Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bkp_duke]

revenue was below WS expectations

Lower than expected ASPs from the rampaging US dollar was a risk noted earlier, looks like that might have been the case.

This appears to be correct, as Automotive Gross Margin was maintained at 27.9%.

My read is that Tesla's increased efficiency offset the raging US dollar and forex losses related to that.


Really want to know what that 900M of paid down debt was. They didn't have that much debt listed in Q2.

 

[Mengy]

Yeah, tomorrow's gonna be a rather brutal day for the stock

We still might get something incredibly positive during the call, but that's admittedly hopeful.

You are probably right.

 

[MTBEndodontist]

Looking at these estimates, sometimes I wonder if we are contributing to an earnings "miss". I fear the ramping of two factories with new technologies may be a bigger hit than we anticipate. I am glad to be wrong =).

** Almost every single one of us were too high. and we missed our own expectations. I hope we can learn and actually estimate lower next quarter.

 

[unk45]

Come visit the western USA. I can find large swaths of hundreds of square miles for you with zero cell phone signal. All accessible by car on reasonable roads (not interstates).

Obviously he hasn't visited much in rural Northern California

 

[Cosmacelf]

Did cash actually get exchanged, or is it just an impact on the financials being in USD that will reverse when currencies recover?

I believe they had to sell their cars at cheaper prices when converted to US$ than they would have liked to. So, money will not be recoverable.

 

[ammulder]

When comparing margins to the great Q1 result, note that regulatory credits were $400M higher in Q1... (if they had been the same this quarter then operating margin would have been 19%) Not to mention the $250M of foreign exchange.

 

[Thekiwi]

If Tesla is confident about 50% delivery growth being hit, Q4 will be something special indeed.

 

[Unpilot]

Can't believe I was off by over $4.0!

 

[Chunky Jr.]

This quarter is a big reset of expectations due to ending the wave. Future quarters won't look as unusual as this one with so many in transit at the end of the quarter. People will get used to it and won't be surprised one way or the other.

 

[traxila]

Record Income.

Record Free Cash Flow.

Record Cash pile.

20 plus thousand vehicles in transit and the wave smoothed out a bit.

This is a short term SP wash people.

WS will try to do what it wants to do, but think guidance and the fact that TSLA has already had the crap kicked out of it will determine what happens tomorrow.

Option writers are thinking great thoughts right now.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

We still might get something incredibly positive during the call, but that's admittedly hopeful.

You are probably right.

They pretty need to state outright, they're planning on hitting 50% delivery growth for 2022. Otherwise the stock is going to be pummeled until we get some data showing they're on track for it.......so mid to late Nov

 

[betstarship]

Some updated Charts w/ Q3 2022 data:

 

[Rarity]

This appears to be correct, as Automotive Gross Margin was maintained at 27.9%.

My read is that Tesla's increased efficiency offset the raging US dollar and forex losses related to that.


Really want to know what that 900M of paid down debt was. They didn't have that much debt listed in Q2.

The paid down debt was the non-recourse debt. It appears that Tesla is internally financing more of its customer purchases.

 

[henchman24]

This appears to be correct, as Automotive Gross Margin was maintained at 27.9%.

My read is that Tesla's increased efficiency offset the raging US dollar and forex losses related to that.


Really want to know what that 900M of paid down debt was. They didn't have that much debt listed in Q2.

Purely off my recollection (likely wrong) I recall ~1b in debt at the end of Q2.

This report is pretty much at expectations. Some minor variances that will bring some debate, but really with how neutral this is, the call and guidance from it are way more important. If Tesla says 1.4+m deliveries this year, the stock will go up. If they announce a buyback, the stock will go up. If they say Cybertruck is on pace for Q1, the stock will go up. If they sidestep and/or ignore demand, margin, growth, etc sort of questions, the stock will go down.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Some updated Charts w/ Q3 2022 data:

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What's a P&D Price and Minimum IC?

 

[elasalle]

2.2B share buyback ... almost same as BTC ... will not change much for cash cushion ...., the people have spoken

 

[betstarship]

What's a P&D Price and Minimum IC?

P&D is the share price day-after P&D report. Minimum IC is minimum installed capacity (some say greater than and don't give an exact number, so I go with the minimum reported).

 

[MP3Mike]

Really want to know what that 900M of paid down debt was. They didn't have that much debt listed in Q2.

Sure they did:

They paid down non-recourse debt. (to $2,335M from $3,086M)

 

[Gigapress]

** Almost every single one of us were too high. and we missed our own expectations. I hope we can learn and actually estimate lower next quarter.

Historically, multiplying Wall Street estimates by 1.3x has been pretty accurate

 

[Usain]

In Q3, I bought a RWD Model 3 to go with my Model Y. It was an old order and I got it for only $39,990.

Sorry for bringing down the ASP. My bad.