Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

Holy crap, how does one company do all of this?

... and how does Elon answer the harder questions on stage while all the smartest people on earth are looking at him? And that's after explaining SpaceX tours. How can anyone person do all of this?

 

[Krugerrand]

Naw, this is good and just about what I was expecting. It's not that the market is underwhelmed, it's just that the market doesn't really understand what Tesla presented. They think FSD is about writing a bunch of 'if' statements in traditional code, whereas those in the know understand that such an approach can't scale to the real world.

The market won't really get it until FSD is closer to completion. But smart investors like us, who see WHY what Tesla presented is important, can take advantage of this to buy in before the rest of the market gets it. It's why you and I who had a lot of TSLA had better % returns the last few years than most of the big investment houses.

Meanwhile, GLJ will continue to wear his suspenders and serve as the financial world's clown, spouting nonsense. He's not smart enough to understand it yet either. It doesn't matter. By the time the rest of the market understands it, it will be too late for them to profit as much from it.

Agree. I went out of my way last night to text the people I know, who listened to me and bought TSLA, to tell them no matter how many shares they have they do not own enough. Buy more.

Buy with impunity has been my tag line for years, it continues to remain.

 

[ktrivedi70]

Naw, this is good and just about what I was expecting. It's not that the market is underwhelmed, it's just that the market doesn't really understand what Tesla presented. They think FSD is about writing a bunch of 'if' statements in traditional code, whereas those in the know understand that such an approach can't scale to the real world.

The market won't really get it until FSD is closer to completion. But smart investors like us, who see WHY what Tesla presented is important, can take advantage of this to buy in before the rest of the market gets it. It's why you and I who had a lot of TSLA had better % returns the last few years than most of the big investment houses.

Meanwhile, GLJ will continue to wear his suspenders and serve as the financial world's clown, spouting nonsense. He's not smart enough to understand it yet either. It doesn't matter. By the time the rest of the market understands it, it will be too late for them to profit as much from it.

You almost wonder if the robot thing at the end was sort of a deliberate distraction for the dummies in the media and Wall Street. Let them focus on that (or mock) and forget about the real meat of the presentation. That gives those with the proper perspective time to buy a little more on the (relative) cheap. Or not,,,,

 

[SOULPEDL]

I thought Elon said they hope to have a prototype some time next year. That's a long way from being something they can sell.

Deposits. I never even saw the Model 3 when I signed up. Sure, deposits aren't big revenue, but if we saw 1M reservations stemming from large corporations looking to save labor costs and start the training ASAP, what do you think the stock would do? I'd personally give more than $1K deposit and accept a Beta unit gladly, I'm in Alpha/Beta land now anyway.

 

[22522]

The non-scary non-dangerous robot criteria conflict with efficiency of motion. Which turns into battery runtime.

I still recall nightmares about a robot spider on Johnny Quest. Centered mass and very light fast limbs use less energy. The complication of the human wrist is likely to get the right combination of speed and strength - not just strength. This says, sort of, efficiency.

If you parrot Elon "control authority" (means leverage but takes you down different thought paths) thinking, and think about the dynamics of moving weight, Popeye forearms can help balance, they have control authority, but they are energy expensive.

To get good balance, reliability and good control authority with an element of grace that does not scare people - you don't want it quicker or stronger than people. It just needs to be so inexpensive to make that the dangerous robots are priced out of the market by being 10X more expensive.

Here is where that "control authority/leverage" thinking leads:

1. 4680 batteries in the legs and forearms to provide dynamic balance leverage.
2. Simple, relatively stiff ankles where lateral articulation is done by core muscles positioning the knees. The angular displacement of the lower leg translates all the way to the little toe via structural stiffness. There are not many, if any foot muscles. This is a cost, reliability and time decision.
3. Proprioceptors in the knees (Proprioception - Wikipedia) would use some bandwidth.

