Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

It would be nice if Tesla would start the year with a small buy back right after the P&D report is released and crush the shorts.

IIRC, tax breaks till Dec 31st, if doing buybacks do it before jan 1st else don't do at all(thats fine), else technoking and master of coin titles are not deserved

 

[The Accountant]

Despite Q4 China price cuts & recent year-end incentives, I estimate that Tesla's profit/car will increase from $14.3K to $14.6K (Q3 to Q4).
Additionally, 2023 China price cuts are possible without deteriorating the consolidated global profit per car.
I will post some supporting charts in the finance thread later tomorrow.

 

[geometro]

I do think this is likely how it will play out. The MM's have now driven it down to trigger margin calls and stop losses at extreme low valuations, my feeling is they won't bother to spend the money nor effort to push it down much more than this. It would just be too costly and difficult. Soon they'll position themselves for the next launch upwards and once they are ready they'll let her rip. Again. And when it planes out for a bit they'll take profits and start the process all over again from a new higher plateau.

At some point Moody will upgrade and we'll see an influx of new institutional buyers, this will weaken the control the MM's have become used to. They know this of course, and I think this huge extended pushdown has been a "last gasp" before it becomes impossible to do it to this degree anymore.

The real question is: when does this turnaround play out? After Q4 2022? Later in 2023? Early 2024? I do think it's coming, I'm just unsure of WHEN it's coming.....

Can someone point me to a source that indicates that Institutional Equity buyers look at Bond ratings for their purchases? I'm genuinely unfamiliar with this.

 

[BornToFly]

150 by Friday looking very possible.

I agree that Tesla's fundamentals are very strong. Definitely HODL if you can.

It's a bit more complicated if you're leveraged.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I have a buy order for 25 shares, and it just won't hit 158 again. I feel like it's a panic buy... maybe I should wait?

 

[SOULPEDL]

I have a buy order for 25 shares, and it just won't hit 158 again. I feel like it's a panic buy... maybe I should wait?

Lol. My lucky day!

 

[KMCC]

My Tesla stock is down well over 1 million and I really am not upset.

One of the main reasons is when I had a million dollars in stock more than I have now, I still shopped at the discount store and still watched my money. Nothing has changed so I'm just going to wait till it goes back up.

I'm just going to hold forever and turn it all over to my children someday.

The mission is still good and I am still going to hold

 

[GOVA]

It would be nice if Tesla would start the year with a small buy back right after the P&D report is released and crush the shorts.

Once Elon twitted 'Moody's irrelevant' I still think it is part of the bigger plan.

 

[WattsHappening]

IIRC, tax breaks till Dec 31st, if doing buybacks do it before jan 1st else don't do at all(thats fine), else technoking and master of coin titles are not deserved

Also, there is the quiet period. IIRC, that starts two weeks prior to quarter end and doesn't open until 48 hours after earnings are announced. So effectively, Tesla has just this week if they want to take advantage of the tax break that ends Dec 31.

I don't see it happening.

 

[GOVA]

What are you curious about? I don't use it for 3000 mile trips. I live in South Florida. There are no pleasant road trips down here.

I was just trying to be polite and let you know that your car sucks.

 

[Mengy]

My Tesla stock is down well over 1 million and I really am not upset.

One of the main reasons is when I had a million dollars in stock more than I have now, I still shopped at the discount store and still watched my money. Nothing has changed so I'm just going to wait till it goes back up.

I'm just going to hold forever and turn it all over to my children someday.

The mission is still good and I am still going to hold

Yeah, it is strange seeing accounts down more than seven figures from where they were not too long ago!

Like you though, I am a "frugal" person and can easily weather the slump.

 

[StealthP3D]

The "Elon Musk no longer the richest man" headlines have surfaced yet again. I was informed of this thanks to Twitter.

It bothers me when Elon can't decide whether he wants to be rich or poor.

Why can't he just make up his mind and stay poor?

