Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wipster]

What an incredible crock of horsesugar being spun in that article. Caught off guard by demand? No. The strategy was always to blame resource scarcity to give ICE a longer life. What actually changed or was unexpected to the mental midgets that run the automakers was Tesla’s determination to secure the supply chain at the raw material level. Now they can’t drag their heels or they die quickly.

It was an intentional calculation for which we’d pay the price, and I wish for nothing more than these companies to meet their deserved demise.

How can GM be caught "off guard" when they created the first BEV of the modern age, the EV1... just ask Mary!

It was such a good vehicle they've destroyed almost all of them. Believe they were a threat to the ICE monopoly.

\s

 

[HellsKitchen]

I bet just the dividend yield on a $50k Tesla investment today will be $10k in 2035+.… and it won’t be a particularly large dividend either.

Any thoughts on the actual stock value?

 

[Artful Dodger]

I don't see any sticker inside the RF wheel well on my wife's car (Made in Texas LR Y VIN 0116xx).

Pic of the bottom from the rear and front:
View attachment 853941

View attachment 853940

Paging @mongo to make the call.

 

[betstarship]

Any thoughts on the actual stock value?

If Tesla and Elon Musk succeeds on their mission by 2035, then the stock value will be irrelevant.

As an aside, sometimes I wonder if the company might turn into a utility by that point.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Can anyone say, 'S-curve'?

WSJ: (subscription required):
Electric Vehicles Took Off. Car Makers Weren’t Ready

• Long backlogs for EVs
• "A few years ago, auto executives weren't sure there would be enough buyers for plug-in electric models. Now, they worry they can't build them fast enough, while they intensify a multibillion-dollar rush to accelerate timelines and bring factories online"
• EVs account for only about 6% of overall US vehicle sales. That percentage has tripled in the last two years, while sales of other types of vehicles has declined"
• In July, 5 of the six fastest selling vehicles in the US were electrics of PHEVs.
• Inflation reduction act has stoked consumer demand.
• Executives from GM, Ford and VH have all said that they believe they can pass Tesla.
• Auto makers have found themselves hampered by insufficient supplies of critical parts, such as computer chips.
• Batteries are another bottleneck. Locking in contracts for battery cells on short notice from among a handful of global cell manufacturers presents a big challenge.
• GM Hummer and Lyriq are being produced at rates of less than a dozen a day, despite waiting lists of tens of thousands. Output is being constrained by battery supplies.
• Some executives from traditional car companies acknowledge they were too cautious on their early plans for electrics.
• Parts shortages at Rivian
• Lucid having problems securing parts that are normally in ample supply, such as carpet and glass.
• "Battery arms race". Chasing Tesla which has spent more than a decade developing a battery supply chain.
• Ford's Farley: Only half of the battery raw materials the auto industry needs to achieve its long-range EV sales targets are available today.
• Richard Sowden, principal at Frontier Investment Management Co, which owns about 2.8 million GM shares" "We believe that the manufacturing expertise of existing large auto companies like GM gives them a huge advantage"

The comments in that article are from a different planet. I thought WSJ subscribers were supposed to be somewhat knowledgeable.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Any thoughts on the actual stock value?

There will certainly be many more stock splits between now and 2035. I'd say Tesla's market cap should 15x at least by 2035.

 

[Discoducky]

(continuing on what I consider a fascinating topic since it's the weekend)



Assuming I understand correctly what you are confirming, I had asked if you you were saying something represented on the display that is understood to be vector-space is evidence of data that was collected by previous vehicles. It seems as if you are saying "yes".

Yet you also just said:

So, I'm unsure if you mean that some of the vector space data is sourced by previous vehicles in non real-time, and some vectorspace data is collected in real time by the current car. Or if you are saying that some data, such as vector space is collected by previous cars, and other data (non vector space) is collected by the current car.

If the former then that would seem to be at odds with your assertion that vectorspace renderings (such as the creepwall and median box) are necessarily an indicator of having been ground truth sourced by previous vehicles. If the latter that that seems to be different that what was presented at AI day.

At about 16 mins in to AI day Karpathy discusses using multiple cameras to generate a vectorspace map in real time.

And at about 49 mins in to AI day it was said that vector space data collected by the fleet was used only for training labels, and then discarded.


So, it appears that the car does indeed generate real-time vectorspace data, and that data from previous cars is not used by your current car (only that it's NN was trained with that labeled data). Or at least that was the case at AI day.


So I guess I'm confused when I understand you to say that the apparent vectorspace representation of the creep wall and median box are indicators of ground truth sourced by previous cars?

To put it simply, some of the data being used by the real-time system is being augmented by previously collected non-real-time vector space sparse data. I don't believe they are doing any real-time vector data creation (it would be super cool if they were however). My best guess is that they are using the trusted (aka ground truth) vector sparse data to augment the real-time system to draw the creep line and median box.

 

[2daMoon]

6%??? Where did this come from? If it is 6%, color me happy as I thought it was 4%.

Maybe that 4% was week before last.

I suppose they must've sold a few more since then.

 

[ggr]

Mod: The discussion of manufacturing in China turned snarky and political very quickly. I thought about just deleting all the posts, but some of the replies were actually worth keeping, so I made another thread from them: China pro/con turned political

But I remind you all that political discussion is banned in this forum, as is snarky back-and-forth. I won't always put in the extra effort to make new threads, especially since I'm not really a moderator any more.

--ggr

 

[Words of HABIT]

TSLA has tracked similar to the DOW, NASDAQ and S&P 500 since the beginning of 2022 with higher highs and lower lows. Similar tracking with a beta of 2 means TSLA will go nowhere in a flat or downward trend market. I've always felt that there needs to be a disassociation from the indexes and only then can TSLA reach its potential.

