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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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There was some chit chat recently on how long it might take to transition fully from ICE to EV. Since I cleaned up my long term historical data series and future forecasts I thought I could look at that fairly easily, at least for some crude approximations so as to add data to what can otherwise be an unreal discussion.

There are issues around both stocks and flows, i.e. how many vehicles are in existence and how many get built and/or disposed of each year.

For the definition of a vehicle I used the IOICA ones (www.oica.net) which differentiate between light duty vehicles (aka 'passenger') and heavy duty (aka "commercial"). The "passenger" ones of course includes all those 'trucks' the yanks keep bleating about, whereas the heavy duty ones seem to be mostly the large buses and heavy goods vehicles.

For flows there are many series of tota production and with a bit of care one can identify light vs heavy. For lifespan one needs to be careful - most of the studies tend to give a vehicle lifespan in the mid-teens. However as any visitor to a poorer country will see the vehicles there are often well beyond mid teens, and so one needs to account for vehicles being exported out of rich nations to poor nations, and so skewing the data. This study (Lifespans of passenger cars in Europe: empirical modelling of fleet turnover dynamics - European Transport Research Review) looks at that and comes to 18-year lifespans for west Europe and 28-year lifespans for East Europe. As a result I selected a 20-year lifespan for global average forecasting purposes, though inevitably that will mask both national variation and the likelihood of some compression during the latter stages of adoption.

There is talk about how autonomous vehicles may result in fewer vehicles as each vehicle gets more fully utilised. I don't see any significant autonomy hitting the mass-market pre 2030, if only for regulatory reasons. Equally as (hopefully, perhaps) more humans around the planet are able to afford access to vehicles that will tend towards greater numbers of vehicles, though of course the continued penetration of rail solutions will have an effect, at least in some regions. During the transition some ICE-manufacturers will naturally push cheap vehicles into the market in an attempt to survive and that will drive volumes up, but then some of them will go bankrupt before the corresponding EV volumes are fully available, which will complicate matters. Therefore I imposed a long term (2040) production volume of 60 million vehicles/year to account for these various effects, and I sketched in a production profile over the next 20-years that attempts to reflect a bounce-back from Covid and these factors.

View attachment 749636

As we know Tesla are pushing towards 20m/yr in 2030, and for the last few years Tesla have been approximately 22-23% of BEV-sales (see my previous studies and also EV-sales-blogspot). However Musk is on record as saying he thinks by the time Tesla get to 20m/yr the others will only reach 10m/yr. That does not seem likely to me as non-Tesla BEV production was already 2.5m in 2020, and non-Tesla growth rates have historically also been good. Nonetheless we can see that non-Tesla long-range integrated planning may be less than perfect and so I set up a progression for Tesla from the current 23% towards 50% in 2030. After that there is no good reason for Tesla to stop growing, indeed many reasons that they could and would do so. In this respect we can recall that Ford were once at 60% market share in the inter-War years. Therefore I assumed that Tesla continue to grow to ~30m and that the remainder of the industry match that rate.

For PHEV it seems to me that they are a failed technology and so once the current crop have come to market as a way of spreading the batteries around as thinly as possible, they will diminish to fairly rare use-cases. I suspect they will peak at 4.6m/yr in 2024 at 5% market share.

This gives the following production breakdowns.
View attachment 749642
or put differently it suggests ICE production would - naturally, and without requiring intervention - cease globally by 2035.
View attachment 749643
This assumes that Tesla perform on their stated plans, and that by-comparison other companies fail to individually match Tesla and can only (together) hold parity in volume terms with Tesla. If the ~25% market share of Tesla were to remain steady and the other companies somehow are able to match Tesla's growth rate then of course ICE-manufacture would end far earlier. Other combinations are of course possible.
View attachment 749646
In stock terms this creates the following global outcome, with ICE fully eliminated to all intents by 2050. From an energy perspective they would have become irrelevant earlier as the most mileages are driven by the newer vehicles.
View attachment 749647
Maybe one day I'll look at the energy and carbon implications of this.
Seems longer than what others have posted but I don't question your data (and I haven't digested it all). Here's something else to consider.