I think this is one way to a not-scary robot that is so inexpensive the scary ones never become economically viable. I think that is what Elon is looking for. It really needs to exist now and be inexpensive. Accommodation for the inexpensive foot would be via snow shoes and the like. Software would compensate using the knee data and core muscles that position the knee through time. That should solve balance cheaply at first blush.

Edit: Would probably have alternative locations for 4680s so that architectural mistakes do not scuttle the effort. A full string can be configured with and without using the arm and calf battery compartments.

 

[ChefBoyardee]

I wonder what the SP impact of all valuation models pricing in an additional 5-10% likelihood of robotaxis would be...

 

[CLK350]

[OT] Is it just me or did TMC just change its skin/ setup? The color scheme has changed to blue from red and it has a xenForo logo now ? Weird, it just got back to "normal"

 

[Paul_SF]

... and how does Elon answer the harder questions on stage while all the smartest people on earth are looking at him? And that's after explaining SpaceX tours. How can anyone person do all of this?

He is The One. Obviously.

 

[Krugerrand]

I thought Elon said they hope to have a prototype some time next year. That's a long way from being something they can sell.

Maybe. Maybe not. Don’t let that thinking by analogy bite you in the chocolate covered strawberry.

 

[dm28997]

AI day. WOW. I watched the entire presentation and will watch it again. 1,000,000,000,,000,000,000 calculations/second is not comprehensible. Some good points made here. Firefighting robots with boring tunnel equipment might help fight the current barrage of wildfires with some sparked by ICE vehicle's catalytic converters.
I still can't figure out how they can get billions of transistors on a tiny surface area.
The heat issue might be solved it they put DOJO in outer-space -270 degrees C. Satellites(SpaceX) with DOJO communicating with Teslas and semis might be quite amazing.
Basic income is coming but what will people do with all their spare time. Art, music, farming, etc.
SP is funny.

 

[Mengy]

I thought Elon said they hope to have a prototype some time next year. That's a long way from being something they can sell.

My gut agrees with you, BUT reality might be very different. Prototype next year could honestly lead to release Teslabot a year or two afterwords, especially given Tesla's immense skill in building production facilities quickly.

If they reveal a prototype EoY 2022 with the schedule of mass production by mid to end of 2024, then imagine the pre-orders for this!!! And once they would start mass production sales of an actual functional Teslabot would be insane.

I honestly feel the software for a Teslabot would take longer to get ready than the physical production. This is uncharted territory in many ways, so it's a bit hard to fathom how this might play out from a business point of view. That said, Tesla has the expertise & experience to really accomplish it. This has never really happened before.

 

[ZeApelido]

Elon has said several times that taking care of old people is not a desirable job.

The fear of robots taking care of the elderly has already been shown:

 

[insaneoctane]

I suspect it's another Elon company cross over. AI powered robots will be critical to getting Mars up and going.

Love the portfolio expansion. Just wish Tesla would absorb the Boring Co and Neuralink already!

 

[jbcarioca]

A key part of transitioning the world to sustainable energy is reducing the amount of energy required to perform necessary or desirable functions. Manufacturing is not going to go away. Every robot that can perform a human task is one less person that needs to be transported to/from work each day. Robots stay at the factory which increases efficiency. The best trip is no trip. Sure, the displaced worker is still going to go places but the lack of needing to be somewhere everyday likely means a whole lot less moving about.

While I think a robot capable of generally replacing typical human workers is perhaps more than a handful of years away, I don't think it's productive to argue that advancements like this could not (eventually) benefit the mission. It's critical that humanity learn how to support our lives more efficiently. If robots can increase our standard of living it will be because it's a more efficient way to do things. But that day is some time off. Currently, it is not considered cost-effective to have the simplest of robots, basically a servo motor and a hinge, turn a solar panel from east to west to keep it pointed at the sun throughout the day due to mechanical expense and the need to keep it functional. I would like to see something like that become cost-effective before assuming we will have humanoid robots that are extremely mechanically complex to perform other menial tasks in a cost-effective way. As Elon said, humans are under-rated.

