Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
BTW reddit is blocked by my firewall here and all I see is empty post without even a comment..
He posted several of these the best of which was

j3d8ehig8sd71.jpg


 
The only 2 cars I can see getting over 300 miles range coming soon are the EQS and Lucid, neither are going to be a threat to teslas busines.
I read an initial test of the EQS a couple of days ago (sorry, couldn’t find the link back). It looks like a very nice car, and a serious competitor to the Model S I bought in 2016. But by the time it’s available it will need to compete with the Model S of 2022.
It’s reasonably efficient. Very efficient in city driving, somewhat less impressive in highway driving, which is where you need the efficiency most. They measured 210Wh/km on the highway, which is practically the same as my 2016 S, and 4.4s for 0-100km/h, which is slower than my 2016 S. So their advertised range of 770km will disappoint in real life.
Only Mercedes fans and people with more money than brains will buy it.
 
The credit only good for 200,000 vehicles and that's not even one quarter of Tesla's production and I'm sure Ford has used up a bunch of theirs already.

Ford has barely scratched the surface of their 200K EV's tax credit with the Mach-e. Last I checked they had only used up slightly over 6,000 of 200,000. Maybe it's up to 9,000 by now? And I can't think of any other Ford EV's I'm missing. Anyone?

Unless I'm missing something, at this rate, it will take Ford over 2 years to use up all their Federal Tax Credits. And the credits extend another several months after they finally hit 200K EV's. Even considering this, I don't expect Ford will be releasing any EV's that are actually profitable in the next two years.
 
Ford has barely scratched the surface of their 200K EV's tax credit with the Mach-e. Last I checked they had only used up slightly over 6,000 of 200,000. Maybe it's up to 9,000 by now? And I can't think of any other Ford EV's...
Ford sold the Focus Electric, and the Fusion and CMAX Energi PHEVs for years. So their number is way higher than 6000.
 
Practically everything recovered after hours except for Apple. Google up 3%+, MSFT up 1%, Apple down 1.7%, FB up 1.2%.

I still think Wall St is trying to throw a head fake when it comes to Tech and acting like they're going to sell off Tech when in reality, they're going to turn around next week and push everything higher.
Indeed, fake sector rotation every other day for the moment to spook out the investors and cream the options markets - Hedgies wield way too much power and influence over the markets, if only there was some kind of regulatory body put in place to safeguard against their criminal behaviour 🤷‍♂️
 
Ford has barely scratched the surface of their 200K EV's tax credit with the Mach-e. Last I checked they had only used up slightly over 6,000 of 200,000. Maybe it's up to 9,000 by now? And I can't think of any other Ford EV's I'm missing. Anyone?

Unless I'm missing something, at this rate, it will take Ford over 2 years to use up all their Federal Tax Credits. And the credits extend another several months after they finally hit 200K EV's. Even considering this, I don't expect Ford will be releasing any EV's that are actually profitable in the next two years.

Ford has actually used up most, 141,749, of their credits as of 3/31/2021:

1627454589985.png


(I think their Focus Electric, Fusion Energi, and C-Max Energi qualified for the tax credit.)

But even so, at the rate they are selling they have almost 2 years of credits left. (Though they may burn through them fast with the combination of the Mach-E and the F-150 Lightning.)
 
This place is crazy, I'm taking my ball and going home!

Edit, I can't delete my posts, so I can't take my ball, so I guess I'm just going home! Sorry, but my posts will have to remain.

@cliffski did the exact same thing two days ago, although he actually managed to delete some of his posts. Why is it that when posters who are critical of Tesla get downvotes and pushback, they want to take their ball and leave? Only because other people disagree with what they’re saying? Such pushback can hardly come as a surprise in a thread filled with TSLA investors and Tesla fans. Is it really that much of a problem?

I personally do not mind reading posts from people who do not see everything through rosy glasses. @Singuy and @RobStark are two of my favourite posters because they point out some things that not all uberbulls want to hear, but need to hear. That is very valuable and I would hate to see them leave. They regularly get some downvotes too, but seem to shrug it off. I hope you can do the same and stay.
 
Indeed, fake sector rotation every other day for the moment to spook out the investors and cream the options markets - Hedgies wield way too much power and influence over the markets, if only there was some kind of regulatory body put in place to safeguard against their criminal behaviour 🤷‍♂️
Perhaps something akin to the Secure Meme Commission which roots out bad jokes in case some poorly educated investor is confused by a random tweet?
 
@cliffski did the exact same thing two days ago, although he actually managed to delete some of his posts. Why is it that when posters who are critical of Tesla get downvotes and pushback, they want to take their ball and leave? Only because other people disagree with what they’re saying? Such pushback can hardly come as a surprise in a thread filled with TSLA investors and Tesla fans. Is it really that much of a problem?

I personally do not mind reading posts from people who do not see everything through rosy glasses. @Singuy and @RobStark are two of my favourite posters because they point out some things that not all uberbulls want to hear, but need to hear. That is very valuable and I would hate to see them leave. They regularly get some downvotes too, but seem to shrug it off. I hope you can do the same and remain.

