Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

$300 million? Every single day?

Dang! I didn't even make that much on the best TSLA day of 2021!

That can't be a real number. We are talking about 24B dollars a quarter. The average consensus is at 17.5B for last Q. Will be absolutely insane beat so I don't know how Elon came up with that number

Edit: rewatched it, he said" Tesla is getting to this point, or will probably get to this point later this year". So it's a future guidance for this year and not current earnings.

 

[MartinAustin]

CNBC is turning around I see

Top Wall Street analysts like these stocks for the long-run amid market jitters

They said Dan Ives "expects the Austin and Berlin factories to drive Tesla to produce 2 million vehicles by the end of this year."

I believe he actually said he expects the annualised run rate on December 31st 2022 to be 2,000,000/yr.

 

[bkp_duke]

The Gen1 UMC, which hasn't been sold for a few years now, could deliver 40A. I don't remember now why they lowered the max amperage when they moved from Gen1 to Gen2. I still have one, it's the one that permanently is attached by my NEMA 14-50 outlet in my garage. The Gen2 UMC which came with my 3 lives permanently in the trunk for emergencies and travel.

Gen 1 UMC was 40A, correct. When I got my model 3 I sold the Gen 2 UMC and picked up a still-in-stock Gen 1 UMC for travel purposes. Always nice to plug in at a camp site and pull the full 40A.

But the old verion wall charger would do a bad-ass 80A if you had a dual-charger Model S/X at the time. We had one of these and truly was awesome to add 50+ miles of range per hour in a pinch.

 

[Knightshade]

100k beta testers, isn't this almost all the take rate for FSD? If there are 1m teslas sold in the U.S, we are already at 10% of the fleet. Have we even moved 1m Teslas in the US with HW 3?

per Troys info, as of end of 2021:

292,704 in North America delivered with FSD, out of 1,080,373 total NA deliveries since FSD was first sold in 2016.

We're probably somewhere in the very rough ballpark of 315k end of Q1?

And I guess there's some # of people not captured in the delivery survey data since they subscribe or bought it later... but Tesla mentioned subscriptions didn't appear to impact overall take rate so I don't think that's a huge # right now. Let's say 350k total?


So around 28.5% of eligible owners in the FSDBeta program.

 

[Singuy]

They said Dan Ives "expects the Austin and Berlin factories to drive Tesla to produce 2 million vehicles by the end of this year."

I believe he actually said he expects the annualised run rate on December 31st 2022 to be 2,000,000/yr.

The guy also guided for Tesla to sell like 10k model S refresh when everyone in the world knew production didn't even start that quarter.

 

[Singuy]

per Troys info, as of end of 2021:

292,704 in North America delivered with FSD, out of 1,080,373 total NA deliveries since FSD was first sold in 2016.

We're probably somewhere in the very rough ballpark of 325k end of Q1?

And I guess there's some # of people not captured in the delivery survey data since they subscribe or bought it later... but Tesla mentioned subscriptions didn't appear to impact overall take rate so I don't think that's a huge # right now. Let's say 350k total?


So around 28.5% of eligible owners in the FSDBeta program.

dang our take rate is 30%? I thought it was half of that.

 

[Knightshade]

dang our take rate is 30%? I thought it was half of that.

It varies over time... and by model- it has been as high as 50% combined a few quarters, as low as 12-14% others.

S/X rates obviously tend much higher than 3/Y rates (and Y has trended above 3 so far)

All rates (except Y since it didn't exist yet) peaked in Q2 2019 during the big EAP/FSD change and have declined steadily ever since as FSD pricing (and lately vehicle price too) have climbed without much in the way of added features in that time.

Q4 2021 we were down to about 10% on 3/Y combined (14% Y, 6% 3), and 45% for S/X.


Lots more data here:

https://www.patreon.com/posts/61172508

 

[dhanson865]

Ummm....this is awesome. Never seen something like this before....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1515462245534240769

Ironically the guy that posted that to twitter was walking 2 miles to a bar so he wasn't buying either product.

Oh and did everyone notice it's 15.9 cents per kWh? Would it have killed them to do 15.0 or 16.0?

Are they rounding to the full kWh, the tenth, the hundredth? Or are they just rounding up to the next cent?

Like if I charge up 1.4324402 kWh how many cents will they charge me with a 15.9 rate.

 

[Discoducky]

I guess Tesla has it wrong, EV's are not the future.

Electrification not the answer: Aston Martin

Aston Martin’s design boss also believes that internal combustion engines can become zero-emission power units

www.drive.com.au

“You will never be able to recharge an EV in two minutes like you refuel now..."

Good luck with that dude!

 

[Buckminster]

As someone with a Model 3 on order, I hate this decision to ditch the portable charger.