I do support Tesla developing this but I don't think it will pay for itself for over a decade or more. Eventually, it will be a very lucrative field.

The generalized solutions will not happen for decades. Myriad specialized tasks that are optimally managed with a humanoid form are the logical targets. Those probably include factory or machine operations that are typically done by humans, such as explosive device identification and removal, factory operations that have major heat, fume or accident risk. Existing robotics copes well with many such tasks, and more are happening every day. The question is where a humanoid form gives a material advantage. Everything from restaurant manual workers , replacement for guide animals, hotel and residential custodial tasks...there is quite a range for optimal use of a humanoid form.

A "Dors Venabili" will not appear in my lifetime, although some politicians seem to possibly be defective prototypes.

 

[ZachF]

But assume a Robot costs $50K to make and can work 20 hours per day for 10 years with minimal maintenance, consuming about the same amount of electricity as a car... Ignoring electricity, the Robot costs around $0.70 per hour

Precisely. Even if maintenance doubles the cost, and robot is only 1/3rd as productive as a human, robot still wins.

 

[larmor]

A long time ago, the NASDAQ did not allow computer automated order entry/trading. So someone built a robot that would punch in the order on the keyboard. Teslabot-- time to meet the algobots...

 

[Christine69420]

I am away visiting my elderly mum helping out. She could so use a TeslaBot with a nursing app. And a butler app.

Haven't seen the whole presentation yet - but so impressive to read about the D1 system! Tesla Computers if we need another branching out. Just another car company. Just another robotics company. Just another computer company. Just another software company. Just another AI company. Just another energy company. Just another taxi company. So Boring. When is the next flight to Mars?

Dangerous, repetitive and boring

So many potential customers from TeslaQ

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Deposits. I never even saw the Model 3 when I signed up. Sure, deposits aren't big revenue, but if we saw 1M reservations stemming from large corporations looking to save labor costs and start the training ASAP, what do you think the stock would do? I'd personally give more than $1K deposit and accept a Beta unit gladly, I'm in Alpha/Beta land now anyway.

Ah yes, deposits. Good point.

If they did a demo of a Tesla Bot opening a fridge and delivering a beer to someone on a couch, they will sell millions of them.

 

[lafrisbee]

My point was that during the Q&A they were twice asked for what kinds of things might the robot do. Both times the only answer was to repeat
"boring, repetitive, and dangerous" tasks. Of course it's easy to think of lots of such tasks just as many here have done. The thing is that they didn't answer because they didn't want to answer. Announcing even one such task sets a high bar they don't want to set, and for good reason - they haven't started this yet, not even the minimal thinking about the problems so they're not ready to answer. Especially with an absurd 1 year timeline.

Navigating through the world is one thing, interacting with it is another whole ball of wax. There are lots of researchers all over the world working on robotics that "do things" and very little progress has been made. If anyone can solve it, Elon (and the team he will build) can but it will still take a decade or more before it's even slightly general.

Your example is super narrow and might be a good starting point because it is so limited (yet still very difficult), but it's not inspiring so there is no way that would be an answer they could have given last night.

No. You are WRONG. Just WRONG.
By not giving an example they infuriated no one, no segment of the workforce which would immediately become political.
Instead Tesla wants to have people/society see Optimus Subprime as something that makes everyone's life better by doing anything they want done by a machine.
And by giving a concrete example Tesla would immediately have many other segments of our population claim that Tesla should work on what they believe a robot should do first. Which would create more roadblocks and negative noise.
Someone at Tesla has control over, or will have control of, deciding which tasks Teslabot will do correctly first.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Ah yes, deposits. Good point.

If they did a demo of a Tesla Bot opening a fridge and delivering a beer to someone on a couch, they will sell millions of them.

Just what I was thinking, “MiniElon, bring me a martini and charcuterie while I read TMC!”.