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Undercut banks on car loans. Good idea!
(Edit: Who knows, maybe driving behavior correlates to credit score, or other data mining stuff not yet explored.)
Auto insurance risk models have credit scores in their pricing algorithms in virtually every jurisdiction where that is permitted (California prohibits that, yet another reason why their car insurance rates are relatively high.

That practice probably is a net benefit for Tesla. For example in the Tesla 2018 Lease securitization the average FICO score was between 831 and 860 sample values, probably the highest in the industry (They were when I last checked some years ago. It is vanishingly rare to have such high scores in anything).

The actual auto algorithms are not really very complex because driving behavior (driving citations, accidents) is available, marital status and home ownership (high correlations),
sex (women less risky than are men), age <25>70 are the highest risks, plus address and vehicle storage (surprise! On-street parking is higher risk) All those are all readily available.

Some of the most predictive variables themselves have huge cross-correlation with each other and also with legally or morally precluded ones).

The net of all that is causing car insurance rates that are assigned based on actual driving, monitored by vehicle (Tesla), or Telematics e.g Progressive;
Telematics has been used in commercial vehicles for decades.

All these things are commonly used around the world with ‘no claims bonus’ schemes added which themselves correlate closely with the other factors.

Active driving behavior directly measured beats all the other solutions for speed, accuracy and precision. Those do not help with initial underwriting, though.
 
Due to the news Tesla lowered prices in China:

I just turned my vpn on in Hong Kong and went to Tesla China's website.
It booted me 3 times before I was able to start looking around. It looks like all 3 and Y's are 2023 delivery times except performance models, which are still 2022.

This is the power lever they can use to knock it out of the park and shut up some bears after the initial headlines of them having to do it vs. a smart business move imo.
BYD is the only ev maker in the world not named Tesla making any profit, and they are nowhere near the same margins.
OEM CEO's are going to have some very bad meetings tomorrow. This single move should scare all other ev and ice makers into a new pair of undies..
FWIW BYD makes ICE, hybrid and BEV plus much more. The wiki is more concise than the direct company info:
Remember, too, that their hybrid are included in the EV count.
 
Amazon's having a rough time lately. Trailing twelve month net income is $11.6 billion and the last two quarters have actually had negative income.

In the words of Amazon CFO Brian Olsavsky on the Q2 2022 earnings call, Amazon is getting walloped by uncontrolled cost increases combined with a slowdown in retail sales.



Order fulfillment in particular is costing about $3B extra per quarter compared to last year, despite product sales revenue being slightly down year over year.

Amazon's total revenue including AWS as well as retail grew merely 7.2% year over year. It does not help that their business is cyclical and is currently in the midst of a downswing, but that's still pretty slow growth for a company currently sporting a 100ish P/E ratio. Even if we assume the cost pressures are temporary and instead calculate the P/E ratio based on 2021's $33B net income, the P/E ratio is still 36. Amazon is priced for moderately high earnings growth.

View attachment 866880

View attachment 866883



Tesla's TTM net income is $11.2 billion, almost as high as Amazon's $11.6B, but for Tesla the trend is very different.

View attachment 866881

Tesla's revenue has been exploding upwards at more than 50% compound annual growth rate for years, and next year looks likely to see closer to 100% YoY growth while costs are looking to improve substantially, and there is ample reason to expect substantial improvements in gross margin for automotive, solar, and stationary storage, as we've discussed ad nauseam.

View attachment 866885


(All charts sourced from macrotrends.com)


Amazon market cap: $1.21T
Tesla market cap: $0.74T
Difference: 64%
Hypothetical TSLA price if $1.2T mkt cap: $346

💯

Mind you, that $11.6b TTM profit includes like $15b in Q4 2021 from Rivian. Amazon will probably lose money this year.

Amazon (and salesforce) is the most overpriced stock rn. It’s priced to perfection. Even if you filter out Rivian it’s price to operating income is like 100x

Amazon also recently spent a billion dollars on an awful CW-tier Lord of the Rings show, and AWS is going to be spending a fortune soon trying to emulate Starlink with much more expensive expendable rockets…
 
I, for one, fully trust Xi Jinping in reporting truthful GDP numbers to boost my stock accounts.


