Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[goinfraftw]

Everybody wants to be an "insider" these days and get paid for it. I remember the first week ValueAnalyst showed up here and said he was looking to learn everything possible from this board so he could then monetize it. So annoying.

Obviously not all "insiders" or "analysts" are as annoying as VA, but it's best to just draw a hard line and not allow any uninvited self-linking whatsoever.

Agree with you on that!

Also, I have a blog that barely anyone reads, except some bots, on FIRE retirement and other stuff - even after constantly spamming my whatsapp groups and social media channels. Does anyone want me to link to that?

 

[Singuy]

You are not factually incorrect, that there is still work to be done. And that will be true for the next 20 years. There will be a scenario that it will find difficult and disengage. This is the difference between someone who is perennially unsatisfied with anything, a Debbie downer who fails to see progress - and - someone who with a positive outlooks that says, 'hey this can drive me around in 50% of my routes and the rest I will drive (for now)'.

5 months ago there was NO car anywhere in the world that customers can buy that will drive itself and take right and left turns, go around roundabouts, go around double parked cars, get into the parking lot and stop in front of the destination. Today we have one that does that for most straightforward situations but struggles in many road conditions that are congested, poor visibility (for turns), confusing lane markers, incorrect map data etc.. Sure but if it works for 50% of my trips with the hope that the other 50% will gradually work over next several months and years) - that is HUGE plus. For those in NYC and downtown SF, that is probably only 30% of the routes that work. For those in Dallas, San Antonio, Phoenix and many many other sprawling cities and suburbs that ratio is much higher. Maybe as high as 70%.

Anyone that can't see this as a great progress that is useful for many people in many situations today, need to get a reality check.

I have seen this same whining when AP was first introduced. Oh, it can't do this, it can't do that. But AP even in its first iteration was a great life saver on long slow highway commutes. It was God send for people like me who sat on traffic one hour each way, everyday.

I also feel it's important to distinguish chance of 100% intervention free drives and percentage of correct drivable behavior. Correct drivable behavior is way over 99% given the complexity of the world. Just calculated the amount of miles you drive on a straight line vs the miles you drove in an unprotected left turn with partial view through a bend. That's like 0.0001% of the total miles of the drive. However that few feet of mistake drops chance of no intervention down to zero for the total drive.

I think people gets confused when talking about march of 9s (which is the constant fix for those few feet of challenging situations) vs chances of having 0 interventions to a particular location.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Agree with you on that!

Also, I have a blog that barely anyone reads, except some bots, on FIRE retirement and other stuff - even after constantly spamming my whatsapp groups and social media channels. Does anyone want me to link to that?

I've been building a residential solar platform for quite a while and am about to push the 'go' button on it. Sure hope I don't turn hypocrite in a few weeks! My plan is contact administrators here and then post in a more appropriate thread/forum that's clearly for 3rd party promotion.

So what's this you say about fire retirement? Googling........

 

[JRP3]

You are not factually incorrect, that there is still work to be done. And that will be true for the next 20 years. There will be a scenario that it will find difficult and disengage.

So that means Elon is entirely wrong and we won't see FSD for 20 years or more. Robo taxis don't work with 50% disengagements, or even 99%.

 

[dww12]

Good feedack. I did not account for those savings. The $50 comes out to $10m in savings; not a small sum.

I have no idea how much a radar costs, but removing it saves not only on the radar but the space in the plant where the radar is installed, the time to install it and the risk to cover it later if it breaks. $50 sounds like a minimum and it is forever.

 

[lascavarian]

I have no idea how much a radar costs, but removing it saves not only on the radar but the space in the plant where the radar is installed, the time to install it and the risk to cover it later if it breaks. $50 sounds like a minimum and it is forever.

Imagine how much could be saved if the steering wheel was simply cut in half! It just a yoke.

 

[wipster]

Now that's a nice way to finish a Monday!

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

A day like this is not complete without the contribution of Curt's overture.

Paging @Curt Renz

 

[M|S|M MYP]

And that is significant because.......

 

[Mr X]

Now that's a nice way to finish a Monday!

Sure is. Now time for some neural net training on some backroads

 

[Snerruc]

So that means Elon is entirely wrong and we won't see FSD for 20 years or more. Robo taxis don't work with 50% disengagements, or even 99%.

No, Elon isn’t entirely wrong. He has said that he now understands that at least partially solving AI is necessary for autonomous driving. That certainly is correct, and Tesla can utilize that in ways we can only speculate about. Another positive for the company.

 

[Carl Raymond]

You are not factually incorrect, that there is still work to be done. And that will be true for the next 20 years. There will be a scenario that it will find difficult and disengage. This is the difference between someone who is perennially unsatisfied with anything, a Debbie downer who fails to see progress - and - someone who with a positive outlooks that says, 'hey this can drive me around in 50% of my routes and the rest I will drive (for now)'.

