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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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That Cracked clip is hilarious and too true! It was the Big Sky vid that I was referring to however. Awesome non-commercial for Tesla and Autopilot!
 
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I like the valley of death projection even though I'm not sure that the exact year of the overall low point is right or the end of ICE year either. But my biggest beef is he expects overall market share for cars to hit over 200 million units per year.

I have to chop the graph off at 2032 to be able to post it in other threads without having someone take the conversation off on that tangent.

If you believe robotaxi's happen before 2035 then those ever growing bars in the 2030s make no sense.
I think it’s hard to project 10 years into the future Or even 5 years when there is so much change happening. The point of the chart is to illustrate that ICE vehicle sales may drop off far quicker than EV production scales up. The actual numbers are less important than illustrating the point. If automated vehicles take off, that effect will make things far worse for sure, but it’s a different question.
 
It's not actually a 'waste' if Tesla uses all that funding to grow the battery supply. That is the intension of the legislation. Its appropriate to sunset the IRA law once that objective has been met. The larger issue is, if only Tesla has achieved the required critical mass, and few to none of the existing auto majors is able to survive w/o subsidies, will they continue while Tesla is cut off? That's a sheer waste, and historically, its exactly what happened with the 200K lifetime EV limit per manufacturer with the previous tax-credit. So yeah, it's quite possible to turn into a waste unless consumers vote overwhelmingly for Tesla.
What might make sense is a cap of how much the government is willing to spend per year on the program and if they hit the cap, that payout is split based on kWh delivered. That would naturally taper the amount of support per kWh based on capacity.

The open ended nature of the payout is what bugs me. And the lack of any end goal/ success criteria which would cause it to cease.
 
I hope Washington does some major revisions to the act well before 2028. Well before then, they will be paying obscene amounts of money to Tesla. As much as I love this company, our government should not be handing out that kind of cash to private companies.

The reputational damage is far less concerning to me than the sheer waste of it.
It is possible before 2028 that the US taxpayer will be paying the entire cost of making a battery pack. The bill was not thought out.
 
Man, the hits keep coming tonight:
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I am ready for a veritable *sugar* ton of Cybertrucks. Like a Cybertruck machine gun shooting them out the factory exit faster than they can load them up and ship them. I’m ready for Tesla to beg customers to come to Texas and pick up their trucks because they can’t get enough train cars to send them.

I’ll make the trip.
 
I have very mixed feelings about the IRA (right down to the actual name of the act). By 2027 or 2028, it will be "common knowledge" that the IRA is the sole reason motorists are making the transition to EV and also why Tesla dominates the car industry while the rest struggle. They will claim (falsely of course) that Tesla would be bankrupt or a minor player if not for the IRA which has benefited them so greatly at taxpayer expense. That Tesla's success is a creation of government policy. You will not be able to convince most people otherwise.
Are you straining at nits while missing the caravans of camel-ly goodness? I am amazed that the US Congress passed such a good bill to:
  • fight climate change
  • reduce reliance on fossil fuels
  • bring relevant manufacturing to the US
  • help the working class
  • (all of which bolsters our national security)
There's been a truckload of politics surrounding the bill mostly based on the the idea everything the other party does is pure evil while everything we do is pure gold. I learned a lot about the bill from these two videos:

Talking Climate with Administrator of the EPA, Michael Regan

Going Deep on the Climate Bill with Hank Green and Jesse Jenkins

I hope you're already familiar with Tony Seba's talk: the Great Disruption - Rethinking Energy, Transportation, Food & Agriculture. IMO this talk provides perspective for how important this climate bill is and how important it will be to keep the US competitive during the coming disruptions. Before the bill passed I had pretty much given up hope for the US to address the issues above because partisan gridlock was stalling most real progress. In many ways this bill is significantly better than the BBB bill it was based on.

And, as others have probably already said, this bill may help accelerate Tesla's growth to become the biggest company in the world by a large margin. I don't think this will make Tesla look bad, instead it should help demonstrate that the US government can be useful, can do good things, and can help save the world.

If nothing else (and there's a lot else) the bill seems to have been extremely well crafted. And there has already been a large shift -- bringing battery manufacturing to the US -- since the bill passed. This is what Elon asked the US government to do. I see Tesla moving manufacturing to the US but I don't hear Elon complaining about the bill. His (relative) silence and Tesla's praise speak volumes:

We view the passing of the Inflation Reduction Act as a significant boost towards accelerating our mission while also scaling the battery supply chain at large in the United States.
 
