Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[henchman24]

To summarize:

The Market: Interest rates rising! Possible recession! Sell!!!

TSLA: We have record sales and profits, and no debt. None of this affects our growth or profits.

The Market: Sell!!!

Tesla has held up better than most of the market because of the relative strength of the company and growth. But to think that recession can't possibly hurt the growth is a bit blind to the reality on the ground. I think Tesla will be fine and weather this better than almost any other company out there, but they are not immune.

 

[Discoducky]

Why should AI day cause a drop if it hasn't caused a pump?

SMR and Elon summed it up pretty well

https://twitter.com/x/status/1575380409616986112

We'll have some analysis in this and the engineering/Optimus thread.

 

[brantse]

Is this finally the flush the market has been looking for? What do we need to call it? Doesn't seem to be high enough volume.

 

[scaesare]

Re

Can regenerative braking absorb as much energy as the motors produce? If so I guess that’s quite a brake savings.

Also, sham wow and there’s more… just to stay on topic.

Given folks don't stand on their brakes to come to emergency stops nearly as much as they have fun punching it off the line... having the same regenerative power as acceleration power isn't really necessary. Even with ~60KW of regen braking, you can pretty smoothly come to a stop in 95% of situations. Not to mention that applying 300KW+ of braking force is probably not the safest or "friendly" to other drivers around you.

And yes... regen is great for saving on brake pads... I'm still on my original set after 167K miles...

 

[henchman24]

So what calamity is causing the whole market to sell off today?

GDP officially negative for 2 quarters, and jobs came in strong... the latter meaning the Fed will continue to raise rates aggressively (they said they need the job market to tumble).

 

[Discoducky]

So what calamity is causing the whole market to sell off today?

Unemployment is too low and is lower than expected, which equates to a higher likelihood the Fed does yet another 0.75 instead of a 0.5 or 0.25

U.S. Economic Calendar - MarketWatch

U.S. economic calendar consensus forecasts from MarketWatch.

www.marketwatch.com

ninja'd by @henchman24

 

[Singuy]

Unemployment is too low and is lower than expected, which equates to a higher likelihood the Fed does yet another 0.75 instead of a 0.5 or 0.25

U.S. Economic Calendar - MarketWatch

U.S. economic calendar consensus forecasts from MarketWatch.

www.marketwatch.com

ninja'd by @henchman24

People being hired to increase productivity and supply due to overwhelming demand? Oh F that, we need people to lose their jobs to crush demand....said by the dumb fed.

Inflation has been in check due to increased supply for decades. The minute supply has problem, the Fed decides to crush demand at all cost...lol.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Of course TSLA trades worse than every high growth/high risk stock in my watchlist…..of course

Not like they’re about to post growth of 35-40% YoY

 

[Mengy]

People being hired to increase productivity and supply due to overwhelming demand? Oh F that, we need people to lose their jobs to crush demand....said by the dumb fed.

Inflation has been in check due to increased supply for decades. The minute supply has problem, the Fed decides to crush demand at all cost...lol.

It does seem like a terrible strategy to me as well. I would think low unemployment is a good thing, that means more people working who can afford to buy things which stimulates the economy.

 

[woodisgood]

Of course TSLA trades worse than every high growth/high risk stock in my watchlist…..of course

Not like they’re about to post growth of 35-40% YoY

I’d have to go back and double check this, but it sure feels like the market has to blow up right before and during every potentially positive TSLA catalyst.

 

[BornToFly]

Tesla has held up better than most of the market because of the relative strength of the company and growth. But to think that recession can't possibly hurt the growth is a bit blind to the reality on the ground. I think Tesla will be fine and weather this better than almost any other company out there, but they are not immune.

What decrease in Tesla growth do you foresee in the next 18 months because of a possible recession?

(Asking for a friend who sees no change - fewer 3s and Ys (unlikely) means more Semis and Cybertrucks).

 

[Artful Dodger]

To summarize:

The Market: Interest rates rising! Possible recession! Sell!!!

TSLA: We have record sales and profits, and no debt. None of this affects our growth or profits.

The Market: Sell!!!

