Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mike Smith]

FSD Beta wide release will mean a massive profit boost from higher take rate, fleet add ons, and revenue recognition. I'm so bullish right now a cowboy just tried to ride me.

 

[Surfer of Life]

If you had a car that was Level 4+ and only
operated autonomously, maybe lacking steering wheel and pedals, I don’t think you would even need road-use insurance. For that level of autonomy and to attribute saved lives to the system, the manufacturer needs to own the driving task and what happens while it’s in use. But of course you’d be able to get metrics out of the manufacturer.

I’m not even sure how you go about insuring something that can be driven manually but also flipped into a Level 4+ mode where you don’t own the driving task

Autonomous or not, you could still get sued, so you still need insurance.

 

[MC3OZ]

as guess what happens when (25% / 40% / 75% etc) of all cars are EVs?

You never know, perhaps some smart guy will invent underground 3-D tunnels

 

[Baumisch]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1561607860101996544

https://twitter.com/x/status/1561608534629965826

definition of "wide" is NorthAmerican-wide correct?

Are we past the point where NA has the majority fleet already?
I'm waiting for world"wide" release or more selfishly EU/german-wide

Also, do we have confirmation if europe-style trafficlights (above the car not opposite) are a problem with current camera angles?

 

[Baumisch]

The most important tweet in the series:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1561151575753494528

To be honest - there are some moments in IT history I will never forget, of course the IPhone was one,
but Google Earth and Streatview are another as well, first time zooming in from space to your street, and then later on walk through the street online ... booom - wanna know what blows my mind about Ashoks presentation?

Around 20:20 in the Video Ashok shows a 3D reconstruction out of car data and mentions this get's better over time as more cars scan the same scene - this BLOWS my mind - Google spends quite some money on mapping street view and does (imho) a crappy job of removing people's faces.

Tesla can provide realtime 3d object data and remove all humans and AND and ... (sorry mind blown) could add all those new things that Google and apple are trying to battle on right now with manual labor - things like disability features, is this crosswalk safe for wheelchairs etc. and google just days ago added route suggestions based on most econimc route, tesla got more data on this as well .. this is all manual effort at the 2 big players, and tesla gets it all for free - sure, they don't talk about it, but hell i hope they are thinking about licencing this data out for quite some bucks.

Also I hope the fineprint allows them to use this data commercially when customer signs-up for Autopilot, EAP, FSD etc .... in "Blurrmany" where private homes are still blurred in Streatview this might be tuff - but good work for the Elon Musk Lawyers army


Just think about what might happen if they tell us on AI day #2 a licence deal with Google or Apple


Edit: after letting it sink in - there won't be any deal as Tesla is notorious for doing stuff on their own - but I fear they don't have a platform to monetize this as google or apple has with their maps products - so probably not happening as both google and apple are competing with Tesla more or less in the car already (carplay stuff but also google full OS for polestar i.e.)

 

[WarpedOne]

>> Also, do we have confirmation if europe-style trafficlights (above the car not opposite) are a problem with current camera angles?

My car sees the lights even when I can't.

 

[MartinAustin]

FSD Beta wide release will mean a massive profit boost from higher take rate, fleet add ons, and revenue recognition. I'm so bullish right now a cowboy just tried to ride me.

The word "beta" is conspicuous by its absence in EM's tweet. He says "FSD wide release."

He also said "this year, for sure!" during the stockholders meeting.

I would imagine that removing the requirement to hold the steering wheel, removing the requirement to have someone sitting in the seat that has the driving controls, and so on, has already been written and tested. They just need to turn it on. After that, Tesla Network - where you can hail a FSD Tesla for a ride - will arrive on the Tesla phone app. (millions of new downloads and a new demand lever for Tesla to push, should they want to)

Small addendum: I saw Kolodny's "article" on the FSD price hike. Wow, what a twisted reality she weaves. Almost pure disinformation.

