It's also available on major podcast platforms so you can listen to it in your car or outside or whatever.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
It's also available on major podcast platforms so you can listen to it in your car or outside or whatever.
It’s still in production though. Everyone that arrives at the Nissan Leaf dealer close to us disappears the same day. I talked to the sales guys there a couple weeks ago and they said the Arriya is still 2024 for them at the earliest. It kinda looks like Nissan is just kinda getting out of the whole EV thing.It is in the 'discontinued' category actually, great video from Lars.
Nissan Leaf Heads for the Off-Ramp, Will Reportedly Be Phased Out
The Leaf was a pioneering EV when it first arrived more than a decade ago, but it has never been a big seller and is not long for this world.www.caranddriver.com
Well... sometimes it can be.' advertisement is content'
The Hire series of shorts for BMW were extremely entertaining and while they showcased the vehicles, they weren't ads in the usual sense.
Similarly, the anime series Freedom was essentially a long form Cup Noodle ad, except despite the product placement (which if you didn't know they had funded the show, you would think was just slightly unusual, but not necessarily worse than sitcom product placements), it was actually an entertaining series.
But certainly, not anything that fits into an ad insert spot on any online service is going to qualify as being any kind of quality content...
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Boeing (largest US exporter) almost did go under in early months of COVID and was offered a government bailout after begging for $60 billion for itself and the rest of the American aviation industry. (This begging for help occurred after company leadership had decided to blow tens of billions of dollars on share buybacks in the years leading up to the 737 MAX and pandemic problems.)
This was more due to severe short-term problems than long-term structural loss of demand for aircraft though, so that's a big distinction with e.g. Toyota, GM or VW.
Boeing to receive government assistance
President Trump said the government would provide financial assistance to Boeing as the entire aviation sector faces economic turmoil over the coronavirus pandemic. “Boeing got hit hard in ma…
nypost.com
Relief Package Includes Billions For Boeing And Airlines
Air travel has rapidly decreased, and Congress has stepped up with assistance: more than $60 billion in aid for airlines, as well as Boeing and some of its critical suppliers.
www.npr.org
Boeing Co did not end up accepting the bailout it had initially been begging for in March 2020 due to instead raising $25 billion from corporate bond sales. However, this was arguably an indirect bailout because Federal Reserve actions were largely responsible for returning liquidity to the corporate bonds market in general.
In any case, I don't think Boeing as a company would disappear in practice. There would probably be a bankruptcy restructuring of ownership and debts, and the people working there would keep making stuff. The factories and other assets aren't just going to be demolished. For car companies, it's a lot less clear. Also, for countries like Germany, South Korea and Japan the auto industry is a much higher portion of their economies. The USA is a lot more diversified.
I don’t doubt that a bailout will come. I’m just not sure the shape of it.
Say there is a $20 billion bailout. That isn’t going to fix GM or Ford. You still have a company which is incapable of producing a product people want.
This is what my big concern is. A bailout is entirely possible, but would be 100% pointless. Everything that makes GM and Ford critical to US manufacturing is worthless in 5-10 years time. Pouring government billions into that money pit doesn’t change this. Does the government subsidize inefficient manufacturing processes indefinitely? Now we’re back to the weird EV rebates with a union clause.
What’s even weirder is the government incentives which these companies helped create are very likely going to accelerate their demise.
Just can’t get my head around how you salvage Detroit’s auto industry when this really hits full swing.
I think the reason Bezos is perceived this way is that he's changed as his wealth has increased. His success with Amazon is almost unsurpassed from a retail perspective (kinda like Walmart but not brick and mortar), but since he's purchased the Washington Post and trying to compete with SpaceX, he's shown that he's out of his league. While I admit, I know little to nothing about his management style, it does appear to be quite different from that of Elon, who seems to keep his finger on the pulse of all of his various business concerns (and for the life of me I don't know how he does it). Bezos has proven himself to be a good businessman in the past but now seems content to sit on his laurels, which is the complete opposite of Elon.
Personally, I'm glad Mr. Elon Musk is the captain of this fleet!
Does anyone remember the movie, clip, or short when some cops? were chasing a model S where the driver had passed out (I think?) and every move they tried to make was overdone by the Tesla's Autopilot (maybe early FSD) program? I specifically remember when they put a vehicle in front of it thinking the Tesla would run into it, but instead the Tesla just stopped normally.
I was sure somebody posted it here about a year ago, but I could be mistaken. It was similar to The Hire, almost a commercial for Tesla
Agreed.There is another reason the legacy ICE manufacturers will go bankrupt.
This is that their businesses cannot withstand much revenue collapse due to the pain inflicted by operating leverage in a shrinking business. If they lose say 10% of turnover from ICE they mostly (all) become loss making enterprises. And they won't get a separate profit stream from BEV manufacture since mostly legacy ICE are making their BEVs at a loss.
So I expect a lot of legacy ICE bankruptcies in the fairly near term, within 5-years. They should all be rated as junk debt imho. That in turn means that bondholders will catch a cold. Inevitably so too will nations and taxpayers as these companies are very large employers and (until now) payers into state tax coffers. It is going to be ugly.
The sheer operating efficiency (frugality) of Tesla is setting the pace in such a way that even a minor price drop by Tesla causes the most effective competitors (i.e. the Chinese BEV manufactuers) to shrink their profit margins towards zero.