"How Much Is A Scrap Car Worth?

According to data from JunkCarMedics.com you can expect to get between $332 - $883 for your average junk car. For the month of November, the average value of a junk car was $626, which is an increase from a value of $569 in October."

It's probably US data but it's recent, and may not account for what the value is in say Mexico for example, where I know things can just keep going much past serviceable life. But at what point does someone melt it down for the raw materials, especially if a carbon tax is introduced? Or if cost of digging for more raw materials also increases? Doesn't that change everything?

If we can look at them as "Aluminum Cans" so to speak, can we get there in half the time perhaps? There's a lot of iron in those junkers that could go right into batteries for example. At some point the raw values will cross usable value at transport, and instead of sending them to Mexico or a junk yard for parts, maybe the meltdown is a better choice, especially the engine block or frames. At least that's what I hope!
 
May I make a suggestion?

SMR's YT video on diversification is WELL worth your time to watch . . .


Had I known the content of the video years ago I'd likely have another seven-figures worth of TSLA . . . BUT I foolishly bought the BS of diversification hook, line, and sinker. It kept me in some remarkably poor stocks for far, far too long and the opportunity cost of NOT investing TSLA has been huge.

Let this be a lesson for all investors.
It's a good video and I don't disagree, but let me play the contrarian for a minute as I think it's healthy to consider other viewpoints.

After high school I spent 8 years of my life in university. No time, inclination, or money to learn about investing then.

I then spent 4 years working for someone else. Learning my craft, networking, getting started in life after school and paying back student loans took up most of my time and money in that phase.

Next I started my own company. Worked Elon hours and poured all my resources into this venture. Most business startups fail. No time or energy to learn much about investing during this phase either. Also most money was left in the business to grow it and ensure its success (a form of investing to be sure, just ask Elon).

Then we had kids. Add parenting to the 80 hour work weeks and also add the additional expense of raising a family!

All I really knew about financial literacy was what I learned from reading "The Wealthy Barber" (thanks Dad for that present). I made it a goal to not borrow money other than for a mortgage and to finance my business; to spend less than I earned; and to attempt to maximize my investments in tax-advantaged accounts. I stayed true to these goals. However, as explained above, I was too busy to research what to invest in and it seemed like a daunting task so I simply bought into the diversified Boglehead approach (before I knew it was a thing). That approach allowed me to weather the Dot.com bubble, the 07-08 crash and to build toward a safe nest that I could retire comfortably on and a very successful business that provided a decent income and job security. Selling the business would hopefully provide the icing on the cake for retirement.

That it worked for me and it works for many in the FIRE movement is a testament to diversification's success. It is probably the best way to leverage the power of investments to grow wealth and enable financial independence. It allows the average investor to likely outperform the safer places to park money without taking on too much risk and has a much better chance of earning returns faster than inflation can erode them. But sadly, that's about it. At best, if you're good at saving you'll have enough to continue your lifestyle into retirement and maybe even be able to retire somewhat earlier than some of your peers. Mediocre returns with minimal downside.

I was aware of Apple - my first computer was an Apple II+. I was familiar with Microsoft, bought books from Amazon when it was simply an online bookstore, used Google multiple times daily, etc. but I didn't have the time nor the energy to devote to researching those companies to figure out what separated them from Gateway, Nokia, BeOS and Alta Vista. I couldn't figure out who the winners and losers would be. In hindsight it looks simple and survivorship bias is a real thing.

Knowing that I could have followed my gut and invested in those winners, but didn't and missed out on huge gains by simply being "diversified" in my investments made me not want to miss out on the next big thing. I got interested in Tesla in the Roadster days and when they got close to rolling out the Model 3 I finally decided to hitch onto TSLA as an investment as I was sure it would be revolutionary and I knew that I had to get in before it was obvious to everyone in order to achieve the large gains I was hoping to achieve. This also happened to be the time we made our last mortgage payment. From that day on I decided to invest I put all the money I wasn't putting into mortgage payments into TSLA as well as any future investments. I still held onto my diversified investments though.

