Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[thx1139]

Rob Maurer with an excellent breakdown of the new Clean Car Rebates (notice I didn't say EV):

EDIT - basically PHEVs with battery packs as small as 7kWh can qualify for the full credit, as long as they are assembled in North America, and sufficient source the battery minerals from the USA or a "free trade" partner (scales up over time).

Yeah, Toyota is going to LOVE this bill.

Has everyone contacted Senators and Representatives to say this is a terrible flaw in the legislation? As well as Sedan limit $25K lower than SUV.

 

[damonbrodie]

Oh gee . . . look at that MMD.

MM's defending 850 hard. Would love to see them steamrolled.

(goes to shake cushions in sofa)

How much was in that cushion!!!!!!

Edit: $856 - keep shaking! Look under the couch too!

 

[Prunesquallor]

Completely agree. This bill is nothing but greenwash, except for the solar/battery incentives.

All this does is incentivize traditional auto to sell a bunch of hybrids. What a bunch of

Hey, at least there’s no union incentives.

 

[henchman24]

Nasdaq going to 12,300... should be heavy resistance, but if it breaks... there is a lot of runway almost up to 13k. The market is having a pretty extreme bullish tilt, even in the face of some bad numbers.

 

[bkp_duke]

Hey, at least there’s no union incentives.

Not directly. But with this targeting US/NA production only and giving hybrids a big carve-out, it is an indirect incentive to unionized labor.

I guess on this subject I'll just be like @StarFoxisDown! and be perpetually cranky. Not how I envision my tax dollars being spent, and it looks like the Dems are desperate to pass anything they can claim as a win, so they gave Manchin nearly everything he wanted, it appeared.

The ability for "dirty" hydrogen (i.e. hydrogen produced from fossil fuels) to be claimed as "green" and available for subsidies really ticks me off as well.

The only silver lining to this is that Tesla is not excluded / directly targeted in this bill. So they will probably continue to expand their margins from this legislation.

 

[Zero CO2]

It sucks. When my dad passed away I didn't want to be responsible for investing my mom's money in individual stocks. So I bought into all the different ARK funds thinking I was doing her a favor. I got out of a couple at break even, but the three remaining are down 60-68%.

similar situation my dad passed start of COVID ... sitting *sugar* ton of cash and value trap stocks ...my mom said will you invest it for me ... thought about AARK .. decided on 3 stocks she could understand... AAPL, GOOGL , TSLA ... 10 % in AAPL, 20% in GOOGL, 70% in TSLA
right now AAPL and TSLA are both up about 25% and GOOGl is about 10% ... really glad i stayed away from AARK

she did not understand robots, crypto, and the other "disruptive" names in AARK ... thank god for that

As far as my son was concerned i told him to invest with AARK ... i thin he bought in around $60/sh and again at $40/sh as he has long horizon ... still a mistake should have bought TSLA ... although he will inherit plenty of TSLA so there's that

 

[ThisStockGood]

I’m worried about them MM. Somebody check up on them?

 

[CHGolferJim]

Full credit for 7kWh hybrids is simply ridiculous. I think they missed a decimal point.

It should be 70kWh or more for full credit.

If 7kWh stays the threshold it will be essentially giving money to legacy ICE to stay in business.

The first EV incentive was prorated depending on battery size, wasn’t it? Seems to be simple political reality that USGov will shift money to legacy auto to keep them alive, so it might as well be in a way that has some stimulative effect in the EV transition. While a shift to hybrids is not what we pro-EV folks want, it could have a meaningful effect on gasoline consumption (and emissions?).

 

[thx1139]

I mean the anything is better than nothing for the Dems... they can show they passed something and label it a win. Not that the bill is better than nothing (I'm personally not a fan of these EV credits in general as the abuse and carve outs just don't make sense). And not that this does anything for the proliferation of EVs or fighting in inflation as it is hilariously labeled.

Combatting Climate Change combats inflation. Climate Change is increasing all kinds of expenses. For instance in Germany right now because of the heat the Rhine river is really low. So now shipments on the Rhine in smaller boats with lower volumes of cargo so the boats sit higher in the water. So now more shipments and more work to get the same amount of product around. So shipping costs rise which boosts product costs. Ding ding ding we have inflation.

Same can be said with prescription drug costs and health insurance (aka Tax) costs.

 

[Mengy]

The market's in a weird place this morning. Some are slightly green, some are a bit red, it just feels very tenuous...

 

[M|S|M MYP]

The market's in a weird place this morning. Some are slightly green, some are a bit red, it just feels very tenuous...

This is the only RED i care about...well...not really

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Not directly. But with this targeting US/NA production only and giving hybrids a big carve-out, it is an indirect incentive to unionized labor.

I guess on this subject I'll just be like @StarFoxisDown! and be perpetually cranky. Not how I envision my tax dollars being spent, and it looks like the Dems are desperate to pass anything they can claim as a win, so they gave Manchin nearly everything he wanted, it appeared.

