Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Now, now is Trip counting trucks

Good point. If Trip Chowdhry and Gordon Johnson touched they'd both be annihilated.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Now, now is Trip counting trucks

Good point. If Trip Chowdhry and Gordon Johnson touched they'd both be annihilated.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This is a Tesla fan board, any discussion of funnelling excess renewable capacity to crypto production rather than stationary energy storage or EV charging should result in castration.

Since we're purely posting OT today....another interesting tidbit highlighting where we are in the regulatory spectrum. Apparently Spirit Airlines is allowed to decline a much higher takeover offer from JetBlue because there's greater risk of Justice crying monopoly. Lol.... nevermind the incestuous nature of both the Spirit and Frontier boards.

Regular investors simply don't matter anymore.

 

[StealthP3D]

yes - working out the math gets a large number of potential vehicles in the backlog.
However, the deposits do cover energy products as well as annual service agreements.
There also may be large deposits for the Roadster and Semi.
Some people keep claiming that the Cybertruck backlog exceed 1 million; I'm a bit skeptical about this but who knows?

Don't be skeptical of a million plus Cybertruck pre-orders. The evidence is clear, there absolutely are far more than a million. I think the number is actually a bit embarrassing for Tesla, at least until they demonstrate how fast they will be able to fill them. Of course, pre-orders only required $100 deposit each and many may not be converted to sales. But, just like Model 3 pre-orders, there will be far more new orders than cancelled pre-orders. Tesla will sell every Cybertruck they can make for many years to come. And the early evidence is this number will be very big indeed!

In terms of making 5-year earnings projections, I don't see the number of pre-orders as being useful. More importantly, how many will Tesla be able to make, how much will it cost Tesla to make each one and how fast will they ramp. All very difficult questions to get even close.

I have seen early evidence that Tesla plans to make Cybertrucks in shockingly high numbers (beyond various statements of Elon alluding to this). Look at the new Cybertruck pre-production prototypes seen at Giga Rodeo which displayed, for the first time, a distinct waviness to the flat panels that is uncharacteristic of 3 mm thick cold-rolled steel scored and bent on a sheet metal brake. What does this mean? The waviness makes me semi-confident that Tesla will not be buying cold-rolled stainless steel from the new foundry being built in Texas but, instead, is planning to "roll their own" at high speed and pressure from regular rolls of non-hardened stainless steel. Also pointing to that was a statement from last year by the new steel plants management that they were not planning to make/sell a lot of cold-rolled stainless steel.

I think the evidence points to another manufacturing edge that Tesla is developing in-house that will further make it impossible for anyone to "catch up" to Tesla in efficiency/speed of manufacture. I see regular old mill run soft stainless-steel flying down long lines of rollers under high pressure and being bent as it is progressively cold rolled into a hardened state. The hardening and bending would be combined into the same process requiring roller presses capable of huge pressure while bending corners instead of just flat sheets. It would be unheard of for an automaker to delve into a process like this that requires such huge capital expenditure and is more associated with heavy industry that plans production decades ahead rather than one car model at a time.

Such a production line, if it were successfully developed, would be a disruption of unimaginable proportions and could turn out hardened and bent panels at high-speed and at a fraction of the cost of buying the cold-rolled metal sheets and scoring and bending them on large, slow industrial sheet metal brakes. It opens the doors for future cars and vans to more resemble Cybertruck than Models S&X and increases production speed and volumes to levels legacy auto could only have sci-fi dreams about. It would make stamping and painting thin mild sheet steel look quaint and antiquated. Very last century.

This is about developing the machine that makes the machine and the evidence is right in front of our noses in the form of hardened panels that are uncharacteristically wavy. I do think the waviness will be minimized by further development of the bending/hardening processes. It's likely the panels we witnessed at Giga Rodeo were produced slowly, with great time and labor, by passing the panels repetitively through the same prototype machine that was custom adjusted for each pass. Eventually, they will have a very long line of high-speed hydraulic bending/roller presses continuously churning out finished hardened and bent panels with superior finish and consistency.

If anyone has a better explanation how 3 mm thick cold-rolled stainless-steel panels, bent on a sheet metal brake, could take on the wavy look of the ones seen at Giga Rodeo, please speak up because the early Cybertruck prototypes did not have this waviness and looked like they were scored and bent on a traditional sheet metal brake after they were hardened in a flat sheet, a slow process that is not continuous in nature and not very well-suited to very high production. While such a development might delay Cybertruck further, it would be a delay well justified by the superior economics of producing superior trucks at low cost and at high speed. Traditional auto has been sitting on their collective butts as they continue to build cheap, soft and very damage prone panels that require expensive painting to prevent rapid rusting, but they were not willing to step outside their comfort zone of planned obsolescence. How they can call their trucks "tough" is beyond me.

