Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Discoducky]

Lots to be happy about (solar is back!) and 2.27 beat my expectations.

Q3 should be amazing and factories continue relentlessly ramping.

4680 ramp unlocks so much fun stuff! CT, Semi and more batteries for storage!

Future could not be brighter!

 

[Thekiwi]

No modules shown. They just took the lid off. LOL.

Me thinks Tesla (Elon?) asked them not to show and cut the actual batteries. So far, they have been milking it showing the pink goo only

Why - because it is going to be very, very big surprise to see what is this made of and how it performs.

I dont think there is any conspiracy here - what likely happened is Sandy insisted on being there when they opened up the battery pack and revealed the cells, which means they had to wait until he got back from his 2 week Italy holiday.

 

[BornToFly]

So Netflix looses a million subscribers and takes off AH. TSLA posts a good quarter with amazing Q3/4 incoming and we are flat (and probably going red soon).... Awesome.

 

[Ogre]

I can't believe the relative neutrality of the SP at the moment. One of the most boring AH sessions so far. This ER was incredible for those in the know. As soon as I saw the EPS, I immediately was trying to think of who was the closest within the community and it was close.

Once again, this site feels like the cheat sheet to life. Just sit here, read and parse and you'll be ahead of game, every time.

Agreed.

Though I do think this earnings report without the conference call is a bit of a confusing one. Lots of outside factors and one time events affecting the numbers which make it hard to digest and predict.

* Shanghai Shutdown
* Bitcoin sale/ impairment
* Berlin/ Austin start up
* Inflation
* ASP increases

Looking at the estimates people posted, lots of people got close to the numbers, but were wildly off on the specific details so it’s hard to come to a simple conclusion.

Certainly feels like a significant win from here though.

 

[vikings123]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1549856625321807873

 

[ammulder]

Here is the update with Auto GM excluding Regulatory Credits.
For Matt Smith's GM, I also excluded his one time gain of Deferred FSD recognition.

Troy has the highest GM at 31.1%. I am next with 29.4% followed by Rob Maurer at 29.1%.
I will be happy to get the consolation prize and see a 31% margin print.

View attachment 830458

Automotive Gross Profit Ex Credits was... 26.2%. Who'd have thought? Wall Street was by far the most accurate.

(While getting the EPS completely wrong, of course.)

It will take a bit to digest but it seems like everybody got *something* wrong in the forecasts.

 

[Big Time]

Mattel inks deal with Elon Musk's SpaceX to produce line of toys

Mattel inked a multiyear deal with Elon Musk's SpaceX, the companies announced on Wednesday, to create a line of space-inspired toys.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Ogre]

So Netflix looses a million subscribers and takes off AH. TSLA posts a good quarter with amazing Q3/4 incoming and we are flat (and probably going red soon).... Awesome.

Tesla needs simpler metrics which are easier for the clowns to comprehend.

Maybe a nice chart with vehicles manufactured per week would highlight exactly how crazy the 3rd quarter is going to be.

Analysts like management to do their jobs for them. /s (mostly)

 

[ZachF]

You love to see it:

 

[jkirkwood001]

Notable positive take-aways IMHO:

• Model S / Model X current production capacity: 100,000 - I would love to see them build and sell 100,000 S and X. Their current run rate is only 64% of that (16,411 vs. 25,000 max.).
• "Robotaxi & others: In development" FSD-specific vehicles are now on the roadmap
• "... the robot count in our body shops in new factories dropped by over 70% per unit of capacity compared to our first iteration of Model 3 Body Shop..." = incredible operational cost improvements over my humble 2018 M3 AWD.
• Auto production up 'only' 25% YoY, but revenues up 43% YoY. Wow, that's efficient.
• "Solar deployments increased by 25% YoY in Q2 to 106 MW, the strongest quarterly result in over four years." - This and Megapack factory bode well for the future of Tesla Energy
• "Over a multi-year horizon, we expect to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries." - confirming incredible growth guidance
• Q2-2023 YoY numbers will be crazy, given this was a 'down' quarter. By next year at this time, production should be approaching 750,000 per quarter, vs. 259,000 this quarter - that's 275% of the current quarter (+175% compared YoY).
• Obvs to all, reduction in exposure to high-risk Bitcoin

HODL.