 

[Artful Dodger]

And if the rumor on YouTube can be believed about the 2 motor version of the Cyber(nota)truck being the first ones delivered because there won't be enough of the carbon fiber-wrapped motors for a long time

Don't assume that the quad-motor Cybertruck will require carbon-wrapped rotors. The main purpose of that tech is to allow high speed motor operation (in excess of 20,000 rpm), which is required for Plaid S / Roadster to attain it's high top speed AND quick acceleration while using a single-speed final drive gear.

Cybertruck, due to it's size, weight, and aerodynamics, is NOT going to target a high top speed. In fact, it'll likely have a lower top speed than the std range Model 3. So CT can be geared for moderate top speed, but still with outstanding torque and acceleration.

None of those goals require carbon wrap (btw, the winding machine is in Fremont). What quad-motor CT does require is a new retail price, and a *sugar*load of high-NI 4680 cells. I heard Tesla is working on that...

Watch the Cathode Plant construction progress at Giga Texas for clues. It's all coming together for next Summer's CT debut.

Cheers!

 

[mongo]

Many TSLA investors are watching the situation in Shanghai unfold as the government restricts some companies from production, due to dwindling electric supply. The Shanghai area gets most of its electricity from hydro, so water (and therefore rain) is the needed ingredient to fix the situation. How soon can we expect enough rain to restore sufficient electrical output to some of Tesla's suppliers in the area?

It's important to know that Shanghai gets the majority of its rain during the monsoon/typhoon season of June through September. Clearly the rains have been late this year, which explains the low reservoirs. Here's an image of the Shanghai weather report for the next two weeks. I suggest that rain is on its way and if sufficient we'll see the crisis measured in weeks rather than months.

Since TSLA likely keeps a few weeks of inventory for each part, the electricity issue could well be resolved before production at Shanghai's factory is affected.

View attachment 843664

Isn't Sichuan the region with power issues, and Tesla is only impacted due to supply chain?
I just searched again and didn't see Shanghai power restrictions, only the request to limit impact to Tesla and other EV manufacturers.

 

[Thekiwi]

The last couple of months have been crazy - rivers and lakes literally drying up in various locations all over the globe with abnormal heatwaves and droughts - causing power & water shortages. (Here in New Zealand we are having the opposite problem - an abnormal amount of torrential rainfall).

This is the part of the disaster movie where all the scientists worst scenarios start happening and everyone starts freaking out.

However here we are in real life and there is barely a whimper in mainstream news broadcasts.

Surreal.

 

[WarpedOne]

This is the part of the disaster movie where all the scientists worst scenarios start happening and everyone starts freaking out.

Disaster movie you say... this would be one heck of a such: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012825219302521
And don't even start researching younger drias... where do you think the stories about noah's ark came from?

We are just very stupid and short-lived ...

 

[Papafox]

Isn't Sichuan the region with power issues, and Tesla is only impacted due to supply chain?
I just searched again and didn't see Shanghai power restrictions, only the request to limit impact to Tesla and other EV manufacturers.

Thanks for the heads up about Sichuan's location. Scratch the Shanghai weather forecast because the Sichuan region is farther east. Nonetheless, that region also gets the vast majority of its rain in the summer monsoon season. We'll either see relief within the next few weeks or they will have a much bigger problem on their hands.

 

[Maarten]

This is the part of the disaster movie where all the scientists worst scenarios start happening and everyone starts freaking out.

However here we are in real life and there is barely a whimper in mainstream news broadcasts.

Surreal.

We as TSLA investors have a two-way relation with climate.
With Tesla we try to halt the negative impact of transportation on climate.
But climate is already kicking back, resulting in (hopefully minor) logistic problems for Tesla.

We have an (albeit small, but good) exception here in The Netherlands to the rule that @Thekiwi is pointing to.
The eight o'clock evening news is broadcasted here by a company with no ties to any political party (although some people see influences now and then).
Many times every week the presentator of the weather is referring to the extreme heat and drought as being a result of climate change.
And that we can expect more of this in the future.
Happy with them often referring to this, as a lot of people here see this daily news- and weather bulletin.
And unfortunately for a lot of people putting this subject under their noses remains very necessary.

