Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Tesla didnt talk about charging speeds at battery day as far as I remember.

Sure they did, the slide was even labeled "The Challenge With Big Cells Is Supercharging":

1647204768743.png


Notice that they are graphing the "supercharging time increase" for using larger cells. And that even with the tabless technology there is still a slight increase in Supercharging time compared to the 2170 cells. Anyone that thinks they are going to charge faster is deluding themselves. (Another reason the Model S and X have stuck with the 18650 cells.)
 
Sure they did, the slide was even labeled "The Challenge With Big Cells Is Supercharging":
Sorry I should have said charging speed improvements. Yes they had that graph which covers it pretty well that there shouldnt be a marked increase due to tabless due to the increased size.

It leaves enough ambiguity around the subject though for a lot of speculation, as the changes for the 4680 had many aspects
 
Last edited:
FSD Beta 10.11 has Been released to employees, per WholeMarsCatalog on Twitter.

Release notes attached. A lot to be excited about: notably the first implementation of a transformer neural network doing the work of connecting the “bag of points”, which was previously handed to C++ to decipher.


C0A9FF26-57F2-4967-BC83-E12EB0A1F709.jpeg
 

Attachments

  • A8C9D533-A4AD-4091-9F7C-391719F57A53.jpeg
    A8C9D533-A4AD-4091-9F7C-391719F57A53.jpeg
    270.7 KB · Views: 57
Last edited:
Sure they did, the slide was even labeled "The Challenge With Big Cells Is Supercharging":


Notice that they are graphing the "supercharging time increase" for using larger cells. And that even with the tabless technology there is still a slight increase in Supercharging time compared to the 2170 cells. Anyone that thinks they are going to charge faster is deluding themselves. (Another reason the Model S and X have stuck with the 18650 cells.)
There is no increase in charging speed due to form factor.

Form factor wasn’t the only change announced at battery day though.

Tesla also announced significant changes to the cathode chemistry (aka Tesla Silicon) which will mean a significant speed up in charging times.

Its not clear if the cathode/ silicon changes will make it into the new cells or not.
 
Tesla also announced significant changes to the cathode chemistry (aka Tesla Silicon) which will mean a significant speed up in charging times.

Its not clear if the cathode/ silicon changes will make it into the new cells or not.

There is also no reason that those new chemistries can't be put in the 2170 and 18650 cells as well. (Panasonic has said that they have revised the formulation multiple times since they started making them.)
 
The new Y will offer noticable benefits for owner experience. The average Tesla customer is attracted primarily by driving performance and charging performance.

The 4680 structural pack will make for a lighter and much stiffer chassis with a reduced polar moment of inertia, giving better handling, better acceleration/braking, and reduced NVH (noise, vibration & harshness).

The 4680s also will potentially triple supercharging speed.

And they'll last much longer with less range degradation, meaning owners can keep the car longer or sell at a higher residual value.

Also the Austin and Berlin Ys will have the new paint shop design which we've heard is amazing and if I remember correctly they showed an example at the Berlin festival.
Wrong on many counts. The chassis may be a little stiffer, but not ”much” stiffer. NVH may even be worse. Charging speed will be quite similar nothing like a multiple of times better. No word at all on range degradation or how long they will last, probably very similar to existing 2170 vehicles.

weight will be less, which may improve braking and acceleration, though acceleration could be limited through software. But the difference is going to be about the weight of one person. 95% of owners would not notice.

4680 is about making more cars with fewer resources, which mostly translates into higher profits for Tesla.
 
There is also no reason that those new chemistries can't be put in the 2170 and 18650 cells as well. (Panasonic has said that they have revised the formulation multiple times since they started making them.)
Tesla makes the 4680s they are putting into the Model Y. They put their secret sauce into them. Every ounce of Teslas research goes into those cells.

Panasonic makes the 2170s which go into the rest of their cars. Tesla wants Panasonic to kick butt, but they aren’t giving away their trade secrets to make it happen.
 
Wrong on many counts. The chassis may be a little stiffer, but not ”much” stiffer. NVH may even be worse. Charging speed will be quite similar nothing like a multiple of times better. No word at all on range degradation or how long they will last, probably very similar to existing 2170 vehicles.

weight will be less, which may improve braking and acceleration, though acceleration could be limited through software. But the difference is going to be about the weight of one person. 95% of owners would not notice.

4680 is about making more cars with fewer resources, which mostly translates into higher profits for Tesla.
Bingo.

4680 has always been about higher production out of fewer resources and smaller footprint needed inside a factory
 
Tesla makes the 4680s they are putting into the Model Y. They put their secret sauce into them. Every ounce of Teslas research goes into those cells.

Panasonic makes the 2170s which go into the rest of their cars. Tesla wants Panasonic to kick butt, but they aren’t giving away their trade secrets to make it happen.

The chemistry in the 2170's is a joint venture/IP between tesla and Panasonic.

Tesla is working with several cell suppliers on 4680s which may involve some IP licence/transfer.
 
The chemistry in the 2170's is a joint venture/IP between tesla and Panasonic.

Tesla is working with several cell suppliers on 4680s which may involve some IP licence/transfer.
It is really unclear how much of Teslas secret sauce is making it back to their suppliers. For example seems pretty unlikely Tesla is sharing their dry battery electrode technology with anyone. Not sure about the silicon cathode doping.
 
It is really unclear how much of Teslas secret sauce is making it back to their suppliers. For example seems pretty unlikely Tesla is sharing their dry battery electrode technology with anyone. Not sure about the silicon cathode doping.