Tesla was still not guaranteed success so being diversified gave me the fall-back plan to hang on through Production Hell, the Mobileye split, the years of FUD and everything else Tesla pushed through. My non-TSLA investments allowed me to sleep at night even when TSLA wasn't performing as expected. Also, the internet allowed me to research Tesla more easily than I ever could have researched anything in the past. It permitted me to separate Tesla from Faraday Future and Nikola Motors in a way that I didn't have the resources to in the Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, etc. early days, and I finally had the time to do the research (and boy, does it ever take up time keeping up with TMC Investor's Roundtable ;)). Eventually TSLA did take off and we know how that went. My retirement looks much wealthier and will be coming much sooner than I ever thought it could.

So, full credit to those who don't diversify and go all-in. You've got bigger balls than I do and I'm happy for your success. At one point when we hit an ATH in 2020 I did the math on how much more money I would have had had I converted all my and my wife's investments into TSLA as well as sold the business and taken the proceeds from that and put it into TSLA and the number was >$35M! But much like those who run the math on what the money they spent on their 2013 Model S would be had they invested it into TSLA at the time, it's simply an academic endeavour. I never would have done that for a variety of reasons. No point lamenting what could have been. Instead, just contemplate the future. And with TSLA, it's looking incredibly bright! :cool:

And look at that. The hue of my TSLA stock ticker has changed since I started typing this. Yay!
 
Seems longer than what others have posted but I don't question your data (and I haven't digested it all). Here's something else to consider.

"How Much Is A Scrap Car Worth?

According to data from JunkCarMedics.com you can expect to get between $332 - $883 for your average junk car. For the month of November, the average value of a junk car was $626, which is an increase from a value of $569 in October."

It's probably US data but it's recent, and may not account for what the value is in say Mexico for example, where I know things can just keep going much past serviceable life. But at what point does someone melt it down for the raw materials, especially if a carbon tax is introduced? Or if cost of digging for more raw materials also increases? Doesn't that change everything?
...
I have looked at that. Once a car is at $500 or £500 or €500 the scrap value is just that, scrap. It is the scrap value that sets the floor on a used auto price. My own car doubles in value every time I put a new tyre on it, or more fuel in the tank ! (Yes, I'm in bangernomics territory). Fun fact(s) - it is about a week from your car going into the scrap yard to being drained, fully stripped down, cubed, and then shredded in the various waste streams. Go talk to your local scrappy if you want to know more.
 
It's a good video and I don't disagree, but let me play the contrarian for a minute as I think it's healthy to consider other viewpoints.

After high school I spent 8 years of my life in university. No time, inclination, or money to learn about investing then.

I then spent 4 years working for someone else. Learning my craft, networking, getting started in life after school and paying back student loans took up most of my time and money in that phase.

Next I started my own company. Worked Elon hours and poured all my resources into this venture. Most business startups fail. No time or energy to learn much about investing during this phase either. Also most money was left in the business to grow it and ensure its success (a form of investing to be sure, just ask Elon).

Then we had kids. Add parenting to the 80 hour work weeks and also add the additional expense of raising a family!

...

So, full credit to those who don't diversify and go all-in. You've got bigger balls than I do and I'm happy for your success. At one point when we hit an ATH in 2020 I did the math on how much more money I would have had had I converted all my and my wife's investments into TSLA as well as sold the business and taken the proceeds from that and put it into TSLA and the number was >$35M! But much like those who run the math on what the money they spent on their 2013 Model S would be had they invested it into TSLA at the time, it's simply an academic endeavour. I never would have done that for a variety of reasons. No point lamenting what could have been. Instead, just contemplate the future. And with TSLA, it's looking incredibly bright! :cool:

And look at that. The hue of my TSLA stock ticker has changed since I started typing this. Yay!

I had a similar path. However I diversified into TSLA :) here is what happened.

The moment my mortgage was almost finished I've realized two things:

1. Loose monetary policy was working against me, everyone who kept on leveraging up and upgrading houses was wining in asset inflation lottery, with no debt I was at loss by default.

2. I was not really diversified: big chunk of my net worth (house prices in Canada's major cities are very high) was tied to a single asset class, in a single currency and in a geography with uncertain growth prospects. Even years ago, Canadian economy had already have significant dependency on Oil Industry, declining productivity and excessive reliance on real estate.

