Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

I thought our beta was ~2, not 1/2? Or is it 1/2 on green days and 2 on red days?

Max pain is $225 tomorrow and there's a nice call spike at $220 too. MM's are more than happy to eat these share orders all afternoon just to print profits on letting those calls expire.

Good volume today tho, so I wouldn't be surprised to see some covering in the last hour or AH.

A glimmer of hope that perhaps the float will be tightish when earnings land on Wednesday.

 

[Question]

US bullying CAN/Mexico? Taking advantage of eu?

USA hatred, which is primarily envy of their superpower status, makes me sad. I think it is the root for many ongoing things in the world (terrorism, Ukraine war). I kind of get it - I spent most of my life hating the US, convincing myself (!) and others that it's evil and it's worse than EU etc. I only realized my real subconscious opinion when I started investing with my own hard earned money: I didn't even think any other market than the US market.

They are also preserving freedom in Europe and giving selflessly insane amount of money to Ukraine when their independency is in question.

Most of you probably laugh at this whole reply but I just want to thank all Americans here for being such amazing people and country.

 

[Unpilot]

I have a friend in this industry (sadly). Producers do not want to ramp up drilling and the multi-year expenses associated with that. For better or worse, they have concerns about the current administration "pulling the rug out from under them when prices come back down". Don't shoot the messenger, that's just what I was told as to why they don't want to "drill more". Keystone pipeline is still very fresh in their minds and what they lost in terms of investment there. They are about at limits of what current wells can do without drilling more.

Quite the quandary we (as a species) have put ourselves's in, isn't it?

On the one hand we absolutely need cheap oil.....however when we have it we don't think it will ever end so no need for alternative sources.
Then when a viable alternative is presented....we throw as many road blocks as possible to make sure said alternative is slowed or stopped.

We are a curious species.

 

[ThisStockGood]

Sorry about that...my order for 4M shares did not execute at $200 /s

Elon? Is that you?

 

[Ogre]

No Charles is King

FTFU (I use U for "you" sometimes ...)

FTFU… I’m pretty sure that’s the British English spelling of the acronym.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I have a friend in this industry (sadly). Producers do not want to ramp up drilling and the multi-year expenses associated with that. For better or worse, they have concerns about the current administration "pulling the rug out from under them when prices come back down". Don't shoot the messenger, that's just what I was told as to why they don't want to "drill more". Keystone pipeline is still very fresh in their minds and what they lost in terms of investment there. They are about at limits of what current wells can do without drilling more.

And that's basically my point....these sentiments don't reconcile with the story being told.

If supply is truly tight, then surely boosting Permian production via drilling is logical with WTI at $80-100. That was the whole point of the majors buying up the Permian. It's not like fracked wells have a very long lifespan anyway.

The whole point is they can react to markets quickly. Drilling a Permian well now only costs about $2M, and can be drilled in 8-14 days.

These entities have the land and the resources to bring more supply online rapidly, and they aren't. The only logical reason they wouldn't is concerns over weak demand relative to supply.

Unless of course there's absolutely no workers to be found. But I doubt that very much. I find it hard to believe production has been magically capped at exactly 12Mb/d for the last year because that's exactly the max that can be produced. Quite a coincidence!

 

[insaneoctane]

I suspect @Papafox summary of today will show strong shenanigans. Even with this volume. Just IMHO.

 

[traxila]

I think I would have preferred a gradual ramp up to a not so bad day.

Instead this moonshot in the macros stinks of bear market rally. It was obviously oversold and the 125 basis points are already baked in at higher levels than here, but come on now. Short covering galore.

Talking heads were hammering how bad this CPI print was, while simultaneously focusing on shelter inflation (admitted nine month lag and hitting a hard wall in real time metrics) and food ( oil, supply chain and Ukraine issues) as the two culprits. Would like to think that rational actors are going to acknowledge the damage already done with the tightenings (highest mortgage rates in 20 years? RE is getting crushed as we speak), the still unknown effects of QT (worked pretty well in QE mode. Why is the reverse less impactful?) and the spike in consumer credit borrowing (which means they have run out of money). All of which are not going to be 100% affected by the rate hikes for another six to twelve months.

