Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[henchman24]

Problem is that most people assume all EV/battery technology is the same regardless of who makes the car. Tesla has shown that their cars are very fire resistant, so there's a belief that other cars are equal. It doesn't help that only Teslas on fire make the news. It's an educate one person at a time kind of thing.

Yup... I think pouch cells are a real problem that have to get figured out for legacy automakers since they are convinced that is the way.

 

[thesmokingman]

Problem is that most people assume all EV/battery technology is the same regardless of who makes the car. Tesla has shown that their cars are very fire resistant, so there's a belief that other cars are equal. It doesn't help that only Teslas on fire make the news. It's an educate one person at a time kind of thing.

Actually I didn't even mention batteries so you're reading into what I wrote. The link is refers to Hyundai and Kia's ICE vehicles not EV. And on point I'm referring to the ignorance ICE drivers have. An EV catches fire and you won't hear the end of it. However in reality there's ICE cars catch fire every single day and no one bats an eye.

 

[thesmokingman]

Yup... I think pouch cells are a real problem that have to get figured out for legacy automakers since they are convinced that is the way.

It's not necessarily pouch cells but the fact that they don't have a failsafe, they've no way to combat thermal runaway. This is something Tesla figured out way back in 2006 which has been heavily documented. It just shows how not seriously legacies are taking battery tech, just farm it out like everything else lol.

 

[OrthoSurg]

When others are fearful it is time to be greedy.

Seems like my buy order of 20 shares at 756 went through today. I placed that buy order 3 months ago

 

[Discoducky]

The most surprising thing isn't that Hyundais or even BMWs catch fire, but that people ignore this fact and the recalls. This really highlights core competency or lack of.

FYI, this video isn't about BEVs, but rather ICE car fires from Kia and Hyundai Theta ii engines.

 

[MountainRatMat]

I keep having to drive my old Jeep when I know I will be driving anywhere that would cause my Safety score to go down (because of stopping at traffic lights that turn red when you are getting close and force you to use the brake pedal, for example).

I went through this exercise, got the FSD Beta, used it for a month or two, stopped using it because it wasn't fully baked, sold the car, bought a new tesla without FSD beta, and couldn't be happier.

My advice, drive your car, don't let your car drive you. The FSD Beta is fun at the beginning but it doesn't last.

Lots of off topic posts lately and I know this isn't helping so I'll throw in a little investing with it.

My personal take rate is 50% on FSD and dropping. In order for Tesla to realize the potential earnings from FSD it needs to be bulletproof (like radar Autopilot was). The date that happens is anyone's guess. Nobody knows...but when that day does come (2023, 2030, 2040?) $TSLA will be the most valuable company in the world assuming they get there first.

 

[HellsKitchen]

Guess I'll be putting my July-August Model Y on hold since the (formerly) 30% down payment is tied up in Tesla stock, bought at an average of about 900. Sucks.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I went through this exercise, got the FSD Beta, used it for a month or two, stopped using it because it wasn't fully baked, sold the car, bought a new tesla without FSD beta, and couldn't be happier.

My advice, drive your car, don't let your car drive you. The FSD Beta is fun at the beginning but it doesn't last.

Lots of off topic posts lately and I know this isn't helping so I'll throw in a little investing with it.

My personal take rate is 50% on FSD and dropping. In order for Tesla to realize the potential earnings from FSD it needs to be bulletproof (like radar Autopilot was). The date that happens is anyone's guess. Nobody knows...but when that day does come (2023, 2030, 2040?) $TSLA will be the most valuable company in the world assuming they get there first.

More like 25% and rising, but we're both guessing.
Not bulletproof. Humans aren't either, only need to beat them with a healthy, undisputed margin.
Plus, FSD data volume continues to accelerate. Data is King.

Edit: It's too early for you (and most people IMHO). But you'll be back

 

[thesmokingman]

Guess I'll be putting my July-August Model Y on hold since the (formerly) 30% down payment is tied up in Tesla stock, bought at an average of about 900. Sucks.