CarMax results fall short as inflation-hit buyers rethink purchases | reuters.com

CarMax says inflation taking toll on car demand; auto stocks fall

Used-car retailer CarMax Inc said on Thursday that an uncertain economic environment was starting to take a toll on vehicle demand, sending ripples through the auto sector, which has largely dodged a significant hit from inflation this year.

www.reuters.com

#	Company	Symbol	Weight	Price	Chg	% Chg
378	CarMax Inc.	KMX	0.044648	67.51	-18.91	(-21.89%)

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Why should AI day cause a drop if it hasn't caused a pump?

Two reasons:
1. Stock price usually doesn't fair well after these events.
2. Watching Dave Lee and John Gibb yesterday, they said they were expecting "state of the art" (Optimus). Tesla is a year into the Optimus venture, if the world is expecting state of the art, they will be disappointed. Additionally, Tesla's strength in this area is AI. An amazing display of AI will get completely missed if accompanied by an ordinary display of robotics.

My opinions are not a negative on Tesla, they are a negative on the stock market.

 

[Electroman]

Inflation has been in check due to increased supply for decades. The minute supply has problem, the Fed decides to crush demand at all cost...lol.

Don't disagree with your premise that, inflation has been in check due to supply matching demand the last two decades. But the moment supply is disrupted and is less than demand, you have the following scenarios:

- solve the supply disruption problem. Not an easy proposition since world is connected. You simply cannot build Chip factories, or Lithium factories overnight. And Ukraine war literally guarantees that.

- do nothing, and hope that demand comes down by itself. But then you run the risk of a run-away inflation before the demands meets supply

- Or, artificially suppress demand through monetary policies that will trigger a loss of jobs, which in turn will cut down demand.

As painful as it is, the last option is the only prudent option for now. The other two will get us more pain

 

[Artful Dodger]

So what calamity is causing the whole market to sell off today?

Russia marching towards general war in Europe.

Publications on Russia-Ukraine war - European Central Bank | www.ecb.europa.eu

How do markets respond to war and geopolitics? | ECB blog (28 Sep 2022)

Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine marks the return of geopolitical risk to Europe. Here the ECB blog looks at how global stock markets reacted to this risk and what role time and distance have played.

 

[Nocturnal]

GDP officially negative for 2 quarters, and jobs came in strong... the latter meaning the Fed will continue to raise rates aggressively (they said they need the job market to tumble).

Not sure the FED is thinking this through.

Nearly 70% of Americans are looking for extra work to combat inflation

Americans are taking extra hours or re-thinking their jobs entirely as daily costs surge.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Knightshade]

What decrease in Tesla growth do you foresee in the next 18 months because of a possible recession?

(Asking for a friend).

FWIW I could see some of the "FINALLY ABOUT TIME" growth in the home solar/storage business folks are predicting with solid battery supply being pulled back in a recession. While solar is a financial no-brainer in SOME areas today it's still a longer-term payback in others and such folks might reconsider a big outlay in a recession.

Given how tiny a part of the business this is today it's not a big problem or anything, but it's the one thing that came to mind seeing your question.

 

[BornToFly]

Russian march towards general war in Europe.

It's just talk. They are losing to Ukraine now. Can you image if Europe/Nato joined the fight?

 

[SmokyPeat]

What a crazy market we're in right now. I wouldn't be shocked if we somehow finish the day in the green at this point.

 

[Electroman]

Two reasons:
1. Stock price usually doesn't fair well after these events.
2. Watching Dave Lee and John Gibb yesterday, they said they were expecting "state of the art" (Optimus). Tesla is a year into the Optimus venture, if the world is expecting state of the art, they will be disappointed. Additionally, Tesla's strength in this area is AI. An amazing display of AI will get completely missed if accompanied by an ordinary display of robotics.

My opinions are not a negative on Tesla, they are a negative on the stock market.

If for instance, if I tell the Robot, "go get me one sharp red pencil from the drawer", and the Robot picks the right one from a bunch of 20 pencils and brings it back to me, that would be an amazing display of plethora of abilities - visual, AI, and cognitive.

The stupid media and institutional investors will smirk and retort saying, my 3 year old can do that. The AI engineers will be giddy. Stock will fall with many 'anal'yst comments comparing Tesla Robot to a diminutive 3 year old.