Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MrMoo]

What do you guys think of bear argument by Chicken Genius that lead to his TSLA price target of $140. Apparently, he sold most of his TSLA shares and became a full on bear.
I personally think some of his arguments are wack but there's a few that is out of my knowledge. Just want hear some great opinion from TMC. I left some points out as they're just pure garbage.

Chicken Bear Argument -

1. This is one of the worst economic situations ever. Do you think people will buy a premium car? Auto sale is one the first to get hit.
   
2. Tesla Backlog shrinking, back order are being exhausted.
   
3. Market share decreasing

1. Total demand destruction, China has 1 week. Where else will they get there order from? China economy is in poo, EU is even poo poo er.

1. Nobody can explain to me high cash flow and 18B cash for a company that grows 50% yr. Management knows something we dont.
2. Giga Berlin - cost of energy will directly affects cost of manufacturing.

watch youtube here

Not a fan of the way this guy flip flops. But his entitled to his opinion.

I personally disliked how he basically pumped TSLA Stock when it was trading in the 800 and 900s and now that it benefits him his shitting on the stock. Anyone who took his advice would of had to sell at a loss

 

[Boomer19]

What do you guys think of bear argument by Chicken Genius that lead to his TSLA price target of $140. Apparently, he sold most of his TSLA shares and became a full on bear.
I personally think some of his arguments are wack but there's a few that is out of my knowledge. Just want hear some great opinion from TMC. I left some points out as they're just pure garbage.

Chicken Bear Argument -

1. This is one of the worst economic situations ever. Do you think people will buy a premium car? Auto sale is one the first to get hit.
   
2. Tesla Backlog shrinking, back order are being exhausted.
   
3. Market share decreasing

1. Total demand destruction, China has 1 week. Where else will they get there order from? China economy is in poo, EU is even poo poo er.

1. Nobody can explain to me high cash flow and 18B cash for a company that grows 50% yr. Management knows something we dont.
2. Giga Berlin - cost of energy will directly affects cost of manufacturing.

watch youtube here

oh gawd! demand issues, smh

sure some won’t buy tesla due to their own economic condition, but others will continue to fill that gap until tesla’s market saturation reaches much higher levels.

a reminder to everyone -
why do we continually put stock into what other people say, especially the ‘follow-whores’ on twitter:
(“i’ve reached 100k, you’re all so great, thank you!” #blessed #trulyblessed #irock)

-translation:
i know nothing (95% of the time this is true), but due to the cottage industry we’ve built for ourselves around tesla, i now get ad money plus some people pay to follow me because they are even more clueless…

…actually it’s a pretty good strategy for these ‘influencers’. twitter is run so piss-poorly that they’re all just following each other, and when coupled with the bots, that ad money is essentially going to a black hole, returning little to no value to the clearly clueless spenders.
great! advertising is a disease as far as i’m concerned.

you know it’s truly bizarro world when we switch placing stock in the likes of that attention douche jonas to someone named ‘chicken genius’, or any twitter goon

come on people!

 

[InDaClub]

5 October 2022 @ 8:30 AM ET

 

[mongo]

@mongo thinks that the savings is actually more like $100-150 in which case this benefit is more like $0.10/share in 2023. That's still a pretty nice savings.

mongo also calculated that the real weight of the hardware is probably 3.5-5 kg, so I was off by 2x or 3x with the 10 kg guess. 4 kg is 0.25% of a Model 3's mass so it's appreciable but not a huge weight advantage. I guess that it maybe adds a kilometer of range for city driving if that's roughly proportional to vehicle weight.

On the other hand mongo also pointed out that the cost savings will probably occur pretty much immediately, not with a lag like I was initially thinking. If so, this will impact Q4 to the extent that Tesla transitions 3Y production to this design over the course of Q4.

My costs may be low due to naivete, oversimplification of the universe, and the large number of part #s/ processing they have due to the USS being color matched.
I hope I'm within 4x of the real price, say $500 max to Tesla, $650 to consumer @ 30% GM.

Big other benefit I see is elimination of floorspace needed for fascia subassembly, along with part transport, labor, service costs...

 

[Boomer19]

hardcore litigation team < hardcore bonehead deal making

 

[nvx1977]

Not a fan of the way this guy flip flops. But his entitled to his opinion.

I personally disliked how he basically pumped TSLA Stock when it was trading in the 800 and 900s and now that it benefits him his shitting on the stock. Anyone who took his advice would of had to sell at a loss

I don't really care that his position on TSLA flip flopped. He's adapting to forces on the market that didn't exist when the stock was making its run above 1000 (presplit). What it says is that he's not truly a long-term investor, and that he's willing to time the market when it seems 'obvious to him' that things are going to go down.

