Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1489743366602444800

So I'll relay some bits of info I've heard from the person I know at Tesla who told me about the all hands back in early 2021, so I know he's being up front. But take this as somewhat anecdotal to a region (North America). You can extrapolate how you want.

But he's saying Tesla has started to see a noticeable amount of trade in's of ID4 and Mach-E's and most interestingly, even trade in's that still have their tags on them and less than 1,000 miles on the odometer.

Probably couldn't figure out how the number 1 rated Electrify America's app work.

 

[Tyler34]

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Is “Freemont” like claws on a chalkboard for anyone else or just me?

Guilty. . Not sure why I do that. I could blame it on autocorrect but...yah no.

Cheers.

 

[OrthoSurg]

The current high oil prices are caused collusion on multiple levels, most of it illegal. They will let the prices crash when Tesla's ramps at their two newest factories are just starting to hit their stride in hopes of collapsing demand for EV's. It won't work but watch and see.

As usual, they will under-estimate demand for EV's, even in a world with cheap oil. They don't understand people want EV's, not because gas costs so much, but because EV propulsion offers a far superior driving experience and is also more convenient to live with.

I've had to drive my 2010 F-150 recently for the first time in a very long time. I've only driven it about 12 times in the last 3.5 years and not at all in the last year. It was shocking how disconnected my right foot felt from the actual torque applied to the ground. There is a delay in the fuel entering the cylinders once the injectors increase flows. Then there is another delay to accelerate the large heavy crankshaft and associated bits, then the power is delayed once again in the transmission as pressures build in the torque converter. The net result when driving up a steep gravel driveway is the power has a huge delay that I was so accustomed to from decades of driving ICE that it seemed like no delay at all - I just made do and was none the wiser. Before I adjusted to nearly instantaneous EV torque, I wasn't aware that this was bothersome. Now that I know better, I could never go back. Not because I'm in a hurry measured in fractions of a second but because it provides so much less control, and that matters in a number of situations, for example on a steep hill. The delayed feedback loop is like a bad dream where the monster is getting closer and closer but your legs are leaden and won't move any faster. It's a huge fault that has been forgiven for decades because no one knew any better way to do it.

This has a lot to do with I don't think even cheap oil will crash demand for EV's. There are many other reasons too.

Imagine how I felt trying to adapt to drive back a Nissan Rogue when they were changing some electric wire for my steering wheel on my Model Y. My wife almost got an accident going to the grocery store because she forgot she had to brake. The crazy car was even accelerating by itself when lifting our foot from the brake pedal, what a crazy feature. She even forgot we had to fill it with gas when we brought it back to the Hertz rental guy.

Gas price is now $1.59CAD/L here and will reach $1.80 this summer. I hope this will push the waiting list to get a Tesla to 2 years and make it the most wanted cars in the whole human history.

 

[Duffer]

The Times New Roman font has totally flummoxed me and I have no response.

Success! Hey, I didn't select Times New Roman but whatever works

 

[rallykeeper]

Surely Bloomberg got that wrong! It is the SEC which is the U.S. Federal Agency mandated with protecting investors:

"The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or the Commission is the national government regulatory agency charged with supervision over the corporate sector, the capital market participants, and the securities and investment instruments market, and the protection of the investing public."​

Guess not, huh? DOJ and FBI action then? They should raid some offices over at the SEC as well.

#SECdoYourJob

Certainly a promising development.

DOJ/FBI involvement means this is pretty serious stuff -- i.e., it's a criminal investigation. The SEC only has civil enforcement powers (e.g., they can sue you and get injunctions or monetary penalties).

It's the big dogs at the DOJ that get to send people to jail.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Kinda bummed about neither Austin or Berlin opening yet, I could use some cheering up.

Going to go drive V10.10

If they don't open in the next few weeks they may be better off holding deliveries until Q2 so Q1 financials aren't hit, particularly in the current market environment of punishing any reported weakness

 

[Webeevdrivers]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1489743366602444800

So I'll relay some bits of info I've heard from the person I know at Tesla who told me about the all hands back in early 2021, so I know he's being up front. But take this as somewhat anecdotal to a region (North America). You can extrapolate how you want.

But he's saying Tesla has started to see a noticeable amount of trade in's of ID4 and Mach-E's and most interestingly, even trade in's that still have their tags on them and less than 1,000 miles on the odometer.

The only EV not in scarce supply in BC is the Mustang Mach E. Lots of inventory and various models. Kinda weird.

Apparently the Surrey BC delivery centre is delivering 25 to 40 cars per day. There are I believe two other delivery centres in the lower mainland. Our new delivery window for our model Y is 6 th feb to 26 th feb. Guess we’ll find out soon enough for ourselves.

