Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Knightshade]

Tony Sagonachi(sp?j casting doubt on the 20 million vehicles goal saying 7 to 12 million is their expectation. Sees difficulties until their are more than 2 high volume models for the market.

I mean, I agree they're not gonna sell 20 million 3/Y vehicles a year.

But they've already mentioned 2 specific future vehicles to be made in volume in addition to those-- the Cybertruck and the robotaxi.

Plus 2 small volume ones, Semi and Roadster.

Plus some sort of van remains a very likely future product on top (though that isn't HUGE volume)

 

[CLK350]

Re @jbcarioca's post above on Tesla's genius marketing agree completely EXCEPT re the Twitter affair " ..Understanding how Tesla does marketing also explains why the Twitter affair is relevant to TSLA. Frankly, it matters little whether Elon takes control or does not. "

In my humble opinion, the Twitter deal is a BIG deal for Elon / Tesla :

Elon may have out of nowhere quirks, BUT he doesn't do big $ deals for fun or without a serious and very calculated plan
He may have lofty and laudable ambitions regarding Twitter, but he ALSO won't do this at a loss - quite the contrary actually.

Besides serving to protect the only platform he /Tesla uses effectively as PR (imagine if it continued on its path of being "normalized" by the PTB* crow - it is doing a great job so far misrepresenting Tesla/ Elon in most people's minds.
(*)Powers That Be, ie the 6 US corp who own 90% of all media in the US, and de facto control most people's opinions.

- by itself IF it succeeds in being just a better source of news/ entertainment than the current media, it would bring big profits

- in addition it does bring in the needed raw input for Tesla's AI DOJO venture, currently solving FSD, but next to help Optimus and also advanced AI/ DOJO as a service. This can be potentially as big if not bigger than Amazon's cloud services.

Edit: grammar, typos

So Elon's plan B is activated now - funding secured, he has lined up additional parties for a tender offer of $46.5B directly to Twitter shareholders

Elon Musk Says He Has $46.5 Billion in Funding for Twitter Bid

The financing commitments lend credibility to what had looked more like a personal lark than a bona fide takeover play.

www.wsj.com

 

[ZachF]

So for me, the important part is that Tesla has shown it doesn't deserve to get smashed like some of the other 2020 high flyers. I can go back to having my brain on autopilot and not worrying if a 5% dip is the start of a major crash or not. If we are flat or slightly down into Q2 I'll know I just need to wait a few months for it to rocket again.

I think the next high flyer that is in danger of getting it’s wings clipped is Amazon.

If you look into the data it’s actually surprisingly weak. 2021 Q4 revenue was only ~9% above 2020, and that’s a period where inflation was ~7%. The company is hugely exposed to rising gasoline and labor costs, and pretty much the entire increase in profit was from Rivian stock which they may have to write down. Honestly, they may even lose money this year.

If Amazon loses a bunch of money from Rivian write downs on top of continually declining operating income, guides much lower, and does a NFLX-style swan dive don’t be surprised. TSLA may leapfrog it on the Market cap totem pole soon.

 

[Snerruc]

As demonstrated by this from Supercharge.info for just part of April
supercharge.info

View attachment 796126

Remember, Tesla has upgraded a huge number of sites from 150 to 250. This has the same effect as building an additional station. Hardeeville SC used to be the only one that filled up on I95. Now it’s rarely full. No waiting. I’m guessing throughput at upgraded stations is up 20-30%.

 

[Knightshade]

I think the next high flyer that is in danger of getting it’s wings clipped is Amazon.

If you look into the data it’s actually surprisingly weak. 2021 Q4 revenue was only ~9% above 2020, and that’s a period where inflation was ~7%. The company is hugely exposed to rising gasoline and labor costs, and pretty much the entire increase in profit was from Rivian stock which they may have to write down. Honestly, they may even lose money this year.

If Amazon loses a bunch of money from Rivian write downs on top of continually declining operating income, guides much lower, and does a NFLX-style swan dive don’t be surprised. TSLA may leapfrog it on the Market cap totem pole soon.

Isn't most of their profit from AWS rather than retail? And AWS income and profits keep growing substantially.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Here we are the day after blowout earnings and 4/29 $1150c is now cheaper than yesterday. I don't know why I bother buying YOLO's before the even I think will move the stock.

This is all simply explained by physics 1st prinicples:

Search "Chaotic motion of 2-jointed Pendulums".

Hint: MMs are the 2nd joint.

Cheers!

 

[Mengy]

I mean, I agree they're not gonna sell 20 million 3/Y vehicles a year.

