Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

Hey, I just sold some extremely sensible cc730 and lcc750 for next week, playing it cautious on the upside now...

I even went OTM with my puts at 675!

Could buy 200 shares with this week's options gains, has been a most excellent week a few more like this and I can start acquiring shares again instead of stockpiling cash...

First world problems.....Congrats btw!

 

[thx1139]

And Dan Ives said this on March 31 about Q1:
In a recent note, Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives stated that he expects Tesla to deliver 174,000 new vehicles in Q1 2021. Ives expects Tesla to deliver 160,000 Model 3 and Model Y and 14,000 Model S and Model X over the quarter.

14,000 Model S & X when the entire world knew the Fremont lines were down for the Refresh. These guys deal with the big picture but certainly don't get into the details.

It is stuff like this that makes me really think analysts dont pay attention and dont do research. How many of them know what competitors plans are for volume and how they are doing? I bet they would be surprised if you told them that unless things really heat up VW will have a hard time selling 100K ID.4 this year. How many know what Ford plans for Mach-E volume is this year? How about the F150L?

 

[EVMeister]

it has been a longtime since clicking on the 5 day graph of TSLA made me feel good.
Go ahead, go make yourself feel good.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance

Find the latest Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and investing.

finance.yahoo.com

Looking at the 5 year graph always makes me feel good. I'm sure I'll say the same in 5 years time.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Two comments about recent posts, followed by something entirely new and different:

1. Here is a line that the LATimes article used from the Higgins book, presumably as evidence of its profound, revelatory nature:

Tesla’s skirted bankruptcy at least twice. The company would not be alive today without continued infusions of debt and equity.

It appears that no editor either at the publishing company or in the newspaper was competent enough to discern the distinction between salaciousness and the realities of creating a business.

2. The (overly-) long-running posts about “sabotage”: the primary reason I’d not stepped in early on was because I was too busy deciding where the worst place to place my wooden clogs would be. TLDR? Yes: I knew the reference and the moderately humorous joke’s backstory.


Now - something new. I’m not sure where to place this, other than within the “Is someone confused?” File.

A Tesla fan from Down South (ie, somewhere near Anchorage) called me last night with the following. The gentleman delivering the CAT roller for my friend’s project is a 28 year-old half-native orphan (this is important: bear with me) who was about to lower the hydraulics for offloading the roller when my friend heard him whooping and hollering in the cab.

What’s going on?

According to my friend, the youth ecstatically shared “I just got a delivery confirmation for my Cybertruck! It’s coming next September!” My friend then got to talking Tesla with the driver and - well, you can fill in those blanks - and at the end of the conversation, my friend learned that Kiddo has been consistently buying TSLA and now owns 3/4 of a million in it. “Hold on to those shares and keep buying” he told me was his advice to the youth.

To me, one of the trenchant pieces to glean from this is the profile of this Tesla aficionado: someone who grew up in extremely compromised circumstances, and one whose lot in life is to deliver rental machinery. In other words, about as far removed as possible, both geographically and in every other facet, from some Silicon Valley techie.

Second, what is going on? Neither I nor anyone else with a Cybertruck order I’ve heard of has such a delivery notice. Am I wrong? If not, with what could he be confusing the message?

Regardless of the answer to the second, I think the overall story both is important and worthy of sharing with you.

Almost had to give this a 'thumbs down' because we def NEED to know more about the delivery confirmation of the CT! However...i am always thrilled and humbled to hear stories of $TSLA making people who have the foresight to see deep into the future and HODL.

The more important question is did you ask your friend to tell the youth about TMC.....Or did he want to spare him from the insanity he would experience if he joined?

Have a good weekend yall!!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Looking at the 5 year graph always makes me feel good. I'm sure I'll say the same in 5 years time.

When in doubt.....ZOOM OUT!!!

 

[Zero CO2]

While I commented/joked about wise interns I knew there would be a bunch of posts about this.

The 15/20/25-year olds of today are getting way to much credit. They are as smart/stupid/caring or not caring as any other generation. The truth is that all you have to do is to go to a beach that caters mostly to young people or hang around the rest areas outside schools to see that. These kind of places are often left looking like they've never heard of litter bins. While posting on facebook how they are part of the solution to save the planet. Anywhere I've lived has always been the least cleaned up wherever young people hang out. Including when I was young, and it's still the same. All the young relatives trying to get to the south of Europe for vacation this summer? They are not really taking the train. Not everyone might post pictures from the plane since it's uncool right now but they are flying. There are many examples.