The more authoritarian a country is, the more they fudge their statistics.


Since Xi took power, the amount of economic statistics China publishes has declined, along with their quality. The reason for this is that it is harder to spot the fabrications if you no longer have proxy data to use instead.


Chinese no longer buy it… Alibaba is down double digits today.

Xi also personally humiliated Hu Jintao during his coronation this weekend.
 
10Q (Large accelerated filer) has just been posted -

A Form 10-Q has been filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission​




" ITEM 2. UNREGISTERED SALES OF EQUITY SECURITIES AND USE OF PROCEEDS

In connection with the offering of the 2.375% Convertible Senior Notes due 2022, in March 2017 we sold warrants to each of Goldman, Sachs & Co., Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (later partially assigned to National Bank of Canada), Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, Barclays Capital Inc. or their respective affiliates (the “2017 Warrantholders”). Between July 1, 2022 and August 15, 2022, we issued an aggregate of 28,853,619 shares of our common stock (as adjusted to give effect to the 2022 Stock Split) to the 2017 Warrantholders pursuant to their exercise of such warrants, which were net of the applicable exercise prices. Such shares were issued pursuant to an exemption from registration provided by Rule 3(a)(9) of the Securities Act of 1933

"ITEM 5. OTHER INFORMATION ..The Board of Directors (the “Board“) of Tesla has established May 16, 2023 as the date of the Company’s 2023 annual meeting of stockholders (the “2023 Annual Meeting”). The time and location of the 2023 Annual Meeting will be specified in the Company’s proxy statement for the 2023 Annual Meeting. The Board has fixed the close of business on March 20, 2023 as the record date for determining stockholders of the Company who are entitled to vote at the 2023 Annual Meeting, including any adjournments or postponements of the 2023 Annual Meeting. "
 
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Did you consider purchasing Puts to lock in the value of your principle when you took out a SBLOC (if you did so)? It seems this is another form of margin, and thus is subject to margin calls and/or share liquidation. However, it you purchased Puts at the same time as taking the SBLOC, you would just sell some the Puts at a profit as required to avoid any margin calls. I consider the cost of matching Put contracts to be part of the interest expense of maintaing a share loan. Nothing is free on Wall St. and they have created many hidden deadfall traps.

@Prunesquallor and I had a long off-line discussion on this topic back in Dec '21. I wonder if he would be willing to share some insights? Finally, @Hock1 (one of the most experienced Wall St. investors on this board) may be able to add some ideas.
I AM using my investments for supplemental income. For the non-TSLA investments (😲) I’ve continued some sales (~5% per year) and, yes the current environment has hurt and I may have to re-evaluate income levels for next year.

For TSLA I’ve used a SBLOC for income this year so have avoided selling. The amount borrowed is far below my margin limits, but loan interest rate has gone from 3% to 6% this year (interest is paid each month). When TSLA rebounds I may sell at opportune times to pay down the loan.
 
The more authoritarian a country is, the more they fudge their statistics.


Since Xi took power, the amount of economic statistics China publishes has declined, along with their quality. The reason for this is that it is harder to spot the fabrications if you no longer have proxy data to use instead.



Chinese no longer buy it… Alibaba is down double digits today.

Xi also personally humiliated Hu Jintao during his coronation this weekend.

" Xi also personally humiliated Hu Jintao " - it's way more important - Xi took over the only other previously tolerated opposition of moderates, all other posts held by the moderates were replaced by Xi loyalists. So prelude to dictatorship Putin like.
(posted in the China thread, but may be appropriate here - Giga Shanghai possible (non) repercussions - Shanghai was the bastion of the moderates more business minded faction led by Hu.


The overbearing COVID crackdown akin to house arrests for all of the Shanghai population (to the point many were running out of food) were instigated by Xi to "teach" a lesson to Hu loyalists - remember also it was Premier Li Keqian (Hu faction) who led the negotiations with Elon for Giga Shanghai.

