Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

a Whale needed to move their Call Options into the money to execute them.

Ouch this is painful. You need to figure this out for yourself. There's 2 groups. A whale holds Calls, bought some time ago at a much lower price. Whale then buys enough shares to lift the share price so their Call go in the money. Then executes Calls, and banks the money.

Oh, makes no difference. If you executed the Call then immediately sold the shares the result is the same: you bank money. Anybody who doesn't know the difference is like a kid running with scissors (not you; retail investors in general).

That only works if the price they paid for the calls is less than the amount the stock price is over the strike. Otherwise, the position was a net loss versus just buying shares at $1,150.
Today's high was $2.87 above $1,150.00. If they paid more than $2.86 for the option they lost money. For reference, a $400 OTM 29APR1500C is around $2.60 (about the same offset as 3 weeks ago, weeklies are only available 2 months out and more time means more cost). They would also have missed out on all the SP increase from $750 to $1,150.
High of the day for the 8APR1500C was $30.30 and at close they were still $4.50. Both more that max gap over the strike. If they exercised rather than selling the options, they lost money.

Now, if they pumped the stock to sell options, that would be profitable. Given the 63k traded vs previous 8k OI of the 1150C, much day trading was occurring.

 

[fiveten]

Playing the margin game…I was out of it but bought some today…plan on holding at least till the cyber rodeo, hoping for some good action

 

[Tyler34]

You all are arguing if todays moves were hedgies or wedgies or whales or what not. It's none of the above, todays price action was because people here started mentioning islands again yesterday. Tisk Tisk.

 

[CLK350]

This makes no sense.

First- you can execute options any time you want, ITM or OTM. (though there's almost always a better choice than executing them OTM- see point 2)

Second- if you want to acquire shares, and you hold 1150 calls, and the share price is below 1150, you'd typically be better off just BUYING the shares cheaper, and also selling your calls for whatever they're worth at the time. In fact- even when the price gets ABOVE 1150, on a Tuesday, you're often still better off just buying shares and selling the option because the option still has time value left in it. This will always be true in a non-taxable account for example... there may be certain tax reasons not to do this, if working in a taxable account, but YMMV.

Third, you explain no mechanism by which the whale moved those calls ITM in the first place- the Madoff exemption allows naked shorting- which would do the opposite of that

Well .. (and this is pure speculation, I could well be totally wrong there): the assumption here is that markets are transparent and fair.
Now, In another market we know that JP Morgan, HSBC and a slew of other banks were found to be guilty of collluding to fix interest rates.

Here it is conceivable that a few large funds could trade w/ ea other without real gains or losses and move the price where they want *for a short time* - as they simultaneously prevent other participants from trading. If the timing is tight enough few traders are impacted, and the few that are can blame a technical glitch for not being able to execute trades or getting bad executions.
And lucrative executions in the options market would be done .. for the "right" traders.

Or call this post entertainment (not entertaining too uncomfortable possibilities) if you prefer

 

[Zero CO2]

Rivian on track to meet production target of 25,000 vehicles

It produced 1,015 vehicles and delivered 920 last year after starting deliveries of its R1T pickup truck towards the end of the third quarter. Rivian said last month that supply-chain issues could cut its planned 2022 production in half to 25,000 vehicles. The company has a factory in Normal...

finance.yahoo.com

this seems optimistic ... also does Rivian have a delivery problem ? "The company said it had made 2,553 vehicles and delivered 1,227 cars in the first quarter. "
what no end of quarter push ... shows they are not lean and mean

 

[Ogre]

Rivian on track to meet production target of 25,000 vehicles

It produced 1,015 vehicles and delivered 920 last year after starting deliveries of its R1T pickup truck towards the end of the third quarter. Rivian said last month that supply-chain issues could cut its planned 2022 production in half to 25,000 vehicles. The company has a factory in Normal...

finance.yahoo.com

this seems optimistic ... also does Rivian have a delivery problem ? "The company said it had made 2,553 vehicles and delivered 1,227 cars in the first quarter. "
what no end of quarter push ... shows they are not lean and mean

When you crank out those kind of numbers you don’t have to go to Herculean efforts to look good.

.


Or maybe regardless of how Herculean your efforts are they still look rather meh. Your call.

 

[StealthP3D]

your giving them (Feds) a lot more credit than they deserve... but you make some interesting points ... i still like my distraction theory

I guess I don't understand your "distraction theory". That might have something to do with the fact you have never stated what it is. Who or what is the Twitter activity a distraction from? I thought you were saying it was a distraction from potential monopoly abuse charges.

 

[Knightshade]

Contracts expire. So Contract owners execture early, at the time that benefits them. Even better for large traders (whales) who can move the market to the point the benefits them, then jump off the Call wagon.

This suggests you don't understand how options actually work at all.

If you HOLD calls there's rarely any reason to execute them early because you're giving up their time value in exchange for nothing.

Even worse if you have to expend anything to "move it into the money" because then you lose THAT too.

Ouch this is painful. You need to figure this out for yourself.

I agree someone needs to figure it out, but it's not the other guy.

There's 2 groups. A whale holds Calls, bought some time ago at a much lower price. Whale then buys enough shares to lift the share price so their Call go in the money. Then executes Calls, and banks the money.

That's literally not how any of that works.

You do know you could just sell the call itself (that you claim they bought at a much lower price) if you want cash, rather than shares, right? In fact you'd be better off doing so since you get the time value out of it rather than executing it where you lose it.

