Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
0.6M vehicles sold from Texas and Germany each in ‘24 is much too low. That basically implies disaster happened and they were a step backwards from Shanghai.
Back in October ‘21 Elon said Berlin would hopefully be at a 0.5M annualized run rate by the end of ‘22, and should at least be at half that rate.
For comparison, Giga Shanghai started on Nov ‘19 and within less than two years reached a 0.6M annualized production rate in Sep ‘21. If Berlin and Austin just match that ramp rate they’ll be at 0.6M rate by around winter ‘23. Thus far they’ve ramped more slowly than Shanghai did but everything is still limited by chips and other supply shortages.
If Berlin and Austin produce 1M each in ‘24 which would be in line with Shanghai ramp rate, then the total projection becomes 4M, which is more than 60% annual growth between ‘21 and ‘24. I think that’s still relatively conservative because Berlin and Austin are newer, bigger factories with better designs than ‘19-‘21 era Shanghai and have all the manufacturing advantages of 4680s and the structural battery pack. Berlin and Austin are also making Ys which are easier to manufacture than 3s that Shanghai initially built.
1.375M for Shanghai in ‘24 is pretty low too. That’s only 60% more than they were at in June when they made 71k cars (0.85M annualized). Given two more years to optimize and expand, Shanghai will probably double production at least.