My long standing experience and observations here say that the forum punishes anything that is not group think uber bull positive. Members lambast different thinkers. Discussions do not get elevated to sharpen thought and opinion. Moderators moderate or close off discussion and do so in a manner that reinforces group think. Wordsmiths oft dominate this bar and the drunkards herein enjoy the pseudointellectual flimflam.

It is kind of like working a job. The new person starts, flubs around for a while, tries doing things old ways or the way they think to be right. The social structure chides and goads them into performing as the organization wants and the leaders periodically coach them in the ways. What gets brought forth is yet another automaton with some individual characteristics but overall conformity absent the independence that could help the organization truly change and adapt for the better. Those whose backs can't be broken either end up finding other work elsewhere or are true sociopaths that rise to help run the organization.

It happens so much I've long silently questioned just how much TSLA has its hands on things...
 
Members lambast different thinkers

thinking: "1 + 2 = 3"
"1 + 2 = 12" is not thinking, it is just a BS

There is ZERO backlash against 'waterproof' critique ... even more, it is VERY VERY VERY welcome, as it brings much value. It may not make everyone happy, but is welcome.... and is not even critique but added value.
Please please please tell me what is wrong with the picture that I'm seeing.

But make sure it really is wrong, not just some stupid BS spreading FUD.
 
Last edited:
thinking: "1 + 2 = 3"
"1 + 2 = 12" is not thinking, it is just a BS

There is ZERO backlash against 'waterproof' critique ... even more, it is VERY VERY VERY welcome, as it brings much value. It may not make everyone happy, but is welcome.... and is not even critique but added value.
Please please please tell me what is wrong with the picture that I'm seeing.

But make sure it really is wrong, not just some stupid BS spreading FUD.

So just you get to judge waterproof?
Calling it FUD does not make it so.
My experience is not that such things are welcome and not accepted as value.
And, I'm willing to bet that open discussion of prior moderation is not tolerated...
 
So just you get to judge waterproof?
Calling it FUD does not make it so.
My experience is not that such things are welcome and not accepted as value.
And, I'm willing to bet that open discussion of prior moderation is not tolerated...

Being openly critical about Tesla’s decisions is something completely different than being openly critical about moderators’ decisions. For the first we have this thread, for the second we have PM’s
 
Being openly critical about Tesla’s decisions is something completely different than being openly critical about moderator’s decisions. For the first we have this thread, for the second we have PM’s


The above is just such an example of the downvote group think that goes on here, reinforced by moderators participation in the downvotes. I was openly critical of time wasted on a question that brought nothing of value to the conference call. Professional money managers asked hard hitting questions, but the retail crowd loved that tangent.
 
So just you get to judge waterproof?
Calling it FUD does not make it so.
My experience is not that such things are welcome and not accepted as value.
And, I'm willing to bet that open discussion of prior moderation is not tolerated...
It is better respond with a well reasoned counter argument than a downvote, if the point being made has any potential merit.

Often I find some criticism is laden with incorrect assumptions, and some has merit.
It is preferable to try to correct incorrect assumptions.

Some bullish points also contain rosy assumptions, it is also preferable to try to correct them.
 
Last edited:
>> So just you get to judge waterproof?

Yes.
If you want to tell me I have it wrong, you need to make me understand exactly how and why.
Without that you are demanding I believe you without understanding what you are saying.

FUD.

Yes, but why?
What have you ever changed your mind on?

I've shared my opinion, along with one example of gang up on a different opinion, along with moderator participation in such.
This shuts down participation, reinforces the group think.
 
Okay guys, regardless how you guys feel about the lack of upgrades from analysts, chip shortage issue is the major concern and it didn't help when Tesla spent a good 20% of the call talking about it. It is currently the number 1 question on analysts mind for semiconductor company earning calls.

So a few things to look out for.

NXP semiconductors make a lot of chips for automobiles. Their shortage was due to a lack of wafer supply that started since Q3 of 2020 as automakers fully ramped to pre-pandemic levels. Then mid Feb their Austin plant was shut down due to the winter storm, which exacerbated the problem as they said automobile chips were near empty before the storm hit, so auto sector is hit the hardest. I would read the NXP earnings call transcript posted below.

August 2nd is their next earnings report and you can bet everyone will be grilling them about supply so I would expect major movements on Tsla depending on their conference call and out look. As of now they are expecting tight supply for all of 2021.

Tight supply affects Tesla's growth. Even though they have guided for 2H to have more deliveries, a very tight supply environment doesn't help if Tesla were to double capacity as Berlin/Texas comes online. This doubling of capacity will not happen if they have trouble hitting capacity with 2 factories today due to chip shortages. This is the major reason why analysts are posting softer growth for next year.



Tesla *do* have one advantage over every other car company on this specific issue though. If ford cant get chips vital for a car, they have to sit on their ass. If Tesla cant get the same chip, they can take the batteries destined for that car and stick them in a powerwall, as powerwall demand is insane.
Granted, powerwalls use chips too, but likely totally different ones. Anyway you look at it, having a major component of your product (battery cells) that can flexibly be placed in 2 different markets depending on circumstances is a huge win.

I also think tesla management is flexible enough, and staff motivated enough to be able to take people off an assembly line and stick them in a powerwall line at short notice. Even if they have to bus them to another location each day.

This flexibility is a strategic advantage that wall street analysts rarely mention.