dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Energy capacity of a single Megapack is now increased by 50% (3.9 MWh) (presumably LFP now)
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
I want to highlight the fine print that this comparison from the 2017 Semi unveiling was based on $2.50/gallon diesel prices. Current diesel price in the US is now $5 and $4 is more of the long term average.
The economics of Tesla Semi were compelling in 2017 with the stated specs, but now the value proposition is overwhelming.
As Elon made clear in the presentation, this comparison is also for continuous 60 mph highway operation with a full load which is the most generous case for comparing with diesel trucks. Just as with a passenger EV like a Model Y, the energy efficiency advantage over an ICEV is greater in city driving than highway because that’s where regenerative braking shines. 40-ton tractor-trailers have a pretty decent ratio of air drag per ton because of their long, skinny (albeit boxy) form, which diminishes the relative efficiency advantage of a Tesla motor vs a Cummins engine. In driving with more stops and starts, the advantage of using the kinetic energy of that 40 tons of mass to recharge the battery instead of burning the (expensive) brakes is huge. The Tesla Semi does take advantage of eliminating the engine block to make the drag coefficient better, but the point remains that the Semi’s competitive advantage is stronger in city driving. I will do the math from scratch soon to try to estimate energy consumption for the semi in various use cases.
Thus, the short-haul Semi with the 300-mile range is going to be devastating for the diesel competition because it will tend to serve routes within greater metro areas with more traffic, turns, stoplights, loading stops, etc and with less highway cruising. Likewise for any derivative short-range trucks Tesla eventually makes for smaller truck classes.
Last edited:
Not very fun fact -
….No, I’ll place it as a quiz. Ten TeslaPoints for the closest correct answer.
My friend who hauls all winter up and down the Dalton Hwy (Fairbanks<—->Prudhoe Bay) gets what mpg?
I find the pushback by some utilities around net metering confusing for this exact reason. When they buy power from you at 1/3 or 1/4th of what they sell it for that's a huge benefit. Granted peak solar generation doesn't line up exactly with peak grid demand but they could just incentivize using batteries to shift that.
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Not sure how to read this post, but for the benefit of doubt, Hungary is in Nato (since 1999). Member states of NATO - Wikipedia
SmartElectric
Active Member
Cummins knows electrification (even hybrid) is the way.
News from this week :Cummins finalizes Meritor acquisition
Tesla Semi and other EV only trucks will be competing with hybrids on total cost of ownership over the next decade, beyond that, EV only will surely dominate. But clearly, Cummins is working on the problem of optimizing for "traffic, turns, stoplights, loading stops," as you noted.
As TFL posted this week, 200 kWh gets you limited range, at a much higher entry point, but the proof of EV only drivetrain for large trucks will be evident as these hit the road :
(Video) Diesel Cummins vs Electric Truck – Are Electric Trucks REALLY the Future OR Just a Flash In The Pan? International eMV Gives you Options!
Andre is comparing an International eMV with an International Cummins which are in the same class. Can both trucks exist simultaneously? The International tr
tfltruck.com
thesmokingman
Active Member
Ich heisse nicht Audi - das ist ein Automobil - sondern Audie.
Mein name ist nicht Autobahn - das ist eine Strasse - sondern Audubon.
But vielen dank, anyway
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
out of warranty service isn't providing transportation now
I hate this from the fact that i was limited on my generation size due to the Power company. I didn't expect anything at 1x for above what i used, just the wholesale rate like what i get now, but to limit me is frustrating. I'm oversized on my array and limit my inverters to 15KW simply because that's all i'm allowed to output to them and they put a meter between my inverters and anything else to monitor my generation alone. I wish i could turn my system loose and generate more because my consumption is higher due to large house, now a Tesla and a PHEV, and pool equipment. It's complete waste to have the system held back in the summer when i need the higher amount for the winter anyways.
Puffin dinner! (and ten points)
in fairness (???), that includes the ten hours mandatory rest, during which time the trucks need to run at idle, and that’s not just so the ICE doesn’t ice up, but ditto its driver.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
It's just bad rhetoric when you can't even add: Elon said 1.5M production in 2022 is possible at the AGM a week ago. That's still only 927K production in H2, not 1M.
And that's the stretch goal. The Official Goal of +50% is more important, and requires just 838K production in H2. It will be clear by end of August that Tesla is already past that run rate.
But you keep practicing your
*BTW, > 1M cars produced in H2 would be a > +68% YoY increase.
I'm going to guess 3. Winter fuel, plus cold air density penalty, plus all the idle time to keep the fuel and cab warm, plus the huge elevation changes.