To make monetary conditions work I had to take one debt, preferably tax deductible debt and invest it in a productive asset/s uncorrelated to my house.

To diversify I had to short CAD, short Real Estate, and go long on something inversely correlated with the future of Oil. Shiller PE was already high which stopped me from going all in on US index funds, at the same time TSLA future was global and inversely correlated with Oil... a perfect hedge ;)
So I went 1/2 Into indexes and 1/2 into TSLA ... for diversification.

Then (...eventually) it went 25X and normally that would be time to diversify but:
first I could not sell because I detest paying taxes
... and then I joined this cult with its online forum and there is no way I am selling now :)
 
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I bought both of mine with cash and regret nothing. Financing a car isn't always the best way, especially if like me you might want to modify it in the future. I also just worked out what they cost me as a % of my current TSLA holding and I'm even less bothered now. ;)

My Model 3s are assets which have been depreciating remarkably slowly. If they were a pile of cash I'd buy more chairs immediately, but I like having some assets I can call my own.
It cost me ~50% of my porfolio in early 2020. That would have been a nice sum up to now... :(
 
It's a good video and I don't disagree, but let me play the contrarian for a minute as I think it's healthy to consider other viewpoints.

After high school I spent 8 years of my life in university. No time, inclination, or money to learn about investing then.

I then spent 4 years working for someone else. Learning my craft, networking, getting started in life after school and paying back student loans took up most of my time and money in that phase.

Next I started my own company. Worked Elon hours and poured all my resources into this venture. Most business startups fail. No time or energy to learn much about investing during this phase either. Also most money was left in the business to grow it and ensure its success (a form of investing to be sure, just ask Elon).

Then we had kids. Add parenting to the 80 hour work weeks and also add the additional expense of raising a family!

All I really knew about financial literacy was what I learned from reading "The Wealthy Barber" (thanks Dad for that present). I made it a goal to not borrow money other than for a mortgage and to finance my business; to spend less than I earned; and to attempt to maximize my investments in tax-advantaged accounts. I stayed true to these goals. However, as explained above, I was too busy to research what to invest in and it seemed like a daunting task so I simply bought into the diversified Boglehead approach (before I knew it was a thing). That approach allowed me to weather the Dot.com bubble, the 07-08 crash and to build toward a safe nest that I could retire comfortably on and a very successful business that provided a decent income and job security. Selling the business would hopefully provide the icing on the cake for retirement.

That it worked for me and it works for many in the FIRE movement is a testament to diversification's success. It is probably the best way to leverage the power of investments to grow wealth and enable financial independence. It allows the average investor to likely outperform the safer places to park money without taking on too much risk and has a much better chance of earning returns faster than inflation can erode them. But sadly, that's about it. At best, if you're good at saving you'll have enough to continue your lifestyle into retirement and maybe even be able to retire somewhat earlier than some of your peers. Mediocre returns with minimal downside.

I was aware of Apple - my first computer was an Apple II+. I was familiar with Microsoft, bought books from Amazon when it was simply an online bookstore, used Google multiple times daily, etc. but I didn't have the time nor the energy to devote to researching those companies to figure out what separated them from Gateway, Nokia, BeOS and Alta Vista. I couldn't figure out who the winners and losers would be. In hindsight it looks simple and survivorship bias is a real thing.

Knowing that I could have followed my gut and invested in those winners, but didn't and missed out on huge gains by simply being "diversified" in my investments made me not want to miss out on the next big thing. I got interested in Tesla in the Roadster days and when they got close to rolling out the Model 3 I finally decided to hitch onto TSLA as an investment as I was sure it would be revolutionary and I knew that I had to get in before it was obvious to everyone in order to achieve the large gains I was hoping to achieve. This also happened to be the time we made our last mortgage payment. From that day on I decided to invest I put all the money I wasn't putting into mortgage payments into TSLA as well as any future investments. I still held onto my diversified investments though.