Well, actually, BUY. (not advice: my partner is getting proceeds from selling her half of a family cottage Aug. 1 = TSLA opportunity)

 

[StealthP3D]

Instant torque on the stock price, just need to keep producing across all Gigas.

Edit: Of course when they do operate fully without any negative events what will the shorts, the bears and the media shills have to gripe about?

They will claim Tesla is an out-of-control monopoly and that only the government can stop them from continuing to abuse consumers.
They will claim Ford and GM don't have a chance because Tesla is sucking up all available batteries.
They will claim no company should be allowed to become so profitable.
They will claim Tesla cheated by bringing a knife to a fist fight.

But what they will actually be thinking:
Why didn't I buy a metric crap-ton of TSLA shares when it was trading at 1/100th the price? Stupid, stupid, stupid me!

 

[BigDawgz]

Lots of folk trying to make seem like it would be perfectly in line with consensus without the Bitcoin selling, but Energy and Services and Other made significant beats which is big, and hopeful sustainable, and potentially even the start of some serious growth there.

 

[Max Plaid]

Imagine the earnings report if Tesla sold Bitcoin off before the drop, avoiding or lessening a $450M impairment

It may be unlikely but it sure would be nifty and I imagine tomorrow would be off the charts.

There’s usually a surprise of some kind in the ER. This is the one I’m rooting for.

Close, but no cigar...

In fact I'm quite puzzled as to why Tesla would sell their BitCoin basically at the bottom when the impairment has already been made and they don't exactly need the cash. Either they should have offloaded it at ATH, on a stop-loss at a higher price than they paid (this is maybe a possibility), or held for a recovery

I guess we need to hear the specifics, but seems poorly managed

Glad they're (mostly) out of it though, was always bear-food

 

[Artful Dodger]

By my calculations, Tesla sold Bitcoin (BTC) during Q2 at an average price of $29,700 USD.

Based on:

• $936B cash received for sale of 75% of BTC holdings
• est'd 42.0K BTC held at beginning of Q2
• approx. 31.5K BTC sold

Good work, Zach.

Cheers to the longs!

 

[The Accountant]

was Troy spot on with EPS of $2.18/sh or am i reading it wrong? ... wow

The non-GAAP eps came in at $2.27. Troy was the closest.
However, all of the forecasters missed over and under on multiple line items (which is not unusual).
Many had Bitcoin impairment between $450m to $500m but the actual charge only came in at $142m I believe.

 

[lascavarian]

Shamelessly bumping my own post from May because I'm usually wrong

Very pleased to see Btc reduction. This shows rational management learning and adjusting to data IMO.

 

[thesmokingman]

Lmao, CNBC brought on every douche talking head they have to down TSLA in the last hour.

 

[traxila]

Very pleased to see Btc reduction. This shows rational management learning and adjusting to data IMO.

I will take it either way, but an actual loss on the trade cannot be spun in a positive manner. I am hoping they eked out a small profit, due to stop loss provisions as per BORNTOFLY!

Honestly, I would be OK with them holding the BTC right now as it has been trashed and will probably rebound as it always has. Cue everyone who hates BTC and claims that it will / wants it to go to ZERO.

Either way, I prefer my TSLA and BTC go their own ways, never to mingle again.

Of course, there is a small matter of a few thousand BTCs still on the balance sheet. Did they ditch those in July at a loss? I hope not.

Better question: Is it possible they have been buying at the lows?

Geez, don't want to become a crypto trading house. Let's move on.

 

[StealthP3D]

As of the end of Q2, we have converted approximately 75% of our Bitcoin purchases into fiat currency. Conversions in Q2 added $936M of cash to our balance sheet

Hopefully, they will replace all their Bitcoin at a much lower price and with "green" crypto. I like the idea of the master of coin having one more tool in his toolbelt.

OK, just kidding! I said that just to poke fun of the people who take this so seriously.
I actually don't give a FF as long as they keep it to a relatively small portion of their cash on hand and they think it's useful to the overall mission.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Lmao, CNBC brought on every douche talking head they have to down TSLA in the last hour.

I have def learned not to tune in to CNBC during TSLA earnings...nothing but FUD and negativity...they could deliver 1M vehicles in a qtr and the narrative would be "But..they have capacity for 2M....so there is def a problem"