Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UncaNed]

Stock split.....mmmm.....I like stock splits. BUT, I've *really* enjoyed the # of outstanding shares being ~1B (963.33M) so that market cap calculations are SUPER SUPER easy. I'll miss that once they announce....but, I'll deal

I'd love another split too, but let's save it to coincide with other share price boosting events like an earnings report that includes things like unexpected earnings and production from solar, storage and insurance for maximum effect on share price. Preferably coordinated with similar splits by the likes of Apple and Amazon just for good measure.

 

[ammulder]

Q: Tesla team didn't reiterate their 2021 guidance for deliveries. Is that going to happen in the Q2 earnings call?

What’s in it for Tesla to forecast more than 50% growth for 2021? 50% already predicts massive growth, and it’s clear they’re positioned to exceed it. I think they’d have to post a pretty sizable goal to move the needle at this point. Yet, if they said 85% growth or something they just run a risk of missing it due to the unexpected. With delta variant, chip shortages, China FUD, there’s still plenty of possibility for the unexpected.

Next year will be much more interesting, if they manage to line up Austin, Berlin, and the Model X ramps by the end of 2021. But I don’t expect them to forecast 2022 until they have the 2021 numbers locked in, so they can confidently say 50% again, or whatever it may be.

 

[steve3]

Elon has it all.
humanitarian motivation
self learner
genius level IQ
horizontal academic knowledges with micromanaging physics problem solving capacity
entrepreneurial personality
aspergers with the capacity to discard useless players but being socially adapted at the same time
mental strength to turn his father psychological abuse and school bullies into positive strength to endure starting 2 business most likely to fail, managed to resist the mental strain of the 2008 crisis and was willing to sacrifice his whole personal wealth to keep the 2 companies most likely to change mankind for the greater
capacity to endure weeks of extreme workloads

Nikola Tesla and Albert Einstein did not have the entrepreneurial side
Edison did not have the humanitarian side
Oppenheimer is probably the one with the closest capacity to micromanage all the chemistry, physics and integrated mathematics problem as he showed in the Manhattan project as other physicist reported. However the world situation was different.
Von Neumann had the greatest mind of all time to solve unresolved theorem in pure mathematics and probably had the greatest IQ however did not have en engineering side.
Newton was a unable to sustain a daily conversation and Einstein was a great humanitarian , both could go on with multiple days of sleepless nights and work for more than 72hours straight when working on their theorem.

thats why I will put all the money I have available into Musk companies.

I have the luck to be able to endure extreme workload and can subsequently invest everything I am able to make into Musk endeavours. And I am just smart enough to understand that it’s the right thing to do

Modern day renaissance man+…Elonardo

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I watched this slightly cringeful video about driverless cars, new out on youtube:

The interesting thing is that this is a video sponsored by waymo. The youtuber is very popular and lives in Australia, and its clear they flew him to phoenix to make this video. My guess is maybe $50-60k to sponsor the vid.
That the company thinks it needs to do this, when they are only currently viable in one part of one city in one state in one country... instead of hiring better software developers and reducing their need for lidar...

Waymo are so doomed, but it will be a while until the geniuses on wall street see whats obvious to us here. Tesla has no autonomous competition.

 

[Singuy]

What’s in it for Tesla to forecast more than 50% growth for 2021? 50% already predicts massive growth, and it’s clear they’re positioned to exceed it. I think they’d have to post a pretty sizable goal to move the needle at this point. Yet, if they said 85% growth or something they just run a risk of missing it due to the unexpected. With delta variant, chip shortages, China FUD, there’s still plenty of possibility for the unexpected.

Next year will be much more interesting, if they manage to line up Austin, Berlin, and the Model X ramps by the end of 2021. But I don’t expect them to forecast 2022 until they have the 2021 numbers locked in, so they can confidently say 50% again, or whatever it may be.

If you have 74%-100% yoy growth Q1 and Q2 and still stick to 50% growth for the year then it means no growth Q3 and Q4. This is the interpretation from wallstreet so some wording probably needs to be changed or at least be a little more precise for the rest of the guide

 

[goinfraftw]

What’s in it for Tesla to forecast more than 50% growth for 2021? 50% already predicts massive growth, and it’s clear they’re positioned to exceed it. I think they’d have to post a pretty sizable goal to move the needle at this point. Yet, if they said 85% growth or something they just run a risk of missing it due to the unexpected. With delta variant, chip shortages, China FUD, there’s still plenty of possibility for the unexpected.