Tesla was still not guaranteed success so being diversified gave me the fall-back plan to hang on through Production Hell, the Mobileye split, the years of FUD and everything else Tesla pushed through. My non-TSLA investments allowed me to sleep at night even when TSLA wasn't performing as expected. Also, the internet allowed me to research Tesla more easily than I ever could have researched anything in the past. It permitted me to separate Tesla from Faraday Future and Nikola Motors in a way that I didn't have the resources to in the Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, etc. early days, and I finally had the time to do the research (and boy, does it ever take up time keeping up with TMC Investor's Roundtable ;)). Eventually TSLA did take off and we know how that went. My retirement looks much wealthier and will be coming much sooner than I ever thought it could.

So, full credit to those who don't diversify and go all-in. You've got bigger balls than I do and I'm happy for your success. At one point when we hit an ATH in 2020 I did the math on how much more money I would have had had I converted all my and my wife's investments into TSLA as well as sold the business and taken the proceeds from that and put it into TSLA and the number was >$35M! But much like those who run the math on what the money they spent on their 2013 Model S would be had they invested it into TSLA at the time, it's simply an academic endeavour. I never would have done that for a variety of reasons. No point lamenting what could have been. Instead, just contemplate the future. And with TSLA, it's looking incredibly bright! :cool:

And look at that. The hue of my TSLA stock ticker has changed since I started typing this. Yay!

Screen Shot 2021-12-29 at 4.09.55 PM.png
 
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It's a good video and I don't disagree, but let me play the contrarian for a minute as I think it's healthy to consider other viewpoints.

After high school I spent 8 years of my life in university. No time, inclination, or money to learn about investing then.

I then spent 4 years working for someone else. Learning my craft, networking, getting started in life after school and paying back student loans took up most of my time and money in that phase.

Next I started my own company. Worked Elon hours and poured all my resources into this venture. Most business startups fail. No time or energy to learn much about investing during this phase either. Also most money was left in the business to grow it and ensure its success (a form of investing to be sure, just ask Elon).

Then we had kids. Add parenting to the 80 hour work weeks and also add the additional expense of raising a family!

All I really knew about financial literacy was what I learned from reading "The Wealthy Barber" (thanks Dad for that present). I made it a goal to not borrow money other than for a mortgage and to finance my business; to spend less than I earned; and to attempt to maximize my investments in tax-advantaged accounts. I stayed true to these goals. However, as explained above, I was too busy to research what to invest in and it seemed like a daunting task so I simply bought into the diversified Boglehead approach (before I knew it was a thing). That approach allowed me to weather the Dot.com bubble, the 07-08 crash and to build toward a safe nest that I could retire comfortably on and a very successful business that provided a decent income and job security. Selling the business would hopefully provide the icing on the cake for retirement.

That it worked for me and it works for many in the FIRE movement is a testament to diversification's success. It is probably the best way to leverage the power of investments to grow wealth and enable financial independence. It allows the average investor to likely outperform the safer places to park money without taking on too much risk and has a much better chance of earning returns faster than inflation can erode them. But sadly, that's about it. At best, if you're good at saving you'll have enough to continue your lifestyle into retirement and maybe even be able to retire somewhat earlier than some of your peers. Mediocre returns with minimal downside.

I was aware of Apple - my first computer was an Apple II+. I was familiar with Microsoft, bought books from Amazon when it was simply an online bookstore, used Google multiple times daily, etc. but I didn't have the time nor the energy to devote to researching those companies to figure out what separated them from Gateway, Nokia, BeOS and Alta Vista. I couldn't figure out who the winners and losers would be. In hindsight it looks simple and survivorship bias is a real thing.

Knowing that I could have followed my gut and invested in those winners, but didn't and missed out on huge gains by simply being "diversified" in my investments made me not want to miss out on the next big thing. I got interested in Tesla in the Roadster days and when they got close to rolling out the Model 3 I finally decided to hitch onto TSLA as an investment as I was sure it would be revolutionary and I knew that I had to get in before it was obvious to everyone in order to achieve the large gains I was hoping to achieve. This also happened to be the time we made our last mortgage payment. From that day on I decided to invest I put all the money I wasn't putting into mortgage payments into TSLA as well as any future investments. I still held onto my diversified investments though.

