Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lascavarian]

They don't compete with one another and a license deal for AI technology would be mutually beneficial to both companies in a huge way.

So you seem to be saying it would be good for Twitter investors to subcontract out a core function of the company. Avoiding any hint of owning your core competencies always appeals to investors

/s

And it is a complete distraction from the best interest of Tesla which needs their best and brightest working on Teslas problems, not solving Twitters.

TWTR needs to own their core tech. Subcontracting out technology is a very poor business plan.

TWTR needs to buy another AI platform. This will help avoid lawsuits by shareholders at a minimum.

The only winner coming out of this mess will be Jack. Jack successfully gets EM to do what Jack wants. This is not in the interest of Tesla shareholders, Tesla employees or EM IMO.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

So you seem to be saying it would be good for Twitter investors to subcontract out a core function of the company. Avoiding any hint of owning your core competencies always appeals to investors

/s


TWTR needs to own their core tech. Subcontracting out technology is a very poor business plan.

TWTR needs to buy another AI platform. This will help avoid lawsuits by shareholders at a minimum.

The only winner coming out of this mess will be Jack. Jack successfully gets EM to do what Jack wants. This is not in the interest of Tesla shareholders, Tesla employees or EM IMO.

I agree, but find the reverse side even more important - Tesla should not be off trying to help Twitter figure out how to make radical-free-speech function in the real world as Elon's private pet project that brings $0.00 to Tesla's core business value.

 

[aubreymcfato]

You don't have to have blind devotion to understand that the CEO of Tesla can chose to spend his free time as he sees fit. Shareholders don't own every minute of Elon's life. He's an adult and knows what he has time for and what he doesn't.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding you and you are really saying you think that Elon is slacking off and doesn't work hard enough or long enough to create value for TSLA shareholders. If that's your belief, we'll just have to agree to disagree.

Well, "free time" is an assumption - not unreasonable one, but still an assumption, based on the fact that we've seen Elon devote his time 50/50 between SpaceX and Tesla, plus a 1-2% for the rest (Boring, Neuralink, etc.).
Twitter, though, is not one of those tiny startups, which had (still have?) 20-30 people staff.
Twitter has over 7000 employees, not a small pet project.
So, it is reasonable - imho, more reasonable - to think that for Elon to become Twitter CEO would mean reallocate a lot of time and mind and energy resources away from Tesla towards Twitter.
As a shareholder, not happy about that.

 

[Cattledog]

Small data point - We bought our Model Y in February 2021 for $51,990, today that car on the same configuration is $64,990. We have a LR Model X on order from a year or so ago, and are expecting to use the Model Y as trade-in. Every month, the trade-in value 'expires' and I have to input the mileage for them to revalue the trade-in (you would think they could just pull the data if I authorized them to to that, anyways...).

Every month or so when I do this the re-valued trade has crept up a few hundred dollars, so that when I last updated in late-January the trade in was something like $53,500.

Yesterday it came in at $58,900. Almost $7,000 more than when new, a 13% increase. This is for a 13-month old car with 7,000 miles on it.

Almost a coin toss if I should have sold TSLA to buy appreciating Teslas!

This must have something to do with investing in TSLA, so shared here...

Update - Two months and 1,000 miles later, the trade-in offer is $61,400...

 

[2daMoon]

I agree, but find the reverse side even more important - Tesla should not be off trying to help Twitter figure out how to make radical-free-speech function in the real world as Elon's private pet project that brings $0.00 to Tesla's core business value.

So, you're saying that Twitter has played zero part in spreading the word of Tesla and other Musk ventures over the years?

Please, let's be serious. Twitter is the primary tool being employed for disseminating information about Elon's companies.

This alone, as a marketing tool, has generated and will continue to generate money for Tesla. Most companies consider marketing a core business function that brings value.

Edit: This discussion should be continued in the Elon & Twitter thread.

 

[Khamul]

*cough* Elon & twitter *cough*

 

[Thekiwi]

OK, I have to ask about #2.

On the most recent call, Tesla said they were taking scrap aluminum, including that from ICE wheels, and melting it down and feeding it back into the production process.

That didn't sound compatible to me with the special proprietary formulation making the Gigapress possible/better. How can they achieve the special formulation when feeding it with random melted scrap?

What am I missing?