So we are looking into a situation where legacy ICE manufacturers run at huge losses and go bust fast. But also where allmost all newco BEV manufacturers struggle to breakeven. And then one newco BEV manufacturer - Tesla - is pretty profitable.
(That is also the Android/Apple/legacy-phone paradigm. Apple makes most of the profit from a fraction of the market. Android makes a small profit from most of the market. And all the legacy handset makers such as Nokia/etc basically went bust as they failed the transition to smartphone.)
People haven't thought through the implications enough imho.
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Operating Leverage: What It Is, How It Works, How to Calculate
Operating leverage is a cost-accounting formula that measures the degree to which a firm can increase operating income by increasing revenue.www.investopedia.com
The equation, Cathie/Martin V. talk about "The valley of death", was spelled out in this video from SMR, one of his best:
Essentially, the transition from a thin margin, high volume portfolio to a negative margin, low volume portfolio is not possible when you don't have mountains of capital.
The only way to do it, is to create something better than the competition is going to have when you are ready to compete with them at scale **AND** be able to keep up the tight, quick, super efficient innovation cycles.
This just in (hopefully):
driveteslacanada.ca
Tesla expands their footprint in Texas with a new 440,000-square-foot warehouse in San Antonio
Tesla has expanded its Texas real estate once again, this time in San Antonio. The company has secured a lease of an eastern San Antonio warehouse with 440,000 square feet of space. The warehouse is […]
driveteslacanada.ca
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
I agree with this in general (the YT video), but the specific numbers I believe are greatly overblown.
NATURAL DEMAND for all vehicles in 2006 to 2017 is supposed to be in the range of 75-95 mil/year. That's believable, we have hard data for that. It's a slow growth / mature market (total vehicles).
But by 2040 demand for total vehicles is supposed to be 220+ mil/year? Yeah, don't buy that estimate.
Probably we will see some "valley of death" here in the transition, but not to the levels predicted in that graphic.
CLK350
Member
My take is that Bezos is /was an excellent /topnotch entrepreneur with a vision and the oomph to see it through. He saw the opportunity for online shopping, starting with books, which at the time, ca. 1996 were an excellent business proposition: list price was 40% above purchasing price for retailers, AND retailers had the right at any time to return books for a refund.
Growing by acquisitions Amazon found itself in a computing systems mess as each new acquisition had a different IT system.
To Bezos' great credit he imposed ONE standard across all the disparate outfits making up Amazon. This took guts and strong conviction, as this created a huge chaos during that transition.
The interesting /lucky /serendipitous part is that out of this standardization came Amazon's Cloud (AWS) which became the hugely successful cash machine for Amazon.
So, yes Bezos was great in this line, but then he probably suffered that syndrome (called ? - someone refresh my memory) whereby people who become very successful in one enterprise believe they are similarly capable in other fields.
THAT is the main difference between Elon and Jeff Who/ Bezos. Elon has proven that he indeed can /has successfully tackled hugely disparate fields while Bezos is more like a one-melody type guy.
The reason Elon is so different from any other entrepreneur is that he does have a strong physics and generic all around knowledge, and knows to get the best minds on his side, then is able to dig into the new matter at hand, both on his own via readings and with the help of these topnotch specialists.
As both a business and tech manager he is able to make on-the-spot decisions which is highly unusual - normally one needs 2 heads to come up with decisions.
Edit: grammar cleanup
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The projected high demand in 2040 is due to a number of assumed factors.
- The valley of death where EV demand lags supply, and people hold on to thier old ICE car.
- Other people making a decision to abandon the ICE car early.
- Supply catching up with demand.
- Lower priced more affordable models, affordable for more humans.
I'm 50/50 on this part of the graph, but sure that clean transport will be available for all by 2040.
Thanks @jw934! I'm going to repost this as it's the best Tesla non-commercial I've seen... need to have more like this!
"It's on Autopilot!!!!"
Show this to the feds, damn it!!!
FYI @BioSehnsucht
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dhanson865
Well-Known Member
I like the valley of death projection even though I'm not sure that the exact year of the overall low point is right or the end of ICE year either. But my biggest beef is he expects overall market share for cars to hit over 200 million units per year.
I have to chop the graph off at 2032 to be able to post it in other threads without having someone take the conversation off on that tangent.
If you believe robotaxi's happen before 2035 then those ever growing bars in the 2030s make no sense.
I can see if there is a harsh valley and ICE players going bankrupt there would be some unsatisfied demand that gives a later spike. But he isn't graphic a short term spike. He's graphing a never ending growth for auto units.
vs
I have told both my grown children recently and even not so recently that if they don't buy an EV for their next vehicle they are s t u p i d..
What I haven't told them is that if they start to look like they're going to buy and ice vehicle I'm going to buy them both a Y...
No ice vehicles in this extended family are any longer allowed ....
pitabun
Member
She did Elons takeover segment for Nightly News last night. Although it came after they were scrutinizing Trump and the far-right extremists, her segment was refreshing. Thought they would focus on Elon allowing Trump back in, but she sounded optimistic, think she already knew she got punk'd and didn't include that part.
Better than the bit lying Lopez did on Katy Tur's show on MSNBC yesterday... I wanted to wring her neck through the TV screen. Grrrr...
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
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