 

[FSDtester#1]

Elon? Is that you?

Don't expect an answer, if it is Elon, the SEC would slap sanctions and penalties on him for not filing the proper forms of disclosure.
If it is Elon, what's up brother! When am I getting my Cybertruck? Can you move me up the list. I won't tell anyone. Scouts honor 🎖

 

[elasalle]

When will Fed announce their next rate hike? or lack thereof?

 

[Mengy]

When will Fed announce their next rate hike? or lack thereof?

Two weeks.

 

[PeterJA]

Question for experienced buyers of leaps:

I read that Implied Volatility is usually high before an Earnings Report, then drops afterward because of reduced "uncertainty." Is that likely next week for Jan 2025 OTM calls? Or could a big earnings-beat increase IV because the share price is expected to run up?

Right now IV is around 58 for Jan 2025 $400 calls. Just wondering if I can do much better than that.

 

[jabloomf1230]

Two weeks.

Let's hope that Fed realizes that the inflation data that it is relying on is lagging true economic conditions. Another .75 hike will probably overshoot the target and cause a recession with massive unemployment.

 

[elasalle]

Question for experienced buyers of leaps:

I read that Implied Volatility is usually high before an Earnings Report, then drops afterward because of reduced "uncertainty." Is that likely next week for Jan 2025 OTM calls? Or could a big earnings-beat increase IV because the share price is expected to run up?

Right now IV is around 58 for Jan 2025 $400 calls. Just wondering if I can do much better than that.

Yes IV is higher around binary events like earnings. If everything else stayed the same that would be true, but where will SP be after earnings... that too will drive the price of leaps.

Bollinger Band contraction, IV goes lower, and on expansion it will go higher ( I think ) .cheers!!

(+if you think earnings for next couple of quarters are gonna be good, IV should not matter too much in the big scheme of things... )

 

[Artful Dodger]

Really low volume today, so far at least.

At 2 pm today, we were 2M shares ahead of the pace set on the last trading day with 100M shares traded (Oct 3, 2020). Not low volume.

EDIT:
<meme low blood sugar SLEEP>

 

[bkp_duke]

And that's basically my point....these sentiments don't reconcile with the story being told.

If supply is truly tight, then surely boosting Permian production via drilling is logical with WTI at $80-100. That was the whole point of the majors buying up the Permian. It's not like fracked wells have a very long lifespan anyway.

The whole point is they can react to markets quickly. Drilling a Permian well now only costs about $2M, and can be drilled in 8-14 days.

These entities have the land and the resources to bring more supply online rapidly, and they aren't. The only logical reason they wouldn't is concerns over weak demand relative to supply.

Unless of course there's absolutely no workers to be found. But I doubt that very much. I find it hard to believe production has been magically capped at exactly 12Mb/d for the last year because that's exactly the max that can be produced. Quite a coincidence!

Don't take my word for it:

Texas Survey Shows Why Oil Producers Aren't Drilling More

Some 59% of the energy firms that responded said investors were pressuring them to maintain capital discipline.

www.barrons.com

Fact is they simply don't trust the current administration, and did a lot of divesting over the past 2 years. That, and costs are up, and investors are demanding profits (no more drilling at or below costs).

 

[ZeApelido]

Most of you probably laugh at this whole reply but I just want to thank all Americans here for being such amazing people and country.

You're welcome. We're a very modest bunch. But we are the best.

 

[saniflash]

Question for experienced buyers of leaps:

I read that Implied Volatility is usually high before an Earnings Report, then drops afterward because of reduced "uncertainty." Is that likely next week for Jan 2025 OTM calls? Or could a big earnings-beat increase IV because the share price is expected to run up?

Right now IV is around 58 for Jan 2025 $400 calls. Just wondering if I can do much better than that.

We're currently at the 78th 52 week IV percentile, i.e., IV is higher than 78% than the IV over the trailing 52 weeks. So yes, IV is comparably high right now. It has been creeping up since mid-Sep. However, Jan 25 options only began trading in mid-Sep (at least on IBKR).

 

[M|S|M MYP]

 

[ZeApelido]

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Too bad there's no demand for those vehicles and they are going right into the ocean.