I think you’re right, but I don’t have your confidence. Tesla isn’t prescient. No individual or company is. Shanghai is about to allow another 1k+ manufacturing businesses to restart in the same closed loop system that Tesla Shanghai is currently under.Tesla/Elon answered this exact question on the earnings call. They would have already been aware of any limitations in their supply chain and Elon still said what he said.
Which makes me wonder, were any of these businesses critical to production at Tesla Shanghai? Maybe not directly so, maybe not at all.