Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[henchman24]

I think its a fundamental difference between the 2 business models: ICE makes the majority of its profits on the back end at the dealership - repair/replace parts which are engineered to fail.

Then Tesla comes in with its products that AREN'T designed to fail, and last maybe 4x? longer in service than the ICE equivalent. And sidesteps the Dealership entirely? Blasphamy!

That's what TSLEAKs don't get: they are swimming up stream, while simultaneously sucking slough water. Vectors cancel out; zero net force.

Cheers to the longs!

There is certainly a difference in business models, but the dealership side doesn't really help Ford as a company, it helps dealerships and their ownership groups. Today, I even think these automakers are seeing that dealerships are a significant drag on the companies... which is why Ford and VW are trying to get rid of them. I also believe that dealerships knew this imbalance and knew the Tesla exemption would, over the long run, lead to their extinction... and I think that is clearly happening.

 

[StealthP3D]

Slow n steady progress of worse and worse performance against its beta. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a 5X down day today

Well, that didn't age well!

 

[SOULPEDL]

If we band together and sell enough CCs it will....

Did someone say band? Excellent, let's call it 10xCC.

 

[Knightshade]

I wonder if the MM's will allow the stock to go over $700 today? Gettin' close now!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Last day ever in the 600's? Not ready to say that, but I'll say last month to ever touch the 600's.

 

[insaneoctane]

I think its a fundamental difference between the 2 business models: ICE makes the majority of its profits on the back end at the dealership - repair/replace parts which are engineered to fail.

Then Tesla comes in with its products that AREN'T designed to fail, and last maybe 4x? longer in service than the ICE equivalent. And sidesteps the Dealership entirely? Blasphamy!

That's what TSLEAKs don't get: they are swimming up stream, while simultaneously sucking slough water. Vectors cancel out; zero net force.

Cheers to the longs!

This often overlooked difference in business models (among others) is a key first principles win for Tesla. Not relying on low quality components that are designed with limited life expectancy to maximize dealer and OEM profitability. The ability for Tesla to say that the best service / maintenance is NO service / maintenance and honestly mean it. It promotes brand reliability. This is the right side to be on.

 

[nativewolf]

Now, sometimes even Wikipedia can provide a 'warning on the wall'

Reuters - Source: Wikipedia

"Climate change reporting[edit]
In July 2013, David Fogarty, former Reuters climate change correspondent in Asia, resigned after a career of almost 20 years with the company and wrote that "progressively, getting any climate change-themed story published got harder"... "

"Partnership with TASS[edit]
On 1 June 2020, Reuters announced that Russian news agency TASS had joined its "Reuters Connect" program, comprising a then-total of 18 partner agencies. Reuters president Michael Friedenberg said he was "delighted that TASS and Reuters are building upon our valued partnership".[59] Two years later, TASS's membership in Reuters Connect came under scrutiny in the wake of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine; Politico reported that Reuters staff members were "frustrated and embarrassed" that their agency had not suspended its partnership with TASS.[
"

More @ the source.

This pretty much guarantees that whatever they publish TSLA is a sham.

That's actually a really good bit of info. Thanks for sharing.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Great interview with Toddington Warwick Harper by Fully Charged's Bobby Llewellyn (Red Dwarf's Kryten, Scrapyard Challenge & first person to use a public charger in UK - allegedly)

I think it touches on a number of aspects relating to the Tesla Supercharger network including profitability, issues, grid-scale solar including "GWh per MW peak & every MW peak in every 4 acres" and that solar power (input) curve matches charging usage (output) really well.

Gridserve co-locate Tesla chargers & must work closely together on sites, power, possibly batteries & solar. What car is he sitting in?

Spoiler: Details-timings

Rough times

12:00 charging
18:20 grid constraints/battery buffer - 5MW + batteries - GWh
22:30 Norwich compact Electric Forecourt - 22 * 350 kw + 8 * Tesla 250kw + 6 * 100kw Chademo + 6 * 22kw AC chargers - older Zoe, Kangoo etc
23:12 Will add 6 MWh battery when they can (supply chain issues)
24:00 Iterating building/charger designs - fast & high scale - climate change urgency (900 days)
26:32 Timescales, responsibilties, generation that turned it around, possible, fossil fuel FUD fight, sustain life on Earth, unsustainable bubble, oil companies might be part of solutions (big, size)
31:30 Electric cars great (sitting in one for interview - Tesla?). Oil transition, offshore skills esp for wind & geothermal drilling. can deploy first.
37:00 Economics of charging network, business case, loss leader? Profitable if making energy (GWh), harvesting, selling to grid/cars + other services - EV leasing, shops
41:00 Solar etc on their houses (big array with batteries, heat pumps, heat recovery systems, lots of tech) - "Check Out My Solar Crib" - possible future episode
43:35 Charging pattern VERY similar to solar pattern in UK - curves very similar - 1 million EV miles / acre - 34.5 MW solar (140 million miles of EV charging) - effects on food (criticism), but positive on bio-diversity/pollinators/vertical farming - "GWh per MW peak & every MW peak in every 4 acres"
47:00 Luddite arguments/twitter spats (Bobby)/sending money abroad to dodgy regimes when could keep at home.
48:00 Hundreds of employees. Plenty of solar, conversations with UK government - wind/nuclear (timeframes)/offshore wind but UK gov doesn't like to talk about solar at all
50:30 Bobby Llewellyn wrap up, another 80 big sites planned (20-40 chargers)

+ general stuff
- really positive person
- component supplies mentioned many times
- put in / modernised a UK-wide network in less than a year
- early EV user

Spoiler: Toddington-Warwick-tidbit

Toddington Warwick Harper runs Gridserve and he and his brother were named after UK Services (Rest Stops). Gridserve have put in & upgraded chargers at these locations and many others

 

[ZeApelido]

I, for one, welcome @DarkandStormy to post every day if it's going to turn out like this.

