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From 2014:
Battery plants might be different. Encourage raw materials & refining that Tesla are best placed to use, especially if GM joint ventures fail.
 
It's pretty silly to mention demand falloff when Tesla isn't even delivering the S/X anywhere else in the world besides the US. Yes there will eventually be a balance as S/X ramp back up to full production, but that has really nothing to do with a demand falloff but instead just organic demand levels in the US/Canada for S/X. When Tesla starts delivering outside of North Amercia, then we know that production has finally out up with JUST the organic demand for the US/Canada.

Which, btw, I would expect to be relatively soon since it seems like they'll be at 20k/quarter rate for Q3. I mean S/X are very high priced vehicles, you'd think they'd hit that demand balance in the US pretty soon (1-2 quarters)
Don’t discourage him! I was so close to getting richer. 😡
 
Bingo. The gov is picking winners and losers, instead of the companies competing in a normal market situation and competition being encouraged.

Tesla is eating everyone's lunch by out-competing them . . . so Uncle Sam has to step in and help their union-buddy GM. Unfreaking real corruption.
The article says the DoE loan is from the exact same lending program Tesla used. The program has been in place since 2008 after Congress passed the law appropriating funds. I don’t see evidence of corruption here.

The conditional commitment for the loan…comes from the government's Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing (ATVM) loan program, which has not funded a new loan since 2010….The program previously provided low-cost government loans to Tesla, Ford and Nissan.
It’s just a conditional loan for low interest rates that match what US treasury bonds are paying out. It’s not free money unless you want to count the interest savings.

The Ultium factory pretty clearly meets the eligibility criteria (link to DoE page) except maybe the last one since GM is probably headed for bankruptcy.
  • Manufacture eligible vehicles or components that are used in eligible vehicles. Advanced technology vehicles are defined as light-duty vehicles that meet or exceed a 25% improvement in fuel efficiency beyond a 2005 model year base-line of comparable vehicles; and/or ultra-efficient vehicles which achieve a fuel efficiency of 75 miles per gallon or equivalent using alternative fuels.
  • Build new facilities; reequip, modernize, or expand existing facilities; and/or for engineering integration performed in the United States related to the manufacturing of eligible vehicles or components.
  • Be located in the United States.
  • Provide a reasonable prospect of repayment.
 
If they are spending so much effort on cases like this, I wonder if this is an indication of how deep they are down the rabbit hole.

They've moved on from general cases to chasing more specific issues. Seems like that is an indication of significant progress.

Or perhaps this is just window dressing to shut up some critics.
 
If they are spending so much effort on cases like this, I wonder if this is an indication of how deep they are down the rabbit hole.

They've moved on from general cases to chasing more specific issues. Seems like that is an indication of significant progress.

Or perhaps this is just window dressing to shut up some critics.
Whew.....sure glad it was not Karpathy that was the only one writing code for FSD :)
 
If they are spending so much effort on cases like this, I wonder if this is an indication of how deep they are down the rabbit hole.

They've moved on from general cases to chasing more specific issues. Seems like that is an indication of significant progress.

Or perhaps this is just window dressing to shut up some critics.
If you can make it here, you can make it anywhere.
-Frank Sinatra Ditty
 
Might be worth looking at this chart, for the now, on the economy and peering back all the way to the 1950's

 
The first 6 bullets of the leaked FSD Beta 10.13 Release Notes all seem to address Chuck Cook's unprotected left turn situation. This is such a troublesome turn that Tesla sent their team of ADAS drivers to strictly work on collecting data/test 10.13 at this particular location. Latest videos of Tesla's tests Chuck posted show great improvement, but we are unsure which of the turns were made by 10.13 and which by the test driver.

FSD Beta 10.13 Release Notes​

  • Improved decision-making for unprotected left turns using better estimation of ego’s interaction with other objects through the maneuver.
  • Improved stopping pose while yielding for crossing objects at “Chuck Cook style” unprotected left turns by utilizing the median safety regions.
  • Made speed profile more comfortable when creeping for visibility, to allow for smoother stops when protecting for potentially occluded objects.
  • Enabled creeping for visibility at any intersection where objects might cross ego’s path, regardless of the presence of traffic controls.
  • Improved lane position error by 5% and lane recall by 12% with a [obscured]
  • Improved lane position error of crossing and merging lanes by 22% by adding long-range skip connections and a more powerful trunk to the network architecture.

