Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AudubonB]

Not that this post is directed to any particular poster; just thought I'd share some relevancies from Life in the Fast Lane:

Anyone who claims that he or she is good at herding cats is welcome to required to sign up for the Iditacat Sled Cat Race. That's where we separate the kitties from the Tom{asina}Cats.

 

[S3XY]

Wrong question. The right question is how do you herd the first one? Additional individuals gets subsequently easier. But to answer; I have herded over 30 at a time. I’m literally a cat magnet and my best friend can attest to that having witnessed it several times. It’s an exceptional talent.

Pssssshhh! I can do this too. I just need my extended recording of a can opener. They'll follow me anywhere.

 

[S3XY]

Right...it was because it went crazy. He was telling Elon to cash in at 560. He announced his shorts a month later (if I recall correctly and I might be wrong). 800s would be the price if I recall. A difference of $200 and that's real money.

I think Burry is actual just as smart as he thinks he is. He's very similar to Elon actually. He calls it like he sees it and with Tesla he doesn't see the valuation being given and he could be wrong or he could be right but the key point for any smart investor is not dismissing a contrary voice just because they are contrary. He's won multiple times, he has an ability to see issues and call them out. Maybe that's not "intelligence" and maybe it is just uncompromising honesty. Don't discount him, he's no GJ. You have to remember, he wants Tesla to succeed. He likes Tesla and the mission, he thinks the pricing was incorrect.

When you're best known for how well you swung your hammer that one time everything starts to look like a nail.

 

[jhm]

Wait. You can actually herd cats?
I'm gonna need to see video evidence of this.

We appear to be camping out in the low $780s. So gather around the campfire. We'll sing cowboy songs, and @Krugerrand will recount to us tales from his cat wrangling days. Better than beans, boys and girls.

 

[vwman111]

I don't know how old you are, but you have to keep in perspective age and time in the market. A million at age 40 is different than a million at 50. Look at how much the general indicies have performed over the last 10 - 20 yrs. Sure probably not going to repeat 2010 - now, but should probably get 7% average return a year. I'm at 40 with several mil, at some point I should just throw most of the money into QQQ and watch it appreciate 3x to 10x ish over the next 10-20 years. That would get me close to 8 digits without really having to do anything.

Just enjoy life while you get older and let your money get there.

Edit: Oh you're 31. Easy peasy. Buy and hold QQQ. Whenever there is a major recession, move into TQQQ

Nine or Nothing

 

[vwman111]

I've held the belief for some time that this is a factor in the decision to not do another share dividend until the last of his tranches have vested. Then, 10:1

Right now, we're all playing musical chairs.

Cheers!

Is that your quote?

 

[Sofie]

Big investment firms have individualized services for high net worth individuals, and for Professionals like Doctors, etc.

In my experience, one of the smartest things you could do is to seek out the advice of these services, then post the resulting financial plan on your refrigerator in large print so that you NEVER EVER DO ANY OF THAT.

You're welcome, in advance.

Cheers!

Why else do you think I come here and ask all of you without ever whispering a word to all those other “voices” I have easy assess to?
My brilliant Tesla friends! Thank you all!

 

[Wicket]

I put up a poll here. Curious to get some data on people's expectations of FSD progress pace.

Timing of FSD poll

I'm curious about general expectations people have for the timing of Tesla FSD tech. The timing might depend on precisely the nature of the system being judged a success but I'm going for approximately Level 4 (or 5) here, available as an expensive option or sub to buyers of the vehicle, in a...

teslamotorsclub.com

Might be interesting to compare again in 6 months to another.

 

[hacer]

We assume these posts simply reflect your lack of understanding about the mechanics of splits and thus confuse the posters before you by assuming they suggest intrinsic value from splits. I will try to explain the two major points:
1. Short sellers which do so 'naked' are limited to direct market makers. The can carry short portions for long periods without buying any underlying securities. Thus: naked. That is illegal for beneficial owners. When there is split these entities must buy shares to cover their positions, because they own phantom shares they do not benefit from the split but must suddenly deliver the post-split share numbers. Hence the desire for a split.
2. Some issuers, including TSLA have found share prices rise post split and do so enduringly. That, admitedly, is slightly illogical because the intrinsic value does not change, but it still happens.