That reminds me of a conversation I had a couple of years with a neighbour, who is a professional trucker and owns his own truck. The Tesla Semi was just announced and I wanted to hear his opinion of what price/mile means for a trucker. He told me that he took an eco-driving course organised by the manufacturer of his truck. The course consisted of 2 parts: the teacher let him drive a route using his usual driving habits. The second part was driving the same route, this time with directions of the teacher of when to accelerate and brake. Basically just the simple hypermiling techniques known by everybody who tried to hypermile a Prius. It turned out the second ride took slightly less time, but more importantly, consumed a meaningful amount less diesel. My neighbour, with several decades of trucking experience, could barely believe the teacher could teach him something, but there he was, less time and less diesel. Less diesel is more money for my neighbour, so he now drives eco-friendly because it’s pocket friendly for him.
My neighbour wasn’t aware of this, but I was listening very careful to his story. His story means every diesel loving trucker will switch in a heartbeat to an EV-truck because it saves them money. They like that more than the vroom-vroom sounds of a diesel engine. His story validated my assumption that Tesla would sell every Semi they can make for many years to come.
Fun fact: last week I had another chat with a couple of neighbours, including the trucker. One of the other neighbours suggested to buy a hybrid as his next car. My trucker-neighbour immediately responded that that was a bad idea, that it was best to go full-EV. No need for me to convince my neighbours anymore.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
A 40-ton truck moving through a city at 30 mph that has to brake to a complete stop and the accelerate back up to 30 mph burns through a theoretical minimum of 1 kWh of energy every time, because that’s the kinetic energy of 40 tons at 30 mph. In reality, the powertrain could not accelerate the truck with 100% efficiency. An efficient battery truck like the Tesla Semi could accelerate with 90% efficiency and regen brake with maybe 85% recovery efficiency. The diesel truck accelerates with 40% efficiency and brakes with 0% recovery.
Tesla: 0.9 * 0.85 = ~76% efficiency
Diesel: 1 kWh / 0.4 = 2.5 kWh of energy used per cycle
Order of magnitude efficiency difference!
A US gallon of diesel has 40.7 kWh of chemical energy and costs $5, which is $0.12/kWh, about the same as typical retail electricity prices.
In a day, a short-haul regional delivery truck might do on the order of 100 such stop-start cycles. The diesel truck would burn $0.12/kWh * 2.5 kWh * 100 = $30/day on energy costs for stopping and starting whereas the Tesla would burn just $3. That’s $10k saved per year just on fuel just for starting and stopping 100 times per day!!!
For a truck with a more extreme urban route with 1000 stops per day (roughly one every minute with about 16 hours of driving), the benefit of a good electric powertrain is $100k per year.
This isn’t even accounting for brake wear and tear expenses either, nor for the externalized environmental and health costs of the brake dust, noise, and toxic smoke being emitted in populated areas.
This is the primary reason why battery-electric passenger busses are currently much more popular than electric trucks.
Tesla: 0.9 * 0.85 = ~76% efficiency
—> 1 kWh * 24% loss = 0.24 kWh of energy used per cycle
Diesel: 1 kWh / 0.4 = 2.5 kWh of energy used per cycle
Order of magnitude efficiency difference!
A US gallon of diesel has 40.7 kWh of chemical energy and costs $5, which is $0.12/kWh, about the same as typical retail electricity prices.
In a day, a short-haul regional delivery truck might do on the order of 100 such stop-start cycles. The diesel truck would burn $0.12/kWh * 2.5 kWh * 100 = $30/day on energy costs for stopping and starting whereas the Tesla would burn just $3. That’s $10k saved per year just on fuel just for starting and stopping 100 times per day!!!
For a truck with a more extreme urban route with 1000 stops per day (roughly one every minute with about 16 hours of driving), the benefit of a good electric powertrain is $100k per year.
This isn’t even accounting for brake wear and tear expenses either, nor for the externalized environmental and health costs of the brake dust, noise, and toxic smoke being emitted in populated areas.
This is the primary reason why battery-electric passenger busses are currently much more popular than electric trucks.
Last edited:
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
This is something I've been thinking about too. At least in the flatter mid-western states, 1 lead Semi w. 500 mile range could work as the 'lead dog' for 2 more Semi's with 300 miles range. But they'd go more like 400 with the aero/drafting.
The boost in range (33%) could be that good. And you save $60K on the capital cost of the 3 truck team. NASCAR will want these.transporters...
Lots of detail here, but it appears that 4mpg is fairly standard *summer* MPG and you lose 1 MPG due to somewhat normal cold weather stuff, but extreme cold weather could take away yet another 1 MPG with ice micro-slipping, tread freezing, increases in air density, decreases in steering/shifting efficiencies as well as increased idling needs.
So, I'll say around 2 MPG. And demand for the Tesla Semi in those conditions should be better if the battery could have proper insulation.
Cautionary tale: A year ago, similar situation with EV credit to go into effect 1/1/‘22, I waited to order LR Y until the order page showed January’22 delivery. So I ordered it on 8/9/21. A year on, I’m still waiting, estimated delivery now Sep/early Oct. Not saying this will be your experience, but it is mine, although with a Y instead of a 3.
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