Buy more, average down and wait for the market to recover, profit.

I know its sounds easier said than done but...

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Wow....seems a little disheartening watching $TSLA go down 7+% from what it seems like on a daily basis. That being said...i have some couches to shake...be right back.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Nasdaq has another 3.75% down to get to 11,000. Insane that we're all the way here with the level of earning blasting out of some of these names.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Revisiting this with the CPI numbers now in, I think we're going to need at least another leg down and some more panic before the bottom is in. I'll look to add in the $600s if we get back there.

I see the market potentially going down another 5% or so, but today actually really feels like capitulation. Apple finally selling off.

The thing that really sucks about this situation when timing this (and using margin) is that you just know there's going to be massive FUD about Q2's number right up until the P/D numbers come out and then earnings.

On the flip side, the market is so oversold and TSLA's P/E is so low I can't help but think the bottom is in.

 

[MountainRatMat]

More like 25% and rising, but we're both guessing.
Not bulletproof. Humans aren't either, only need to beat them with a healthy, undisputed margin.
Plus, FSD data volume continues to accelerate. Data is King.

I have no idea what the broad take rate is on FSD, but I personally have bought 1 car with and 1 car without.

Agree with your statement about better than human...but some factor better, not just slightly better.

Data is great, how you use it is even better. I do believe Tesla does a good job using the data in a way that is fruitful.

 

[bkp_duke]

Even the rate on the 10yr is dropping with this drop.

I don't know how to interpret that, except that people aren't pulling money out of stocks to go to bonds. . .

 

[ZeApelido]

Guys, everyone in the world is gonna be so obese by 2030 no one will want a smaller car.

 

[elasalle]

Shuffled my way out of my Stock to Call conversions from a few days back. (Was hoping for CPI, but now SP dipped a lot so might as well take advantage of that as well)

Closed Dec 2000 CC's against all shares (sold $20 - closed today at $6)... needed to do the rest so I could do this step.
Closed all leaps and went back into shares. Overall lost ~75 shares .... will get em back once I can sell CC's again ... cheers!!

+ did the same in other account, can't believe it -- but I am actually up like 100+ shares in total not looking at the $$ value which of course stinks
CC's to the rescue once again ...

 

[Zero CO2]

Is this a good time to play dead?

 

[neverdone]

added 15 chairs ... sofa empty now

I had Buy limit orders at 790,780,770,760,750.
They have all hit.

 

[Singuy]

Even the rate on the 10yr is dropping with this drop.

I don't know how to interpret that, except that people aren't pulling money out of stocks to go to bonds. . .

Why would you think that?

Looks exactly like a fear play as gold and such is green and bond yield dropping(meaning mass bond buying right now).

 

[MikeAtkinson]

This conversation reminds me of Vernor Vinge's vision of something very similar (anyone else read that book? Was it Rainbow's End?)
In that future, there was a network of constantly circling robotaxis. Since (as in real life) a lot of the cyberworld already knows our whereabouts and can deduce our proclivities (at least en masse), there was always one ready exactly where and when you needed it. It was a rare inconvenience that you actually needed to summon a robotaxi, and even then it would not be far away.
The dude had interesting foresight IMHO.

Yes, Rainbow's End.

Vernor Vinge is an academic software engineer, we could engineer a Robotaxi network similar to what he imagined.

There is 100 years of research into this. Telephone exchanges, needed to be sized correctly to handle the expected traffic, even in the days of manually operated switchboards. Since then its been applied to all types of telecoms networks, including the internet, traffic, logistics, manufacturing, and many other fields. You can optimise for resources, wait times, peak and average load, etc. There is a whole body of mathematical theory to back it up, and optimisation techniques which scale to the whole world's population.

Conventional software would be capable of doing a Robotaxi network (I think this is what Vernor Vinge imagined), as would Nueral Network AI, perhaps a combination of the two would be better still.