There's always uncertainty when you sell or buy. "Did I get out too early?" "Has the SP dropped low enough for me to get back in?" You take on this burden when you try to time the markets. Maybe he times things perfectly. Good for him. For people who didn't sell at the peak, his advice or predictions are not so useful because the delta between high and low is now much smaller. Why bother.... just HODL and ride out the storm.

Recession loss of demand is temporary, and TSLA financials are healthy enough to weather this storm. Sure SP might take a beating during this time, but for long-term investors, it's a good time to DCA.

Instead of timing the market via selling/shorting TSLA, I horded cash. I'm now in a good position to add more TSLA. I tend to think we have a year or two before we see any meaningful rally, so I'll pick up more TSLA while people are afraid.

 

[thx1139]

I think it is dumb to remove the ultrasonics until the software is complete. If it is truly a couple months until Tesla Vision can handle the removal why not just wait until the software is done. Dont see it as a good thing to remove capabilities even in just short term. Should just have waited until replacement software is ready.

 

[Mengy]

What do you guys think of bear argument by Chicken Genius that lead to his TSLA price target of $140. Apparently, he sold most of his TSLA shares and became a full on bear.
I personally think some of his arguments are wack but there's a few that is out of my knowledge. Just want hear some great opinion from TMC. I left some points out as they're just pure garbage.

He's turned into a "time the market" guy, a gambler. The very "donkeys" he used to make fun of on his YT channel. For that reason he's lost all credibility to me, he flip flops even more than Meet Kevin does and that's saying something.

I'm a long term stock investor, and I don't have a crystal ball to time the market effectively, so I buy and I hold. Period. Thus, his newfound direction of advice is meaningless to me.

I wish him luck, but I unsubbed him for the reasons above. I don't care what TSLA does in the short term, my time horizon is years out and in that respect I'm very confident to simply hold onto my shares and let them grow.

 

[willow_hiller]

I think it is dumb to remove the ultrasonics until the software is complete. If it is truly a couple months until Tesla Vision can handle the removal why not just wait until the software is done. Dont see it as a good thing to remove capabilities even in just short term. Should just have waited until replacement software is ready.

It seems like it was the plan to do them simultaneously. Elon tweeted that there were end-of-September deadlines for the new version of Smart Summon.

But obviously the software deadlines slipped, and the manufacturing of ultrasonic-less vehicles has already begun. So Tesla could either:

1. Waste space holding already manufactured vehicles without ultrasonics. Retool the assembly lines to add them back. And then retool again in a couple of months.

Or

2. Ship cars without Smart Summon and Park Assist for a couple of months, and then update them OTA when the software is ready.

 

[mongo]

I think it is dumb to remove the ultrasonics until the software is complete. If it is truly a couple months until Tesla Vision can handle the removal why not just wait until the software is done. Dont see it as a good thing to remove capabilities even in just short term. Should just have waited until replacement software is ready.

Two words: supplier agreements.
Tesla can't just stop buying sensors when the software starts working. They also need to coordinate with the bumper fascia supplier (especially if the holes are created via mold).
So, Tesla tells supplier X months (based on contract) ahead of time that they will be reducing the order amount; and that becomes the change over date that software needs to hit.

It also remains to be seen how degraded the four features are, and for how long. Tesla needs to alert buyers of the potential capability change before purchase, but the actual switch could be fairly uneventful.

 

[ZeApelido]

Excellent video. Dave Lee is looking for some robotic experts to interview. Maybe that can help your channel out.

Tho I would like to know in your opinion where Tesla is taking this using the FSD software stack? Why are they spending so much time doing all the classical stuff right now? And you mentioned that deep learning also doesn't translate very well into the real world, what can potentially Tesla bring to the table that can make it work?

Thanks. I'm not trying to market my channel nor make money - just get my views expressed.

I think it's great they are using the FSD software stack for perception - this is a major obvious advantage and "cheat code" to start off with that others don't have.

My guess is much like the FSD planning code was (and still partially / mostly is?) Software 1.0 that they want to convert to Software 2.0 (neural nets), the same approach is happening with the bot. They want to get some code up and running to get it "working" at a very basic level first. Plus they wanted to have a demo very soon after having the prototype built.

Yes I think they should stop spending so much time on classical stuff and move to deep learning, but it may take years to get that working well.

Deep learning can work well, it will just have to eventually be learning on real world data with appropriate fundamental cost functions, not trying to match specific human or simulation - generated trajectories. Fundamental cost functions like - 1) achieve task without falling down, 2) keep energy expenditures low, 3) avoid high impact forces. Things that humans also tend to optimize for when advancing their motor coordination.