Others have replied mentioning the ability to remove impurities etc, but I would add what is maybe the more obvious answer is that Tesla uses them in the many other aluminium parts on Tesla vehicles that are done on traditional presses (like body panels/doors etc) rather than on the Gigapress.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Well, "free time" is an assumption - not unreasonable one, but still an assumption, based on the fact that we've seen Elon devote his time 50/50 between SpaceX and Tesla, plus a 1-2% for the rest (Boring, Neuralink, etc.).
Twitter, though, is not one of those tiny startups, which had (still have?) 20-30 people staff.
Twitter has over 7000 employees, not a small pet project.
So, it is reasonable - imho, more reasonable - to think that for Elon to become Twitter CEO would mean reallocate a lot of time and mind and energy resources away from Tesla towards Twitter.
As a shareholder, not happy about that.

I think it helps ease us away from the "key-person risk". Or at least the appearance of one. If he is devoting a significant amount of time to Twitter, then it shows that Tesla can manage fine without him. Do you really think that Tesla can't grow and prosper without Elon there? This would be a much scarier investment for me if I believed that.

 

[jhm]

You don't seem to understand the fundamental conflict of interest.

Tesla shareholders own the rights to Dojo because it was built at Tesla and Tesla is a public company. By being CEO, of both sides of the negotiation Elon has the authority to force a deal thru that Tesla never would have made with Twitter if he wasn't in charge of Tesla. That's the definition of cronyism and literally self-dealing. Even if the deal is fair, it risks lawsuits because it looks crooked unless whatever is being sold or licensed is made available to every other company at the same price including all of Twitters would-be competitors.

And it is a complete distraction from the best interest of Tesla which needs their best and brightest working on Teslas problems, not solving Twitters.

Related party transactions must be disclosed in SEC filings. Companies may try to describe these deals as being at arms-length terms. They must prove this to auditors. With these controls in place there is no need to describe it as "crooked" or unethical, unless these controls have be circumvented. Those who insist upon reading related party transactions as unethical inspite of proper disclosure are doing so for their own corrupt purpose or out of ignorant cynicism.

 

[aubreymcfato]

I think it helps ease us away from the "key-person risk". Or at least the appearance of one. If he is devoting a significant amount of time to Twitter, then it shows that Tesla can manage fine without him. Do you really think that Tesla can't grow and prosper without Elon there? This would be a much scarier investment for me if I believed that.

I agree we may be in a more mature stage right now: I actually don't know (neither any of us, for that matter. We can have hints and hypothesis but don't have any inside information about that).
I would welcome that, I'd love Tesla to be in such a solid position.
Still, Elon is so much involved (think about earnings calls, which he should have avoided but still don't) that I don't think we are there yet.
I'd be happy to be wrong about this.

 

[Krugerrand]

Well, "free time" is an assumption - not unreasonable one, but still an assumption, based on the fact that we've seen Elon devote his time 50/50 between SpaceX and Tesla, plus a 1-2% for the rest (Boring, Neuralink, etc.).
Twitter, though, is not one of those tiny startups, which had (still have?) 20-30 people staff.
Twitter has over 7000 employees, not a small pet project.
So, it is reasonable - imho, more reasonable - to think that for Elon to become Twitter CEO would mean reallocate a lot of time and mind and energy resources away from Tesla towards Twitter.
As a shareholder, not happy about that.

You may be right. I think you’re wrong.

It’s been a while, but incoming Zen: Life is happier, lighter, more appealing (pick positive word of choice you most relate to) if you wait for actual facts, results or outcomes before being unhappy.

 

[larmor]

Well, "free time" is an assumption - not unreasonable one, but still an assumption, based on the fact that we've seen Elon devote his time 50/50 between SpaceX and Tesla, plus a 1-2% for the rest (Boring, Neuralink, etc.).
Twitter, though, is not one of those tiny startups, which had (still have?) 20-30 people staff.
Twitter has over 7000 employees, not a small pet project.
So, it is reasonable - imho, more reasonable - to think that for Elon to become Twitter CEO would mean reallocate a lot of time and mind and energy resources away from Tesla towards Twitter.
As a shareholder, not happy about that.

Or the blueprint for car and battery factory have been optimized and really just need more of them and increase capacity of existing factories. And he trusts the team that is in place to make future growth and production will happend... Or FSD is nearing completion and tesla has all ready made the robotaxi. I think it is a bullish sign that elon has a hobby now.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I agree, but find the reverse side even more important - Tesla should not be off trying to help Twitter figure out how to make radical-free-speech function in the real world as Elon's private pet project that brings $0.00 to Tesla's core business value.

Can you define "radical free speach" for me?

Dan

 

[Ipcress]

Or the blueprint for car and battery factory have been optimized and really just need more of them and increase capacity of existing factories. And he trusts the team that is in place to make future growth and production will happend... Or FSD is nearing completion and tesla has all ready made the robotaxi. I think it is a bullish sign that elon has a hobby now.