5 months ago there was NO car anywhere in the world that customers can buy that will drive itself and take right and left turns, go around roundabouts, go around double parked cars, get into the parking lot and stop in front of the destination. Today we have one that does that for most straightforward situations but struggles in many road conditions that are congested, poor visibility (for turns), confusing lane markers, incorrect map data etc.. Sure but if it works for 50% of my trips with the hope that the other 50% will gradually work over next several months and years) - that is HUGE plus. For those in NYC and downtown SF, that is probably only 30% of the routes that work. For those in Dallas, San Antonio, Phoenix and many many other sprawling cities and suburbs that ratio is much higher. Maybe as high as 70%.

Anyone that can't see this as a great progress that is useful for many people in many situations today, need to get a reality check.

I have seen this same whining when AP was first introduced. Oh, it can't do this, it can't do that. But AP even in its first iteration was a great life saver on long slow highway commutes. It was God send for people like me who sat on traffic one hour each way, everyday.

Are you ruling out robotaxis for 20 years in the opening para I.e. no Kathy Woods’ bull case. Or is there a way it can disengage safely, with passengers and no driver?

 

[traxila]

For those who want the WSJ version of what happened in court today, see link below.

The article appears fair overall and made it clear that the chances of Musk losing seem slim.

Elon Musk Defends SolarCity Deal, Says of Being Tesla Boss: ‘I Rather Hate It’

Plaintiffs have alleged that the billionaire entrepreneur led Tesla to overpay for the home-solar company in 2016.

www.wsj.com

 

[Singuy]

For those who want the WSJ version of what happened in court today, see link below.

The article appears fair overall and made it clear that the chances of Musk losing seem slim.

Elon Musk Defends SolarCity Deal, Says of Being Tesla Boss: ‘I Rather Hate It’

Plaintiffs have alleged that the billionaire entrepreneur led Tesla to overpay for the home-solar company in 2016.

www.wsj.com

Musk already lost, by taking time out of his busy schedule answering BS questions about how this decision was a bail out which hurt shareholders..hahahaha as I look at my balance of Tsla.

 

[Unpilot]

When the plaintiffs lose will they have to pay court cost's to EM and Tesla?

 

[MP3Mike]

When the plaintiffs lose will they have to pay court cost's to EM and Tesla?

If they did, they would just use part of the $60M settlement they got from the rest of the board. (That insurance paid for.)

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Musk already lost, by taking time out of his busy schedule answering BS questions about how this decision was a bail out which hurt shareholders..hahahaha as I look at my balance of Tsla.

I think Elon would remind you that freedom isn't free. He seems to treat these guys as the unimaginative scum they are, but he deeply respects our court system. As unpleasant as it might be.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

If they did, they would just use part of the $60M settlement they got from the rest of the board. (That insurance paid for.)

Was this the case where Elon offered to pay for the other boardmembers if they didn't settle, in case they lost, but the insurance company still insisted it was safer to just pay?

 

[MP3Mike]

Was this the case where Elon offered to pay for the other boardmembers if they didn't settle, in case they lost, but the insurance company still insisted it was safer to just pay?

I don't recall him making that offer. What I remember is that after the board members settled, for which the insurance paid, Elon fired the insurance company and is self-insuring the board. (I assume he did that so that he would never have the insurance convivence the board members to settle in the future.)

 

[mrdoubleb]

For those who want the WSJ version of what happened in court today, see link below.

The article appears fair overall and made it clear that the chances of Musk losing seem slim.

Elon Musk Defends SolarCity Deal, Says of Being Tesla Boss: ‘I Rather Hate It’

Plaintiffs have alleged that the billionaire entrepreneur led Tesla to overpay for the home-solar company in 2016.

www.wsj.com

Well, I would not call it "fair overall". Consider this part:

To explain the behavior, Mr. Musk told the court he didn’t respect Mr. Baron because the lawyer had once worked at a law firm whose partners became engulfed in an ethics scandal. “I think you are a bad human being,” Mr. Musk said to Mr. Baron.

I mean that's one way to describe it if you want minimize his comments as some cheap stab at the lawyer's past. In reality, though, if you dig up the stories Elon was referring to, as I am sure someone like the WSJ should do as a reputable news organization, you will find that:

• The first company Baron was working for Milberg Weiss: the two name partners got sentenced to jail after a court has found that through their 150 cases, they have earned 216 million dollars by paying 11 million in bribes to witnesses and experts. they have also laundered 44 million bucks and were found guilty in 3x mail fraud.
• Then our good friend went to work for another company, Robbins Geller, where later on, the partners got jailed and as recently as this May, that company was thrown off a case by a court after it found the law firm failed to disclose their class action clients were actually shorting the company they were suing.

So yeah, that is the work history of our standup citizen, Mr. Randy Baron here - I am sure this is just a coincidence, bad choice of law firms in a difficult jobs market, he is a decent guy. So it is perfectly fair to refer to this as "he has once worked for a firm where there were some shady people".