Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bkp_duke]

OK, I have to ask about #2.

On the most recent call, Tesla said they were taking scrap aluminum, including that from ICE wheels, and melting it down and feeding it back into the production process.

That didn't sound compatible to me with the special proprietary formulation making the Gigapress possible/better. How can they achieve the special formulation when feeding it with random melted scrap?

What am I missing?

The proprietary part is pretty trace, by all accounts. Just add those bits in when things are in a molten state?

 

[Krugerrand]

For a non-growth, all profits to dividends (or cash pile) company, P/E allows comparisons to fixed rate vehicles.
P/E of 20 is roughly equivalent to 5% interest.
For Tesla which is none of that, it's less meaningful.

That’s what they want you to believe. I’m telling you, straight up, they decide whether the peanut butter is too smooth or too crunchy and will change their minds when it suits. For now, that metric works for them. Tomorrow, maybe not so much.

Seriously, who do you think came up with that specific set of parameters and deemed them relevant and connected to each other? It didn’t just magically appear. Somebody, somewhere, at some point, decided that’s what it should be in that specific set of circumstances and everyone else said okay let’s go with it for now.

It’s like the person who originally decided someone wanting a mortgage couldn’t qualify unless the monthly mortgage payment didn’t exceed 30% (or whatever) of their total monthly income. Yes, that’s a thing and it’s a sensible metric except when someone else wants to pull shenanigans and hand out mortgages at ridiculous, non sustainable rates to people who can’t afford them until 2008 happens. Regroup. Tighten the belt. Make like we won’t make the same mistake again. Wait for people to forget. Rinse and repeat.

So sure, use the established P/E metrics associated with various circumstances and companies for reference, but assume later today they could all change because there’s money to be skimmed.

Maybe this sounds paranoid or conspiracy theorist to you. I’ve had my already opened eyes widened.

 

[The Accountant]

It appears I may be more obstreperous than are you. Some have said that from time to time I may tend to be rigid in that respect. Your approach is worthy of respect, even from someone as doctrinaire as I may be.

I had to disambiguate 2 of your words by referring to a dictionary as they were abstruse.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

What are you thoughts on Austin and Berlin for Q2?

Shanghai's numbers at launch:
2,600 - Jan 2020
3,900 - Feb 2020
10,200 - Mar 2020
16,700 - Total Q1 2020

As you can see, month #3 is where we saw a step-change in production. We need to see Austin and Berlin humming in June.

Seems that both Berlin/Austin are behind those. It's hard to see what the weekly production rate out of Berlin was for April since the Europe sales data might have some delays in that when a production ramp is going on, the dynamic will always be that the last 1-2 weeks of the month will be highest weekly production for the month.....but those vehicles still have to be shipped out and then scheduled for delivery, so there's a delay. From what I've seen, only about 1,000-1,500 Berlin Y's were sold in April. But again, the delay between production and the vehicle being sold.

Austin's a complete wild card since the cars are being sold to employees and we don't get monthly sales anyways. I'm expecting something along the lines of 25,000 or so out of Berlin/Austin for Q2.

 

[wtlloyd]

OK, I have to ask about #2.

On the most recent call, Tesla said they were taking scrap aluminum, including that from ICE wheels, and melting it down and feeding it back into the production process.

That didn't sound compatible to me with the special proprietary formulation making the Gigapress possible/better. How can they achieve the special formulation when feeding it with random melted scrap?

What am I missing?

Yep, wondered about that. Didn't think beer cans and Reynolds Wrap could randomly be thrown into the kettle that produces a proprietary ingot.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Is $875 Max pain today?? Or does it even matter this week? LOL!

 

[JRP3]

Yep, wondered about that. Didn't think beer cans and Reynolds Wrap could randomly be thrown into the kettle that produces a proprietary ingot.

It's an alloy of which aluminum is the main component. They add other stuff.

 

[saniflash]

Is $875 Max pain today?? Or does it even matter this week? LOL!

$875 might be mathematical Max Pain but my assumption is that the MM's hedged the 800 & 850 Puts so my hypothesis is that a point landing on 900 would be the preferable outcome for our our highly appreciated, always helpful, liquidity-providing market participants.

 

[wtlloyd]

It's an alloy of which aluminum is the main component. They add other stuff.

Sure. But what's not in the mix is usually as or even more important to the end characteristics of the desired alloy. How can you just throw random scrap aluminum which is made up of who knows what additives and impurities? The idea that they are utilizing all types of scrap for gigacasting ingots surely must be over-simplification if not outright mis-direction.

