thesmokingman
Active Member
Couch is getting real dry at this point but I managed another 5 chairs, nice at 744. lol it's like bittersweet symphony.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
My bad. Confused yield and rate. Forgot rate drops when demand is high on bonds.
I would not be surprised to see 400 before this is all over. Not saying we will. But... if SPY drops another 20% can't see the NAZ not following suit with another 30% and TSLA does have a higher BETA. Blah.Haha, man I'm really curious to as to how low they're going to let TSLA's TTM P/E go.............I'm getting myself positioned to buy more shares on margin.
Though I'm done with buying more options/LEAPS. Simply can't trust Elon to not do something that makes owning options 10X more stressful than owning stock, even stock on margin.
”In the last 19 bear markets, the average peak to trough decline has been 37% with an average duration of 289 days. If history were to repeat then today’s bear market ends in October 2022 with the S&P at 3000”
When will bear market end? In 6 months and S&P 500 at 3000, Bank of America says | Fortune
Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett looked at the last 19 bear markets to project when the current one will end—and where the S&P 500 will be when it does.
fortune.com
Everything is getting obliterate. Companies with great earnings; with beats on every metric gets smacked down. If you just have one slight negative thing to say - your stock gets cut in half in one day (PLTR)I never seen anything like this. There is no respect.
Anyone with cash left - good luck!!
Anyone with cash left - good luck!!
They say Vix needs to be 38 for capitulation to happen. So the fact that Vix is dropping makes today very annoying.
Sorry I know you're not fear mongering, but that's fear mongering lol. Nasdaq isn't dropping another 30%, period. It's only 18% above back where it was in Feb 2020. Wiping out all of the gains from the pandemic. But wait.....tech earnings have materially gone up quite a bit from Feb 2020. So the Nasdaq would actually much much cheaper than it was back in Feb 2020.
Same dynamic with S&P. It's like 17% above it's Feb 2020 higher. But earnings has gone up way more than 17% over the past 2 years. So the S&P would be much much cheaper on a fundamental basis.
For the S&P and the Nasdaq to go down to those levels you're mentioning, it would mean the S&P's P/E ratios would be just as low, if not lower than the P/E it had during the financial crisis......one of the worst crisis and recessions( really depression) in history.
As for TSLA specific, I can definitely see the 600's. Possibly 500's. The China covid lockdowns (and Elon's twitter mess) really happened at the absolute worst time for the stock. The stock is been weak against the macro's day after day now, regularly down 3-4X it's BETA and not even up 2X it's beta on the up days. It's trading about as weak as it gets right now. And what's worse is that there's zero positive catalyst coming up and plenty of FUD material until we get Q2 P/D numbers. Everyone better buckle up unfortunately
Nasdaq is now down 29% from it's peak, it's not far off from that 37% peak to trough decline.
The S&P is 18% but.........most of that is has been the fact that Apple/Microsoft are only down 19% and 22%. So both of those companies would have to roll over for the S&P to even get to a 30% drop.
Last edited:
With the markets behavior lately.....even a dog bed will suffice.
I agree they don't have good failsafes for thermal runaway, but the pouch cell technology is a root problem. They are simply more prone to this issue.
Panasonic: “We seeing continued strong demand from Tesla, for 2170 batteries, but also for faster development of the 4680.”
www.bloomberg.com
Panasonic Seeing Robust Tesla Demand for Batteries, Development
Panasonic Holdings Corp. is being asked by Tesla Inc. to speed up development of its next-generation 4680 batteries, said Hirokazu Umeda, chief financial officer.
www.bloomberg.com
At today's 11402 bottom, we we're ~100 points of the 200 week EMA for the Nasdaq. That has only been crossed once since 2012. That was during the pandemic drop and it only happened for one week. 2010 and 2011 each had 1 week below that time both fairly early out of the great recession. So we may have a little bit more to go, but odds are high that this was the bottom or the bottom will be slightly below 11300.
Now saying that, if we are in the midst of a 00/08 situation... none of that matters. I personally don't think we are, but I've been wrong many, many times before.
Now saying that, if we are in the midst of a 00/08 situation... none of that matters. I personally don't think we are, but I've been wrong many, many times before.
No one but the tesla board would know the answer to that question.
ZachF
Active Member
PE is now like 29x next year’s earnings… 
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Rivian (RIVN) is now down nearly 90% from its ATH 6 months ago.
Lucid (LCID) now down over 75% from its ATH a little over a year ago.
Nikola (NKLA) now down over 90% from its ATH in 2020.
Tesla (TSLA) now down about 39% from its ATH 6 months ago.
Lucid (LCID) now down over 75% from its ATH a little over a year ago.
Nikola (NKLA) now down over 90% from its ATH in 2020.
Tesla (TSLA) now down about 39% from its ATH 6 months ago.
Devil's advocate: if market participants are forward looking and therefore worried that a recession will decrease company earnings in upcoming quarters, could we not expect to see P/Es compress even more, despite what earnings have done over the past two years? (This is not in reference to TSLA, but the market / tech as a whole.)
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