To end with the beginning: let's hope the Chinese drought will not have too much impact on Shanghai production.

 

[Max Plaid]

Thanks for the heads up about Sichuan's location. Scratch the Shanghai weather forecast because the Sichuan region is farther east. Nonetheless, that region also gets the vast majority of its rain in the summer monsoon season. We'll either see relief within the next few weeks or they will have a much bigger problem on their hands.

BBC reporting power restrictions in Shanghai - not yet for industry though: Iconic Shanghai sights go dark as drought hits power supply

 

[CHGolferJim]

POST-DICTION:

1,022,183 shares of TSLA traded in the 4:00 pm minute on Friday. That's extreme volume, with only 20.5M shares total traded on Fri, including Pre-Market and After-hrs sessions:

View attachment 843226

This notably high Closing Cross volume indicates covering of short sales made during the day, and that much of the push down early on Friday was manipulation.

Paging @Papafox

I expected a closing cross-related price spike, but none occurred. Why not?

 

[elasalle]

Markets going down Jackson Hole where Fed is supposed to meet this week… and one of them blurped high interest rates last week…. And that is enough for MM to shake and scare the whole market

 

[Buckminster]

Anything happening this week?

 

[heltok]

My guess is that Shanghai has some built up supply of batteries after the Shanghai lockdowns so this should even out a bit. What worries me is how the European energy situation will look like in the winter and if some companies that use a lot of energy will be looking at losing money and go bankrupt later this winter. Maybe some suppliers to Tesla. It must suck to be a European metal producer and compete with countries with cheaper energy this winter...

Tesla must be really frustrated. They just want to ramp in peace. But then covid lockdowns, lack of shipping containers, queues in ports, chip supply, Shanghai lockdowns, war, energy crisis, droughts etc. It's been a rough last two years. Still Tesla has kept growing, this has probably cost competition much more than Tesla and Tesla has had to adapt and are now even better prepared to scale production in-house. Can this finally be over please! Elon was right:

 

[Atomsla]

We have an (albeit small, but good) exception here in The Netherlands to the rule that @Thekiwi is pointing to.
The eight o'clock evening news is broadcasted here by a company with no ties to any political party (although some people see influences now and then).
Many times every week the presentator of the weather is referring to the extreme heat and drought as being a result of climate change.
And that we can expect more of this in the future.
Happy with them often talking about this, as a lot of people here see this daily news- and weather bulletin.
And unfortunately for a lot of people putting this subject under their noses remains very necessary.

You know, I was taught about global warming extensively in elementary school ~30 years ago, as well as how we can't keep treating the globe the way we do. It's been a topic on TV and in the news very frequently while I grew up, and it still is. Despite all this, the amount of stuff we buy, the oil we burn and the damage caused has skyrocketed since then. It's not like our little country, where the topic actually was somewhat in people's mind did things any differently than all the others. It seems that informing people that things could get really bad will not actually change behavior within a generation. The only way to do that is apparently to make appealing products for them to buy that make the situation 'hopefully less terrible', as long as its all financially beneficial. Then and only then will something change, and that makes me so damn depressed about mankind.
Its sad that the only real hope I have to mitigate the coming damage has to come from one man, but thats the way it stands right now. At least that man is more optimistic about the future than I am..

 

[jerry33]

Define “huge”, please. I have read statements like that, pertaining to a wide variety of circumstances, since I was head referee for Sodom vs Gomorrah.
But I never have seen anyone post verifiable numbers demonstrating same.

I’m not disagreeing with you - I genuinely would like to see the data.

The nine leading sports bar chains have 6514 locations in the U.S. but there are many more public places where alcohol can be consumed. If each one of those sports bars have only twenty people who could benefit that's over 130,000 people for just those nine chains.