Every generation has a small percentage that get attention from media, today that is obviously so much easier as well.

That said, they do seem to have figured out Tesla

gave you a disagree as that is not my experience i have a 23 and a 27 year old and they and their cohort are smarter and a lot more informed about the world than i was when i was in my 20's ... i think we have a shot at fixing climate change as these young people come of age .. they just have orders of magnitude more information than we did at that age (we meaning boomers and gen X even ) ...

i agree with your last sentence 100% even the current tweens and teens love Tesla and Musk lucky for them many will be able to skip ICE altogether ..

 

[MXWing]

Glad this did not happen...but could you imagine the combination of the engineering minds and the marketing geniuses of Apple? Some pretty cool products i reckon would have been made...

View attachment 690017

Apples strategy is to sell .20 cent cables for $20.

Selling 40 hand built Model 3’s in July of 2017 at a loss of 10 million per car is nowhere near close to Apples playbook. (Numbers not exact but you get the idea).

If Apple all stars want to work for Tesla they can apply.

Elon wouldn’t of survived if he was underpunk to some big tech operations guy with no vision.

 

[Krugerrand]

Two comments about recent posts, followed by something entirely new and different:

1. Here is a line that the LATimes article used from the Higgins book, presumably as evidence of its profound, revelatory nature:

Tesla’s skirted bankruptcy at least twice. The company would not be alive today without continued infusions of debt and equity.

It appears that no editor either at the publishing company or in the newspaper was competent enough to discern the distinction between salaciousness and the realities of creating a business.

2. The (overly-) long-running posts about “sabotage”: the primary reason I’d not stepped in early on was because I was too busy deciding where the worst place to place my wooden clogs would be. TLDR? Yes: I knew the reference and the moderately humorous joke’s backstory.


Now - something new. I’m not sure where to place this, other than within the “Is someone confused?” File.

A Tesla fan from Down South (ie, somewhere near Anchorage) called me last night with the following. The gentleman delivering the CAT roller for my friend’s project is a 28 year-old half-native orphan (this is important: bear with me) who was about to lower the hydraulics for offloading the roller when my friend heard him whooping and hollering in the cab.

What’s going on?

According to my friend, the youth ecstatically shared “I just got a delivery confirmation for my Cybertruck! It’s coming next September!” My friend then got to talking Tesla with the driver and - well, you can fill in those blanks - and at the end of the conversation, my friend learned that Kiddo has been consistently buying TSLA and now owns 3/4 of a million in it. “Hold on to those shares and keep buying” he told me was his advice to the youth.

To me, one of the trenchant pieces to glean from this is the profile of this Tesla aficionado: someone who grew up in extremely compromised circumstances, and one whose lot in life is to deliver rental machinery. In other words, about as far removed as possible, both geographically and in every other facet, from some Silicon Valley techie.

Second, what is going on? Neither I nor anyone else with a Cybertruck order I’ve heard of has such a delivery notice. Am I wrong? If not, with what could he be confusing the message?

Regardless of the answer to the second, I think the overall story both is important and worthy of sharing with you.

If he gets his CT before I get mine, I’ll be bringing a DOG roller. Pfft!

 

[UkNorthampton]

It is stuff like this that makes me really think analysts dont pay attention and dont do research. How many of them know what competitors plans are for volume and how they are doing? I bet they would be surprised if you told them that unless things really heat up VW will have a hard time selling 100K ID.4 this year. How many know what Ford plans for Mach-E volume is this year? How about the F150L?

They're no Andrea James or any of Ark's people - I have no idea how an army of wallstreet know-nothings exist

 

[AquaY]

Warning for 2024 Tesla Convertible Bond holders

These bonds convert to Tesla shares in 2024 at a price of $309/share for the face value of the bond = $61/share post split (16.1 shares / $1000 face value).

Tesla is offering to convert these bonds to shares now, but at a large loss to bondholders. My broker's corporate actions team has said that Tesla's terms include their discretion to convert to shares or even cash at a rate of $1000 cash per $1000 bonds (ie losing 90% of the value of the market price of the bonds).

Before learning this, I naively thought Tesla would convert the bonds at the convertible note's rate of 16.1 shares per $1000. Instead, Tesla converted at a rate of ~14 shares / $1000, so I lost 15% of the shares I would have received in 2024, or from just selling the bonds.

My broker's corporate actions team told me they was working with someone else with the convertible bonds. They recently converted a small amount to see what would happen, but they were not happy with the shares received. Due to client confidentiality, I couldn't get more information but I believe they were shortchanged like I was.