 

[Krugerrand]

Me either. It just feels bad right now, like there's this apprehension over the entire market, even with companies beating estimates and doing very well.

‘It’? It is a bunch of zeros and ones floating around in space that you’ve given emotion to. There’s a word for that; anthropomorphism.

The people who created ‘it’ and are controlling ‘it’ are the ones responsible for making you (and ironically themselves sometimes) ‘feel like it’s bad right now’. They are laughing at you on their way to their multi-million dollar vacation homes.

You know what I feel? Anger. Vengefulness. I despise the dishonesty, the unfairness, and their ability to flourish and get away with it at the expense of others. And don’t be mistaken, it’s not at
my expense. I can outwit, outplay and outlast them. So I’m angry on behalf of others, which is super bizarre given my lack of opinion of people.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

‘It’? It is a bunch of zeros and ones floating around in space that you’ve given emotion to. There’s a word for that; anthropomorphism.

The people who created ‘it’ and are controlling ‘it’ are the ones responsible for making you (and ironically themselves sometimes) ‘feel like it’s bad right now’. They are laughing at you on their way to their multi-million dollar vacation homes.

You know what I feel? Anger. Vengefulness. I despise the dishonesty, the unfairness, and their ability to flourish and get away with it at the expense of others. And don’t be mistaken, it’s not at
my expense. I can outwit, outplay and outlast them. So I’m angry on behalf of others, which is super bizarre given my lack of opinion of people.

Mom would be livid with this type of anger!!!!

 

[madodel]

When my dad was teaching me about investing back when I was knee-high to a grasshopper, he said when interest rates go up stocks go down, when interest rates go down stocks go up. To my mind this is no biggie, and expected.

Yep. I didn't get serious into stocks until I sadly had to cash in my last 14+% longterm CD decades ago. But dumping equities for a 1.5% return? The lemmings will be returning soon.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

That’s what they want you to believe.

This needs to be everyone's first thought when making investment decisions these days. If following TSLA has taught us anything it's the need for hedge funds or MM's to zig and zag(create volatility) to accumulate shares for themselves and their clients. There was a JPMorgan commercial that ran everyday on BloombergTV, "Let us help you navigate volatility." Basically....."we're moving these markets artificially, pay us fees and we'll let you come along for the ride".

Warren Buffet, Vanguard Group, and just straight logic have dispelled the myth of hedge funds successfully picking stocks, so now they need a new game. That game is manufacturing volatility thru warped reality.

Taking advantage of market maker regulatory exceptions to make billions selling options. Then creating tops and bottoms of markets to move in and out of stocks at the right time. You're better off making the opposite move to what you think is right 80% of the time. That's the nature of things now "they" now make money and why HODLing and short term "diamond handing" is becoming such a popular theme. Far and away the best way to counteract their tactics is to do nothing.

Always remember, the best investor is a dead investor. Because dead investors don't believe anything.

 

[JRP3]

Sure. But what's not in the mix is usually as or even more important to the end characteristics of the desired alloy. How can you just throw random scrap aluminum which is made up of who knows what additives and impurities? The idea that they are utilizing all types of scrap for gigacasting ingots surely must be over-simplification if not outright mis-direction.

Agree it's oversimplification and they likely remove some impurities in the process.

 

[Nocturnal]

Yep. I didn't get serious into stocks until I sadly had to cash in my last 14+% longterm CD decades ago. But dumping equities for a 1.5% return? The lemmings will be returning soon.

1.5% nominal return. Real return is probably negative 3-5% here in the short term.

 

[Mengy]

You know what I feel? Anger. Vengefulness. I despise the dishonesty, the unfairness, and their ability to flourish and get away with it at the expense of others. And don’t be mistaken, it’s not at
my expense. I can outwit, outplay and outlast them. So I’m angry on behalf of others, which is super bizarre given my lack of opinion of people.

Eh, see none of that bothers me. I'm holding my TSLA shares long and all of this volatility doesn't really mean all that much to me, because I have good confidence where Tesla is going long term.

BUT, today, the market still feels apprehensive to me.

 

[MadScientist23]

That’s what they want you to believe. I’m telling you, straight up, they decide whether the peanut butter is too smooth or too crunchy and will change their minds when it suits. For now, that metric works for them. Tomorrow, maybe not so much.

Seriously, who do you think came up with that specific set of parameters and deemed them relevant and connected to each other? It didn’t just magically appear. Somebody, somewhere, at some point, decided that’s what it should be in that specific set of circumstances and everyone else said okay let’s go with it for now.