 

[Artful Dodger]

If they don't open in the next few weeks they may be better off holding deliveries until Q2 so Q1 financials aren't hit, particularly in the current market environment of punishing any reported weakness

Drew already committed Tesla to beginning deliveries from Austin in Q1, but I would have felt more comfortable hearing that from Zach (the CFO), who actually works with the numbers like amortization of capital equipment. Austin can not wait too long because Tesla has to begin using the ever-increasing production of 4680s coming from Kato Rd.

As for Berlin, I'll be fine if they begin even by Q2. Again, it's got to fit inside Tesla's 30% Auto gross margin goals. Whether that complete knock-down kit is assembled in Germany, or shipped to Germany from Shanghai makes ZERO difference to the total number of cars that Tesla will build in 2022 (and that number shall be 'comfortably over +50% from 2021').

Say it with me again folks: TESLA IS SUPPLY CONSTRAINED, not GA constrained. Mostly on the supply of chips. Notice I've been agitating for Tesla to acquire a semi-conductor company?

Cheers!

 

[jbcarioca]

Is this about panel gaps?

No, just margins. This one is the most profitable OEM but a wide margin. Not very high production though.

 

[MC3OZ]

I quoted this post because it points out, in fairly gentle terms, how the pivot from fossil fuels will look... initially.

Those of us here in this thread, at one time or another, have either commented about or hit the like/love button regarding the demise of fossil fuels. The collective "WE" mention aka gloss over the disruption that will surely happen, instead focusing on all of the real benefits of a world powered by renewable energy. Since the earnings call, there has been a vocal group that apparently had their knickers twisted because the stock price didn't go up. This has caused me to wonder; if TMC members react this way to the Market's standard reaction to yet again another excellent earnings statement, how are they going to react when disruption hits the economy?

The fossil fuels industry is accustomed to having many multiple billions in profit every day and historically been willing to do whatever is necessary to ensure that their profit level continues. Personally, I believe that Big Oil is still in the "throw some money at it so it goes away" phase when it comes to renewable energy. However, I also believe that the Hornsdale project along with what is beginning to happen in the ICE vehicle segment does have their attention.

The TMC Hive has an expansive wealth of knowledge when it comes to the financial sector. I'm sure there are those here that are extremely well versed in how Big Oil has become a part, either directly or indirectly, of all segments of the worldwide economy. When the inevitable disruption begins, are we ready (personally or financially) for the absolute "bleep" storm of FUD, investigations, and governmental interference directed at Tesla and every other EV or renewable energy provider?

To be fair, compared to me @Krugerrand opinion of human nature is all rainbows and kittens. Even so, Big Oil isn't going to go quietly into the night and neither will the the individuals, companies, financial institutions, or nations that have grown dependent on the flow of Petro dollars.

There are 5 parts to this question:-

1) Will the Fossil Fuel industry fight back and do all they can to slow the transition?
The answer here is Yes, and that is nothing new.
All mechanisms are being used, media, politics, regulation (via politics), it has been happening for 10 years, they don't have any new plays.

2) Will the demise of the Fossil Fuel industry create a massive wealth transfer?
Again the answer here is Yes? As the markets are forward looking, so some of this has already happened,
IMO a lot of the wealth transfer is going to be generational, from older retired people to young working people, cancelling out some of the wealth inequality caused by rapid increases in Real Estate prices. Whenever there are winners and losers, it is never guaranteed to be fair and just, but it always wise to try to be in the winners column,.

3) Will the demise of the Fossil Fuel Industry create unemployment?
No clear answer here, the transition to clean energy and transport will create some jobs, jobs will be lost in the Fossil Fuel industry.
With an aging population and post Covid many economies are trending toward a shortage of workers.,
Again winners and losers, with some politics being played out, but just the fear of losing jobs has already created that politics, and often reality is not as bad as expected.

4) Will the demise of the Fossil Fuel Industry shrink the economy?
Again no clear answer here, clean energy and transport lowers costs and improves productivity. It creates an outsized opportunity for the developing world to develop, Most things that we were doing with Fossil Fuels, we are now doing with clean energy for a lower price.
Lower priced energy creates business opportunities, just the act of replacing old with new, generates economic activity

5) Will the demise of the Fossil Fuel Industry create inflation or deflation?
It is mostly likely to create deflation, and an increase in productivity.
That includes everything Tesla is doing, Solar, Energy Storage Batteries, EVs, FSD, Robots.