You are arguing, it seems, about fundamentals. Perhaps sadly, fundamentals are really not what most securities trading is about. Market makers make money on volatility, not value.

Almost none in this forum imagines they might actually see intrinsic value increase by splits. Many of us think history will repeat itself and price will rise following a split, not least because some of those shorts will need to cover.

It is not "basic mathematics". It is far more complex than that, and less precise.

There is a logical flaw in the reasoning why a split forces the hand of naked shorts. First let me say that I'm not arguing that a split definitely could not force their, hand just that the arguments for why/how have a flaw. If the naked short is hidden within a brokerage arm by having a lot of customers whos balance shows shares held, but the brokerage does not actually have that many shares, what's to stop them from just upping this fake ownership number for each customer by a factor of 5 ex-dividend? That would have no affect on the stock price, nor on the timeliness of the stock dividend delivery. The evidence either way is entirely inside their own books, which have been cooked for some time already, so what's the difference with a little extra time on the stove? I can't think of what that would be, but let's suppose there is a problem doing that.

Let's assume that the split shines some sort of light on the fake (e.g. failed-to-deliver (FTD) due to naked short) shares held. Further let's assume that this light applies pressure to the naked short to clear up those particular FTDs and also deliver the extra 4 shares/share at the same time. Suppose the MM is naked 200N shares where N is some number. Post-split they will need to deliver 1000N real shares to cover their exposed extended-stay FTDs. What is to stop this MM from simply creating 1000N brand-new naked shorts , and using the cash acquired from those sales to buy real shares in the market (both sides of each transaction happing nearly simultaneously) that will be used to cover their old naked shorts? They could do this just after the ex-dividend date and deliver these new shares to cover their old exposed FTDs, which have been replaced by brand new FTDs that were created post-split and therefore are once again invisible. It's certainly easier for them to replace the old naked position with a new one compared to actually buying shares to cover (which requires them to use their own cash rather than someone else's). This could also explain some late arrivals of the stock dividend. But it shouldn't cause any run up in price.

If there is a risk to the naked short that exposure would happen just before the ex-dividend date and that being exposed would have serious consequences like landing them in jail (which I highly doubt given the MMs are legally allowed to naked short) then they would need to cover those shorts before the ex-dividend date. That would cause a rise in the stock price and the rise would happen between the announcement and the ex-D date. TSLA did rise about 60% during this time period between the 11th (announcement) and the 28th (split date). So this could be the case, but then what is it that puts them in jeopardy? It can't be beneficial share holders because they would already have had to receive real shares. The kited naked shares must all be in street name, or there would be no way to hide them. So what is the mechanism?

 

[Singuy]

I put up a poll here. Curious to get some data on people's expectations of FSD progress pace.

Timing of FSD poll

I'm curious about general expectations people have for the timing of Tesla FSD tech. The timing might depend on precisely the nature of the system being judged a success but I'm going for approximately Level 4 (or 5) here, available as an expensive option or sub to buyers of the vehicle, in a...

teslamotorsclub.com

Might be interesting to compare again in 6 months to another.

It's probably quicker than you think. Remember in early 2020 Elon said FSD has a above zero percent chance of getting you from point a to b? Then FSD beta came out and it was impressive but also a crazy mess. Now people are having high success rate with no interventions in suburbs and we only see downtown videos just to have interesting content. Lots of progress, and I think if Tesla changes one thing it can dramatically reduce interventions tomorrow. If they can move the car up 5ft at every stop sign, intersection and stop light. This will improve visibility dramatically. Right now it's still stopping way too earlier and spends an agonizing amount of time creeping forward.

 

[JustMe]

With the HQ moving to Austin, I wonder if software updates will start going out 2 hours earlier

I never cared much about software updates before. Certainly not auto software. What is happening to me?

 

[StealthP3D]

With the HQ moving to Austin, I wonder if software updates will start going out 2 hours earlier

I never cared much about software updates before. Certainly not auto software. What is happening to me?

The FSD team will not be moving to Texas, so I wouldn't expect anything to change.

