"Looks like slave labor to me" -said by someone probably on r/worldnews
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
No.
If you close that thread they will just whine more here. It leaks over to here too much even with that thread.
jhm
Well-Known Member
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Actually, Elon didn't say the margins that would go up 5X,, it was the value of the cars that would 5X and that would cause profit to skyrocket. Here's the scenario he laid out:
What if a company is making X number of cars with 25-30% margins. And then the cars suddenly have 5 times the utility (due to autonomy) and are worth 5 times as much, but still cost the same to build. What does that do to the company's financials?
Car sells for $50K, costs $37.5K to make (25% margins) = $12.5K profit
Car sells for $250K, costs $37.5K to make = $212.5K profit
note: I don't think Elon was suggesting this exact scenario would happen like this, simply that the profitability when autonomy happens becomes so great it's difficult to believe.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
My wife has been watching our brokerage balance go up and down for 30 years (mostly up) and she knows that's how it works.
She's not phased one bit. She knows that making the right choices and remaining steady basically turns the market into a money printing machine over the long haul.
The problem with utility is that I would by a Tesla to drive 10000km/year and I would also buy one to drive 20000km/year. Did it become twice as valuable to me? Not really. A large part of the value is knowing I have access to it when I need it.
That being said, with robotaxi a car can be used a lot more. But there is also a competition of other Tesla owners being willing to robotaxi out their cars for little bit less than me. So they will drive down the cost to the point that owning a Tesla might be very low value to me. Maybe in some initial period there will be lots of money to be made for owners and Tesla, but in the long run margins will go down what the most desperate and efficient robotaximanagers are willing to make. It's hard to do the math, but imo expecting that a car will go from $50k in value to $250k in value for a long time period is not reasonable. The market will saturate the excessive profits very fast, that's what market does. But in that transation we are gonna need a lot of gigafactories and lots of buybacks and after the technology can be used for optimus, evtol, boats and other fun stuff we cannot even imagine right now.
they’re sucked into the media narrative hook, line, and sinker.
whats confusing is many are tesla investors…
really? as if the lies and attack vectors are a new thing?
why would you believe media noise this time? ohhh, because elon said something offensive.
pathetic
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
I saw this tweet up-thread, but no one mentioned his tone. I considered it to be an unusual tone from Elon. He seemed surprised, disappointed and uncertain. This tone isn't typical Elon. Anyone else have similar read?
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Old news: (from Jan 08, 2022)
And even more news blog-posted on Jan 17, 2022:
Yeah, recent "news" on Megapack production at Lathrop is nothing new at all; it's mostly youtubers & twits pumping their news feeds (trusting your bad memory, or unwillingness to Google).
Meanwhile, progress at TE is steady and on track... as is the rest of Tesla's business.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Depends if he's buying.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Elon has been talking about this overnight step change in value for years. I get it, one day (soon to Elon) FSD will officially be L5 and that epic OTA will be one for the history books....but, what do we model for ASPs after that event? Is Tesla likely to keep selling cars to people who don't want FSD? Wouldn't that be wasteful? Do prices for base vehicles step change up? It seems like we ought to have a few ideas here?
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Yes, it was mentioned in this thread, but people seem to find it convenient to post pictures of tweets instead of the text itself, which is why TMC's "search" feature can't find the comment.
This is also the reason why I always post the text of the tweet, and not a link to the tweet. Folks, as soon as that tweet gets deleted (or even if twitter.com is unreachable), then all that information is lost here.
Something to think about for those here in the habit of posting naked links to tweets...
You can still buy it even if you don't want FSD. You might be allowed to drive manually and kill people, but you will probably be allowed to playdrive as long as you follow the rules and don't endager other people. See Ashoks video
Is it wasteful? Yeah, your CO2 footprint and economical costs will be higher than using robotaxi. But you are an adult, you choose yourself how you want to spend your money. I will probably buy a car anyway, because I like having my own car. Sorry planet earth... At least I buy one of the least polluting cars and support the company doing the most to alleviate global warming. But it is wasteful no doubt.