But they've already mentioned 2 specific future vehicles to be made in volume in addition to those-- the Cybertruck and the robotaxi.

Plus 2 small volume ones, Semi and Roadster.

Plus some sort of van remains a very likely future product on top (though that isn't HUGE volume)

I feel the robotaxi would ramp up quickly to become a large portion of that 20 million autos produced by 2030. I don't think Tesla will sell any robotaxis but rather keep them for Tesla and run the robotaxi fleet themselves. So in 2030 we might see something like this:

8.0 million Robotaxi's (which Tesla might not sell but keeps for Tesla)
3.5 million MY's
3.0 million M3's
2.0 million CT's
1.0 Vans
1.0 Semi's
0.5 Roadsters
0.5 MS
0.5 MX

Or something equivalent to that.

 

[bpjod]

Tony Sagonachi(sp?j casting doubt on the 20 million vehicles goal saying 7 to 12 million is their expectation. Sees difficulties until their are more than 2 high volume models for the market.

Must have missed the Cybertruck announcement.
Also, forgot to look at the calendar - there's still 8 years to launch another high volume model before the end of the decade.

 

[ZachF]

Isn't most of their profit from AWS rather than retail? And AWS income and profits keep growing substantially.

Most of Amazon’s profit came from Rivian stock, outside of that their core income has been declining every quarter since Q1 last year.

Income Statement for Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) from Morningstar.com

Get Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) historical quarterly, 5 year, or 10 year Income Statement information including revenue, sales, expenses, operating income, taxes, net income, and earnings per share.

financials.morningstar.com

 

[SOULPEDL]

Tender is the Night.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1517152138132033539

View attachment 796123

I don't think he shouldn't offer money, he should offer TSLA shares, much more valuable with good growth projected. That way those idiots can see their wealth grow either way. When he threatens to take their investments away (at a huge profit even), it's like me selling out into cash. No way, then what? He should offer Unobtainium for their Gold Nuggets, it will resonate with the greedy. I would chip in - let's clean up this mess.

 

[petit_bateau]

Thank you @colettimj (link) and @Usain (link) for pulling together the Supercharger numbers to confirm my suspicion that that roll out of additional superchargers isn't really accelerating (yet). Hopefully this will change as EVs are becoming more accepted by people/governments each day. Tesla cant build a new SuC location if the property owners don't allow them.

Thank you @The Accountant (link) and @JusRelax (link) for highlighting how much Wall Street and some research firms have ZERO insight on how much Tesla is going to grow. 2 new GigaFactories come online and WS raises their EPS by $0.08 (to $2.34) for Q2'22 after they got blown out of their estimates for Q1'22

View attachment 796103

The charger contention ratio slipping has been pretty constant for a long time, and shows no sign of reversing trend

 

[Knightshade]

I don't think he shouldn't offer money, he should offer TSLA shares, much more valuable with good growth projected. That way those idiots can see their wealth grow either way. When he threatens to take their investments away (at a huge profit even), it's like me selling out into cash. No way, then what? He should offer Unobtainium for their Gold Nuggets, it will resonate with the greedy. I would chip in - let's clean up this mess.

The board members own very very few shares of Twitter- so they'd be receiving very few TSLA shares in your suggestion.

It's kind of strange how little financial interest twitter board members have in the companys value increasing.

 

[AudubonB]

I have just posted an extremely Off Topic post in the "Off topic galore" thread. As many of you - I know - may be eligible to express an informed opinion, I do hope all take the opportunity to view it and, as appropriate, respond there. Thank you in advance....

Link: Off topic galore (post #1,347)

 

[Drumheller]

So walk down to close red today?

 

[AudubonB]

You must be fun at funerals and slasher thriller premieres.

 

[Singuy]

So walk down to close red today?

Depends on the fed.

 

[thx1139]

Grrr. Hate these mid day day traders

 

[Cherry Wine]

Is the market badly misinterpreting Elon's 13D filing to think that he's going to raise $21B for the purchase of TWTR through the sale of TSLA shares?

 

[Phobi]

Tesla bear says ‘there is no question’ of dramatic stock losses to come

Roth Capital Partners Managing Director Craig Irwin and Wedbush Securities Managing Director Dan Ives join Yahoo Finance Live to discuss Tesla stock amid strong earnings report data.

ca.finance.yahoo.com

lol Craig…

 

[ZenRockGarden]

One of my universal guidelines is "Never short a consistently profitable company". Tesla just showed crushingly strong financials - they will be like a rising tide that relentlessly wipes out attempts at digging temporary holes along their beach.