Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cherry Wine]

Unless I am not reading your situation correctly, this looks like a disaster. I hope I am wrong. Good luck with it.

It stings, but I'll be fine. Thanks.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Thought id share this, got this from a bloomberg reporter:
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She checks out...what do yall think?

My advice:

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Sigh, disappointed at Karenrei with that statement. Yes Elon is a liability to short term stock movements because he is a risk taker.

However if we take a step back, Elon pretty much guided that Asp wouldn't drop from here but only increase. That's like in no body's model. So yes he has up the stake on the risk/reward prospect of Tesla and is frustrating for people sick of the volatility of Tesla especially in a high volatility macro environment.

Karen just needs to zoom out. Elon's been on pretty much all the calls from $17 to $4,220 pre-split. That's nota liability for investors IMO. You get the whole package or nothing Karen!

 

[Dangerous Fish]

You know when you're lost in the park and you really hope you're going in the right direction...

 

[larmor]

I don't understand the negative sentiment for EM on the conference call: he delivered a product roadmap and combined with a pivot shift which would be more profitable than any other new product to date. FSD software is getting ready for payout after years of dev and the taking the same software and basic hardware repurpose it to a bot which can make factories more productive. Sounds like a win win and taken with some serious EQ or business EQ (if there is such a thing) and comments from EM that the revenue from these ventures will be staggering-- yet the market wants an el cheapo tesla. This would takes years and years to turn a profit. Still waiting for the el cheapo iphone? so am i, but apple has found a way to make more revenue without super high volume product.

 

[Remster32]

Here is Deutsche Bank's follow-up note on their callback with Tesla IR. Lots of good nuggets in here that come straight from Tesla. Some of my highlights:

1. Tesla believes it can bring down the cost of existing M3 and MY considerably; these models can serve cheaper markets with more economical prices in the future. Another reason to de-prioritize the Model 2 for now.
2. Nothing is set in stone with the company's strategy, meaning Model 2 is not shelved indefinitely if it makes sense to produce it in the future.
3. Expedited costs along with warranty/recall costs amounted to about $360 million of the total $700 million headwind (with the remaining $340 million related to payroll tax impact from Elon's compensation plan),
4. Management views Optimus as a side project. They hope to complete a prototype this year and have it first handle menial tasks at Tesla facilities before marketing it to other companies in the years ahead.

 

[FireMedic]

Elon just liked this tweet thread. So did I.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1487021726542225417

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1487121182155550725

Bullish

 

[Cherry Wine]

Here is Deutsche Bank's follow-up note on their callback with Tesla IR. Lots of good nuggets in here that come straight from Tesla. Some of my highlights:

1. Tesla believes it can bring down the cost of existing M3 and MY considerably; these models can serve cheaper markets with more economical prices in the future. Another reason to de-prioritize the Model 2 for now.
2. Nothing is set in stone with the company's strategy, meaning Model 2 is not shelved indefinitely if it makes sense to produce it in the future.
3. Expedited costs along with warranty/recall costs amounted to about $360 million of the total $700 million headwind (with the remaining $340 million related to payroll tax impact from Elon's compensation plan),
4. Management views Optimus as a side project. They hope to complete a prototype this year and have it first handle menial tasks at Tesla facilities before marketing it to other companies in the years ahead.

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The stock should recover (if macros hold up) as analysts continue to have these conversations with Tesla IR and that information filters back out to institutions. Shame that this clarification was needed.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

The reactions post Q4 earnings seem to me to show the difference between long term and short term focus.

I think it's due to a paradigm shift from one that was understood to one that is uncertain.

The master plan was:

• Roadster fund Model S & X
• Model S&X fund Model 3&Y
• Model 3&Y fund the mass market car

Bullet point number 3 has suddenly changed to Models 3 & Y become some popular due to FSD we don't need the mass market car anymore. As far as the market is concerned, FSD isn't a sure thing and Elon's timelines aren't credible. This uncertainty isn't good for share price. My guess is we're stuck (under 900) until Tesla proves FSD.

 

[Mengy]

Was that an on demand or from thier stock video? I was under the impression that all of those were pre-programmed and did not work every time.

Correct, they are preprogramed routines at BD, not AI, and yep they do not work successfully every time.

I expect Tesla's bot with NN AI to be much more "dynamic" than Boston Dynamics robots.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1487121182155550725

Bullish

LOL Mr. Toyoda will go down with the ship first. As will some of the others. Diess might be the only one willing.

 

[82bert]

I think it's due to a paradigm shift from one that was understood to one that is uncertain.

The master plan was:

• Roadster fund Model S & X
• Model S&X fund Model 3&Y
• Model 3&Y fund the mass market car

Bullet point number 3 has suddenly changed to Models 3 & Y become some popular due to FSD we don't need the mass market car anymore. As far as the market is concerned, FSD isn't a sure thing and Elon's timelines aren't credible. This uncertainty isn't good for share price. My guess is we're stuck (under 900) until Tesla proves FSD.

Your bullet 3 is simply not accurate.

Roadster funded S and S helped to make 3/Y possible. Those are the mass market vehicles. Elon has already said Part 1 is complete. Part Deux clearly discusses autonomous vehicles. Please refer to this link:

Master Plan, Part Deux | Tesla

www.tesla.com

 

[Hock1]

It stings, but I'll be fine. Thanks.

Good. I hope you reconsider use of any options, particularly naked puts. GLTY

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I would tell her it's quite a coincidence she contacted you because you just happen to be writing a story focusing on reporters given assignments designed to make TSLA look like a risky investment and creating the impression that bad things happen to those who dare mess with such a stock.

Imma ask her "Can you please tell me why POTUS has such a hard time saying the word 'TESLA'? You're a reporter so you should be able to get the 'facts'

 

[thx1139]

This is all Elon had to say on the conf call for $TSLA not to tank

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Didnt they when they said that "Deliveries will grow comfortably above 50%". All Tesla said was that without supply constraints they would grow even faster and maybe indeed they would start delivering new products in 2022 rather then 2023. I mean Wall Street people are supposed to be thought workers.

 

[AKAlex]

I can't say how long it will take for the price to recover, but eventually reality will start to sink in and the price will get bid back up. My feeling is Elon purposefully disenfranchised anyone too idiotic to see what is happening right before their eyes. He really doesn't give a flying frack because he doesn't want to work for people like that (yes, he works for shareholders). He knows he is going to make a lot of people very wealthy and he thinks it's better if it goes to the kind of people he likes rather than those he despises. The beauty of all this is it didn't require anything but pure honesty from Elon. Sure, he might have hammed it up a little bit but essentially, he was giving us the straight scoop on how nutty the profits are going to be and giving the finger to those he doesn't like.

This seems to be the case to my eyes as well. It is better to encourage ownership by those who understand/support the longterm vision, rather than those looking for a quick buck.

 

[thx1139]

Snapped a pic this morning in Temecula California…

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What am I missing?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Didnt they when they said that "Deliveries will grow comfortably above 50%". All Tesla said was that without supply constraints they would grow even faster and maybe indeed they would start delivering new products in 2022 rather then 2023. I mean Wall Street people are supposed to be thought workers.

If it is not spelled out....they will not understand...actually....if Elon actually said what Tim Cook said, it would have been turned into a negative sentiment anyways.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

What am I missing?

The Hertz sticker....