Legacy auto is shaking in their fancy shoes. Either that or they are even more ignorant than I assumed. Considering this further, it's probably the latter, at least on this particular development. Because to their way of thinking, this newly exhibited panel waviness is just further confirmation that Tesla lacks the kind of superior manufacturing skill and know-how they inherently possess and it's too late for them to wake up to the new reality.

 

[Artful Dodger]

It's my understanding that capacity is the upper bound of production. How could the Fremont factory be running above capacity? Please explain to me where I got it wrong.

Trip Chowdhry always runs above capacity.

 

[generalenthu]

This is a good article from Bloomberg talking about how the consumption of gasoline is very unequally distributed.

Liberal urban centers which are pro-EV have a much lower gasoline consumption per-capita than the conservative rural areas. As such its a good thing that Elon appeals more to the conservative class. This can be very helpful in making EVs mainstream.

America Needs Elon Musk — to Sell Electric Cars

Edit: this comes from Matt Yglesias, who is a senior fellow at the Niskanen Center, which seems to a be a left leaning Think-tank. Good stuff regardless of one's political bent.

 

[RationalOptimist]

Don't be skeptical of a million plus Cybertruck pre-orders. The evidence is clear, there absolutely are far more than a million. I think the number is actually a bit embarrassing for Tesla, at least until they demonstrate how fast they will be able to fill them. Of course, pre-orders only required $100 deposit each and many may not be converted to sales. But, just like Model 3 pre-orders, there will be far more new orders than cancelled pre-orders. Tesla will sell every Cybertruck they can make for many years to come. And the early evidence is this number will be very big indeed!

In terms of making 5-year earnings projections, I don't see the number of pre-orders as being useful. More importantly, how many will Tesla be able to make, how much will it cost Tesla to make each one and how fast will they ramp. All very difficult questions to get even close.

I have seen early evidence that Tesla plans to make Cybertrucks in shockingly high numbers (beyond various statements of Elon alluding to this). Look at the new Cybertruck pre-production prototypes seen at Giga Rodeo which displayed, for the first time, a distinct waviness to the flat panels that is uncharacteristic of 3 mm thick cold-rolled steel scored and bent on a sheet metal brake. What does this mean? The waviness makes me semi-confident that Tesla will not be buying cold-rolled stainless steel from the new foundry being built in Texas but, instead, is planning to "roll their own" at high speed and pressure from regular rolls of non-hardened stainless steel. Also pointing to that was a statement from last year by the new steel plants management that they were not planning to make/sell a lot of cold-rolled stainless steel.

I think the evidence points to another manufacturing edge that Tesla is developing in-house that will further make it impossible for anyone to "catch up" to Tesla in efficiency/speed of manufacture. I see regular old mill run soft stainless-steel flying down long lines of rollers under high pressure and being bent as it is progressively cold rolled into a hardened state. The hardening and bending would be combined into the same process requiring roller presses capable of huge pressure while bending corners instead of just flat sheets. It would be unheard of for an automaker to delve into a process like this that requires such huge capital expenditure and is more associated with heavy industry that plans production decades ahead rather than one car model at a time.

Such a production line, if it were successfully developed, would be a disruption of unimaginable proportions and could turn out hardened and bent panels at high-speed and at a fraction of the cost of buying the cold-rolled metal sheets and scoring and bending them on large, slow industrial sheet metal brakes. It opens the doors for future cars and vans to more resemble Cybertruck than Models S&X and increases production speed and volumes to levels legacy auto could only have sci-fi dreams about. It would make stamping and painting thin mild sheet steel look quaint and antiquated. Very last century.

This is about developing the machine that makes the machine and the evidence is right in front of our noses in the form of hardened panels that are uncharacteristically wavy. I do think the waviness will be minimized by further development of the bending/hardening processes. It's likely the panels we witnessed at Giga Rodeo were produced slowly, with great time and labor, by passing the panels repetitively through the same prototype machine that was custom adjusted for each pass. Eventually, they will have a very long line of high-speed hydraulic bending/roller presses continuously churning out finished hardened and bent panels with superior finish and consistency.