What does this mean.

  • Improved lane position error by 5% and lane recall by 12% with a [obscured]
We have three intersections in town where it get in the wrong lane 100 percent of the time.
 
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The first 6 bullets of the leaked FSD Beta 10.13 Release Notes all seem to address Chuck Cook's unprotected left turn situation. This is such a troublesome turn that Tesla sent their team of ADAS drivers to strictly work on collecting data/test 10.13 at this particular location. Latest videos of Tesla's tests Chuck posted show great improvement, but we are unsure which of the turns were made by 10.13 and which by the test driver.

FSD Beta 10.13 Release Notes​

  • Improved decision-making for unprotected left turns using better estimation of ego’s interaction with other objects through the maneuver.
  • Improved stopping pose while yielding for crossing objects at “Chuck Cook style” unprotected left turns by utilizing the median safety regions.
  • Made speed profile more comfortable when creeping for visibility, to allow for smoother stops when protecting for potentially occluded objects.
  • Enabled creeping for visibility at any intersection where objects might cross ego’s path, regardless of the presence of traffic controls.
  • Improved lane position error by 5% and lane recall by 12% with a [obscured]
  • Improved lane position error of crossing and merging lanes by 22% by adding long-range skip connections and a more powerful trunk to the network architecture.

This highly difficult unprotected left turn is not needed for robotaxi at all. Waymo manage just fine making a bunch of right turns and taking alternative routes. It's much easier for a Tesla to make a right here and then a protected U turn than to play this deathtrap dancing game with 60mph cars across 6 lanes.

Going above and beyond to shave off 3 mins worth of travel time when the back seat occupant that's sleeping doesn't even care.
 
This highly difficult unprotected left turn is not needed for robotaxi at all. Waymo manage just fine making a bunch of right turns and taking alternative routes. It's much easier for a Tesla to make a right here and then a protected U turn than to play this deathtrap dancing game with 60mph cars across 6 lanes.

Going above and beyond to shave off 3 mins worth of travel time when the back seat occupant that's sleeping doesn't even care.
It shows the level to which they are trying to solve "full self driving" though. They aren't doing "mostly acts like a human self driving". Its really encouraging to see they are working on the corner cases now. The question is - how many of those are left?

There are lots and lots of other YTers like Chuck Cook that have seemingly straightforward situations where FSD gives up. I can't wait for FSD beta 13 to come out and watch to see how many of them retry their situations to see if they work.
 

Here's an insightful interview with Cory from Munro. Timestamped for when Cory talks about the sheer forces needed to open the structural pack and how impressed they were calling concrete and the cells are rebar as an analogy. Insane and funny, Tesla making benchers life difficult by intelligent design.

To look at it as concrete, with the cells as rebar, is really too much simplification from Munro.
I do not blame them however, the resemblance is too nice to resist.

A short technical consideration.
As concrete is very good at resisting compressive forces, but pretty bad at resisting tensile forces, rebar is placed in areas where tensile forces will occur.
Without any complex calculations, my estimate is that the main mechanical function of batteries in the battery pack is not that of rebar, but of something that is able to take both tensile ànd compressive forces.
The bending and torsional strength and rigidity of the pack will for a great part be derived from the outer layer, so the metal top and bottom.
For the optimal working of this the cells must be glued with great strength to the outer metal layers, so the fact that these layers are difficult to remove is logical.

It shows that the engineers at Tesla not only understand their concepts of how cells are working electrically, but also have good knowledge how to apply mechanical engineering to them.
And most importantly: proof that the electrical and mechanical engineers are working together.
Now, why am I not surprised by all of this?
 
The 2 quarters being a recession has always been short hand, it has never been the cut and dry rule. I don't recall the time off hand, but at least for a few decades the NBER has been responsible to call a recession. GDP contraction is a part of it, but not the full picture. Sometimes you don't even need a full quarter to call a recession (Feb-April 2020 was a recession). It seems this gets picked up as a political point from whatever party is not in power, but it has been this way for a very long time. Don't listen to the hive mind of Twitter thinking this is a new thing, it isn't.