Next year will be much more interesting, if they manage to line up Austin, Berlin, and the Model X ramps by the end of 2021. But I don’t expect them to forecast 2022 until they have the 2021 numbers locked in, so they can confidently say 50% again, or whatever it may be.

Twilio does a lot of sandbagging in their projections even though thats a no/no because they are high growth and its variable if they will reach their marks confidently as a SaaS business. Ive read Tesla had internal goals much higher than 50% this year in terms of deliveries. SaaS revenue projections and accounting is another beast on its own. Re: deliveries, if you're expecting 75%, as an example, itd be great to know why its only 50%.

If its based on risks outside the control of Tesla like govt permitting for Berlin/Texas and that cant be projected for internally, it'd be nice to for them to at least explain that in the report or earnings call...one long-term investor's perspective.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Probably the most valuable takeaway from the interview personally was the concept of "depth of passion". It matters the depth of passion people have for a product. And this is what TMC helped the most in the early days. I DM'ed a ton of people in 2012 asking for their early Model S ownership experiences, trying to find out how much better they liked the Model S compared to their previous vehicles. If it was only a marginal difference, I probably would have passed on TSLA as an investment. But overwhelmingly people displayed a super high depth of passion for their Teslas. This formed a lot of my confidence to go heavy in.

@DaveT, thanks for your in depth interview with Chris Camillo. Fascinating insight. My favourite quote from Chris is at 23:00 mark....

"...for Retail Investors…the market is not rigged against you, it is rigged for you...the really important things, we actually have a huge advantage over institutional Wall Street, huge. The biggest disadvantage we have is that we don’t believe it, and they don’t want us to believe it. So we don’t actually do as much as we could with our advantage because we are always afraid of that they know something that we don’t."

 

[Dancing Lemur]

Tesla has no autonomous competition.

I don’t know, Mobileye’s prototype looks pretty capable. Clearly they have some engineering talent even if their decisions are different from Tesla (lidar, HD maps). Just because Waymo sucks doesn’t mean there won’t be competition...eventually.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

I don’t know, Mobileye’s prototype looks pretty capable. Clearly they have some engineering talent even if their decisions are different from Tesla (lidar, HD maps). Just because Waymo sucks doesn’t mean there won’t be competition...eventually.

There are many threads in the Autopilot and Autonomous/FSD section of TMC that provide extensive discussion on the relative merits of Waymo, Mobileye and Tesla. Let's not rehash it all here in an investor thread.

 

[MXWing]

Tesla Economist is assuming stronger Gross Margins and lower Operating Costs than the other Forecasters.
I know there have been price increases within the industry but we have seen Tesla deliver strong cost efficiencies in the past.
The $1.19 is within the range of possibilities. Cheering for him to win bragging rights !

View attachment 687978

It's interesting that the LOWER the fact set numbers are, the more enthusiastic and successful we will be. The HIGHER the fact set numbers, the more worry and expectations of a sell off we should have.

Regarding rising costs in Q2, Tesla wouldn't be paying spot prices for COGS. Suppliers would be absorbing most of that due to negotiated contracts.

Q3 and Q4 however would be a different story. Tesla to maintain at least equivalent margins have been rising prices significantly.

Demand should be decreasing from Tesla as prices are rising but the supply is so constrained that price increases have no effect.

S2 is manifested through the sky rocketing prices of the car market, new and used:

 

[ammulder]

If you have 74%-100% yoy growth Q1 and Q2 and still stick to 50% growth for the year then it means no growth Q3 and Q4. This is the interpretation from wallstreet so some wording probably needs to be changed or at least be a little more precise for the rest of the guide

Except the analysts I've heard of with delivery forecasts for 2021 are like 800k-850k... So I don't think anyone on wall street is really expecting "exactly 50%" growth for the year as a whole. If they're dumb enough to think deliveries will be DOWN from both Q1 and Q2 in Q3 and Q4 (like 182k each to come in at 750k for the year), then they're really not paying attention to the auto industry, much less Tesla specifically.

I expect internally Tesla would like to hit 900k without Austin/Berlin, 1M best case if deliveries start from one or both in Q4. But that means averaging over 250k deliveries for Q3 and Q4, which may be doable, but at this point I think is also missable. So why risk overpromising?

 

[imherkimer]

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/typhoon-in-fa-putting-millions-at-risk-in-eastern-china/988150

It appears that flooding and storm surge are quite serious in the Shanghai region .
Tesla factory appears to be in the direction of the storm surge. Apparently ships have been removed from ports.
Any information available regarding current status of risk for Tesla Shanghai operations from typhoon In-fa?