Tesla was still not guaranteed success so being diversified gave me the fall-back plan to hang on through Production Hell, the Mobileye split, the years of FUD and everything else Tesla pushed through. My non-TSLA investments allowed me to sleep at night even when TSLA wasn't performing as expected. Also, the internet allowed me to research Tesla more easily than I ever could have researched anything in the past. It permitted me to separate Tesla from Faraday Future and Nikola Motors in a way that I didn't have the resources to in the Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, etc. early days, and I finally had the time to do the research (and boy, does it ever take up time keeping up with TMC Investor's Roundtable ;)). Eventually TSLA did take off and we know how that went. My retirement looks much wealthier and will be coming much sooner than I ever thought it could.

So, full credit to those who don't diversify and go all-in. You've got bigger balls than I do and I'm happy for your success. At one point when we hit an ATH in 2020 I did the math on how much more money I would have had had I converted all my and my wife's investments into TSLA as well as sold the business and taken the proceeds from that and put it into TSLA and the number was >$35M! But much like those who run the math on what the money they spent on their 2013 Model S would be had they invested it into TSLA at the time, it's simply an academic endeavour. I never would have done that for a variety of reasons. No point lamenting what could have been. Instead, just contemplate the future. And with TSLA, it's looking incredibly bright! :cool:

And look at that. The hue of my TSLA stock ticker has changed since I started typing this. Yay!
That was a super thoughtful post. If I was ever going to like people, you’d have a chance of making the likable list just based on that post.

No matter your journey to get to the right place at the right time, I feel you probably deserve to have done so.
 
However Musk is on record as saying he thinks by the time Tesla get to 20m/yr the others will only reach 10m/yr.
Elon is saying that because he wants to raise of the level of ambition outside of China.

For ambition inside China we have things like:-

If we are going to project the volume of EVs for sale in 2030, we need to know the ambition of BYD, CATL and Tesla.

I can't think of any reason why the combined ambition of BYD and CATL will not at least match Tesla.

Then if we look at who is building battery factories now, and who is building them fastest, the answer is mostly BYD and CATL in China.

So who has the new 120 GWh CATL factory in their model?

Who knows how many more factories CATL and BYD will build over the next 5-10 years?

We might assume the limitation at some point in time will be raw materials, but no experienced battery manufacturer spends billions of dollars building a new factory without knowing where the raw materials for production are coming from.

So there is likely a lot of action behind the scenes locking in long term raw material supply contracts with mine off-take agreements, when know these funding arrangements will get new mines built and we know billions of dollars are being invested in new battery factories worldwide.

We know about Tesla locking on long term raw material supply contracts, again I say it is reasonable to assume that the combined ambition of CATL and BYD at least matches Tesla, so it is very likely they are also active in securing raw materials.

In this game of musical chairs, there is only one chair, there is no money for any other chair, but everyone is prepared to invest big for at shot at this chair.
And to sit of the chair you need batteries, batteries, batteries, nothing else matters.
 
End of the year investment for me:

1. MYP (red/black)
2. some more TSLA

This is the Tesla and TSLA investment thread.

Both 1. and 2. I consider investments.

I plan to get the car early 2022, so I would be delighted to get one of the early Berlin cars. Sell after 6 months for a profit.

The TSLA will never be sold. Well never say never: after Elon sold his share.

I wonder which (1 or 2) will perform better. $$ wise #1, but as a ride #2 cannot be beat (they don't deliver MS or MX in Germany at this time. MS is on order, MYP should carry me over until it is delivered.

Done my part. See you all next year.
 
If you thought the markup on that f150 was bad the other day Mercedes dealer says...

6bj18ifogi881.jpg
I have a friend who sells auto loans for a large bank. He says he’s seeing 50K fees for Jeep’s 😳 then again a friend in San Diego went to a Mercedes’ dealer and saw a 180K “market adjustment” on a Maybach…. Making hay before the meteor hits the dealerships into extinction
 

Tesla currently has 1,460 employees at its gigafactory in South Buffalo. In exchange for $950 million in subsidies, Tesla had to meet a mandate to employ 1,460 workers