Again whilst true, tesla is going to want to be able to mix and match these cells, they wont care how panasonic make them, just that they perform the same as a tesla cell
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ogre
Just doing an Apple transcribe of the pic:


Early Access Program | FSD Beta 10.11
- Upgraded modeling of lane geometry from dense rasters ("bag of
points") to an autoregressive decoder that directly predicts and
connects "vector space" lanes point by point using a transformer
neural network. This enables us to predict crossing lanes, allows
computationally cheaper and less error prone post-processing, and
paves the way for predicting many other signals and their
relationships jointly and end-to-end.
- Use more accurate predictions of where vehicles are turning or
merging to reduce unnecessary slowdowns for vehicles that will not
cross our path.
• Improved right-of-way understanding if the map is inaccurate or
the car cannot follow the navigation. In particular, modeling
intersection extents is now entirely based on network predictions
and no longer uses map-based heuristics.
- Improved the precision of VRU detections by 44.9%, dramatically
reducing spurious false positive pedestrians and bicycles
(especially around tar seams, skid marks, and rain drops). This was
accomplished by increasing the data size of the next-gen
autolabeler, training network parameters that were previously
frozen, and modifying the network loss functions. We find that this
decreases the incidence of VRU-related false slowdowns.
- Reduced the predicted velocity error of very close-by
motorcycles, scooters, wheelchairs, and pedestrians by 63.6%
. To
do this, we introduced a new dataset of simulated adversarial high
speed VRU interactions. This update improves autopilot control
around fast-moving and cutting-in VRUs.
- Improved creeping profile with higher jerk when creeping sta
and ends.
Improved control for nearby obstacles by predicting continuc
distance to static geometry with the general static obstacle
network.
Reduced vehicle "parked" attribute error rate by 17%, achieve
increasing the dataset size by 14%. Also improved brake light
accuracy.
- Improved clear-to-go scenario velocity error by 5% and high
scenario velocity error by 10%,
achieved by tuning loss functic
targeted at improving performance in difficult scenarios.
- Improved detection and control for open car doors.
- Improved smoothness through turns by using an optimizatio
based approach to decide which road lines are irrelevant for c
given lateral and longitudinal acceleration and jerk limits as wt
vehicle kinematics.
- Improved stability of the FSD UI visualizations by optimizing
ethernet data transfer pipeline by 15%
.
Improved recall for vehicles directly behind ego, and improv
precision for vehicle detection network.

So 44.9%, 63,6%, 17%, 5%, 10% and 15%. Seems like crazy good numbers. But the first point is the most important. It’s pretty much an architecture change, I assume many other companies will not do that change for years if they decide to start that process today. Heck I think their engineers struggle to understand how that will even look like much less how to fit it into existing hardware that they have.
 
Last edited:
It is really unclear how much of Teslas secret sauce is making it back to their suppliers. For example seems pretty unlikely Tesla is sharing their dry battery electrode technology with anyone. Not sure about the silicon cathode doping.
Tesla wants the lowest cost highest density cells and they can't make them all on their own, why wouldn't they share?
 
Last edited:
Sure they did, the slide was even labeled "The Challenge With Big Cells Is Supercharging":

View attachment 780335

Notice that they are graphing the "supercharging time increase" for using larger cells. And that even with the tabless technology there is still a slight increase in Supercharging time compared to the 2170 cells. Anyone that thinks they are going to charge faster is deluding themselves. (Another reason the Model S and X have stuck with the 18650 cells.)
Big disageee. That graph is normalized to the performance of a 2170 tabbed versus a theoretical 21(70/80?) tabless cell to show how diameter increase impacts charge rate of the two designs. The increase you mention is a 46mm tabless vs 21mm tabless. It is not a direct comparison of 46mm tabless to 21mm tabbed.

If you doubt this, ask yourself: how likely is it that tabless does absolutely nothing to impact charge rate at the 21 mm diameter, even though it cuts what 90% of the path length for heat and electrical flow?
SmartSelect_20220313-204933_Firefox.jpg
 
OK, KS, NE, SD, ND, etc. Try going north-south with even one of the Supercharger locations out of action (Especially Perry or Salina, both of which have been down on occasion--I know, I got stuck there). East-west isn't too bad, but North-South needs LR+ for normal unworried travel. Double this in winter, or with an older Tesla.
+WY, MT, ID, UT, NV, eastern OR & WA.
 
But the first point is the most important. It’s pretty much an architecture change, I assume many other companies will not do that change for years if they decide to start that process today.
Elon agrees, he tweets: "Vector lanes is a particularly significant architectural improvement to Tesla AI"


This is one of the changes Elon alluded to in his Lex Fridman interview, in relation I think to vulnerable road users (I may be misremembering though). Lanes seems like a good place to start for this new kind of neural net task.

Another thing Elon talked about was the switch to labelling pre-processed visual data from the cameras to gain extra (infrared) information about the scene and shave off some processing time. Looking forward to that too (nothing mentioned about it in this release).
 
If you doubt this, ask yourself: how likely is it that tabless does absolutely nothing to impact charge rate at the 21 mm diameter, even though it cuts what 90% of the path length for heat and electrical flow?
View attachment 780473

I'm not an engineer, but this analysis has been made:

"Calculated charging time from 10% to 80% with the 4680 pack was reduced from 25 minutes to 15 minutes.--- The estimated maximum charging rate increased from 250 kW with 2170 pack to 275 kW with the 4680 pack. The 275 kW charging rate holds constant from 10% to 50% state of charge where we begin to taper the charging rate."