Step 1: Deep reinforcement learning in simulation on a large variety of basic balance / movement tasks and diverse challenging conditions, with core cost functions mentioned above (not following trajectories - maybe only in a very loose sense). They could have this done in 2023.

Step 2: Deploy as many robots as they can into a special robot test facility. Facility is designed to allow robots to move around tethered from above and interact with all different types of surfaces and perturbations. Robots are initialized with motor code developed in Step 1 but will still fail initially (like the facebook research). Robots will iteratively improve by sending failure / success data to cloud and receive updated code to further iterate while improving the same global cost functions.

[note, we could avoid the "tethering" if the bots can really learn how to fall well (and get back up) first - we simply don't want to damage the bot]

 

[Dig deeper]

What do you guys think of bear argument by Chicken Genius that lead to his TSLA price target of $140. Apparently, he sold most of his TSLA shares and became a full on bear.
I personally think some of his arguments are wack but there's a few that is out of my knowledge. Just want hear some great opinion from TMC. I left some points out as they're just pure garbage.

Chicken Bear Argument -

1. This is one of the worst economic situations ever. Do you think people will buy a premium car? Auto sale is one the first to get hit.
   
2. Tesla Backlog shrinking, back order are being exhausted.
   
3. Market share decreasing

1. Total demand destruction, China has 1 week. Where else will they get there order from? China economy is in poo, EU is even poo poo er.

1. Nobody can explain to me high cash flow and 18B cash for a company that grows 50% yr. Management knows something we dont.
2. Giga Berlin - cost of energy will directly affects cost of manufacturing.

watch youtube here

He sure needs a lot of words to say the same thing we've been hearing for years. Tldr: demand problems.

As the name would imply, truly a genius.

I'm sure his opinion would be the same had he not sold his entire tsla position. /s

 

[Knightshade]

That's because they aren't using their occupancy network or at least the current version of it used for FSD beta in the video. They're using old code that has largely remained unchanged for years coupled with ultrasonics. The "new way" of doing things, which they feel will replace the need for ultrasonics, is completely different. And you can't gauge how well it will work based on the completely different system being demonstrated there.

Clarification--- the SW was updated- specifically to use vision (plus US)- a while ago now (starting roughly August 2021).... it is a LOT better than the old legacy code, though I'm unsure if it only exists on HW3 and/or FSDb cars. THAT said- it's still noticeably slower than a human can do it, but it's at least usable fast while the old system was not and I never used it except as a tech demo for people back when most cars didn't do it.

Presumably this next rev that is vision only and streams in more FSDb tech will be another significant improvement on that to where you'd actually want to use it most/all the time.

No change on cars they have it only new cars I suspect they add a front camera on bupper

There'd be nothing for the front cam to connect to. Each camera has its own dedicated run to its own dedicated input on the driving computer.
(I suppose HW4 might change that- but we've already seen front bumpers for non-ultrasonic cars and there's no camera on em-- and it'd be a challenging retrofit if they were looking to move whole fleet to this anyway)

The greatest generator of Tesla car demand will be the completion of FSD. When only Tesla cars can drive themselves, who will want any other brand? We are months away from that radical shift in the auto market

We really are not- and those in the beta seem to mostly agree on this point (myself included).

We MIGHT be months away from wide release, in NA only, of fsdb, at level 2 where humans are still required to supervise though.

Which is still amazing. But RTs remain a lot more than "months" away.

The first Dojo Exapod won't even be operational for months yet (Q1 2023 was the announced target at AI Day 2), let alone the whole 7-pod cluster they plan.

 

[jw934]

E For Electric YouTube channel has a video on the software problems of VW ID4, but the Electric Viking’s summary of the E video is much more digestible.

E was ghosted by both VW and Rivian for his negative videos pointing out issues that I feel justified as severe enough to be pointed out.

While all 7 ID4 problems listed are bad, my M3 SR+ is also far from free of software problems. The one this morning, for example, is one I have not experienced nor heard before - The right scroll wheel/button stopped working. Even after I finish my task and was preparing to drive home it still did not work. A quick reset fixed the issue.

I think Tesla might benefit from adapting aspects of the QA process from Spacex as they are surely held to a different standards.

 

[unk45]

I hope you're right. I rely on those little sensors a lot!

Imagine you're driving in, say, Bergamo, in those very, very narrow places in the Città Alta that are accessible for BEV but not others. Then imagine you're in a Model X. You really, really need very high precision. My oft=posted trip there shows one place that had 8cm on either side. There is zero chance I would have avoided damage were I driving with my vision.