Will prices go up? Yeah, when demand goes up, Tesla can and should charge more money while they scale to catch up with demand. So for a few years you might have to pay premium as Tesla scales from 2M to >20M vehicles/year.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Official IRS guidelines.
Topic no. 429, Traders in securities (Information for Form 1040 or 1040-SR filers) | Internal Revenue Service
Topic No. 429, Traders in Securities (Information for Form 1040 Filers)www.irs.gov
Per the above rules, your interpretation is not correct:
"A trader must make the mark-to-market election by the original due date (not including extensions) of the tax return for the year prior to the year for which the election becomes effective."
In this case, for 2022, it would be the April deadline in 2023.
I have hundreds of consistent day and weekly trading transactions, so I should meet the other criteria easily.
"A trader must make the mark-to-market election by the original due date (not including extensions) [April 15th] of the tax return for the year prior [Year - 1] to the year for which the election becomes effective [Year].
Year effective: 2022 "If you have huge capital loss in 2022"
Year prior: 2021
Date of election: 2021 filing date: April 15, 2022
So for 2022, deadline would be 2021's filling due date of April 15th, 2022. Note also the normal income treatment of all stocks, unless specifically excluded at time of purchase.
Like any industry, the margins will start out wide and become thinner as the industry matures - Here's my attempt to figure out how many years where a vehicle that cost ~$35k to build will throw off abnormally high profits.
We already know what the current market will bare for human transportation costs - In London for example it's ~£1.50/mile give or take for Uber and much higher for black cabs. RoboTaxi ("RT") might charge a little less to outcompete rideshare but that is what the market currently accepts and there isn't much room to move for rideshare companies on price because they have high cost overheads (drivers). Costs for RT are likely to only be ~£0.15/mile or less with no energy crisis. So that's about £150k of revenue/yr/robotaxi initially at ~90% margin. Not bad!!
The price per mile should stay around this level until all the uber/taxi businesses are driven out of business. There is in the order of 500k taxi/rideshare vehicles in the UK - so it will likely take 3-5 years for Tesla to produce enough vehicles to send to the UK to replace all the existing taxi/rideshare vehicles (Tesla only sold 32k vehicles in the UK ytd and the existing fleet will not fully jump into RT). This may be shorter if it takes a long time for RT to become available and the Tesla fleet expands - but the price will stay high until taxi/rideshare is wiped out.
Once taxi/rideshare are gone Tesla will presumably start to compete against itself but as price comes down demand should go way up. People holding on to cheap old cars will see the utility of RT and get rid of their vehicles, long distance trips will become economic, people taking the bus will see it's not much more expensive in a RT, etc. Meaning that the price wont fall straight from Rideshare pricing to new RT pricing, it will get supported by new demand for a gradual decline in price. Assuming this process takes a decade or so - Tesla will likely trade margin for volume until a new steady state will be found - but the entire time there will be profits raining from the heavens - firstly from margin and later from the sheer volume of miles travelled.
This ignores the obvious software/subscription options that can generate even more cash.
Also Tesla will continue to innovate their product over the decade with all the good stuff you mentioned which will throw off more cash per mile.
Fifteen minutes into this, I don't think I could possibly admire him more. Guy is not only a visionary genius, but absolutely genuine.
Just quasi unfiltered.
Bravo, Elon.
Edit: Finished watching. Re 'stock is too high' comment. Good lord, just listen to what he says afterward. HODL and Buy, if you can, dammit! Move on. No advice, here....
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Do you know where they are expecting the cells to come from for the Lathrop megapack factory? Presumably from China? I doubt and of the US battery plants will have any spare capacity with Semi and CT ramping? I guess that means that storage won't benefit from the IRA for a while.
Maybe there will be some spare Ultium cells floating around.
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