If you ALSO want shares you can then use that money to buy them. Cheaper than the weird method you're suggesting they use.

Seriously, do your own education. I can't do that for you.

Clearly.

Oh, makes no difference. If you executed the Call then immediately sold the shares the result is the same

Yeah, it's not though. Because you just set fire to the remaining time value and got nothing for it. Plus wasted money "raising" the stock price....somehow...

Anybody who doesn't know the difference is like a kid running with scissors

Yes. It is. And you don't appear to know the difference.

This now way OT for Main, better in "The Wheel" or some such thread. I'm out of this convo though, because I do not play Options.

Again, clearly.


But I agree further discussion ought go to the other thread. C'mon over, looks like there's quite a lot you could learn.

 

[wipster]

Anybody heard of a new form factor for Superchargers? Just saw this on the web:

 

[Artful Dodger]

Now, In another market we know that JP Morgan, HSBC and a slew of other banks were found to be guilty of collluding to fix interest rates.

Here's more light reading:

• Madoff Wrote the SEC Rules
• "SEC Reveals Its EDGAR Database Was Hacked, Maybe Used For Illegal Trades"
• Bank of America 'systematically' misled clients about stock trades
• SEC.gov | SEC Charges S&P Dow Jones Indices for Failures Relating to Volatility-Related Index
• CFTC Orders JPMorgan to Pay Record $920 Million for Spoofing and Manipulation
• U.S. SEC enforcement head resigns after five days on the job

There are lot's more of these stories. JPMorgan alone was fined in both 2013 and 2020 for the same type of securities offense. Obviously, fines are ineffective deterrence by the #SEC.

 

[thesmokingman]

You should look up the fines Shitadel paid the last decade for a lol.

 

[MP3Mike]

Anybody heard of a new form factor for Superchargers? Just saw this on the web:

Not new. That is the Urban Supercharger format. (Limited to ~75kW per stall, no sharing.)

 

[wipster]

Not new. That is the Urban Supercharger format. (Limited to ~75kW per stall, no sharing.)

Thanks, first I've heard or seen of them!

 

[Stone_Watcher]

You all are arguing if todays moves were hedgies or wedgies or whales or what not. It's none of the above, todays price action was because people here started mentioning islands again yesterday. Tisk Tisk.

There was even a certain cat who had the audacity to post a photo of their mountain. This is obviously signs of a peak.

I may not have enough shares to buy a mountain, but after reflecting, I have the element of time on my side. Looking forward to see what Tesla becomes in the latter half of this century. 100 Trillion dollar valuations do not seems so far fetched when you stretch out your timeline. Hopefully we avoid total calamity in the interim.

Looking forward to the Cyber Rodeo and the Tesla Bot Demo.

 

[SageBrush]

There is substantial competitive advantage in EV technology. No 'moat' because there really is not such a thing. Just ask Kodak!
From cells to battery packs, from Battery Management Systems to motors, from Giga-castings to factory automation...BEV manufacturing, distribution and support are all very different than ICE. Even OTA updates are essential when the technologies are rapidly changing, not so much when they are not.

I'll explicitly add cell production to your list.

And on another level, although I tend to recoil at analogies to Apple it seems apt here. Even though Apple does not have any tech moats, their user experience built from an array of things garners them the lion's share of phone profits. Tesla feels the same to me.

 

[Accident]

Shanghai lockdown was extended indefinitely and to a larger area.

Wall Street estimates for Q2 are at 340k, but I imagine they’ll start to come down if we don’t hear news about a reopening soon.

 

[traxila]

Shanghai lockdown was extended indefinitely and to a larger area.

Wall Street estimates for Q2 are at 340k, but I imagine they’ll start to come down if we don’t hear news about a reopening soon.

I, for one, am not worried.

It is madness for them to keep this up much longer. They will reopen. The factory will go full tilt to catch up as best as it can ( I imagine there is a bit of stockpiling going on now for supplies that are bottlenecked) and now we have three other factories to pick up the slack.

Eh, call me an optimist. No one will give this much weight in a couple of weeks. We have bigger things to worry about…

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I'm lost. Is this bickering and complaining about the SP today? Fed voices froze the market and MM's jumped on the chance to bring SP closer to max pain. What's the problem? This will pass in a matter of a couple days, maybe a couple hours.

These people want QQQ shares. That is the goal and it won't change.

 

[Ogre]

I, for one, am not worried.

It is madness for them to keep this up much longer. They will reopen. The factory will go full tilt to catch up as best as it can ( I imagine there is a bit of stockpiling going on now for supplies that are bottlenecked) and now we have three other factories to pick up the slack.

Eh, call me an optimist. No one will give this much weight in a couple of weeks. We have bigger things to worry about…

It’s a good thing they have a new factory to pick up the slack.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1510711332366131209

Umm… make that 2 news factories to pick up the slack. They can’t just hand off inventory to the other locations, but if some supplies (chips) are still tightly constrained, they have enough spare capacity to use them and perhaps not suffer too much from this down-time.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

It’s a good thing they have a new factory to pick up the slack.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1510711332366131209

Umm… make that 2 news factories to pick up the slack. They can’t just hand off inventory to the other locations, but if some supplies (chips) are still tightly constrained, they have enough spare capacity to use them and perhaps not suffer too much from this down-time.

Exactly this. We are supply constrained and not production capacity constrained. With plenty of production capacity available, when shanghai is back online they can push to 100% cap and excess supply should be able to go to the other three factories to absorb until we hit max potential production for the year. That's what's important and not quarterly fluctuations due to macro factors.