Especially in old cities around the world that is common. Will vision be enough? I do not know. I do worry. That is a common use case in much of the world.

In Southern California and Texas, probably almost never.
As for Model X rear doors, I speculate they'll not eliminate those sensors, visual cues are not very accessible there anyway.

Surely they'll have solutions soon, if not immediately. The new solutions will be cheaper but more mathematically complex. The AI Autopilot team will have fun with these use cases, I'm sure. The visual screen representations will be as they now are, I hope!

As an aside, they must be close to remove outside rearview mirrors. Regulatory issues can be managed. BMW was pitching that in 2016:

BMW shows off mirrorless concept car at CES

The BMW i8 concept car revealed during CES features cameras placed where side view mirrors would be, and on the top inside of the back window.

money.cnn.com

Many others have done this too, and Tesla has repeatedly said it was coming.
When?

 

[Singuy]

Clarification--- the SW was updated- specifically to use vision (plus US)- a while ago now (starting roughly August 2021).... it is a LOT better than the old legacy code, though I'm unsure if it only exists on HW3 and/or FSDb cars. THAT said- it's still noticeably slower than a human can do it, but it's at least usable fast while the old system was not and I never used it except as a tech demo for people back when most cars didn't do it.

Presumably this next rev that is vision only and streams in more FSDb tech will be another significant improvement on that to where you'd actually want to use it most/all the time.




There'd be nothing for the front cam to connect to. Each camera has its own dedicated run to its own dedicated input on the driving computer.
(I suppose HW4 might change that- but we've already seen front bumpers for non-ultrasonic cars and there's no camera on em-- and it'd be a challenging retrofit if they were looking to move whole fleet to this anyway)






We really are not- and those in the beta seem to mostly agree on this point (myself included).

We MIGHT be months away from wide release, in NA only, of fsdb, at level 2 where humans are still required to supervise though.

Which is still amazing. But RTs remain a lot more than "months" away.

The first Dojo Exapod won't even be operational for months yet (Q1 2023 was the announced target at AI Day 2), let alone the whole 7-pod cluster they plan.

I think we can wide release beta and at 160k people, it's practically wide release.

The data shows FSD beta is safe as people are able to intervene without putting themselves and others in danger. That is all you need for wide release. Fsd beta just needs to be safe, it doesn't have to be good.

 

[Krugerrand]

What do you guys think of bear argument by Chicken Genius that lead to his TSLA price target of $140. Apparently, he sold most of his TSLA shares and became a full on bear.
I personally think some of his arguments are wack but there's a few that is out of my knowledge. Just want hear some great opinion from TMC. I left some points out as they're just pure garbage.

Chicken Bear Argument -

1. This is one of the worst economic situations ever. Do you think people will buy a premium car? Auto sale is one the first to get hit.
   
2. Tesla Backlog shrinking, back order are being exhausted.
   

1. Market share decreasing

1. Total demand destruction, China has 1 week. Where else will they get there order from? China economy is in poo, EU is even poo poo er.

1. Nobody can explain to me high cash flow and 18B cash for a company that grows 50% yr. Management knows something we dont.

1. Giga Berlin - cost of energy will directly affects cost of manufacturing.

watch youtube here

 

[Krugerrand]

Thanks for your explanation. Let's hope this YouTube channel wil review AutoPark again after their cars are upgraded to the occupancy network version of FSD.

Yeah, let’s hope. Everything hinges on them re-reviewing.

 

[unk45]

X is coming.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1577428272056389633

Reference: X.com
After reading a little, just imagine how all that will work together in 2023.
Just for the diversion of it, check out Nubank history and value progression.
Nubank is pretty much the Elon 2010 vision for PayPal before Peter Thiel stole it form him.
FWIW, Peter Thiel opposed Elon vision, made money for both of them but set back the vision until now.
That is what "X is coming" is all about. That isn't a secret, Elon has told us several times but few believe it.
I've posted on this a couple of times to yawns. He now has explicitly told anybody who checks the history. BTW, he now owns the website x.com and said it was for nostalgia. Is he a nostalgic kind of fellow, or a visionary?

 

[unk45]

X.com hype can get in line behind the 2018 coast to coast FSD, the 2020 roadster, the 2021 semi, the 2021 cybertruck, the 2021 ATV, and the 2027 Optimus.

I left robotaxi out as I don't recall an initial timeline estimate on that. (Yes, estimates, not promises)

This is not hype. I'll happily wager on 2023 reveal of new use cases/functions working and licensed. With small odds I'll even forecast the minimalist product lineup types.
It's no secret. he wrote much of this one in 2009, all it needs is updating for technology change,