From the other thread China / Taiwan discussion

Interesting notes from someone really knowledgeable about China and the west, Ai Wei Wei.


PS. There are TMC'ers more knowledgeable on Chinese affairs (sorry, can't recall precise names) , would be great to hear from them.
 
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In the EU news today: gas prices are down once again, currently 96 euro. That’s not far anymore from pre-war levels.
Tomorrows electricity pricing (spot pricing in Belgium) is between 6 and 18 cents/kWh, also far below this summers pricing.
We’re in a strange situation where on the one hand the media reports about dropping electricity and gas prices, and the same media reports about how companies are dealing with high energy prices (mostly stories of companies stopping production altogether, or temporarily during the winter to prevent producing e.g. vegetables at unsellable prices).
 
TSLA stock is going through a storm of its own. Some are saying that based on the numbers the value should be $550 a share. However, the sentiment keeps bringing it down and Elon's mouth and the Twitter adventure aren't helping. What a shame to see good numbers and see the stock dropping. It appears undervalued, but one advisor put it on the list of stocks to "sell before it's headed to the graveyard". On the other side, Crazy Cathy Wood just bought a ton and predicts a share price of $4600 a share by 2026.

In the meantime, I have trimmed my TSLA shares by about 20% and will probably trim to 1/3 or 1/2 by the end of the year to balance my cost basis and hedge a bit. Tired of waiting for the bounce or recovery. I can always buy back in.

In the meantime, while TSLA has shed 37.23%, I have transferred my TSLA sale $$$ to SGML (Lithium) which has gained 291.18% over the same period. Glad I moved some, planning to move more.
 
Toyota to reconsider its electric vehicle plans

Google Translate

Three-point summary
1. Reconsider the e-TNGA platform, as it is not cost-competitive against EV-only platforms

2. Evaluate production processes such as Gigapress to improve production efficiency

3. Develop and integrate thermal management systems

IMHO, they still don't get everything right, it seems, but this would be the practical first step for them to learn from Tesla again.
 
Toyota to reconsider its electric vehicle plans

Google Translate

Three-point summary
1. Reconsider the e-TNGA platform, as it is not cost-competitive against EV-only platforms

2. Evaluate production processes such as Gigapress to improve production efficiency

3. Develop and integrate thermal management systems

IMHO, they still don't get everything right, it seems, but this would be the practical first step for them to learn from Tesla again.

Better late than never? Although they are VERY late to arriving at this conclusion and it will hurt them.


Good luck? :confused:
 
Well, we gained 3% in SP when these China price increases happened, so it makes sense to give them back when prices drop back down. 🥴

Lol what does “lost about 10,000 orders that are unrecoverable” even mean? That doesn't even make sense.

Boggles my mind that Troy’s predictions are given so much weight.
Well clearly those people didn't buy a Tesla and instead bought one of these.
1666617689184.png
 
Opinions vary of course. I think the 'coronation' of Rishi Sunak will reverberate in a very positive way for most global financial markets, not just the UK. His stellar academic, financial industry and political achievements are all confidence-inspiring, plus his relative youthfulness. Of course his wife's life, education and family enhance his credibility with markets.

Apart from those attributes his environmental credentials are unexceptional. However it is not unreasonable to imagine that his openness and approachability may give a discreet opportunity for King Charles to encourage him.

Now all we need is competent politicians in a few other countries including...[fill in the blank]
 
In the EU news today: gas prices are down once again, currently 96 euro. That’s not far anymore from pre-war levels.
Tomorrows electricity pricing (spot pricing in Belgium) is between 6 and 18 cents/kWh, also far below this summers pricing.
We’re in a strange situation where on the one hand the media reports about dropping electricity and gas prices, and the same media reports about how companies are dealing with high energy prices (mostly stories of companies stopping production altogether, or temporarily during the winter to prevent producing e.g. vegetables at unsellable prices).
I think these things can all be true at the same time but would also suggest that energy prices are dropping because demand is being destroyed through economic throttling — if economic activity kicked back up, so would demand and so would prices.

Sounds like exactly what needs to happen is happening