The ability for "dirty" hydrogen (i.e. hydrogen produced from fossil fuels) to be claimed as "green" and available for subsidies really ticks me off as well.

The only silver lining to this is that Tesla is not excluded / directly targeted in this bill. So they will probably continue to expand their margins from this legislation.

At this point, I’m fine with the bill. There’s no union clauses and Tesla isn’t excluded for the most part. Yes the Model 3 LR and P are, but I have a feeling Tesla will work around that. Tesla also wins big on energy and solar as well as getting credits for the Semi.

And the biggest reason I’m ok with the bill is no cap and it last for 10 years. There’s a lot of ways Tesla could have been screwed over with caps and limits so good to see they aren’t there.

Yes this bill extends the viability of hybrids…..but in reality it’s fools gold. Because the ban of the ICE vehicle is coming, and sooner in places like Europe and China. And anyone trying to extend their relevance through hybrids (cough Toyota) will pay the price.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Scooped up 10 shares early in the premarket @ $855. Then got a little whipsaw action, but feeling pretty good now.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I’m worried about them MM. Somebody check up on them?

View attachment 834173

They’re there…..stepped in at 865 and TSLA’s been capped since and now underperforming it’s beta. It’s always easy to see where MM’s step in.

Having said that, at least the macro green wave all week has forced them to pay out a lot more than they were wanting to pay out back on Tuesday

 

[UncaNed]

Has everyone contacted Senators and Representatives to say this is a terrible flaw in the legislation? As well as Sedan limit $25K lower than SUV.

I'd LOVE it if someone more knowledgeable than myself posted a sample letter so mine will be more effective.

 

[StealthP3D]

Covers Tesla’s early decision to create in-house ERP from scratch, ditching SAP, and willingness to identify & develop needed competencies that legacy OEM’s outsource.

Maybe you didn't get the memo:

UAANA.

 

[MadScientist23]

Nah. Optimus isn't about sports and physical agility. It's about repetitive boring labor.

Have it pass out swag bags to all attendees when they arrive.

The intent of the ball is some activity that can't be predetermined. A person throwing something shows that it's got to "think on it's feet" so to speak and adjust accordingly. The video that was posted was cool and I wasn't aware so thank you for that.

ummm….Tesla doesn’t have a good record when it comes to throwing balls at its new products during live events

This genuinely made me laugh out loud. The interesting thing would be having the bot catch a ball bearing and then throw it at the CT (knowing the throwing power to be limited by software) thus spoofing out the previous jokes about the glass.

 

[lafrisbee]

Have it say "Would you like some swag?" and if they say Yes it grabs a bag and hands it to them. If they say No it says "It's good stuff, are you sure?" and at that point it grabs a bag but doesn't hand it to them unless they reach for it.

Simple decision tree and only needs to know how to say two things and do two general motions + the grab and release concepts.

If you want to polish the routine you can add a "Have a nice day" or "Enjoy the presentation" after the bag release on the handoff. But even if it was a wordless handoff and it got the first statement(s) right I'd call it a win.

edit: Oh and to really show this off, have several of them standing behind a table, all the swag on another table behind them. A ballet of Optimus SubPrimes going back and forth to grab a bag for people going by.

And when I say ballet, it's totally boring normal movement you'd expect from a bored teenager, just quietly efficiently doing the job. The only thing that makes it remotely ballet like is the line of them doing the same motions.

My "wow" skill for Optimus Prime would be for them to have it sit a couple of feet behind the sign-in table. As attendees come in and check in, or whatever, Optimus would be listening and watching. Once the first Speaker starts and everyone is seated in the main hall, Optimus would get up and walk into the hall, walking up and down the aisles looking for a seat. The Speaker would pretend to see it, and ask Optimus what it was doing. When Optimus answered it was trying to find an empty seat the Speaker on the stage would ask Optimus who was sitting near where it was standing, and maybe one of them wouldn't mind coming down and standing at the back of the stage. So the Speaker asks for the names of those people.
Because the Robot had been behind the check in table it had matched everyone's name to their face so it would start pointing to people and saying their correct name. The seats would need cleaning.

 

[henchman24]

They’re there…..stepped in at 865 and TSLA’s been capped since and now underperforming it’s beta. It’s always easy to see where MM’s step in.

Having said that, at least the macro green wave all week has forced them to pay out a lot more than they were wanting to pay out back on Tuesday

Forever grumpy.

 

[Usain]

The first EV incentive was prorated depending on battery size, wasn’t it? Seems to be simple political reality that USGov will shift money to legacy auto to keep them alive, so it might as well be in a way that has some stimulative effect in the EV transition. While a shift to hybrids is not what we pro-EV folks want, it could have a meaningful effect on gasoline consumption (and emissions?).

Also, a plug-in hybrid might serve as training wheels for those who are afraid to go fully electric.

So like you, I think it could do some good even if the spending is wasteful.