But as a Tesla investor. I'm loving it. Let's do some napkin math with round numbers and some guesswork for 2023:

Portable charger unit cost to Tesla: $100
2023 deliveries: 2 million
Shares outstanding: 1 billion
Tesla saves $200,000,000 ($0.20 per share)

But now assume 50% of customers buy the portable charger at checkout. That nets Tesla an extra $100 profit per car on 1 million cars (50% of 2 million).

So now we have $200,000,000 + $100,000,000 = $300,000,000 ($0.30 per share)

Now assume that with 100 million less portable chargers built, Tesla can use those precious chips to make 5% extra cars (100,000).
Average selling price: $60,000
Profit margin: 30%
Extra profit: 100,000 x 60,000 x 0.30 = $1,800,000,000

So now we have $1,800,000,000 + $200,000,000 + $100,00,00 = $2,100,000,000 ($2.10 per share)

Is my math right?

If so, based on my extra shareholder equity, I've made a lot more than I need to buy a charger for my Model 3.

Most of your profits come from the £1.8Bn third point. I doubt that the chip in the cable is the chip that Tesla are missing. I'm not even sure that Tesla are single chip constrained. Even if they are, building an extra 5% may not be possible and neither does delta gross profit translate to net profit 100%.

 

[Question]

So Elon in the interview is thinking in term of time dollars. He said Tesla makes 300M/day, 2B a week

What was the question and what was his exact quote? I watched 40min but didn't see that there

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Especially with Chevrolet advertising that a wall charger is included with the new Bolt at no charge.

Perhaps they should be providing a complimentary fire extinguisher with every Bolt purchase, instead.

 

[Gigapress]

I Honestly don’t think it makes a bit of difference either as a shareholder or as a future buyer.

It’s 200. Roughly 0.03% of the purchase price of the car. No clue what it cost for them to make, but they just dropped the price and Musk say they were including more adaptors. So likely not a big profit for sales.

It’s a blip nobody will think of in a year.

Off by a digit. It’s 0.3% of purchase price. Gross margin was 30% so this by itself would increase total gross profit by 30/0.3 = 1%.

The impact to total profitability is on the order of $100M/yr at current production rates.

 

[Gigapress]

dang our take rate is 30%? I thought it was half of that.

Much higher in N America than in other markets so global average is around 10% if I recall correctly.

 

[bobfunn]

That must be what the meeting was about in the interview where he mentions having a half hour meeting that saved Tesla a couple of hundred million.

 

[15Peter20]

I guess Tesla has it wrong, EV's are not the future.

Electrification not the answer: Aston Martin

Aston Martin’s design boss also believes that internal combustion engines can become zero-emission power units

www.drive.com.au

Presume he means synthetic fuels rather than biofuels. Either way:

 

[lascavarian]

To answer your question, it may be prudent to put a small percentage of your assets into Bitcoin as an inflation hedge.

Tesla won’t even accept any form of crypto for cars.

This is standard scam talk IMO. Back in the late 70‘s I considered investing in “investment grade diamonds” that were being pushed by a company in Portland, OR. I attended several pitches and even considered working for them. They used the same words, that every investor should have a few percent of their portfolio in diamonds To be prudent.

When I got into their employee pitches, they ran through the numbers of how even 1 or 2 percent participation would enormously inflate demand and drive prices. Sell it as prudent and cautious using an inflation scare and the limited supply of true investment quality diamonds.

The key was to keep repeating the phrase ”just one or two percent to be prudent. You tell them how smart investors (like them) are the early ones and will do the best. It was a scam method then and it is a scam now.

Tesla shares are rare too. The product is world class in a large market. I would never tell someone to put 1 or 2 percent in Tesla stock, I say a lot more because it is not a scam ploy. When someone says one or two percent to be prudent, RUN!

Luckily for me i hesitated a bit and just then the investment diamond market collapsed.

 

[15Peter20]

According to the UK's Daily Telegraph EM's attempts to take over Twitter will "open the door to VW and other EV makers (including Apple) to overtake Tesla".

Can't be bothered to link to this garbage but it is beyond laughable.

 

[Prunesquallor]

“You will never be able to recharge an EV in two minutes like you refuel now..."

Good luck with that dude!

Bond is in a hurry.

 

[Pezpunk]

Ironically the guy that posted that to twitter was walking 2 miles to a bar so he wasn't buying either product.

Oh and did everyone notice it's 15.9 cents per kWh? Would it have killed them to do 15.0 or 16.0?

Are they rounding to the full kWh, the tenth, the hundredth? Or are they just rounding up to the next cent?

Like if I charge up 1.4324402 kWh how many cents will they charge me with a 15.9 rate.

They may not have a choice -- the 9/10 is probably hard-wired into their display system, since gas is literally always X.xx 9/10.

I restore pinball machines, and on older machines with reels for keeping score, the ones-place "reel" is usually fake. It's just a zero on a curved piece of plastic, instead of an operating reel, because the smallest actual point increment is 10 points. Might be a similar situation here - the "9/10" isn't actually programmable, it's just a light made to look programmable.