It’s like the person who originally decided someone wanting a mortgage couldn’t qualify unless the monthly mortgage payment didn’t exceed 30% (or whatever) of their total monthly income. Yes, that’s a thing and it’s a sensible metric except when someone else wants to pull shenanigans and hand out mortgages at ridiculous, non sustainable rates to people who can’t afford them until 2008 happens. Regroup. Tighten the belt. Make like we won’t make the same mistake again. Wait for people to forget. Rinse and repeat.

So sure, use the established P/E metrics associated with various circumstances and companies for reference, but assume later today they could all change because there’s money to be skimmed.

Maybe this sounds paranoid or conspiracy theorist to you. I’ve had my already opened eyes widened.

So the only thing I use this for is for comparative purposes of long term outlook. I look at the P/E of an interesting stock and where the company is to compare it against other investment possibilities or historical growth companies. I've been using this with TSLA and I guess we'll see where it stands over the test of time but I firmly believe that it's the best indicator for the value of the stock at the given point in time. To see the P/E of TSLA at this level is crazy in my opinion given where other disruptive companies have been valued at this point in their growth (AMZN for example). We should still easily be in the 240 range in my opinion for TSLA, understanding that the macro environment is influencing this so maybe more 180-200. This is just crazy value and I just want to scrounge up more cash to get further into it. Contemplating selling my 1 ton that I only use occasionally to put the money here. Already sold our camper that we seldom used to do just this last week. I'm only in my 30's and have 5 kids so finding the cash to get more invested isn't easy (which is partly why I'd love the price to be lower like after a split so i can throw 100-500 at it instead of having to find 1000's to get more shares).

 

[JustSaying]

If that is “letting the thing coast” investors in other Musk originated enterprises might not mind that he leaves. From Xoom in particular few even have a vague notion of the profitability of international consumer/small company FX, even beating typical bank rates by 300 Basis points or more. That is just one, the quite entertaining thing about these businesses is that they are often almost invisible to non-users..

Elon had a long term vision for X.com that went to PayPal. After he lost, a decade later they resuscitated his vision. Step by step. Of course he no longer was there, but his influence was durable.

And so it can be for Tesla, SpaceX etc even if he personally leaves. It’s always been interesting that even his fans don’t understand how durable his influences can be.

Walt Disney died in 1966 he had just turned 65, Disney World opened 5 years later. It is rumoured he left behind a note listing possible future projects.

 

[woodisgood]

This needs to be everyone's first thought when making investment decisions these days. If following TSLA has taught us anything it's the need for hedge funds or MM's to zig and zag(create volatility) to accumulate shares for themselves and their clients. There was a JPMorgan commercial that ran everyday on BloombergTV, "Let us help you navigate volatility." Basically....."we're moving these markets artificially, pay us fees and we'll let you come along for the ride".

Warren Buffet, Vanguard Group, and just straight logic have dispelled the myth of hedge funds successfully picking stocks, so now they need a new game. That game is manufacturing volatility thru warped reality.

Taking advantage of market maker regulatory exceptions to make billions selling options. Then creating tops and bottoms of markets to move in and out of stocks at the right time. You're better off making the opposite move to what you think is right 80% of the time. That's the nature of things now "they" now make money and why HODLing and short term "diamond handing" is becoming such a popular theme. Far and away the best way to counteract their tactics is to do nothing.

Always remember, the best investor is a dead investor. Because dead investors don't believe anything.

Big money used to mostly invest for the long-term. Now big money manufactures and plays volatility, because the returns are bigger and faster, especially when you can control the action. The pinnacle of greed and corruption.

Only sure way to thrive is HODL.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

If I judge that my time is not being well spent, I may "agree to disagree" with a poster who either cannot see what should be obvious or who (more likely) is playing Devil's advocate to try to cast doubt and tarnish Elon's image (and the value of TSLA stock) by portraying Elon as someone who is dumping TSLA shares because he secretly knows they will soon be worthless. I am not obligated to debate what should be obvious, namely that Elon's TSLA sales are not designed to maximize future value but are to enable him to spread his wings and no longer be cash poor and in debt to Wall Street (margin loans).

It's not clear what you are disagreeing with me on. It sure sounds like you are saying it is not my right to "agree to disagree" rather than debate the uninteresting. And I find those who question Elon's motives in selling TSLA shares very uninteresting. Sometimes the truth is so obvious there is no point in debating it with people who see it differently. Just because a person is correct does not mean they are obligated to debate. This is what "agreeing to disagree" means.

If you insist that Apollo did not actually land on the moon, that it was all staged in the Arizona desert, I will "agree to disagree" even though your position would be factually incorrect.

What? the moon landings were not faked ?