powering cars with H2 is a terrible idea, no matter what the hydrocarbons industry says

www.rechargenews.com

Yes, recommended reading for anybody wishing to hone their hydrogen BS detectors. Liebreich knows his stuff.

Key points…

There are use cases for hydrogen. Cars are not one of them. Wherever electricity or batteries can do the job efficiently, there’s no place for inefficient hydrogen. The electricity network exists. The hydrogen network does not.

Heat pumps are several times more efficient than gas heating, kilowatt for kilowatt.

Beware of people who talk green hydrogen for new use cases but have no plans to phase out grey hydrogen in existing use cases.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I paid 43k for my Model 3 including incentives
In less than 1h on Facebook Marketplace, someone came to buy it for 42k.

can’t believe my 2019 SR Model 3 lost $1000 in value after 2 years and 45,000 kilometres.

the guy did not want to way till September to get one from Tesla, he had just graduated and wanted to go in a road trip in a Tesla.
Now waiting for the 2nd Model Y for my wife and cybertruck.
Used Teslas are selling faster than hotcakes.
I have never been so bullish since I started investing in 2012.

The advantage of being production constrained. May It last forever.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Looks like it might require a "simultaneous equation." But with a $12.5 million audit fee that's part of what Pricewaterhouse gets paid for...

If Tesla is indeed shipping ~8K cars from Shanghai (instead of delivering them local)in the final month of the quarter, doesn't that constitute prima facie evidence to auditors that Tesla now "is more likely than not to be profitable" on an ongoing basis?

The end of "the wave" should rightly herald the declaration of the Valuation Allowance (VA).

There's now ~$2.8B in that pool of "Net Operating Loss Carryforward". That'll leave a mark on the books.

Paging @The Accountant

Cheers!