 

[Sofie]

I’m sure this has been discussed here previously but I just read something I thought was interesting. “The expected price per share for Tesla by 2025 could be 4,000$“.
Of course I think it will be worth that, if not more, by 2025 (heck, I think right now TSLA is worth at least double what it is). But as an uber Tesla bull, I see through rose colored glasses.

Any thoughts from friends here on valuation predictions for 2025 (Dependent, I understand, on many factors that must first be realized) ?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/typhoon-in-fa-putting-millions-at-risk-in-eastern-china/988150

It appears that flooding and storm surge are quite serious in the Shanghai region .
Tesla factory appears to be in the direction of the storm surge. Apparently ships have been removed from ports.
Any information available regarding current status of risk for Tesla Shanghai operations from typhoon In-fa?

There’s nothing different/special about this typooon and it’s not a direct hit on Shanghai. In fact this is a pretty pedestrian level typhoon compared to others that have hit the region…..and yet Giga Shanghai is fine afterwards every time

Edit: Not trying to downplay the suffering for some there. But the floods/mudslides/flooding are happening in provinces that are more rural. And it's common practice to move ships out of port whenever any hurricane/typhoon comes through. That's standard procedure.

 

[st_lopes]

I’m sure this has been discussed here previously but I just read something I thought was interesting. “The expected price per share for Tesla by 2025 could be 4,000$“.
Of course I think it will be worth that, if not more, by 2025 (heck, I think right now TSLA is worth at least double what it is). But as an uber Tesla bull, I see through rose colored glasses.

Any thoughts from friends here on valuation predictions for 2025 (Dependent, I understand, on many factors that must first be realized) ?

Suggest you get to know ARKK’s model through 2025 ARK’s Price Target for Tesla in 2025 is $3,000 Per Share

They link to their GitHub in the conclusion where you can re run scenarios based on your own assumptions.

It’s a great exercise in visualizing the impacts of success across different parts of the business and one of the more bullish indicators is that they have $0 from energy, dojo, App Store, or any kind of licensing modeled.

 

[Mengy]

I’m sure this has been discussed here previously but I just read something I thought was interesting. “The expected price per share for Tesla by 2025 could be 4,000$“.
Of course I think it will be worth that, if not more, by 2025 (heck, I think right now TSLA is worth at least double what it is). But as an uber Tesla bull, I see through rose colored glasses.

Any thoughts from friends here on valuation predictions for 2025 (Dependent, I understand, on many factors that must first be realized) ?

I personally don't see $4000 per share by 2025 as any possibility, it's just too high a valuation given 50% growth per year for Tesla IMHO. I feel something more like $1400-$1500 per share by 2025 is much more reasonable given realistic ramping of production and FSD and all that.

Of course I'd love to be too conservative on that though!

 

[CorneliusXX]

Elon stated that GigaAustin is to grow by 500ft over time. I interpret it as the main building growing - but that seems odd given it's a complete factory. Not sure how else to read it?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1419366814371430400

 

[JustMe]

I personally don't see $4000 per share by 2025 as any possibility, it's just too high a valuation given 50% growth per year for Tesla IMHO. I feel something more like $1400-$1500 per share by 2025 is much more reasonable given realistic ramping of production and FSD and all that.

Of course I'd love to be too conservative on that though!

50% annual growth is over 5x by 2025:

2021 = 1
2022 = 1.5
2023 = 2.25
2024 = 3.38
2025 = 5.06

So why not 5x the share price by 2025?
That would be over $3,000 per share. Doesn’t seem like much of a stretch to reach $4k especially as new revenue streams are added

 

[goinfraftw]

I personally don't see $4000 per share by 2025 as any possibility, it's just too high a valuation given 50% growth per year for Tesla IMHO. I feel something more like $1400-$1500 per share by 2025 is much more reasonable given realistic ramping of production and FSD and all that.

Of course I'd love to be too conservative on that though!

It's literally what Tesla is saying and executing on. Just math at this point if you expect the same level of execution now than before.

Tesla (TSLA) announces up to $12 billion investment for electric car and battery factories in just 2 years

Tesla (TSLA) has updated its capital expenditure guidance to confirm a plan to invest up to $12 billion on its...

electrek.co

 

[mongo]

Elon stated that GigaAustin is to grow by 500ft over time. I interpret it as the main building growing - but that seems odd given it's a complete factory. Not sure how else to read it?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1419366814371430400

They could expand the stamping section toward the south, where they removed a detention pond (is that remaining one 500' away). Similar to Shanghai's expansion (though that end was not chamfered).