As for my thoughts on recession, we aren't there yet... but signs are getting worrisome. Housing showing cracks could be the catalyst that brings recession to a reality, and that is the industry that is probably the most impacted directly by the Fed's moves where the inmates are running the asylum at this point.
Yes, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)'s Business Cycle Dating Committee makes the official call.

A short and easy listening of this NPR podcast Planet Money episode Recession referees has some background info and interviews with the current president of NBER, chair of the committee, and one former committee member.
A few quotes of the episode:
  • Not making real time determination of a recession or not
  • The committee doesn't care about tomorrow, or even today, the committee only cares about the past
  • Their work is to inform academic research and therefor to inform future policy
In other words, the official determination of recession has zero bearing on the current market.
 
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It shows the level to which they are trying to solve "full self driving" though. They aren't doing "mostly acts like a human self driving". Its really encouraging to see they are working on the corner cases now. The question is - how many of those are left?

There are lots and lots of other YTers like Chuck Cook that have seemingly straightforward situations where FSD gives up. I can't wait for FSD beta 13 to come out and watch to see how many of them retry their situations to see if they work.
I think skipping certain time saving however very dangerous maneuvers should also be included in "safer than a human driver" mantra. Humans are willing to take the risk because humans are stupid. Robotaxies probably shouldn't follow in their footsteps.
 
I think skipping certain time saving however very dangerous maneuvers should also be included in "safer than a human driver" mantra. Humans are willing to take the risk because humans are stupid. Robotaxies probably shouldn't follow in their footsteps.

I don't want to wade too deep into this argument, but I think it shows that Tesla's end goal is level 5 autonomy. As other companies have shown, you can geofence your autonomous vehicles into safe situations and end up with level 4 with relatively little work. But they're giving up on attempting the most difficult situations before they've even really tried to develop a solution.

In other words: if you live on a street that can only be accessed by an unprotected left that involves pausing in the median, it doesn't matter how good Waymo is at right turns, they're not coming to your house.
 
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If I may - calling @Baumisch , @avoigt

after hours notice - I try to read news around EU/China and South America in their 'local news/press' forms online.

Today, large Polish site 'Interia.pl', which actually happens to be German/Swiss owned (Axel Springer SE and Ringier), links THIS super FUD Tesal article (do tranlate it to your native tongue). It does look like a piece I've seen before.
Per Wikipedia, Poland is a 38M+ EU country which has strongly developed in past 20-30 years after ending 50+ years of Russian occupation.

I am really curious which German (?) money pay for this kind of anti - Tesla FUD and why this gets published in Poland???

Thoughts, anyone?
 
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I don't want to wade too deep into this argument, but I think it shows that Tesla's end goal is level 5 autonomy. As other companies have shown, you can geofence your autonomous vehicles into safe situations and end up with level 4 with relatively little work. But they're giving up on attempting the most difficult situations before they've even really tried to develop a solution.

In other words: if you live on a street that can only be accessed by an unprotected left that involves pausing in the median, it doesn't matter how good Waymo is at right turns, they're not coming to your house.
My point is you can get anywhere you want without this unprotected left turn across all these lanes. You can always find a protected left eventually. Yes it will add travel time but it's also much safer because these unprotected lefts are only safe if people followed traffic laws. This particular unprotected left that is partially obscured may not be dangerous if people followed traffic laws and drove 55, however people are flying through here at 70 which increases the chance of an accident exponentially.
 
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I don't want to wade too deep into this argument, but I think it shows that Tesla's end goal is level 5 autonomy. As other companies have shown, you can geofence your autonomous vehicles into safe situations and end up with level 4 with relatively little work. But they're giving up on attempting the most difficult situations before they've even really tried to develop a solution.

In other words: if you live on a street that can only be accessed by an unprotected left that involves pausing in the median, it doesn't matter how good Waymo is at right turns, they're not coming to your house.

I don't think L5 is even possible, as it probably means solving general strong AI. Like reading arbitrary instructional street signs in any common natural language or responding to a policeman's verbal commands to do something contrary to signing. It means driving wherever humans can drive. Driving when there are cattle and sheep crossing the road. I don't think humans are L5. I wouldn't drive in certain parts of small mountain roads in Italy like Amalfi coast.