@DarkandStormy got 69'd by TSLA.

 

[jhm]

Let's ride the Tesla Cyber Horse all the way up to $1700.


Image credit, Craiyon.com "running Tesla cyber horse"

 

[ZachF]

Last day ever in the 600's? Not ready to say that, but I'll say last month to ever touch the 600's.

I’m sure they’ll be more splits in the future…

 

[dhanson865]

Energy output is over 100 times the input needed to manufacture solar panels

According to a third-party study, the projected output over the 40-year warranty period of Maxeon solar panels exceeds the energy demand of manufacturing them by over 100-fold. Plus, more details from the Maxeon 2021 sustainability report.

pv-magazine-usa.com

The test found that Maxeon 3 solar panels had an energy payback period ranging from 0.13 to 0.45 years for ground mounted module, and 0.27 to 0.92 years for a residential rooftop system. For ground mounted panels, the energy payback period can be as little as 47.5 days.

I still have high hopes for TSLA to install panels in my state one day. Maybe after I get my Texas made Tesla I can eventually get some Tesla Solar on my roof.

 

[Ogre]

Last year about this time SP was bouncing around in the high 600s. This year it's bouncing around in the high 600.

How about we shoot for 3 years in a row and do the same in 2023?

Spoiler: PS

Post Split

 

[ToTheStars]

Never mind, looks like TSLA’s going for a underperformance of 10x the macros today. Bravo

You jinxed it!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

You jinxed it!

I do what I can..........I'm only one man.

Perhaps others should join the grumpy cat movement if they're actually really wanting them gains

 

[WADan]

In my opinion that was a poor rebuttal by Gene. He really should have brought up June being Tesla's strongest production month ever, that alone counters everything GLJ said.

Instead of pointing out how misleading GJ’s cherry picking directly (not pointing out Shanghai shutdown, and one of only two car companies with YoY increase etc…), he danced around with the macro and the ”more than a car company” stuff. Disappointing rebuttal from Gene!

 

[BornToFly]

TN Mtn Man trying for the record for fastest time to post deletion...?

 

[StealthP3D]

Overall for the next 10-15 years, 50% is probably a good conservative estimate for vehicle production growth.

However, for the next 3 years or so, 70-100% is more likely and that’s what Elon said to the crowd in October in Brandenburg:

That was basically my point. That the minimum 50% growth was a long-term rate, not necessarily applicable to shorter periods like the one we are in. In other words, it's not a matter of not believing Tesla management, it's a matter of taking their quotes in the proper context.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Terrific perspective, @Singuy . And on that note, an update on how close we are to Amazon's market cap (and how quickly TSLA got here):

• TSLA worth 33% less than AMZN
  • 2 years ago, TSLA was worth 92% less than AMZN
• AAPL worth 159% more than TSLA
• TSLA worth 2 ½ the combined EU auto market (excl. Stellantis → in "US market")
• TSLA worth 3 ½ the combined legacy US auto market
• TSLA compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over last 5 ½ years: 582%
• Net worth's down from ATHs:
  • NIO (-48%)
  • Rivian (-22%)
  • BYD (-16%)
  • Meta [Facebook] (-13%)
  • Saudi Aramco (-12%)
  • Amazon (-10%)
  • Tesla (-6%)

What will this chart look like a year from now??

View attachment 751920

I know all us HODLers are pretty bummed out about the ~50% drop in SP. But all things considered, we're not in a very different situation from the last time I ran the market cap numbers:

Things that haven't changed much:

• TSLA is still the 6th most valuable company in the world (please spare telling me if / how Saudi Aramco is artificially high - it is what it is)
• TSLA is still worth about 1/3 of Apple
• TSLA is still worth about 2/3 of Amazon
• TSLA's growth continues more or less on schedule. Others (@The Accountant , @Gigapress, etc.) have capably shown us how the TSLA spring just keeps coiling tighter and tighter. I doubt any of us wonder if TSLA will rise over it's ATH, it's just a question of when we pass $1,200 again.

What's changed:

• TSLA's CapEx CAGR since 2016 is down from 581% / year to 323% / year.
• TSLA is now worth about 4 1/2 times the legacy US automakers (vs. 3 1/2 times 6 months ago)
• Japan's CapEx CAGR over the last 5 1/2 years is down to 1.4% / year
• EU manufacturer's CapEx CAGR over the last 5 1/2 years is down to -1.1% / year
• 18 months ago, Facebook was worth more than TSLA. Now, TSLA is worth 58% more than Meta
• Saudi Aramco has gained $355 B (18.5%)
• Apple has lost $774 B (-25.5%)

 

[TN Mtn Man]

I find it funny that financial "news" services attack Tesla over their "slow" production ramp at Berlin and Austin (at least by inference)-and yet that ignore that GM, with a century of production experience, hasn't managed to make 400 EV Hummers in the entire first half of the year. Financial "news" channels/programs are little different than other "news" programs. Facts don't matter, an agenda and viewers/clicks do. More about entertainment than news.