If anyone has a better explanation how 3 mm thick cold-rolled stainless-steel panels, bent on a sheet metal brake, could take on the wavy look of the ones seen at Giga Rodeo, please speak up because the early Cybertruck prototypes did not have this waviness and looked like they were scored and bent on a traditional sheet metal brake after they were hardened in a flat sheet, a slow process that is not continuous in nature and not very well-suited to very high production. While such a development might delay Cybertruck further, it would be a delay well justified by the superior economics of producing superior trucks at low cost and at high speed. Traditional auto has been sitting on their collective butts as they continue to build cheap, soft and very damage prone panels that require expensive painting to prevent rapid rusting, but they were not willing to step outside their comfort zone of planned obsolescence. How they can call their trucks "tough" is beyond me.

Legacy auto is shaking in their fancy shoes. Either that or they are even more ignorant than I assumed. Considering this further, it's probably the latter, at least on this particular development. Because to their way of thinking, this newly exhibited panel waviness is just further confirmation that Tesla lacks the kind of superior manufacturing skill and know-how they inherently possess and it's too late for them to wake up to the new reality.

I like this argument, and v much hope it's true. What is clear is that Elon and Tesla view one of their absolute core competitive edges as the ability to reinvent manufacturing. "What is the process which can churn out magical products at scale at a 30%+ margin?" Fundamental to the cybertruck's design is that it can, in principle, combine huge strength with greater ease of manufacturing. You may be describing here the key to how that can actually work.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Trip Chowdhry always runs above capacity.

No one should listen to whatever Trip is saying.

However, Tesla themselves had said that Fremont has been running under capacity for the past few quarters and they also said Fremont will be getting a 50% increase in production…..though they never specified timeframe other than over the next year ( this was two earnings call ago)

 

[Artful Dodger]

So, this is the same time period that the bank lawsuit against Tesla covers? The one about the convertible bonds or some such having the value changed?

I can’t keep up anymore. I need to go back and watch previous seasons again.

Elon gave the interview which is the source of the "single digits weeks" quote on Nov 25, 2018:

Elon Musk says Tesla came "within single-digit weeks" of death - Axios​

That was 17 days after Tesla appointed their new Board Chair. I think its fair to say it was on Elon's mind. He's clearly chafing at the oversight provision, which he feels is unwarranted and obtained under duress.

Meet Tesla's New Chairman, Who Has to Oversee Elon Musk - WSJ​

I expect the Shortzeller Commissar to go through a lot of revolving doors before E. is done with them. No debt, no leverage...

Cheers!

 

[dhanson865]

Elon just hit 90m followers on Twitter.

80m to 90m in an incredible 30 days! Buying Twitter will have helped more than a little.

Previous were:

80-90 in 30 days (2 April 22 to 2 May 22)
70-80 in 79 days (Jan 13th 22 to 2nd April 22)
60-70 in 116 days
50-60 in 170 days

Obama is #1 at 132m.

Elon making 100m will be a big news story in a month or so.

What?

I've never heard of anyone joining Twitter automatically having their brand new account auto-following Musk. I believe everyone has to manually do so like I did...

In the past if someone followed Elon it was related to his Tesla or SpaceX or maybe even crypto posts.

But if he is the head of Twitter and millions of people follow him because he is the head of twitter that is analogous to people being friends with Tom (myspace Tom).

If his twitter followers are double next year vs this year I wouldn't be crowing about that in terms of TSLA, I'd be crowing about that in terms of TWTR.

I think going forward running totals of Elon followers becomes more and more off topic and not a matter for this thread.

 

[PaintedPost]

I wonder how many other folks are like me and see both sides of this argument. I think there is indeed a reasonable argument to be made that "management should not be constrained in running of the company". As the villain in Total Recall (Arnold version) said to an erring minion, "... you don't think. I don't give you enough information to _think_." (paraphrased from memory). In other words, management has WAY more information than even this relatively well-informed forum to properly shape corporate decisions.

And yet... and yet. There is this mission.

Many folks on this forum over the last roller coaster weeks have said "when in doubt, zoom out". Let's zoom out to civilization-survival level. Does it help civilization to survive if we continue burning fossil fuels to solve the Bitcoin algorithm, created by humans, for humans, an algorithm designed by intent to get computationally more expensive (read: power-hungry) over time? What physical problem (food, transportation, etc.) does that actually help solve for us?
And we cannot honestly say "we'll only use renewables" to run these Bitcoin mines. Sure, maybe 10 years from now, and that's a big maybe. In the interim don't we need every solar panel and battery doing something that solves actual problems (offsetting carbon actually needed for food, transportation, etc.)
Right now, fossil fuel plants are literally having their lives extended (even some unshuttered IIRC) just to run this exact algorithm. I've read articles from reputable sources on this and can likely find the links if other folks haven't seen them. It is happening because there is money to be made.

