Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lazybot]

Elon is not digging his own grave, he's building his future, same as always.

He can see the political winds are shifting away from D's and towards R's in the next two elections so he's establishing that you do not cross a man as influential as Elon Musk. Dems will lose influence in coming elections and this will cause both parties to suck up to him and catapult him and his companies to the next level of the stratosphere.

Elon does not plan ahead one or two days, he plans for the next 2-5 years. It's difficult for me to watch just how short- sighted so many TMC people have become!

Democrats have been going hard at Elon personally (SEC harassment, wealth and taxes) and against Tesla (NHTSA investigations, racism lawsuits). Elon probably sees Dems stepping this up big time as we get closer to elections. With this republican shift he is probably hoping to gain some republican support to counter the democrats war on him and Tesla. Staying politically neutral does not do him any good as democrats won't stop and republicans won't care. He is a centrist at heart and will remain so even if he may be leaning oneside or the other from time to time

 

[Singuy]

honestly embarrassed to take delivery next month. sure I’m not the only one. what a clown.

You must be embarrassed a lot as most CEOs/founders of most public or private companies vote republican due to taxes. Anything you buy from big box stores comes from a country governed by communists that sometimes make journalist disappear.

Purchasing goods based on the leaderships' political stance is a fools errand.

 

[CorneliusXX]

This thread must be brought to its knees.

Elon Musk is Hitler.

How does this news affect the forward P/E?

 

[advocate8]

You must be embarrassed a lot as most CEOs/founders of most public or private companies vote republican due to taxes. Anything you buy from big box stores comes from a country governed by communists that sometimes make journalist disappear.

Purchasing goods based on the leaderships' political stance is a fools errand.

None of them have the same megaphone. And because they know they have a fiduciary duty to shareholders that is much more important than something like feeding an addiction to tweeting, traditionally they don’t shout it.

 

[Nocturnal]

None of them have the same megaphone. And because they know they have a fiduciary duty to shareholders that is much more important that something like an addiction to tweeting, traditionally they don’t shout it.

They do, they just don't use it and hide their own BS. Ignorance is bliss, which is confusing because people in general seem very unhappy.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Doom and gloom again today. Here again is some perspective to counter those who believe this to be Tesla/Elon specific drop.

S&P500 top 5 as of 4pm close today
#1 AAPL shaved $136.2B off their market cap.
#2 MSFT shaved $90.6B
#3 GOOG shaved $56.8B
#4 AMZN shaved $84.1B
#5 TSLA shaved $51.7B
So taking today's action alone, Tesla has drawn $84.5B closer to the #1 spot, $38.9B closer to the #2 spot, $5.1B closer to the #3 spot and $32.4B closer to the #4 spot.

We were all cheering when Tesla was added to the S&P500. Well, look at the figures above. It works both ways. Traders are indescriminantly selling the Indexes, and with Tesla in #4 weighted spot, Tesla selling has been exaggerated.

The Market is only short term thinking. It is looking at GF Shanghai to ramp up to full production (pre-covid lockdown numbers) and until such time TSLA will stagnate. All eyes and ears should be on GF Shanghai as the catalyst for upward breakout momentum away from mediocrity. Plain and simple.

 

[advocate8]

They do, they just don't use it and hide their own BS. Ignorance is bliss, which is confusing because people in general seem very unhappy.

Not sure they do, actually. The richest man in the world thing, and the genius cult, has given Elon’s pronouncements a lot more public impact than anything coming, from say, Tim at Apple. Otherwise, your points are well taken.

 

[Todd Burch]

Good post @Words of HABIT.

I know I just talked about people trying to explain a drop and never knowing why, but IMO the weakness in TSLA lately has purely been driven by macros and the Shanghai closure. Investors now know Q2's production/deliveries won't be as good as Q1 (through no fault of Tesla), and are just front-running that. I think they'll jump back in once that rumor becomes news.

On the macroeconomic front, there's been discussion of shipping costs coming down. I think that, coupled with the Shanghai reopening, put us very close to a bottom now. I expect (hope) that the next numbers on inflation start looking positive. The minute they do, I think people may start flooding back into the market in droves.

And you don't want to be the guy that missed out on that because of a silly Tweet.

PS: I'm not sure if anything above is correct. But it makes me feel better. And frankly, this decade's been not-so-great so far, so I could use the pick-me-up!

 

[SO16]

Not sure they do, actually. The richest man in the world thing, and the genius cult, has given Elon’s pronouncements a lot more public impact than anything coming, from say, Tim at Apple. Otherwise, your points are well taken.

People have short/selective memories.

Why Tim Cook made friends with Donald Trump

Apple has a lot to gain — and a lot more to lose.

www.theverge.com

 

[JRP3]

They do, they just don't use it and hide their own BS.

That's the point, they are smart enough not to engage vocally in politics. Elon isn't being smart.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Heard through the grapevine $TSLA is splitting soon.....any substance to that rumor?

 

[Paul_SF]

Did the ones embarrassed and canceling their orders actually ordered the Teslas because they liked what Elon was talking about before or because the Teslas are the best product?

You peeps are ridiculous!

