Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[strago13]

Impressive amount of Tesla vehicles at Shanghai port. Wu Wa video here: Wu Wa Video


View attachment 834203

Rough math is about 4k cars

 

[unk45]

And that's how the sauce is made.

The 7kWh provision appears to be pandering direct to Manchin. I wonder how much Toyota contributes to his campaign . . .

oe Manchin (D-WVa)

$8,000

Toyota Motor North America PAC Contributions to Federal Candidates

Toyota Motor North America gave $874,999 to federal candidates in the 2017-2018 election cycle. See the details.

www.opensecrets.org

Remember this is for a single campaign from a single Toyota entity and excludes all those WV Toyota US citizen voters. It also excludes Toyota suppliers etc. Further it excludes all the other PAC and other ways to ensure Mr. Manchin will not suffer from negative cash flow. Given all that only a very, very, very naive person would imagine that the complete number is much less than three more digits added to this one.

The history of gob in WV shows just how Senator Manchin operates. His houseboat and Maserati do suggest he has continuing positive cash flow. He is very, very experienced.

Tesla only has benefits from this bill by accident. However, combining the Truck and utility-level benefits Tesla will do very well. As for cars, it really does not matter, but I still expect a (some) Canada-style compliance car(s) to be offered in due time. As for gob-generated hydrogen, that would be astounding, since that plant is very expensive to operate; still, never count against greed!

 

[LYTRIDR]

Problem is manufacturers spend an extra $1000 to make a plug in hybrid with minimum battery requirement. Now car eligible for $7500 tax credit. Offer the car for say $5000 above ICE version and advertise after tax credit you get the car for $2500 cheaper. Big extra profit, little Climate Change benefit.

I think the systems will be a bit more than $1k to add in, but overall I think you are spot on, that significant profit will come from these and that hybrids will be the most valuable use for the limited cell quantities that will be available for legacy OEMs.

Taking the long view, the profits could be rolled into electrification. This will give the OEMs the runway needed to become competitive vs Tesla over a 10 year time horizon. However, as we've noted before in this thread, there is at least a $5,000 deficit per vehicle that OEMs are operating at vs Tesla due to advertising and pension obligations alone. Add in debt service, dividend expectations, manufacturing inefficiency (vs Tesla anyway), and other items that Tesla benefits from due to vertical integration, and this does a lot to close the gap, but it likely won't be enough.

 

[insaneoctane]

Full credit for 7kWh hybrids is simply ridiculous. I think they missed a decimal point.

It should be 70kWh or more for full credit.

If 7kWh stays the threshold it will be essentially giving money to legacy ICE to stay in business.

What a waste (subsidized misallocation) of precious batteries when they are forecast to remain in short supply for years! I hate to see my tax dollars spent to actually slow the mission.

 

[capster]

…
If 7kWh stays the threshold it will be essentially giving money to legacy ICE to stay in business.

Pretty sure that’s the point…

…and I suspect that it may turn out to have been mostly pointless for the legacy automakers.

 

[generalenthu]

loos like the Q3 earnings l is bang in the middle of TWTR trial. Should make for a volatile week.

 

[scaesare]

In the case of Tesla they already know what the foam is made of, and can test a sample in a test tube in a lab.

Others can break off a piece and, run tests on it.

My doubt is whether a 3rd party could refurbish the pack to the standard that it could get a warranty as a structural pack.

Removing the cells, testing them individually then selling them for use in other applications seems possible,

Yeah... was just speaking to the issue of foam removal discussed... I would imagine much more involved with cells in a structural pack, including potential cell-to cell or cell-to-honeycomb bonding...

 

[Mengy]

I think the stock is stuck right now, someone go bump it to break it loose!

 

[Ogre]

It is to their advantage. It subsidizes the sale of vehicles with gasoline engines for the next ten years, enabling OEM's to get more benefit from their large capital investments in ICE manufacturing and slowing the transition to BEV's. Tesla will keep improving the cost effectiveness of BEV's, but it will be some time before their manufacturing capacity is a threat to Toyota, and in the meantime the fossil industry can lobby for more subsidies which their friends might provide while braying about helping people with lower gas prices.

ICE car sales have pretty clearly peaked. Toyota can at best tread water here while Tesla gobbles up share of the mid-high end of the market and slowly moves downstream.

Toyota’s vehicle sales peaked in 2018 and the decline seems to be increasing. Tesla has already displaced the RAV4 and the Corolla as the best selling vehicle in California. A lot of their sales are spot in the middle of the markets the Model 3 and Model Y occupy and their sales numbers reflect that.

