Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[sundaymorning]

It’s been over a year (maybe a year and a half) since I’ve been on this forum, since FC and others left I thought I would never come back, you gals and girls won’t hear from me again for awhile but I want to stop by and put this in print—i wouldn’t sell a share if I were you! We were in the $700s range last quarter when the media FUD surrounding Tesla sales in China hit peak fear, that same FUD won’t work this quarter, you want to know why? Model Y….


With the introduction of the lower variant, model y demand is expected to be through the roof, 2nd half of this year will be great! It’s not by accident that we find ourselves testing $700s again; with news of China demand being this insane for the Y I think we’ll break $700 by earnings. Make no mistake about it, the latest jump was based on what China did recently to the Model Y/China. Next time you hear nonsense from media reports of poor China sales, just take a hard look at what’s happening in the USA, Tesla is taking over, drive to any China town in the US and you’ll see that Chinese Americans here love Tesla, and guess what? the Chinese market is 3 times as large…

Let’s face it, Chinese folks love money, and do you know what they love more than making money—-saving it… people know a banging deal when they see one. It’s time Tesla puts pressure on NIO Xpeng and others, imagine if Model Y price drops another $2k when Tesla decides to pull that demand lever, (you know they can). Aside from Model Y, Tesla has another demand lever that can take the company to the stratosphere: Cybertruck. It’s coming, whether in December or January makes little difference to me, it’s a meteoric demand lever. Just sit back and enjoy your tesquila. Don’t be foolish, you know their games, don’t let them win, don’t let this opportunity pass you by.

see you guys/gals next year. Off to reading FC Twitter regarding Tesla news.

 

[SebastianR]

I'm not sure its entirely wasted. If the public outcome of the case states clearly, with elon on steps of a courthouse, that he won the case, then that permanently shuts up 99% of people who would bring up solarcity as a strike against him, and against tesla.

I like your sense of optimism... ;-) SP multiplied many times since solar city (those were the good old days - I have made a decent amount of money then and since..) and yet the case exists. If they lose this case, they will try other avenues and people who blindly hate Tesla/Elon will not be deterred to keep shouting nonsense no matter what.

 

[Tslynk67]

How many days is Elon expected to spend (having to waste) his time in court this week?

Think of it as a vacation, some well earned R&R...

 

[lascavarian]

Think of it as a vacation, some well earned R&R...

It amusing when EM has more or less equal holdings in both SC and TSLA (in the court case) then he tweets about chairs being equal. He sees metaphors all around him. Father and son in equal chairs is as TSLA and SC in equal shares.

 

[OrthoSurg]

How many friends/family have you guys successfully convinced to buy a significant amount of TSLA before the run up?(cost basis 65 dollars or less)? My track record is zero. I have successfully convinced my friends to put 5 figures into AMD, MTCH and Fiverr no problem. Not one person went for TSLA. Getting them to buy a share or two doesn't count. Like truly convinced.

A coworker bought 26 shares
then bought a 1.2M house
then a 850k country house
then 300k in renovations

all this time while I kept adding shares.

I convinced 2 others to buy, they saw me as an early investor/gambler and than jumped in when the first run up happened. One sold too early. He bought at 850 and sold at 600 to repurchase at 400, it never happened. He has closed his online platform and gave all his money to his financial advisor

 

[UncaNed]

How many friends/family have you guys successfully convinced to buy a significant amount of TSLA before the run up?(cost basis 65 dollars or less)? My track record is zero. I have successfully convinced my friends to put 5 figures into AMD, MTCH and Fiverr no problem. Not one person went for TSLA. Getting them to buy a share or two doesn't count. Like truly convinced.

I consider it a duty to try. I convinced one friend to move his complete S&P500 investment into TSLA instead. He's happy he did.

And 5 others to open brokerage a counts who had none, and are now glad they have a little (some have a lot) of TSLA.

All understand why I extoll the virtues of owning TSLA.

Likewise I feel a duty to recommend they give back to Tesla by buying a Tesla car with their winnings, one of them surely will soon, and I ordered a plaid X so I can trade my X75D down to the less fortunate.

 

[Mengy]

How many friends/family have you guys successfully convinced to buy a significant amount of TSLA before the run up?(cost basis 65 dollars or less)? My track record is zero. I have successfully convinced my friends to put 5 figures into AMD, MTCH and Fiverr no problem. Not one person went for TSLA. Getting them to buy a share or two doesn't count. Like truly convinced.

I tried to convince many of my friends years ago to invest in Tesla, none of them listened or believed me. Every one of them has now admitted to me how sorry they are that they didn't listen, yet they still aren't investing in TSLA so I've given up trying to convince them.