Are you straining at nits while missing the caravans of camel-ly goodness? I am amazed that the US Congress passed such a good bill to:
  • fight climate change
  • reduce reliance on fossil fuels
  • bring relevant manufacturing to the US
  • help the working class
  • (all of which bolsters our national security)
There's been a truckload of politics surrounding the bill mostly based on the the idea everything the other party does is pure evil while everything we do is pure gold. I learned a lot about the bill from these two videos:

Talking Climate with Administrator of the EPA, Michael Regan

Going Deep on the Climate Bill with Hank Green and Jesse Jenkins

I hope you're already familiar with Tony Seba's talk: the Great Disruption - Rethinking Energy, Transportation, Food & Agriculture. IMO this talk provides perspective for how important this climate bill is and how important it will be to keep the US competitive during the coming disruptions. Before the bill passed I had pretty much given up hope for the US to address the issues above because partisan gridlock was stalling most real progress. In many ways this bill is significantly better than the BBB bill it was based on.

And, as others have probably already said, this bill may help accelerate Tesla's growth to become the biggest company in the world by a large margin. I don't think this will make Tesla look bad, instead it should help demonstrate that the US government can be useful, can do good things, and can help save the world.

If nothing else (and there's a lot else) the bill seems to have been extremely well crafted. And there has already been a large shift -- bringing battery manufacturing to the US -- since the bill passed. This is what Elon asked the US government to do. I see Tesla moving manufacturing to the US but I don't hear Elon complaining about the bill. His (relative) silence and Tesla's praise speak volumes:

We view the passing of the Inflation Reduction Act as a significant boost towards accelerating our mission while also scaling the battery supply chain at large in the United States.

While I rated your post 'funny' for all the reasons below, it is still exciting to me to see that the TMC's Investor Forum is perceived by others to have become influential enough over the years for people to feel compelled to deposit their best efforts of what looks more like the highlights from a mid-term campaign debate here. And a pretty good one at that:

"I am amazed that the US Congress passed such a good bill......"
"help the working class"
"If nothing else (and there's a lot else) the bill seems to have been extremely well crafted"

"And there has already been a large shift -- bringing battery manufacturing to the US -- since the bill passed"

But this is laid on so thick it begins to sound more like a GM/UAW 'pumping effort' had an ugly baby with a Trump speech just in time for mid-terms than just an everyday TMC post:

You did, Mary Joe. You electrified the entire automobile industry Made America Make Batteries Again (MAMBA). I'm serious. You led — and it matters — in drastically improving the climate ...

In the last decade of following this forum I have observed VW trolls after diesel-gate, and fossil fuel industry trolls, and TSLAQ trolls, and TSLA Shorts, and even TSLA stock pumpers being challenged by TMC members - so please don't be offended by my response. If it walks like a duck, or if it looks like a campaign ad or a TSLA smearing effort that could be posted all over the internet, it just might be. It is also in the spirit of the TMC board to not let history be rewritten here, regardless of whether it is accident or on purpose, and regardless of any benefit to either side of the aisle. It helps keep this board grounded. Perhaps we could start with your comment that:

"This is what Elon asked the US government to do" (regarding the Inflation Reduction Act)

If I recall correctly......ummm.....no. Elon was very clear that Tesla did not need these incentives, a message that was consistent with his libertarian perspective. And he has been consistent regarding the solution that he much prefers, which is a Carbon Tax. He unsuccessfully pushed the Trump administration for a Carbon Tax in 2017. And he similarly pushed the Biden administration to implement a Carbon Tax to help accelerate the shift to renewable energy, to which the Biden administration responded that would be "too politically difficult", despite holding a sweeping majority.

Or how about your comment that:

"And there has already been a large shift -- bringing battery manufacturing to the US -- since the bill passed."

If this administration wants to appeal to TSLA voters, perhaps they could start by righting the wrong of absolutely failing to give credit where credit is due regarding the transition to sustainable energy and transportation.................and they would have to look no further than the TSLA Mission Statement and Master Plans to do so. To be clear, they need to right the wrong of refusing to even whisper the name of Tesla.........and the Tesla team, and all the retail investors and supporters that stood behind that mission while Wall Street and the Mainstream Media attempted to destroy that company and that effort for profit. And this administration could - and they should mention that it was Tesla and Tesla-alone that took the risk of building the Gigafactory in NV to grow their battery production levels greater than all other automakers combined - and they grew it to those levels by 2018 when they reached a run-rate of just 20 GWh's annually - not "since the bill was passed". And per the Q3 earnings call, it is Tesla that will be building 1,000 GWh's of batteries a year. And they will do this domestically and vertically integrated. And they have created a path for this production capacity DESPITE having previously run out of EV tax credits in January 2020. And Tesla did this while literally being forced to develop their own world-wide charging system because VW's Electrify America effort was arguably an intentional failure, and the US government-led effort to create an adequate public EV charging system was literally incapable and insufficient. And they did so while being relentlessly smeared off and on by the voices of both sides of the aisle IMO.

