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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Semi OT, but Ark is playing with a fund that shorts companies being disrupted. Might be a handy one stop shop for some of us.

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Then you guys bring up the lease risk issue and ...I confess I don't know quite what Ford risk is in this case. Do the incredible resale values right now bail them out? Will Ford ratchet back lease options with rising rates? Not sure.

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IMO the Ford case is an interesting one and puzzling too. On the plus side Ford Motor Credit Company never was disbanded, as GM sold GMAC. FMCC has tended to be conservative in residual values, sometimes less so with credit assessment. That has tended to avoid the catastrophic periodic losses of several others (often absorbed on the auto sales side so a trifle opaque for most OEMs). They have recently doing a bit better in China, are producing the Mach E there, for example, but they've really been far more cautious than has been Tesla and GM. The primary question is how fast they can scale BEV's IMHO. They desperately need them for the UK and Germany, both important markets for them. They've exited Brazil and a number of other markets, fairly short sighted choices. To their credit they know the UK and German company car markets as well as does anyone, both not really easy to master.

For the most part they've avoided being disaster-prone in new technologies with mistakes that have tended to be correctable, mostly reliability and QC issues rather than stupid product choices. Leaving sedans in the US probably is not the worst decision, and they've maintained the Fiesta and other smaller products (Ka and Kuga both work decently for them).

Again they are not yet doing anything about smaller BEV products so are threatened by nearly everyone everywhere. Can they adapt quickly enough? I don't know, but they certainly are far less threatened than is GM, and Stellantis in the US and China.

In my opinion the most important risk is from Tesla, specifically the new products coming form the designs in China and Germany. If Tesla does as it always has thus far when they move downscale the odds for Ford decline rapidly, as they do for most others from Stellantis, VAG, BMW and Daimler-Benz. Depending on the segment we may well end out with Chinese builders (BYD, JAC, BAIC and Geely are sure to the significant factors).
 
What system is in place in the US to signal other auto that the driver is still learning how to drive (or with a very new license?)
For example, in Italy, we have a large P on the rear glass. It signals other drivers that you are a beginner (P stands for Principiante).

(FSD-related question, of course)
LOL. I don't think US has such a system, but I might be wrong. Some people get stickers to indicate such.
 
What system is in place in the US to signal other auto that the driver is still learning how to drive (or with a very new license?)
For example, in Italy, we have a large P on the rear glass. It signals other drivers that you are a beginner (P stands for Principiante).

(FSD-related question, of course)
I have wished that an indicator lights up when we're running on some form of auto-steer/control mode. Mostly out of "See what I can do", but as a warning, as you mention, sounds like a good purpose also.
 
What system is in place in the US to signal other auto that the driver is still learning how to drive (or with a very new license?)
For example, in Italy, we have a large P on the rear glass. It signals other drivers that you are a beginner (P stands for Principiante).

(FSD-related question, of course)
Nothing. Most states have you take a 50 question test to get a permit, and then drive around a parking lot to show you can stop at a stop sign and parallel park. Bam, license.
 
True but natural also since the only common thread among us seems to be that we all invest in TSLA. Otherwise...some of us are old enough to have been AAPL, AMZN, and any others of the recent decades breakout stars. Some took flyers such as Hotmail, AOL, Compuserve, Yahoo etc. I was with SRI back then and put my meager resources in some of them. In the end most of them ended out parts of Verizon. Then there is MapQuest and PayPal.

Now we all should think about how TSLA,AAPL and AMZN differ from all of those. Some of us probably did quite well with those. Some of us probably have thought Elon Musk was different than nearly all those others even from PayPal days.

Personally, having lived through all of that from 333 Ravenswood Drive(plus Xerox Parc with a deeply incestuous association with SRI people) I did dabble in the ones that smarter people than I expected to succeed. Nobody anticipated the rate of change including those of us who were being paid to predict.

As we think of Tesla I keep recalling all those events of the 1970's and 1980's. No matter how confident we are that Tesla will continue dominance and that BEV's are the inevitable winners I cannot help thinking back to what I thought in 1980.

To my mind the ignorance of the larger world is a critical flaw for us. Apple nearly failed more than once. Microsoft nearly became part of IBM.
One of the two witnesses at my wedding was the President of Yahoo. She helped me realize just how fragile outsized successes can be.