My brother did though. He never had a lot to invest but he did buy some shares back in early 2019 and then he managed to buy a lot more shares perfectly timed at the bottom of the Covid dip in late March 2020. Most of his shares are in his IRA. He isn't a millionaire yet but by the time he reaches 60 years old he'll likely be a multi millionaire, and he'll probably retire well before he is 60 thanks to Tesla. He also has a Cybertruck on order!

 

[hobbes]

It’s been over a year (maybe a year and a half) since I’ve been on this forum, since FC and others left I thought I would never come back, you gals and girls won’t hear from me again for awhile but I want to stop by and put this in print—i wouldn’t sell a share if I were you! We were in the $700s range last quarter when the media FUD surrounding Tesla sales in China hit peak fear, that same FUD won’t work this quarter, you want to know why? Model Y….


With the introduction of the lower variant, model y demand is expected to be through the roof, 2nd half of this year will be great! It’s not by accident that we find ourselves testing $700s again; with news of China demand being this insane for the Y I think we’ll break $700 by earnings. Make no mistake about it, the latest jump was based on what China did recently to the Model Y/China. Next time you hear nonsense from media reports of poor China sales, just take a hard look at what’s happening in the USA, Tesla is taking over, drive to any China town in the US and you’ll see that Chinese Americans here love Tesla, and guess what? the Chinese market is 3 times as large…

Let’s face it, Chinese folks love money, and do you know what they love more than making money—-saving it… people know a banging deal when they see one. It’s time Tesla puts pressure on NIO Xpeng and others, imagine if Model Y price drops another $2k when Tesla decides to pull that demand lever, (you know they can). Aside from Model Y, Tesla has another demand lever that can take the company to the stratosphere: Cybertruck. It’s coming, whether in December or January makes little difference to me, it’s a meteoric demand lever. Just sit back and enjoy your tesquila. Don’t be foolish, you know their games, don’t let them win, don’t let this opportunity pass you by.

see you guys/gals next year. Off to reading FC Twitter regarding Tesla news.

You´re only getting a helpful rating from me because you are not staying !

 

[CHGolferJim]

In general, I don’t talk about money with most of my friends and family, but there are 5 or 6 I’ve nudged:

• One is a very astute corporate finance guy who manages his own 100%-equities portfolio, but he can’t get past TSLA’s P/E ratio “issue”. My response that I missed Google, Apple and several others for that reason and will not make the same mistake again with TSLA seems to have fallen on deaf ears. He has congratulated me for what he assumes I’ve done, but has no idea of the scale (certainly well below many on this thread). He’s also increasingly right wing and seems ideologically opposed to EVs.
• Another friend dabbles, goes in and out sort of like Gary Black, but probably a fairly small position.
• Another guy is into disruption investment, bought a 3 in 2018 and owns probably a few hundred shares.
• A friend (CPA) needs to read The Accountant!
• Several friends and family just aren’t that interested in investing, and consign themselves to low-risk/low-return savings plans.
• Thankfully my wife gives me free rein on investments — she’s not that interested in cars, or the daily grind of investing. Good thing it has worked out!
• My financial advisor/custodian had classic diversification reservations, but recently admitted his earlier approach did not fully appreciate high growth companies, and seems to have modified client strategies accordingly. Surely, in my case, the TSLA returns have driven his fees up more than his selections have.
• Not aware that anyone I’ve talked to about TSLA (probably incessantly) have hit home runs.

 

[Words of HABIT]

I don't think he will. Not anytime soon.

His ticket is a call option he can exercise when it makes sense.

Which is probably never.

Exactly. Richard Branson and Elon Musk are good friends. You don't show up to a visit without a bottle of wine reservation on VG Unity space fllght. It was done as a courtesy. In turn Richard stated he would take flight on one of SpaceX flights. With no intent to diminish Ricard Branson and VG, there is a big difference in taking an hour flight to the edge of space and taking days long outer space travel. I'm guessing neither invitation will come to fruition, although Richard and Elon respect each other for their efforts and accomplishments. Good on them.

 

[UncaNed]

How many friends/family have you guys successfully convinced to buy a significant amount of TSLA before the run up?(cost basis 65 dollars or less)? My track record is zero. I have successfully convinced my friends to put 5 figures into AMD, MTCH and Fiverr no problem. Not one person went for TSLA. Getting them to buy a share or two doesn't count. Like truly convinced.

If you can't convince them by getting them to Google "Tesla Stock Price" and then select the "5Y" or "Max" options, then nothing will. I also extoll the virtue of LEAPS rather strongly; they've all gotten into TSLA LEAPS and fortunately the timing resulted in a positive experience for them so far...

On another topic, I was almost considering signing up for a ride on the Branson space flight, but the environmental toll IMHO makes doing so morally unacceptable.

 

[Unpilot]

I have probably convinced no one.
They all are tired of my endless cheerleading.

When one talks nonstop about the greatest company of our time....one is perceived as a boor.