I sure wish the hobby was EVTOL, or something more naturally related to Tesla/SpaceX that we could all cheer about, than social media. Yuk!

 

[Krugerrand]

Others have replied mentioning the ability to remove impurities etc, but I would add what is maybe the more obvious answer is that Tesla uses them in the many other aluminium parts on Tesla vehicles that are done on traditional presses (like body panels/doors etc) rather than on the Gigapress.

No chance used for A Class body panels. None. Zip. Zero. Nadda.

And exactly what impurities do people think need to be removed? A dollop of mustard from someone’s sandwich? Dust from the factory floor? Impurities like that will either burn off or rise to the surface and be skimmed off.

You know folks, Google is your friend, but let me summarize what likely is happening.

Aluminum from each ‘source’ will have its own ‘recipe’ and the final product they want will have its own ‘recipe’. They can weigh and measure all the various source aluminums and add to the ‘melting pot’ different amounts of each to maintain or obtain their desired ‘recipe’. They’ll start with mostly material of the desired ‘recipe’ and throw in measured amounts of the others. Not hard.

 

[Krugerrand]

I think it helps ease us away from the "key-person risk". Or at least the appearance of one. If he is devoting a significant amount of time to Twitter, then it shows that Tesla can manage fine without him. Do you really think that Tesla can't grow and prosper without Elon there? This would be a much scarier investment for me if I believed that.

It could also be argued that slowly showing the panicky people of the world that Tesla can indeed run without Elon, by him spending less and less and less time there, then the rest of us wouldn’t have to roll our eyes with yet another overly dramatic SP drop for no good reason. Wishful thinking at all, and far be it from me to take away another’s buying opportunity but I’m pretty much over the irrational rollercoaster ride at this point.

Oh, wait. You just said that. Where’s my coffee?!

 

[Sancho]

I sure wish the hobby was EVTOL, or something more naturally related to Tesla/SpaceX that we could all cheer about, than social media. Yuk!

Elon investing in EVTOL would be much worse. It would conflict with his core vision: all transport will be individualized vehicles, autonomously driven, underground.

(And rockets for longer jaunts)

 

[bkp_duke]

You don't seem to understand the fundamental conflict of interest.

Tesla shareholders own the rights to Dojo because it was built at Tesla and Tesla is a public company. By being CEO, of both sides of the negotiation Elon has the authority to force a deal thru that Tesla never would have made with Twitter if he wasn't in charge of Tesla. That's the definition of cronyism and literally self-dealing. Even if the deal is fair, it risks lawsuits because it looks crooked unless whatever is being sold or licensed is made available to every other company at the same price including all of Twitters would-be competitors.

And it is a complete distraction from the best interest of Tesla which needs their best and brightest working on Teslas problems, not solving Twitters.

This exact same argument was made regarding Solar City.

Guess who, just this week, won that lawsuit? Elon Musk.

The Judge declared that the deal was fair and just.

 

[Knightshade]

So you seem to be saying it would be good for Twitter investors to subcontract out a core function of the company. Avoiding any hint of owning your core competencies always appeals to investors

/s


TWTR needs to own their core tech. Subcontracting out technology is a very poor business plan.

TWTR needs to buy another AI platform. This will help avoid lawsuits by shareholders at a minimum.

The only winner coming out of this mess will be Jack. Jack successfully gets EM to do what Jack wants. This is not in the interest of Tesla shareholders, Tesla employees or EM IMO.

So one problem is people (possibly out of ignorance) keep conflating hardware and software.


Dojo is hardware

It's specialized to be especially fast at running certain software operations---in particular ones that are most useful for training certain types of neural networks... but someone has to give it that software to execute.

Currently this type of software is run on large GPU clusters (it's what Tesla themselves is using). Elon has stated that Dojos success is currently unknown, but will be measured by how it performs versus such GPU clusters

Tesla plans to run software on it they create, with the idea it'll run better/faster/etc on the custom hardware.


They have also said they might offer time on the hardware to others.


Who would have to bring their own- different- software.

And depending on how that software works, it might run better or worse than running on a giant GPU cluster....because the things it's doing may or may not be ideal for the specialized HW that is Dojo.



It's not like there's gonna be programmers at Tesla designing algorithms to read, understand, and act on tweets.

Those folks would be at twitter.

And a Dojo cluster might be an available option for them to rent time on to run their own software. Just as Amazon, Google, and others offer such clusters today for millions of companies to run their software on.

 

[EVMeister]

Speaking of Dojo, Tesla are suing a former engineer who worked on Dojo as he apparently copied company secrets to a personal device. Tesla sues former engineer who it claims retained company secrets about its supercomputer project on personal devices