Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[thesmokingman]

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Yeap that was the segment I was referring to when they dragged out their bear and pony show to down Tesla. The trotted out all the same tired old cliches, smh.

 

[Thekiwi]

The toothpaste is out of the tube - covid is on the verge of running wild in China.

Very much a Bad news/Good news Situation for Tesla.

First the bad news (likely negative for Tesla Q4 & Q1 results).
- multiple tier 1 & 2 cities in lockdown, 31k+ official cases yesterday.
- will take an enormous amount of luck for lockdowns to contain Omicron
- Tesla will likely have a lot of trouble completing delivers in china towards end of Q4, and through Q1
- the factory and/or supplier factory output will likely be impacted by lockdown.
- millions of chinese will be severely ill / die due to poor vaccines & lack of health care capacity to cope with the surge.
- China‘s already flaky GDP growth will take a hammering.

Now the good news:
- When it is apparent the lockdowns have failed, covid zero policy will be over.
- once the wave has “washed over” the mainland, and the need to “crush the curve“ has abated, no more lockdowns presumably (unless a much more deadly variant emerges).

 

[Stretch2727]

I know this doesn't count since it's ancedotal evidence in the positive way for Tesla but

https://twitter.com/x/status/1595855743055728640

FSD will probably have a double whammy effect from Q4 to Q1. The deferred revenue recognition in Q4 and then material addition to margins from subscriptions going through the roof (relative to FSD's take rate before). This dynamic will be somewhat muted in Q4 since the wide release is happening at the end of the 2nd month of the quarter.

Q1 really shaping up to be transformative quarter. Continued expansion out of Berlin/Austin leading to 500k + deliveries combined with IRA production credits + FSD subscription % growing significantly from Q4 + all FSD revenue now 100% recognized at point of sale.......Gonna be one hell of a quarter

Plan to pull the trigger on a subscription myself just to try it. $15K is a bit much especially if your not happy with it. Worst cast you are out the $199 for 1 month. Many will make the same choice.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Plan to pull the trigger on a subscription myself just to try it. $15K is a bit much especially if your not happy with it. Worst cast you are out the $199 for 1 month. Many will make the same choice.

Especially on a 2.5 car to score the upgrade.

 

[BornToFly]

The toothpaste is out of the tube - covid is on the verge of running wild in China.

Very much a Bad news/Good news Situation for Tesla.

First the bad news (likely negative for Tesla Q4 & Q1 results).
- multiple tier 1 & 2 cities in lockdown, 31k+ official cases yesterday.
- will take an enormous amount of luck for lockdowns to contain Omicron
- Tesla will likely have a lot of trouble completing delivers in china towards end of Q4, and through Q1
- the factory and/or supplier factory output will likely be impacted by lockdown.
- millions of chinese will be severely ill / die due to poor vaccines & lack of health care capacity to cope with the surge.
- China‘s already flaky GDP growth will take a hammering.

Now the good news:
- When it is apparent the lockdowns have failed, covid zero policy will be over.
- once the wave has “washed over” the mainland, and the need to “crush the curve“ has abated, no more lockdowns presumably (unless a much more deadly variant emerges).

I agree that this is going to be a problem for us. Just one critical supplier is shut down and production becomes limited. Also delivering ordered cars in China will become a problem if everything is closed. A perfect Q4 is at risk of being derailed similar to Q2.

Edit: I can't believe how contagious the current strains are. My daughter picked it up at school. We saw my brother's family for only two hours on a Friday when she appeared normal. The next morning she woke up sick. By Monday, my wife and I were sick, along with 3 members of my brother's family. I did not test positive (despite repeat antigen testing) until I had been really sick for 48 hours. We had all been boosted recently with the new bivalent vaccine. We ended up with fever and headache for 4 days. Stuffy nose for two weeks. Really sucked. My brother wants to test before Thanksgiving tonight but I don't see the point since we all just had it, we all feel fine, and tests didn't turn positive until 24-48 hours of severe symptoms.

 

[Singuy]

7AM . . . and I already have people texting me for FSD beta rides.

No joke.

Haha, seems like Musk wants wide release before Thanksgiving dinner. Debate about Musk s antics..someone will yell across the table calling Tesla a scam and Musk a fascist, you go and show that family member FSD beta on the way to black Friday shopping.

 

[lakefiller]

Reading online that VW is now switching from temporary suspending to wont resume until musk resigns as CEO of twitter

Volkswagen says all brands have halted paid activities on Twitter

Volkswagen's brands have halted all paid activities on Twitter until further notice, a spokesperson for the company said on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

Source isnt great so not posting it yet.

