Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

He's stating 10.4k local deliveries in August. That could be quite bullish.
In July, Tesla took 7.7 days to load ships and exports were 24,347
In Aug, Tesla took 11.1 days to load ships - so exports should be higher.
Troy is expecting about 50k in exports from China in Q3 - that would mean 26k in exports for Aug (50-24=26) and 10k in local for 36k total.
The 26k in exports for August seems very low considering the loading days of 11. We could be seeing total export and local deliveries well over 40k for August.

View attachment 702953

Dude, we don't deserve you!

 

[GOVA]

News from Germany, I've not heard before.

Elon Musk Just Turned Everything in Favor of Tesla​

 

[st_lopes]

He's stating 10.4k local deliveries in August. That could be quite bullish.
In July, Tesla took 7.7 days to load ships and exports were 24,347
In Aug, Tesla took 11.1 days to load ships - so exports should be higher.
Troy is expecting about 50k in exports from China in Q3 - that would mean 26k in exports for Aug (50-24=26) and 10k in local for 36k total.
The 26k in exports for August seems very low considering the loading days of 11. We could be seeing total export and local deliveries well over 40k for August.

View attachment 702953

I had to reread this a few times to realize that the underlying assumption is 0 exports in September (since that’s still in Q3). That makes sense.

This is indeed bullish, but there will be a few weeks of China demand FUD until we get the wholesale and production numbers in mid September.

 

[UkNorthampton]

I had to reread this a few times to realize that the underlying assumption is 0 exports in September (since that’s still in Q3). That makes sense.

This is indeed bullish, but there will be a few weeks of China demand FUD until we get the wholesale and production numbers in mid September.

I think Tesla Shanghai aren't keeping to the previous delivery waves due to shipping & port restrictions, I think they'll take some export opportunities rather than risk stranding in China with wrong charger & other differences from China specs. We saw this previously with deliveries to Australia, Singapore & Israel (from memory).

 

[RobDickinson]

Shanghai was exporting cars in June so we may see some exports in September.

 

[Lessmog]

Lol, then those 'designers' need to cut back on the beans...

Cheers!

But but but ... isn't that what they are counting?

 

[petit_bateau]

I can't figure out what it is. There are two extra wide bays making up most of the building. This could be used for casting, however we don't see the same in Austin where there are standard width pillars.

There were also no particularly deep foundations (unless they were done after the walls went up), which could also mean casting but is not a definitive answer.
View attachment 702902

However while there is some air handling equipment on top, there is far less than on the model Y casting building. There is also far less than I would expect for cell production.
View attachment 702906

Model Y casting roof for reference.
View attachment 702909

If I had to guess, I'd agree with @Chenkers that it's the design studio - but only because it seems too different to the other building's we've seen go up for casting or other standard manufacturing buildings.

If Tesla have concluded that they will have solvent-free cell manufacturing working at an acceptable yield (say up from the current ~80%, to say ~99%) by the time this building reaches a fully-stuffed-and-commissioned status, then, just perhaps, this is for 4680 cell production. If that were so it would not need huge amounts of driers etc on top and would be quite a compact floorplan. Or it is something else entirely.

(I thought the R&D and engineering office was co-located with the Supercharger manufacturing building, away from the main Shanghai car plant ?)

 

[Rarity]

Size comparison of Tesla factories, to the best of the data I was able to find.

Let me know if you spot inaccuracies.

View attachment 702823

You rock, @ZachF. Thank you!

 

[Rarity]

Both factories are doing fine. Not sure why some of you have to make this into some kind of Olympic event.

Because while imperfect, these measurements of progress are objective and aggregate many factors. They also give us a good idea about the rate at which these jurisdictions can accept capital from Tesla, whose pockets are being burned from all the money in them. Fast is good. Slow is bad.

 

[friit]

I guess in some of the eastern countries it might be possible to 'by-pass' permit problems by greasing the right hands. I'm sure Tesla won't. Most of those countries would have plenty of other problems Tesla would want to avoid anyway.

While I agree that different countries have different issues, I'd object to this kind of lazy generalisation of "eastern countries". There's plenty of problems with corruption in the "western countries" that the newer EU members don't have and in many cases the newer members are more transparent and have better business environments.

 

[RobDickinson]

You rock, @ZachF. Thank you!

Berlin has an area for battery plant going in also doesnt it? below the drive unit building?

 

[redan]

Model Y takes over first place for August in Norway with less than 10 days of sales.