Tesla has shown with all their undertakings that they advance the mission... some things more indirectly (like Insurance) but they absolutely still push the effort forward. This is admirable and is one of the reasons I think of, and treat, this company and investment like no other in my own decades of life. Their adherence to this mission gives me more hope for the future than almost anything in capitalism writ large right now.

Typing all this out lets me realize that this is my problem with "let the board decide". While I think the "100% divest Bitcoin now" option is pretty unsubtle and a hammer where perhaps a wrench (sorry, spanner) will do, setting a direction to divest Bitcoin over time would NOT go amiss, until such time as a huge renewable energy glut exists (may we please get there!)
YMMV of course, but as I understand it, the use Bitcoin in transactions is causing significant harm right now. I have trouble overlooking that.

Tesla stopped using BTC for transaction and now only holds the asset AFAIK. I'm definitely not takin a hard stance here. There is definitely a coal plant in my area (Finger Lakes Region NY) that is being run more than it should due to BTC mining. I would not be upset at all if Tesla sold their holdings.

Also - how tf do I like a post in here? Am I not yet allowed due to low number of posts by my account? I see no like button! Sorry for unrelated question.

 

[hobbes]

I was trying to figure out when we should hear when the meeting will occur.

As it was delayed last year to Oct 7th, we'll get 120 of notice *IF* it occurs earlier

Which is covered by this section:

The “Notice Period” is the period not less than 45 days nor more than 75 days prior to the one-year anniversary of the date on which Tesla mailed its proxy materials to stockholders for the previous year’s annual meeting of stckholders. As a result, the Notice Period for the 2022 annual meeting of stockholders will start on , 2022 and end on , 2022. However, if the date of the 2022 annual meeting of stockholders is advanced by more than 30 days prior to or delayed by more than 60 days after the one-year anniversary of the date of the 2021 Annual Meeting, the Notice Period will instead start 120 days prior to the 2022 annual meeting of stockholders and end on the later of (i) 90 days prior to such meeting or (ii) the 10th day following our first public announcement of the date of the 2022 annual meeting of stockholders.

Maybe I´m a bit slow here but I find this confusing.

"However, if the date of the 2022 annual meeting of stockholders is advanced by more than 30 days prior to or delayed by more than 60 days after the one-year anniversary of the date of the 2021 Annual Meeting, the Notice Period will instead start 120 days prior to the 2022 annual meeting of stockholders and end on the later of (i) 90 days prior to such meeting or (ii) the 10th day following our first public announcement of the date of the 2022 annual meeting of stockholders."

Latest meeting date for which the 120 day notice is activated for the case that date will be earlier than last year (which we expect) is Sep 7.
With the 120 day notice period that would mean we should know by May 10 (next Tue)

If not by next Tuesday, all we know is that the meeting will be later than Sep 7 but for the exact date we have to wait another 120-75=45 days which is June 24.

Am I getting this right?

 

[Usain]

That's not what he said either.
The banks told him they would pull their funding if he didn't settle the SEC case.
Minute 28

Elon is blaming the SEC. So I took it to mean that the SEC knew what was going on with the banks and used it as leverage to get him to settle.

 

[Nocturnal]

https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/ug7ce0

My friend sent me this yesterday, and is worried about it. Sounds like it’s totally made up not even close to possible, but I’m not smart enough to debunk it. There’s no way Elon has $140 billion worth of TSLA put up as collateral, right? Is Reddit even worse than Seeking Alpha? Anyone can post any BS they want?

Elon could dump everything except his DOGE and still be in the top 3000 people in the world by wealth.

 

[MadScientist23]

Tesla stopped using BTC for transaction and now only holds the asset AFAIK. I'm definitely not takin a hard stance here. There is definitely a coal plant in my area (Finger Lakes Region NY) that is being run more than it should due to BTC mining. I would not be upset at all if Tesla sold their holdings.

Also - how tf do I like a post in here? Am I not yet allowed due to low number of posts by my account? I see no like button! Sorry for unrelated question.