—

Mod: congrats, first one to earn a vacation for reintroducing Twitter in this thread.

 

[MP3Mike]

Especially on a 2.5 car to score the upgrade.

On a 2.5 car you have to pay $1000 to upgrade to the FSD computer before you can subscribe.

edit: On a 2.0 car I don't think there is currently a path to get the subscription, as they don't have an option to pay for the necessary camera upgrades.

 

[Max Plaid]

I don't use the ignore function often (only once actually), but there is a prime candidate out there today... especially after reading their previous posts...

C'mon man, I thought we were close...

 

[ElectricIAC]

On a 2.5 car you have to pay $1000 to upgrade to the FSD computer before you can subscribe.

Ah, thanks for the correction! I wasn’t aware of this.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Haha, seems like Musk wants wide release before Thanksgiving dinner. Debate about Musk s antics..someone will yell across the table calling Tesla a scam and Musk a fascist, you go and show that family member FSD beta on the way to black Friday shopping.

FSD is the ultimate showcase piece of technology that sells itself.......still a bit hard to believe that wide release is actually happening.

 

[ElectricIAC]

FSD is the ultimate showcase piece of technology that sells itself.......still a bit hard to believe that wide release is actually happening.

And only 3 years late.

 

[Cosmacelf]

But, is it human? I read they were prohibited from experimenting on/with humans.

Regardless, should be an awesome presentation, especially with Optimus making an appearance... hopefully the new version can now walk without assistance!

Why would they be prohibited from using human subjects? You just need to follow various FDA procedures and paperwork and get approval. How do you think anything for humans gets developed?

A year ago, they weren't ready to test on humans, but I could see them being ready this year...

 

[lakefiller]

I don't use the ignore function often (only once actually), but there is a prime candidate out there today... especially after reading their previous posts...

Its funny how bad investors like yourself are at handling criticism of our investments together. I dont negatively talk about Tesla outside of investor forums. I want them to do well. However, when the company has valid concerns we shouldn't run from it and should debate/discuss them together.

If you disagree with that statement it is highly likely you dont have much $$$ invested in TSLA and are here more for fanboy reasons. Is that accurate?

Edit: Oh and ElectricIAC definitely qualifies under this criteria. Guy clearly is just here for the Elon coolaid and has no care about Teslas financial situation. He manages to obsessively react to every single post by upvoting anything pro elon and downvoting anything criticizing or questioning elon/tesla in any way.

What you all don't understand is I actually WANT to be convinced I am wrong or told I am overly concerned and if there's agreement how we can solution. But what I am seeing around here is a "go away if you don't drink the coolaid" kind of attitude. Not a lot of debates or conversation. You either :fall inline or you are criticized and ignored." The last thing I want to do is leave TSLA earlier than planned since ive been holding since 2012.

 

[Atomsla]

Calling it right now. Neuralink’s presentation Nov 30 will showcase telepathy. A human that can type just by thinking.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1595643786872225794

I'm gonna say that almost has to be right.

 

[Krugerrand]

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So somebody thinks their mom is more powerful than mine, but in the opposite direction - I’m okay with that.

 

[wipster]

Why would they be prohibited from using human subjects? You just need to follow various FDA procedures and paperwork and get approval. How do you think anything for humans gets developed?

A year ago, they weren't ready to test on humans, but I could see them being ready this year...

I'll see if i can find what I read. It was posted right after the ad came out yesterday.

 

[wtlloyd]

Wow, it took 3 years, but I finally found someone here who needed to be put on "ignore".
Happy Thanksgiving to everybody else!

 

[capster]

Eh, FWIW, I don't think the Swiss Franc is in any trouble...

While Switzerland may not be able to project much military power, the whole country is a mountainous redoubt that is quite defensible and well defended (and, yes, they do have regular soldiers in addition to their conscript militia). How do you think the Swiss managed to maintain their neutrality, much less protect their currency, through two World Wars?

 

[wipster]

Why would they be prohibited from using human subjects? You just need to follow various FDA procedures and paperwork and get approval. How do you think anything for humans gets developed?

A year ago, they weren't ready to test on humans, but I could see them being ready this year...

Well i can't find the exact thing I read yesterday, but supposedly it states no human trials yet on the Neurolink website (I'll be damned if I can find it though) plus there are numerous references by people who should know on Twitter.

OTOH, I've seen several recent articles stating they're going to start human trials prior to year-end, so maybe it will be announced or demonstrated November 30th. That would be way cool, not just for typing using just a human brain, but the applications they're initially working on with spinal cord injuries. If they can make significant inroads in that field, that will truly be a win for mankind.