In terms of fighting back there is one Gorilla the Fossil Fuel industry can't throw around, China, China wants to eliminate oil imports,
Clean energy and transport is cheaper and more productive, the Chinese will be well aware of that,

As far as politics goes, the US, Australia and the UK are bad examples. Politics is often toxic in our countries in part because one section of the media is toxic. Specifically the Murdoch media empire. The rest of the world has a different dynamic, I think the EU, NZ and a lot of Asian countries are more balanced sensible, and pragmatic. Again I don't think the Murdoch media empire can do anything new, or show more ambition. They have a long history of doing all they can, an aging audience demographic, and a real risk of sliding down the ladder to irrelevance, over the next 10-15 years, as they find it harder to engage a young audience.

Finally Russia and the Saudis will be doing all they can to remain relevant. But again they are already doing it, In truth the rest of the world will be more than happy to not buy oil and gas from them,.

 

[Tommy O]

Publish patents?
You sly dog, you.

Burst out laughing at this.

Sorry it’s OT but the mental imagery of a human seeing another attractive human then furiously publishing patents as a results is GD hilarious.

Nominated for Post(s) of Great Humor.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Interesting video by Sandy Munro concerning the rear cradle assy of a Plaid. Lots of useless Youtube content out there, but I find his pretty interesting and informative.

 

[wtlloyd]

If they don't open in the next few weeks they may be better off holding deliveries until Q2 so Q1 financials aren't hit, particularly in the current market environment of punishing any reported weakness

I'm sorry, this doesn't make any sense. The cash burn rate of an idle factory is tremendous, and the year-end total for production is what ultimately matters. What they roll out the door trumps what they can print.

 

[Beltsbear]

I'm sorry, this doesn't make any sense. The cash burn rate of an idle factory is tremendous, and the year-end total for production is what ultimately matters. What they roll out the door trumps what they can print.

They don’t idle the factory, they just don’t sell the cars until q2. By the way, i doubt they will hold them back, but does make the books look better.

 

[Thumper]

When I first ordered my new non-plaid S, delivery was May. Then it changed to June. I just checked and it is now April to May.

 

[Ogre]

They don’t idle the factory, they just don’t sell the cars until q2. By the way, i doubt they will hold them back, but does make the books look better.

Musk told everyone to ignore accounting and just deliver cars as expediently and cost effectively as possible.

I don’t think they will play games with inventory to make their margins look a little better either.

 

[dhanson865]

I don't think this has been mentioned, Tesla is rolling out FSD 10.10 Beta. It has a bunch of improvements as well as the removal of rolling-stops.

2021.44.30.15 Official Tesla Release Notes - Software Updates

Tesla software update 2021.44.30.15 (FSD Beta 10.10) includes Full Self-Driving (Beta) Suspension, FSD Beta v10.10 Release Notes, Full Self-Driving (Beta), Driving Visualization Improvements, Cabin Camera.

www.notateslaapp.com

Makes me wonder. To what standard do you need to "stop". 0 mph for 1 ms? 100ms (0.1 second)? 500ms (0.5 second)? 1 second? Is it enough to get the ABS sensor to say the tire stopped moving or are you going to have to hold for some externally observable amount of time?

Can we have a quick/short/low duration stop setting if we can't have a rolling stop setting?

 

[skybluecgreen]

When I first ordered my new non-plaid S, delivery was May. Then it changed to June. I just checked and it is now April to May.

I ordered an X on December 7 2020 and the rep expected delivery before the end of the year. The refresh was announced and my expected date changed to Feb/March 2021. The date has been postponed about 5 times since and now reads as March 2022. Based on what I read on the X forum I am very doubtful I will get it then (5 seat long range.)

I get it- there are supply chain issues but the 3 and Y deliveries keep exceeding expectations. Why do the S & X deliveries keep disappointing? The S & X have great margins. When it comes to scarce parts wouldn't Tesla prioritize the S &X?

The refreshed S & X are greatly improved and the best cars Tesla makes. EV acceptance has been growing along with the pool of wealthy individuals worldwide. There is huge demand for them based on expected delivery dates when ordering now. Why isn't Tesla ramping production of them with greater urgency? The potential sales #s for S&X would be far higher than it was in 2019/2020. Seems like such low hanging fruit for Tesla to pick and I don't get why they aren't.

 

[GOVA]

OT: As owners of 2x MYs I tell myself, now this is a heavenly driving machine. If I live long enough, just imagine what I can get from Tesla in 10 years having Plaid as 'alien' tech driving machine now.

I really hope we all can get together in 10 years, go to pages 16206 and just laugh at it.

Peace folks. We survived 2019 cnbsee 375 pre-split target, LOL. We'll survive this too.