Personally, this seems really shady. Converting bonds to shares saves Tesla 2% a year on interest, and they'd have to give up the shares in 2024 anyway. I don't see the justification for converting at a discount and making changes daily. Bond holders believed in Tesla in 2019, providing loans when Tesla needed it the most. Now Tesla is shortchanging them.

Does anyone else have convertible bonds or have converted them after the Tesla split? Let me know if you'd be willing to share your experience, or let me know if you'd like more details.

Very interesting.
It has been my experience over a longtime in the financial sector that when companies offer to convert bonds/stock/ rights/warrants/ whatever it is never at an advantage to the holder to do so.
It is also difficult to figure out exactly what they are offering.
Which they do on purpose I am convinced.
I'm interested in hearing what else you find out.
Good Luck

 

[Remster32]

It is stuff like this that makes me really think analysts dont pay attention and dont do research. How many of them know what competitors plans are for volume and how they are doing? I bet they would be surprised if you told them that unless things really heat up VW will have a hard time selling 100K ID.4 this year. How many know what Ford plans for Mach-E volume is this year? How about the F150L?

They can't pay nearly the same amount of attention that we do because they cover 20+, sometimes 30+ companies at the same time. I am not at all surprised that this board is light years ahead of these Wall Street analysts. Alex Potter at Piper is one exception that I would make that really understands the Tesla story.

 

[AudubonB]

Well, that I’m 280 miles away is one good answer to that question….

I could, though, ask MY friend whether HE saw that.

My friend answers:
”All I saw was a Tesla heading; I didn’t want to nose.”

 

[AudubonB]

Almost had to give this a 'thumbs down' because we def NEED to know more about the delivery confirmation of the CT! However...i am always thrilled and humbled to hear stories of $TSLA making people who have the foresight to see deep into the future and HODL.

The more important question is did you ask your friend to tell the youth about TMC.....Or did he want to spare him from the insanity he would experience if he joined?

Have a good weekend yall!!

Just what sort of sadistic monster do you thi…..

Scratch that. I don’t want to hear.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'll leave it to others to interpret but max pain did go up a bit yesterday. Now att $660.

Indeed. Futher, my experimental 'Call-Put Brkpt' analysis from this morning at 7 EDT indicated a closing SP of 672.50 while the 'Min IV' point was at 677.50 making SP action on Tue/Wed this week a 'rope-a-dope' strategy (with El Gordo being the dope):

In summary, and to quote legendary sea Captain Marco Ramius, "the Soviet Navy does not cancel operations due to bed-wetting".

Cheers!

 

[Nocturnal]

They can't pay nearly the same amount of attention that we do because they cover 20+, sometimes 30+ companies at the same time. I am not at all surprised that this board is light years ahead of these Wall Street analysts. Alex Potter at Piper is one exception that I would make that really understands the Tesla story.

I get the sense that Alex follows Rob's channel very closely.

 

[Artful Dodger]

It's pretty amazing the amount of people who watch and react to what is clearly theater.

Indeed, Kabuki manga flower theatre. We need a Hiro.

 

[2daMoon]

Noticed on Nasdaq's TSLA "Real Time" page how right at 5:00 over half a million shares were traded. Followed by 200K two minutes later.

Nice cherry on top for Friday.

 

[Dancing Lemur]

Unusual Joy for Earnings Week​

This week’s chart shows the usual sell-off immediately after earnings. Then, after a day’s pause to reflect, volume picked up as the big money was buying on Thurs/Fri mornings.

Today’s Afternoon Swoon was cut off by support at $683, then a nice spike to close.

After the weak hands were shaken out Tuesday, there’s no reason that buying won‘t continue to drive up the price next week if the big fish keep biting. When $700 is broken, the momentum traders will hop aboard, too (at least until $750).

The last three painful months we traded (far) below the price going into Q1 earnings, but that’s already not the story this time around. The strength of the first half financials and the logical conclusion if you extrapolate is dawning on a few more folks. Hopefully that provides enough to finally push it Over the Top.

 

[capster]

If he gets his CT before I get mine, I’ll be bringing a DOG roller. Pfft!

Grrrrrr….

edit: A gentle reminder: 27 – Understanding Non-Attachment

 

[Zero CO2]

They can't pay nearly the same amount of attention that we do because they cover 20+, sometimes 30+ companies at the same time. I am not at all surprised that this board is light years ahead of these Wall Street analysts. Alex Potter at Piper is one exception that I would make that really understands the Tesla story.

and it helps that Alex Potter also owns a Tesla ...Model X i believe