I believe this disassociation from the indexes commenced the beginning of September where TSLA is outpacing the DOW, NASDAQ and S&P 500 by +11% for the last half month. I expect this breakout to continue at least until February 2023, have a brief pause for several months until the Cybertruck starts to ramp and show volume, then accellerate further North, helped by Tesla Energy.

The best time to invest in Tesla is during the most pessimistic of times (wasn't there a few posts just here on TMC about human extinction, doesn't get much worse than that) and today is the most pessimistic time for Investor Risk in the last 20 years, even greater than the Great Financial Recession of 2008. What an opportunity for those that have patience and have funds that they do not need for at least five years.

 

[Discoducky]

There will certainly be many more stock splits between now and 2035. I'd say Tesla's market cap should 15x at least by 2035.

TL;DR - Market cap of >15T and yes that even sounds crazy to me...so with the current 3.13B shares that equates to ~$4700/share

Others will be better estimators than me, but my estimation is that Tesla will continue to grow at >50% for at least 10 years due to no demand issues or competition and will control the majority of the markets they participate in like transportation, energy, labor replacement robotics and AI services. Each one of these markets will grow over that time-frame quite a bit. This assumes they will retain contracts for the critical battery resources supply chain, continue to grow profit margin, implement robotaxi a few years and launch to scale production the general labor android for industrial, commercial and residential use.

 

[Maarten]

Billionaires typically own concentrated stock positions — this investor posted a 30-fold gain over 10 years on one little-known company

The key to wealth is diversification, the adage goes. But building extreme wealth is often derived from just a few investments.

www.marketwatch.com

First lines of the article:
"True or false: To build big wealth in the stock market, it pays to be widely diversified.
If you guessed “true,” you might want to reconsider.
Successful investors from Warren Buffett to Ron Baron teach us time and again that taking concentrated positions can really pay off."

Well, this has been quite clear here, for quite some years now.

 

[Papafox]

Regarding the effect of a possible TSLA dividend someday, many investors such as me who are primarily holding deep in the money call options would switch over to straight stock in order to take advantage of the dividend. Eliminate deep in the money call options as a reasonable alternative for shares and you have the same amount of money chasing noticeably fewer shares. The share prices would have to go up noticeably in order to reach equilibrium.

 

[mongo]

I don't see any sticker inside the RF wheel well on my wife's car (Made in Texas LR Y VIN 0116xx).

Pic of the bottom from the rear and front:View attachment 853941
View attachment 853940

Paging @mongo to make the call.

I think the sticker is visible being the wheel well guard.
However, that is quite likely a 2170 pack as revealed by the additional center and side ribs.

 

[wipster]

TL;DR - Market cap of >15T and yes that even sounds crazy to me...so with the current 3.13B shares that equates to ~$4700/share

Others will be better estimators than me, but my estimation is that Tesla will continue to grow at >50% for at least 10 years due to no demand issues or competition and will control the majority of the markets they participate in like transportation, energy, labor replacement robotics and AI services. Each one of these markets will grow over that time-frame quite a bit. This assumes they will retain contracts for the critical battery resources supply chain, continue to grow profit margin, implement robotaxi a few years and launch to scale production the general labor android for industrial, commercial and residential use.

If you are anywhere near correct (and I'm reasonably certain you are), I believe there are going to be a lot more Teslanaires in the future!

 

[powertoold]

All of us will be Teslanaires in 2035 when $1,000,000 is equivalent to $100 2022 dollars.

 

[scaesare]

I don't believe they are doing any real-time vector data creation (it would be super cool if they were however).

Doesn't that first AI day link I provided say that are doing exactly that? Karpathy describes fusing multiple images and generating a vectorsapace representation by the in-car Neural Net (aka Hydranet)

My best guess is that they are using the trusted (aka ground truth) vector sparse data to augment the real-time system to draw the creep line and median box.

OK.. so supposition is based on the idea that the vectorspace objects are based on previously collected sparse data.

I think that's at odds with the AI day presentation.

 

[Discoducky]

Doesn't that first AI day link I provided say that are doing exactly that?

AK says "we'd like to" implying that they haven't yet. This is a huge task and while I think it would be cool if they were, I think this is a critical long-pole item for single stack vector space.

Also, I will continue this, if needed, in another thread come market open tomorrow...

 

[bkp_duke]

Electric Vehicles Took Off. Car Makers Weren’t Ready

More buyers are lining up for EVs, catching car companies flat-footed and triggering a race for more batteries, factories and materials. “Can I afford to keep waiting for this?”

www.wsj.com

The above link should allow those interested to access despite paywall.

The comments section is a gold-mine of information there on how people's perceptions still have a LONG LONG way to go. Say what you want, but the FUD machine has ingrained a lot of mis-information into the mindset of your typical casual auto buyer.

 

[SmokyPeat]

TL;DR - Market cap of >15T and yes that even sounds crazy to me...so with the current 3.13B shares that equates to ~$4700/share

Others will be better estimators than me, but my estimation is that Tesla will continue to grow at >50% for at least 10 years due to no demand issues or competition and will control the majority of the markets they participate in like transportation, energy, labor replacement robotics and AI services. Each one of these markets will grow over that time-frame quite a bit. This assumes they will retain contracts for the critical battery resources supply chain, continue to grow profit margin, implement robotaxi a few years and launch to scale production the general labor android for industrial, commercial and residential use.

It's not clear to me if you expect Tesla's market cap will grow at 50% for 10 years, or you mean volume of production- but assuming you mean market cap (since that's what we're discussing), that would put the stock value at $17,300 (assuming no splits) in ten years! Things compound fast at 50% CAGR! That number sounds crazy to me, so maybe you're talking production volume.