Due to the nature of BTC if TSLA just holds it, especially if they hold it offline (I'm sure they're doing for security reasons), there is no energy consumed. The energy is consumed when a transaction of BTC occurs. I would argue that selling it now is more detrimental in energy consumption than waiting until more of the grid is powered by renewable resources. There is no consumption by simply holding the BTC (because BTC is proof of work, not proof of Stake). It's also a hedge against some inflation and other measures so holding it isn't much different than holding Gold. I would vote our measly shares against an action to force selling it as selling it doesn't solve anything and is actually worse than holding.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Elon gave the interview which is the source of the "single digits weeks" quote on Nov 25, 2018:

Elon Musk says Tesla came "within single-digit weeks" of death - Axios​

That was 17 days after Tesla appointed their new Board Chair. I think its fair to say it was on Elon's mind. He's clearly chafing at the oversight provision, which he feels is unwarranted and obtained under duress.

Meet Tesla's New Chairman, Who Has to Oversee Elon Musk - WSJ​

I expect the Shortzeller Commissar to go through a lot of revolving doors before E. is done with them. No debt, no leverage...

Cheers!

I've never really liked the "near death" arguments Elon has made (particularly over the last 5 years). Elon has a ton of rich mates and there is a legion of wealthy fans. Near Death = some dilution from an equity capital raise.

 

[Usain]

Not sure why, almost none of these proposals pass. I have not voted my shares often, but if this comes up, I will be sure to vote against the proposal.

I would also vote against the proposal. I think Tesla was wrong to get involved in Bitcoin in the first place. But at least they eventually recognized the dubious environmental impact and pledged to sit on their holdings until that could be rectified. If Tesla dumps its Bitcoin, then more transactions will flow, which will be worse for the planet.

I'm much happier for Tesla to just keep the position it's got.

 

[Krugerrand]

Tell me you didn't watch the interview without telling me you didn't watch the interview...

Per Elon, SEC SF was fully aware that he had funding, but proceeded to file the suit anyway. I, also, am super <expletive> at SEC due to filing on Thursday which tanked the stock 14% on Friday, only to have it all settled over the weekend.

I couldn’t rewatch it in the moment, but I trusted you were correct. And mostly I was speaking out loud (and making a note to myself to rewatch when I could - and I still will) unable to remember how the conversation went, the same way so many others talk out loud here.

Again, thank you for finding the relevant information.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This is a good article from Bloomberg talking about how the consumption of gasoline is very unequally distributed.

Liberal urban centers which are pro-EV have a much lower gasoline consumption per-capita than the conservative rural areas. As such its a good thing that Elon appeals more to the conservative class. This can be very helpful in making EVs mainstream.

America Needs Elon Musk — to Sell Electric Cars

Edit: this comes from Matt Yglesias, who is a senior fellow at the Niskanen Center, which seems to a be a left leaning Think-tank. Good stuff regardless of one's political bent.

You're gonna see this kind of stuff a LOT as the transition accelerates. The point has merit, but the real reason it's pushed out in the media is to keep the rural vs urban dynamic in place for fossil fuels.

Makes it easier to argue(and for people to believe) EVs + renewables are just a liberal dream that doesn't work for real world rural applications.

IMO these pieces are more of a hindrance than a help to speed transition. In Philly people are talking a lot about energy justice and "access to solar", when in reality no one really needs "access" to renewables.

Once we've transitioned, everyone is free....regardless of ownership. That's how sustainable abundance works. No need to worry about the hoarding(or denial of) energy anymore.

 

[2daMoon]

In the past if someone followed Elon it was related to his Tesla or SpaceX or maybe even crypto posts.

But if he is the head of Twitter and millions of people follow him because he is the head of twitter that is analogous to people being friends with Tom (myspace Tom).

If his twitter followers are double next year vs this year I wouldn't be crowing about that in terms of TSLA, I'd be crowing about that in terms of TWTR.

I think going forward running totals of Elon followers becomes more and more off topic and not a matter for this thread.

Admittedly, I'm an old fuddy-duddy who doesn't subscribe to social media and may misunderstand how Twitter works, but...

...wouldn't any "follower" then see all of Elon's content, and therefore be exposed to Tesla, SpaceX, Boring, etc. news as much as Twitter specific and general fun posts he makes?

If so, this may result in significantly expanding his influence and the raising of awareness for the parallel goals of these companies to improve/preserve the human condition; the past and future growth of Tesla as an investment, and; reasons to favor supporting these causes as a by-product of simultaneously being both the Technoking and the Twitterking.

Perhaps I'm missing some key aspect of how Twitter "following" works, and if so, I look forward to correction.

Still, I don't see any clear downside for the overall Musk enterprises resulting from this. Quite the opposite.