 

[MP3Mike]

With the HQ moving to Austin, I wonder if software updates will start going out 2 hours earlier

For this time, Elon specifically said midnight California time. (While the HQ has moved, the main Autopilot team probably hasn't. And probably won't. Though we do know they have hired people to do testing in Texas, so the team may be split at this point.)

 

[Krugerrand]

Take note all you mockingbirds.

 

[EVDRVN]

The FSD team will not be moving to Texas, so I wouldn't expect anything to change.

Prob no the design offices next to you know where either.

 

[CaliBear1]

I was parked next to a Model X Plaid a couple of days ago here in Quebec City. Car has dealership plate and is here apparently to "experience" our trademark winter and potholes. Vin #325791
View attachment 719084

Thanks for sharing. It doesn’t seem to have the beefy flared fenders of the Model S Plaid. Maybe it’s just the photo.

 

[Captkerosene]

One year after opening Gigaberlin workers will have to decide whether to unionize or not.

How many bots can you buy for $137M?

 

[Artful Dodger]

If the naked short is hidden within a brokerage arm by having a lot of customers whos balance shows shares held, but the brokerage does not actually have that many shares, what's to stop them from just upping this fake ownership number for each customer by a factor of 5 ex-dividend?

That's what several members here experienced as their Brokers did not receive enough TSLA dividend shares from the transfer agent to cover all of their share obligations to their retail customers. I PREDICTED this would happen in advance, and posted that prediction here.

Those Brokers were able to buy their missing shares after Tesla's share offering on Sep 1st, but still did not deliver them to retail Customers until Thu, Sep 3 (or even later in some cases). That's the 2-day settlement rule peeking out its nose.

I also predicted (in advance) that Tesla would do a share offering, and what the size of that offering would be, based on early Aug short interest data. This was the "1-2 knock-out punch" Tesla planned for naked shorts. I give full credit to new Tesla Board member Hiro Mizuno for this gambit. It netted Tesla $5B in cash, back when that was a lot of money for Tesla.

Another way that Options Market Makers are able to achieve perpetual naked short positions (and avoid the 13-day FTD reporting requirements), is to repeatedly swap their naked shorts with another Options Market Maker. This is separate from retail trading, and has to do with shares shorted in the course of a MMs own proprietary trading. It just takes two to collude.

This method has been discussed both here and in several blog articles on the topic, especially the (now-defunct) website "Counterfeiting Stock 2.0" (still readable through the "Wayback Machine" at archive.org).

The reason this 2nd naked shorting scheme might break down during a share dividend event is unequal short holdings leading to the "hot potato" syndrome: No MM wants to be the one left holding the bag, so they break and cover as rapidly as possible. We did see that Citadel Securities bailed out Melvin Capital back in Jan 2021: (why else would they spend $2.75B other than to keep this scheme private, rather than just letting Melvin fail? The answer is books and record-keeping)

Citadel, Point72 Back Melvin With $2.75 Billion After Losses

Hedge fund titans Ken Griffin and Steve Cohen boosted Gabe Plotkin’s Melvin Capital, injecting a total of $2.75 billion into the firm after it lost about 30% this year.

www.bloomberg.com

TL;dr Not believing a reason does not make it a logical fallacy.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

EV Rental Company Dropping All EVs Aside From Tesla's Vehicles

Whether or not you're a fan of Tesla, it's almost impossible to deny that the US automaker makes EVs easy to own and charge. It's software is king as well.

insideevs.com

TL; DR: “The German electric car rental company, Miete Deinen Tesla, mentions multiple vehicles, including the Volkswagen ID models, Porsche Taycan, Skoda Enyaq, and Hyundai Kona Electric and Ioniq Electric. It said these cars had a lot of issues with software, charging, and repairs”. They ditched them all for Teslas because they couldn’t put up with the constant issues like charging difficulties, and software updates that are almost as predictability terrible as a Gojo Tesla forecast.

Tesla continues to be miles and years ahead of everyone else. Not advice.

 

[Gigapress]

Also you'll also find out there's a gigantic diminishing in return on goods/services where the more you pay, the less improved quality you get. Eventually money just becomes score in a video game. You already did the heavy lifting by working 100+hours/week, it's time to scale that down. I have to 24h already.

Money also buys philanthropy. I would love to run up the score on that game. Something to consider when we're all billionaires...