Doing my part for Q3:

 

[traxila]

Doom and gloom again today. Here again is some perspective to counter those who believe this to be Tesla/Elon specific drop.

S&P500 top 5 as of 4pm close today
#1 AAPL shaved $136.2B off their market cap.
#2 MSFT shaved $90.6B
#3 GOOG shaved $56.8B
#4 AMZN shaved $84.1B
#5 TSLA shaved $51.7B
So taking todays action alone, Tesla has drawn $84.5B closer to the #1 spot, $38.9B closer to the #2 spot, $5.1B closer to the #3 spot and $32.4B closer to the #4 spot.

We were all cheering when Tesla was added to the S&P500. Well, look at the figures above. It works both ways. Traders are indescriminantly selling the Indexes, and with Tesla in #4 weighted spot, Tesla selling has been exaggerated.

The Market is only short term thinking. It is looking at GF Shanghai to ramp up to full production (pre-covid lockdown numbers) and until such time TSLA will stagnate. All eyes and ears should be on GF Shanghai as the catalyst for upward breakout momentum away from mediocrity. Plain and simple.

Yes this 100%.

SP movement has NOT been about Elon.

Can we move on from this political stuff? If you are terminally bothered by it sell and move on. There is nothing wrong with that. There are a lot of good buys out there you can invest in now.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Am I doing this right

 

[ZachF]

You must be embarrassed a lot as most CEOs/founders of most public or private companies vote republican due to taxes. Anything you buy from big box stores comes from a country governed by communists that sometimes make journalist disappear.

Purchasing goods based on the leaderships' political stance is a fools errand.

Diess (VW) wants to roll over and show his belly to Putin.

 

[JustMe]

Perspective:

Just about everything tanked today. I'm not enjoying 2022 like many of the rest of you. Neither are the Ukranians. Nor the residents of Shanghai. I imagine a lot of Russians aren't enjoying 2022 either.

Many of us, and others (Gary Black is a great example), always look for a "reason" why a particular stock went down. We speak as if we know. We don't. Today was just a very red day. For just about everyone.

Thank God I have Rob Maurer to listen to at the end of a day like today. His level-headed rationality ALWAYS makes me feel better when I see TSLA pooping a Wall Street-sized brick of irrationality.

I'm not a fan of ANY politicization of Elon or Tesla. I'd rather he keep all that stuff to himself and take the high road. But I also understand where he's coming from, because I am a lifelong Dem who has been significantly turned off by the attacks from that side of the aisle lately. It got better once I realized that ALL politics is messed up, not just one side of the aisle .

But I hardly think TSLA's drop has much of anything to do with a couple of Tweets from today. I don't think TSLA's been dropping significantly because of the Twitter stuff, either.

I think basically the market is bonkers crappy right now, and people are looking for a reason to explain Wall Street's stupidity and the vast disconnect between Tesla's financial performance and their stock performance in 2022.

You might think you know why a stock dropped, but you're probably wrong, and you'll never be able to prove it anyway. Remember Alex Potter's drop in the TSLA price target, misguided as it was? Nobody's pinning the blame on that...

Most stocks are down more than TSLA this year. Is the current stock price totally disconnected from the fundamentals of Tesla? Absolutely. Is the stock market irrational, fickle, and oversold right now?

Absolutely.

Does it put me in a depressed mood? Absolutely. On paper, I've lost half my life savings in the last 6 months.

But I still haven't forgotten Rob and Dave Lee's spreadsheets. That's what I stay focused on. Everything else is just high school drama.

You’re smarter than you look, TB

 

[ZeApelido]

How does this news affect the forward P/E?

Elon uses SpaceX rockets to create orbital warhead fleet. Under threat, Elon takes over Bolivia, Chile, Australia, Indonesia, Canada etc... for mineral reserves. Elon walks into Russia without any backup since Russian military is in shambles. Elon ends up controlling entire minerals market outside of China.

Tesla becomes only non-chinese auto and energy company, able to produce 80 million cars per year by 2030. Forward P/E is ~ 2.

 

[ZachF]

Yes this 100%.

SP movement has NOT been about Elon.

Can we move on from this political stuff? If you are terminally bothered by it sell and move on. There is nothing wrong with that. There are a lot of good buys out there you can invest in now.

Time for a zoom-out today:

 

[vikings123]

Oh boy, seeing a lot of posters vehemently objecting to Elon's twitter posts sure has the feel of a bottom in TSLA stock. I firmly believe retail capitulation has not happened yet and the big boys are going to use media, forums and general market sentiment to steal your shares. Elon is not your typical WallStreet CEO so if that's a big deal for your investment thesis I don't think anybody on this forum can help you.

I'm sure many of the same people would have applauded his 4D chess moves if the stock was up 7% instead of being down 7%. Whatever you guys do don't take any decisions emotionally that you might regret in 3 months or 6 months or 5 years. Tesla the company continues to be in a great position. Until something changes on that front I'm HODLing.

"Invest in the business, not in the stock"

 

[Singuy]

Tsla had a bounce at 700 when QQQ was tanking which kept us from hitting beta of 2. They still haven't taken out this support. Lets see what tomorrow brings. Maybe 4th time the charm.