I am old-fashioned enough to believe that wrong cannot be righted with Spamming and Trolling efforts on the internet. That wrong can only be righted by pulling up your Big-Boy pants and saying what needs to be said publicly, and said very accurately, from the proper conduit for that corrected message, and of course from the proper messenger.

And I am sure many here on TMC will have better suggestions than mine for the content of that message, but I would suggest it read something like the following:

You did, Mary Elon and the Tesla team, and all the people that helped support this effort. You electrified the entire automobile industry, and YOU brought battery manufacturing to the US, and you created a global EV charging system, and you designed and implemented the best energy grid solutions we have yet seen, and you expanded all of this to levels that were never imagined domestically by all of us "incumbents". I'm serious. You led — and it matters — in drastically improving the climate ...
 
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No. I've been through this in detail before. Humans:
  • take >18 years from birth to entering the productive economy (subtract the resources they consume til them)
  • more resources consumer for higher skilled workers > ie: post-graduate
  • bot's work 3 shifts/day, 365 days/yr, while you need > 4x humans to staff the same job (1 shift/day - weekends, holidays)
  • humans get sick, quit, waste time at work; bots get more productive with each software update
  • humans sue the company for monetary gain; agitate for unions; actively try to slow down work
Those are just aquisition and operating costs. Then there's the biology deficit:
  • Electric motors are ~90% efficient; human muscle is <25% (that's ~4x better for 'bots)
  • silcon solar cells are ~20% efficent; photosynthesis (sunlight-to-biomass) efficiency is ~2% (~10x bots)
  • plants redirect most solar energy into growth, much is not edible (less animal feed, waste-2-energy)
  • humans eat animals which eat those plants; this reduces photosynthetic efficiency to 1:100 (diet-dependant)
The bottom line is that humans need ~1,000x more area under agriculture to do the same work as 'bot powered by solar. Now, how much land which is unsuitable to agriculture is suitable for solar farms?

Right now in terms of economics, it costs ~$300/mth for basic fuel needs of a human worker in America. Bot will need btwn 60KWh to 200KWh of electricity/mth. At $0.07/KWh (wholesale solar) that's roughly $15/mth or about 20x less than the cost to fuel a human. Or, you can run 20 'bots for the same price as 1 human. That human's gonna need to be the supervisor or foreman to earn their keep. ;) (this is before the cost of scrub-land used for solar vs prime farm-land used for crops or pasture land for animals). Eventually, you run out of prime farm land, and this becomes a limit to growth for the economy. Solar/batteries/bots breaks out of that limit to growth.

TL;dr It's not even close. Humans can not compete for physical labor. Intellectual tasks requiring experience and judgement are next to go in the list of things that humans aren't as good at as 'bots.

Lawyers, accountants, politicians; I will miss them. /s
1. The implication was comparing a robot to an adult (not a newborn infant:)
2. The topic is EFFICIENCY of EACH. As such you measure work output over energy input for the respective entities (robot and human). You are attempting to broaden the discussion to the ENTIRE system. That’s not how efficiency is measured, unless that is what you are specifically claiming. It is restricted to the subject. I.e. you are engaging in a straw man pretending I claimed the efficiency of the entire chain from photons to human labor is equal to the efficiency of the entire equivalent chain for robots. The discussion was not the relative efficiency of the entire systems. It was the efficiency of only the robot, to only the human. Your claim that a human is 1/1000th the efficiency of a robot is exactly equivalent to claiming you need to supply the robot only 1/1000th as much energy for the same output, regardless of the efficiency of the systems that provide the energy as an input.
 
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1. The implication was comparing a robot to an adult (not a newborn infant:)
2. The topic is EFFICIENCY of EACH. As such you measure work output over energy input for the respective entities (robot and human). You are attempting to broaden the discussion to the ENTIRE system. That’s not how efficiency is measured, unless that is what you are specifically claiming. It is restricted to the subject. I.e. you are engaging in a straw man pretending I claimed the efficiency of the entire chain from photons to human labor is equal to the efficiency of the entire equivalent chain for robots. The discussion was not the relative efficiency of the entire systems. It was the efficiency of only the robot, to only the human. Your claim that a human is 1/1000th the efficiency of a robot is exactly equivalent to claiming you need to supply the robot only 1/1000th as much energy for the same output, regardless of the efficiency of the systems that provide the energy as an input.

Soo... your point is that if you don't count all the relevant factors, then humans are as good as robots?

So, no, they aren't. Electric motors are 90% efficient, humans are only 20% efflicient WHILE they're working. (that's -4x)

Humans only work about 6.5 hours per day, while robots work about 20 hrs (-3x). And humans take vacations (-10%). And sick time (pick a number, but add training time for the replacement worker).

This is a losing arguement. On current energy costs alone, it's already 20x cheaper to run a robot. And I don't have to pay retirement benefits to the robot.