Tesla Model Y Makes A Big Sales Splash In Norway

Tesla Is Taking Over Norway - CleanTechnica

Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! Tesla’s recent events in Norway have been groundbreaking. The electric automaker shipped around 1,300 Model Ys to Norway as it began deliveries to Europe recently. It turns out these Model Ys were shipped...

cleantechnica.com

 

[Nolimits]

Model Y takes over first place for August in Norway with less than 10 days of sales.

Tesla Model Y Makes A Big Sales Splash In Norway

Tesla Is Taking Over Norway - CleanTechnica

Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! Tesla’s recent events in Norway have been groundbreaking. The electric automaker shipped around 1,300 Model Ys to Norway as it began deliveries to Europe recently. It turns out these Model Ys were shipped...

cleantechnica.com

Surprised by the mustang machE numbers in Norway. Good to have competition I guess. I am predicting numbers will be drastically different by December

 

[MrMoo]

He's stating 10.4k local deliveries in August. That could be quite bullish.
In July, Tesla took 7.7 days to load ships and exports were 24,347
In Aug, Tesla took 11.1 days to load ships - so exports should be higher.
Troy is expecting about 50k in exports from China in Q3 - that would mean 26k in exports for Aug (50-24=26) and 10k in local for 36k total.
The 26k in exports for August seems very low considering the loading days of 11. We could be seeing total export and local deliveries well over 40k for August.

View attachment 702953

Sorry can you clarify what you mean

"Troy is expecting about 50k in exports from China in Q3 - that would mean 26k in exports for Aug (50-24=26) and 10k in local for 36k total."

If 50k in exports is expected for Q3 you cannot just subtract 50-24 = 26. There are 3 months in a quarter. Or do you suggest 0 exports in September?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Sorry can you clarify what you mean

"Troy is expecting about 50k in exports from China in Q3 - that would mean 26k in exports for Aug (50-24=26) and 10k in local for 36k total."

If 50k in exports is expected for Q3 you cannot just subtract 50-24 = 26. There are 3 months in a quarter. Or do you suggest 0 exports in September?

Tesla's MO is that 3rd Month of the quarter is for local deliveries. They've always stuck to this. Last quarter there was 1 ship in June

 

[ammulder]

Or do you suggest 0 exports in September?

I think that's the idea. Just like Fremont used to be -- exports are sent in the first two months of the quarter but not the third month, so they have time to be shipped, unloaded, and delivered within the quarter. The last month of the quarter is all in-country (or at least pretty nearby) deliveries where they can be shipped and delivered, starting with the ones farther from the factory and ending with the ones they can just roll out the factory door and deliver.

 

[MrMoo]

I think that's the idea. Just like Fremont used to be -- exports are sent in the first two months of the quarter but not the third month, so they have time to be shipped, unloaded, and delivered within the quarter. The last month of the quarter is all in-country (or at least pretty nearby) deliveries where they can be shipped and delivered, starting with the ones farther from the factory and ending with the ones they can just roll out the factory door and deliver.

Yes but they still did 5,000 exports in June. To say literally 0 I mean is a strech isn't it?

We'll just keep an eye out I guess.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Yes but they still did 5,000 exports in June. To say literally 0 I mean is a strech isn't it?

We'll just keep an eye out I guess.

Well to that end, there was only 1 ship in June and 5,000 exports. So that 1 ship equaled 5,000 cars. If you do the math with 6 ships in Aug, you still get 30k exports. So 40k in total for August between local deliveries and exports.

 

[MrMoo]

Well to that end, there was only 1 ship in June and 5,000 exports. So that 1 ship equaled 5,000 cars. If you do the math with 6 ships in Aug, you still get 30k exports. So 40k in total for August between local deliveries and exports.

Well I mean for napkin math yer. Would agree to that! Would love to see that by the way. I do think 45,000 is a stretch. 40k (10k and 30k) this month and then a similar number next month (5k exports) seems more in line.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

While I agree that different countries have different issues, I'd object to this kind of lazy generalisation of "eastern countries". There's plenty of problems with corruption in the "western countries" that the newer EU members don't have and in many cases the newer members are more transparent and have better business environments.

Unfortunately it's not some 'lazy generalization'. I see that you give your location as Estonia so I can understand you are upset as Estonia seems to be the one country that actually has a better score than several western countries. Just a few other countries from the eastern part seems to have a lower score than even one western country.

Most corrupt countries

If it makes you feel better I consider Estonia more a Baltic country than an Eastern European one.

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Moderator: and this is the last post on corruption.