While we go through continuing volatility and see how many moving parts there are at Shanghai, Grüneheide, Austin, Fremont, Sparks, Buffalo and so much more we need to be very careful to avoid confirmation bias. Frankly our diverse perspectives (political, economic, education, professional and cultural) are one of our greatest strengths.

For me the most consequential learning I have found here is from people with whom I am in profound disagreement on many things.
Please for all of us, including MODS please be careful to not drown out dissent. Please.
Thanks for mentioning SRI.
I think there may be something to be learned from Altavista search engine path.

Vs Google.

Musk is on the edge of well posed and will retreat if it is failing. See Fremont over automation. Automating waste becoming Giga press.
 
Oh, sure, I ransack the couches and put in my buy order for $1060... and it takes the elevator to $1096 $1120.

You're welcome.
I bought some more at $1070 and sold for a $30 gain, allowing me to add 2 more shares. Of course I did not get the max, and I know I am playing with fire a bit. I did a similar thing yesterday as well. I don't think it will work each time, but it is fun adding shares that way. Catching a falling knife has not worked for me in the past with other companies, but it seems to work rather well with TSLA.
 
What system is in place in the US to signal other auto that the driver is still learning how to drive (or with a very new license?)
For example, in Italy, we have a large P on the rear glass. It signals other drivers that you are a beginner (P stands for Principiante).

(FSD-related question, of course)
In Arizona, Tesla is providing these signs to get ready for FSD (not). 😁
Only $5 (at a local garage sale last week). It lights still, very old!

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It's official, hell has frozen over:


In case anyway cannot get through the paywall, it is a favorable article questioning many things we have questioned. She takes a little shot at the end, but the article references much of what GM has done to thwart Tesla and the EV revolution.

Excerpt below:

I can’t help but wonder why Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, who is from Tesla’s home state of California, so studiously avoid any mention of the company, which employs more than 100,000 people worldwide. Does the Biden administration desperately want to distance itself from the world's biggest billionaire?

There is plenty to criticize Musk for, from his crude and juvenile tweets at members of Congress to his refusal to abide by local public-health mandates in the early days of the pandemic. But Biden would do best to stick to the facts and acknowledge — as the market has — Tesla’s role as the leader in the EV revolution.
 
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It's official, hell has frozen over:


In case anyway cannot get through the paywall, it is a favorable article questioning many things we have questioned. She takes a little shot at the end, but the article references much of what GM has done to thwart Tesla and the EV revolution.

Excerpt below:

I can’t help but wonder why Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, who is from Tesla’s home state of California, so studiously avoid any mention of the company, which employs more than 100,000 people worldwide. Does the Biden administration desperately want to distance itself from the world's biggest billionaire?

There is plenty to criticize Musk for, from his crude and juvenile tweets at members of Congress to his refusal to abide by local public-health mandates in the early days of the pandemic. But Biden would do best to stick to the facts and acknowledge — as the market has — Tesla’s role as the leader in the EV revolution.
The total UAW membership plus those retired total 980,000.

Elon has 64 million Twitter followers, and I would guess more than half of them
in the USA. Assuming half vote democrat, that’s 16 million versus 980,000.

Whomever is doing the political calculus , might be miscalculating.
Why alienate 16 million to win 980,000 does not compute.
Unless the 16 million is fuzzy and 980,000 is a sure thing.
We shall see.
 
It's official, hell has frozen over:


In case anyway cannot get through the paywall, it is a favorable article questioning many things we have questioned. She takes a little shot at the end, but the article references much of what GM has done to thwart Tesla and the EV revolution.

Excerpt below:

I can’t help but wonder why Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, who is from Tesla’s home state of California, so studiously avoid any mention of the company, which employs more than 100,000 people worldwide. Does the Biden administration desperately want to distance itself from the world's biggest billionaire?

There is plenty to criticize Musk for, from his crude and juvenile tweets at members of Congress to his refusal to abide by local public-health mandates in the early days of the pandemic. But Biden would do best to stick to the facts and acknowledge — as the market has — Tesla’s role as the leader in the EV revolution.
For Dana, using here long time coverage of Tesla as a lens through which to critique the Biden administration is a great journalistic opportunity. Elon is a small bear compared to Biden. Smart career move for her.
 
Shanghai following Fremont's lead and removing radar, which is good for margins.