Just no.
 
I hope Washington does some major revisions to the act well before 2028. Well before then, they will be paying obscene amounts of money to Tesla. As much as I love this company, our government should not be handing out that kind of cash to private companies.

The reputational damage is far less concerning to me than the sheer waste of it.

Government does not pay Tesla under IRA.

Basically, the US government has decided to reduce future tax payments on these energy initiatives in bulk to lower manufacturing/ consumer cost. Tesla just happens to be a large player in the field. There is some reduction in taxes relative to those previously paid, but Tesla was never the one paying them (Panasonic in GF1 was).

IRA credits are non-refundable
The government does not pay Tesla.
Rather, Tesla does not pay the government
Which is the same as it has always been from a corporate tax point of view (net US loss, only paid state and employment tax)

Further, Tesla US will need to greatly increase net income to even have tax to offset (they still have billions in loss carry forward).

In the case of Tesla selling excess credits to others, the transferee is still on on hook for taxes on the amount paid to Tesla (non-deductable payments) and the credits are still non-refundable.

Tesla will be selling credits (paid by others) until they:
Get US net positive (thanks for Megapack, Semi, and Texas)
And work through their carry forward loss
Then, they will be offsetting future federal taxes.
No flow from government (other's taxes) to Tesla.

It is possible before 2028 that the US taxpayer will be paying the entire cost of making a battery pack. The bill was not thought out.
???
If I purchase a non IRA Tesla this year. How much of the pack am I paying for?
(previous section included by reference)
 

"20k Model Y built at Giga Texas to date."
This bodes well for Q4 production.

Some quick math:
Based on Troy and Rob, around 11-12k Model Y were built at Giga Texas until the end of the third quarter.
Hence, 8-9k Model Y were built in 29 days of October. This is already an average weekly rate of above 2,000 cars with quite some more growth in Q4.

For comparison: Troy estimated on October 11 around 15k Model Y deliveries in Q4 from Texas. Even with the current run rate, we should be at above 25k Model Y produced.
 
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I suspect the original Leaf was a big enough threat to the oil industry that they planted some people into Nissan management to "fix" the problem. Same with GM and the EV1. Not kidding here.
No need for plants. Every single executive at every car OEM thought EV's were a distraction and a joke before 2016.
 
Fully aware of all of the above. However, if Congress repeals the act without replacing it with amended legislation, there's nothing the Executive Branch can do about it. Hopefully that won't happen, but it could, that's all I'm saying.
Congress has no power to "repeal" prior passed laws. They can write a new bill that basically says "remove everything that the old bill put into law", but that requires all the same process as any other legislation does in order to become law. The president still has the power to veto it.
 
Plus can a repeal of a bill even be vetoed? I don't know...
A repeal of a bill requires the passage of a bill, which the President can veto. Requires 2/3 in each House to override. So not really possible until January of 2025 and this would require the wheels completely falling off and staying off for the Democrats. Pretty unlikely.

If this were to play out, the biggest beneficiary would undoubtedly be the car companies and battery manufacturers that never needed the subsidies in the first place. The EV revolution is happening with or without the IRA, and most likely on the same timetable. I do think IRA will speed up fixed solar/fixed battery deployments however.
 
I hope Washington does some major revisions to the act well before 2028. Well before then, they will be paying obscene amounts of money to Tesla. As much as I love this company, our government should not be handing out that kind of cash to private companies.

The reputational damage is far less concerning to me than the sheer waste of it.
Reputational damage is a non concern but I think you fail to see the directional impact this has on the rest of the industry to realign hard towards locally sourced high volume battery production. This will have a far reaching impact on energy and resource independence, more exports, a high value to the economy for decades. Tesla showed it can be done, now it is time to incentivize others to follow.
 
I hope Washington does some major revisions to the act well before 2028. Well before then, they will be paying obscene amounts of money to Tesla. As much as I love this company, our government should not be handing out that kind of cash to private companies.

The reputational damage is far less concerning to me than the sheer waste of it.
I disagreed for the simple fact, Tesla knows better what to do with the money than any government. Who else do you want to have that money? Unless government is going to stop taking money from the people and keep it in our hands, they should give it to Tesla or SpaceX or any company Elon.

If the amount of money does become obscene, and until that happens I won’t believe any of the conjecture and speculation and fantasies going on on this forum, I’m highly confident Tesla/Elon will do something unexpected and for the world with it. Indeed, I’d rather Tesla collected my state and federal taxes right this very second.
 
Same here. Just clicked on the video and saw that it was almost 3.5 hours long! Will watch another time..

Lex interviews interesting people, but Lex himself doesn't add much value. I wonder if there is a market to edit Lex's videos and simply delete the parts where Lex talks leaving only the good stuff :)