/s

 

[Max Plaid]

So imagine you're one of the big industries being disrupted by Tesla and you've been trying to get Musk out for years, well here's a chance, short the stock to oblivion while getting the MSM's to point fingers at Elon's "antics" being behind it, froment shareholder discontent

Conspiracy theory, maybe, but shorting the stock so much down here just before a potential FED-pivot and record quarter/year seems disingenuous

 

[ZeApelido]

Despite Q4 China price cuts & recent year-end incentives, I estimate that Tesla's profit/car will increase from $14.3K to $14.6K (Q3 to Q4).
Additionally, 2023 China price cuts are possible without deteriorating the consolidated global profit per car.
I will post some supporting charts in the finance thread later tomorrow.

View attachment 884493

How about today, to make me feel better.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I'm skeptical it would do anything. We all thought announcing another split would be just the thing that was needed to make Tesla get out of its funk. Well we can't have another split, so the stock buyback is taking its place.

The only way I see TSLA recovering is to have a great Q4, emphatically squash all demand rumors, and have Elon STFU on Twitter and put more focus into Tesla (or move into a product role and have someone else be CEO).

Paging Tom Zhu...hello...hello...We know you are on here!!!

 

[Drumheller]

If investors really want the board to do something because stock price, instead of a buyback, announce a split executing in two weeks from announcement.

And watch the chaos as naked shorting gets caught with their pants down.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

One has to wonder about morale at Tesla as well. I know a couple of people who work in high-end positions in Silicon Valley, while both probably make a nice salary, they actually make their real money from options given as part of the compensation package. Engineers, as well as others, at Tesla have been working their butts off trying to meet the standards that Elon sets. While that is not unlike other CEO's in tech, watching their net worths get destroyed and having a CEO that is more concerned with other issues (running a social media company) has to be hard on them.

I can only hold out hope that Elon will recognize the impact his behavior is having on Tesla's brand as well as it's impact on morale at the company. Until we get some real solid numbers out of Tesla, I'm afraid this stock is only going to move on fear of what Elon will tweet or do next.

Bingo. And it is what I have been saying for months. Amazing quarterly reports, new products, tech breakthroughs and FSD successes are no longer relevant in this investors thread. It’s all about the next fox extreme right wing Elon headline.

Don’t get me wrong. I don’t put that much blame on Elon anymore. It’s way past that now. This is the boards doing nothing approach. I am too much of a small time investor to understand what motives the board would have to do this. Or maybe they are just that incompetent, but I doubt that. There is more to this than incompetency. No idea really.

We are very small investors so not a big deal for us. And we’ll probably just ride the escalator down to see what happens. But I feel for those who are younger and have a serious stake in this company. Ugh.

Jmho

 

[aubreymcfato]

One has to wonder about morale at Tesla as well. I know a couple of people who work in high-end positions in Silicon Valley, while both probably make a nice salary, they actually make their real money from options given as part of the compensation package. Engineers, as well as others, at Tesla have been working their butts off trying to meet the standards that Elon sets. While that is not unlike other CEO's in tech, watching their net worths get destroyed and having a CEO that is more concerned with other issues (running a social media company) has to be hard on them.

I can only hold out hope that Elon will recognize the impact his behavior is having on Tesla's brand as well as it's impact on morale at the company. Until we get some real solid numbers out of Tesla, I'm afraid this stock is only going to move on fear of what Elon will tweet or do next.

Please, let's not worry about option traders?
I'm much more concerned about ~90k factory workers with stock compensation.

 

[EverettRuess]

My Tesla stock is down well over 1 million and I really am not upset.

One of the main reasons is when I had a million dollars in stock more than I have now, I still shopped at the discount store and still watched my money. Nothing has changed so I'm just going to wait till it goes back up.

I'm just going to hold forever and turn it all over to my children someday.

The mission is still good and I am still going to hold

Same for me except my port is down two million. Sunday night coming home from a camping trip and hit a foot of snow and 12 degrees, No motel. Just stayed in my pop up camper in my truck. Saved $100.

 

[gtrplyr1]

It bothers me when Elon can't decide whether he wants to be rich or poor.

Why can't he just make up his mind and stay poor?

/s

It’s looking like he’s made up his mind to me … he’s doing a great job destroying his wealth … after all ,he’s a genius !