The PHEV credit will help them maximize profits in the near term, but it won’t help them grow share. So sucking up incentive cash for PHEV sales is a great short term strategy but longer term is potentially devastating. They need a good EV to return to growth. If they let these subsidies be a crutch they are screwed.

 

[Nocturnal]

I have to admit that I love seeing the bears on Twitter b%tch and moan about how they are so sure the economy is going to crash and it's just not fair that the market is acting like things are ok.

 

[bkp_duke]

I think the stock is stuck right now, someone go bump it to break it loose!

Already shook my sofa cushions. Someone else is up this time.

 

[insaneoctane]

I'd say the odds are higher that @StarFoxisDown! is unhappy at $1200 because the beta is still lagging and the call wall at $1205 is being protected. Rinse and repeat every $50 until the stock is at $8500. At that point, it will just be mildly content of:

Is that after the split??

 

[CHGolferJim]

Also, a plug-in hybrid might serve as training wheels for those who are afraid to go fully electric.

So like you, I think it could do some good even if the spending is wasteful.

I know that buying my daughter a Prius in 2013 is what first got me thinking about BEV.

 

[2daMoon]

Already shook my sofa cushions. Someone else is up this time.

I think I'll buy a lottery ticket.

If I win I can then buy a couch or two and shake them to my heart's content.

 

[ZachF]

ICE car sales have pretty clearly peaked. Toyota can at best tread water here while Tesla gobbles up share of the mid-high end of the market and slowly moves downstream.

I’m pretty sure they peaked in 2016 in USA/Europe/China and I don’t think those peaks will ever be surpassed.

 

[Pezpunk]

I know that buying my daughter a Prius in 2013 is what first got me thinking about BEV.

this isn't 2013.

we shouldn't be encouraging ANYONE to buy a hybrid. It's the worst of both worlds, adding massive, totally unnecessary amounts of weight and complexity and maintenance to a vehicle.

In 2022, it's a terrible decision. When I talk to people about EVs, I beg them to buy one, but I also tell them, "I know they are a luxury right now. If you can't swing a fully electric vehicle, please just find a nice, efficient gas car. Hybrids have all the disadvantages of gas, plus all the expense and disadvantages of lugging around a battery, but with more maintenance and complexity than either system on its own."

Hybrids need to die, and should not be thought of as a middle ground or stepping stone between gas and EV.

 

[insaneoctane]

I'm happy with this headline!

Tesla Makes More Money Than GM and Ford - TheStreet

The maker of premium electric vehicles confirms that it has become the most profitable American automotive group.

www.thestreet.com

I know we said it here days ago, it's just nice to see the headline.

For the second consecutive quarter, Tesla has just announced a net profit higher than that of its Michigan rivals, according to their respective earnings reports.

 

[CHGolferJim]

this isn't 2013.

we shouldn't be encouraging ANYONE to buy a hybrid. It's the worst of both worlds, adding massive, totally unnecessary amounts of weight and complexity and maintenance to a vehicle.

In 2022, it's a terrible decision. When I talk to people about EVs, I beg them to buy one, but I also tell them, "I know they are a luxury right now. If you can't swing one, please just find a nice, efficient gas car. Hybrids have all the disadvantages of gas, plus all the disadvantages of lugging around a battery, but with more maintenance and complexity than either system on it's own."

But non-BEV people won’t only buy efficient gas cars, they’ll buy a mix of vehicles including SUVs, etc., and the current availability of hybrids for a broad range of vehicles reduces total gasoline consumption. People will shift to BEV as they learn more about them, including TCO.

 

[CaliBear1]

At this point, I’m fine with the bill. There’s no union clauses and Tesla isn’t excluded for the most part. Yes the Model 3 LR and P are, but I have a feeling Tesla will work around that. Tesla also wins big on energy and solar as well as getting credits for the Semi.

And the biggest reason I’m ok with the bill is no cap and it last for 10 years. There’s a lot of ways Tesla could have been screwed over with caps and limits so good to see they aren’t there.

Yes this bill extends the viability of hybrids…..but in reality it’s fools gold. Because the ban of the ICE vehicle is coming, and sooner in places like Europe and China. And anyone trying to extend their relevance through hybrids (cough Toyota) will pay the price.

Now I’m nervous. StarFoxisDown! just went green.

 

[lafrisbee]

very low volume and the stock rises healthily?