But I keep trying

 

[UkNorthampton]

UK Tesla competition discounts plus some ICE for context.
ID3 19.5% to 20.5%
ID4 9.5%
Ipace 8%
E208 & 2008 17%
Etron 3-16%

ICE generally LESS discount

Spoiler: Details

 

[Pezpunk]

Although I had -- and continue to have -- very strong beliefs about what a great investment Tesla stock is, and I am happy to gush about what a great car mine's been and how well-positioned the company is, and I continue to store a huge percentage of my net worth in the stock, I stop short of telling people what to do with their money. Even friends and family. I'm just not comfortable doing that.

The only exception was in January 2019. I wrote an email to my brother telling him if he had any spare cash lying around (i knew he had a bunch), he should strongly consider buying some $TSLA. I told him it could double in the next year or two, and i laid out a case why that would happen. He wrote back saying "ok, i'll probably put a hundred thousand or so into it". The stock at the time was at about $60 (split-adjusted). That $100k would be worth more than a million within 2 years.

Unfortunately, he never got around to doing so.

(He is getting a Model S this fall though)

 

[jbcarioca]

I convinced my brother, my best friend (since childhood), my brother-in-law and my wife's cousin to get in TSLA when the stock was at $80 or lower - right before the run-up........and often had to convince them to HODL along the way. Two of them made 6 figure initial investments. Let's just say I no longer pick up the tab when we go to dinner.

Edit: They often ask, "what other investment opportunities do you recommend?" My response: "None - just Tesla".
Edit 2 - They also ask me what gave me such conviction about Telsa? My response, "TMC" - that's the truth - thank you all !

Did you mention your own valuable contributions? Not least among those is your demonstrated ability to ask really good questions when you don’t know. That itself is very valuable.

 

[H Mak]

One is a very astute corporate finance guy who manages his own 100%-equities portfolio, but he can’t get past TSLA’s P/E ratio “issue”. My response that I missed Google, Apple and several others for that reason and will not make the same mistake again with TSLA seems to have fallen on deaf ears. He has congratulated me for what he assumes I’ve done, but has no idea of the scale (certainly well below many on this thread). He’s also increasingly right wing and seems ideologically opposed to EVs.

Classic "conventional wisdom", which the old fella tells us is often long on convention and short on wisdom

 

[jeewee3000]

About convincing others to invest in TSLA, I only convinced one.

The reason is mainly that I discuss investing rarely with others (except my spouse). I got the idea on TMC: if your "stock tip" turns out great they pat themselves on the back, if your tip loses them money (even temporarily) they hold you partly responsible.

Just sticking to your own investing offers so much more peace of mind than being "the investment advice guy" in your select social circle.

Also, I admit I wasn't always as confident in my investment as I am now. I read up a lot about Elon/Tesla/SpaceX before getting in, and liked what I was reading, but I got in before Model 3 was ever announced (but unfortunately after the runup in 2013) and the stock traded sideways for years. Some part of me always doubted if Tesla would pull off scaling, leaving me as one of many bagholders. After all, the stock had already done really well since IPO.

This is another reason I didn't try to convince others of getting in TSLA: the risk was tangible in my eyes. And I didn't want to have the extra burden of other people.

Only after the 2019-2020 runup, through which I kept HODLing steady as many were calling local top every $100 (pre-split) rise, my TSLA investment proved to be hugely profitable. This gave me enough confidence to talk to some close friends about TSLA and the bull case I'm (still) a believer in, more than ever before.

These friends react in the same way now as I did in 2014-2015: they feel the stock has surged and therefore has little headroom. It will take years for it to grow into its valuation, etc. Most of these people are sitting out currently or getting in with small amounts, thinking they'll dollar cost average in the coming months.

One of them seems convinced and bought in the $400's, $800's and $600's. Currently he's break-even or even slightly underwater, so exactly my position in 2015-2018, but he's HODLing till 2025 at least. I'm confident by then we'll be sharing experiences and contemplating what to do with our gains.

The others, well, they won't be able to say I didn't warn them.

 

[juanmedina]

I convinced my parents to invest and they got in at $100 split adjusted so they have done well but not millions or anything, maybe a million in a few years haha. I tried to convince some of my friends and coworkers and they just made fun of me and attacked me. One guy in particular made a ton of fun of me specially when the stock got cut in half from ($360) $72 to ($180) $36. He made me worried about my investment and question my decision fo investing in Tesla that I didn't double down that time . Lesson learned, never talk to people that you don't really trust about your investments.

 

[Budding]

Goldman Sachs lifted non-GAAP EPS expectations for the second quarter to 94 cents from 84 cents. This is still lower than @The Accountant estimates.

 

[hobbes]

Solar roof tiles seem to keep Elon´s promise to be strong (against baseball-sized hail):