Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dl003]

You do know that the significant reason Tesla (and SpaceX) exist is because Elon practices the top half of that ladder.

Your response is in fact typical of every single person who lives by the bottom half of the ladder.

You can either take time and reflect on YOUR behavior and make positive change or not. It goes back to the many times I’ve mentioned that trying on a different perspective can show you a whole different world.

Believe it or not, Im among the minority here who have actually taken steps to mitigate the impact but that doesnt mean I cant call out BS when I see it. I can pack a gun to protect myself but a thief is still a thief. Dont call me self-victimizing when I call a thief, a thief. Im not calling Elon a thief, btw.

Believe it or not, I dont even agree with the original poster who said Elon should get off TWTR. What I also disagree with is the blanket approach of personally attacking criticizers of Elon. Seems like nowadays you cant say what you think is wrong without getting told to go back and self examine. Thats how dissenters are shut out of voicing their concerns.

 

[Queeg500]

this has been posted 3-4 times in < 24 hrs, I feel like a victim of the ladder now

Sorry. I’d better stop. I was trying to help people deal with recent events. But I’m just making it worse for some of us.

 

[Discoducky]

Ah, more art than science. Who knew!?

Art by an artist

View attachment 886053

Art by Troy

View attachment 886054

Yeah, I can totally see it now.

Why I think this is funny is because somehow this is a topic of discussion in the first place.

The mindset is that based on Tesla's profit per car there is near infinite demand as they can 'goose demand' (with various levers due to outside variables like the IRA kicking in Jan 1st) and still make a healthy profit WHILE cratering demand for other non-Tesla purchase options.

So why even discuss it? Tesla continues to manage demand due to supply constraints. Is this not obvious to everyone? Tesla does NOT want months of backlog, they already know there is infinite demand. This is also why new factories are about to be announced and they secured critical element supply chains for 10+ years back in 2015. Do you really think Tesla would have forecasted 20M/year in 2030 without securing these contracts?

My goodness, the writing on the wall has been there ever since Zach said Tesla is overwhelmed with demand from Model Y. And it was there before that when Elon predicted Model Y would be the best selling vehicle in the world. And very soon it will be.

So, why are we discussing demand again? I get Troy makes money based on his projections, but for this thread, it is well known 'how things are going' vs 'how it has been'.

 

[willow_hiller]

So, why are we discussing demand again? I get Troy makes money based on his projections, but for this thread, it is well known 'how things are going' vs 'how it has been'.

I think we need to retire the phrase "demand problem." Demand will naturally fluctuate both seasonally, and due to external factors like overall economic conditions and impending incentives. But Tesla has such high margins and such a large cash warchest that it's hard to imagine any such variation in demand adding up to a "problem" for them.

If anything, those external factors pose a much larger risk to Tesla's competition; and will only serve to highlight Tesla's competitive advantages.

 

[Zero CO2]

I understand Troy's data on the backlog is more art than science. His numbers show the backlog dropping faster than the rate of production in the US for the month of November. Concerning. Let's hope it is people delaying due to the tax credit and not Elon's antics.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603579238740811777

In the long term backlog needs to be reduced ... so in my mind a good thing ... most consumers are not patient or need a vehicle right away and don't want to have to wait months or years for a vehicle

 

[bkp_duke]

In the long term backlog needs to be reduced ... so in my mind a good thing ... most consumers are not patient or need a vehicle right away and don't want to have to wait months or years for a vehicle

It's amazing how close in brain wavelength we are. I was literally posting this in the "thread that shall not be mentioned". Cross posting here:

Regarding concern on having inventory cars:
============================================================
Again, as I pointed out, a better metric is to track how long things sit in inventory. That is still very low. Inventory cars are still selling briskly.

And, as I also said, a natural by-product of unwiding the wave is that you will move from an all on-order system to having some cars in stock. It's not like Tesla has that many different configurations (they are the polar opposite of BMW, for example). 5 colors, 2 interior colors, +/- a 7 seat option. And then most people buy White for their color.

Tesla was missing out on sales because people didn't want to wait (i.e. just had a car accident, need something immediately - those people will not wait months for a car). Having some degree of cars in stock will stoke demand in and of itself.

 

[Discoducky]

Believe it or not, Im among the minority here who have actually taken steps to mitigate the impact but that doesnt mean I cant call out BS when I see it. I can pack a gun to protect myself but a thief is still a thief. Dont call me self-victimizing when I call a thief, a thief. Im not calling Elon a thief, btw.

Believe it or not, I dont even agree with the original poster who said Elon should get off TWTR. What I also disagree with is the blanket approach of personally attacking criticizers of Elon. Seems like nowadays you cant say what you think is wrong without getting told to go back and self examine. Thats how dissenters are shut out of voicing their concerns.

I usually love your posts and I think this is simply tilting at windmills.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Can’t tell you how many times I’ve had someone buy elsewhere even at a higher price because we didn’t have what they wanted right that day/week and getting dealer trades is still a PITA.

 

[Singuy]

The number of demand levers that Tesla has available is just crazy. If, and that's a BIG IF, there was a demand problem in the USA, one thing they could do without changing price would simply be to release the new colors to the USA. I would snap up a Quicksilver or one of those new dark red Model 3's or Y's in a hurry.

Honestly the biggest demand lever will be to change out the front bumper and add something like a HUD. Not that they need any of these things because there are still so many markets untapped.

 

[insaneoctane]

This year Tesla moved to a stock OR cash compensation plan. I expect a lot of employees that are focused more short term will be choosing the later.

Maybe. Employees do a lot of talking and many have made a killing in the past and those that are still around likely recognize that one does NOT want to miss out participating in the employee stock purchase plan when this all unwinds...they also have more first hand knowledge of how things are going on the front line...so, depending on the entry point into the plan, we have to be beyond or near an entrance point where to choose cash would be a big mistake. Retention agreements for floor engineers typically are 1 to 2 years in length and this current low, which might prove lucrative, depending on the timing, fits just fine with that length of time.

 

[Discoducky]

But Tesla has such high margins and such a large cash warchest that it's hard to imagine any such variation in demand adding up to a "problem" for them.

Agreed, it simply cannot. All other car companies have less margin, much higher debt and much less liquid capital. Or said another way, Tesla is best positioned of any car company by a huge margin.

Can anyone detail another car company with better financials at scale?

 

[StealthP3D]

And try to get it translated with Google translate.

I know, I tried to use Google Translate. It said:

"You need a paid account to do that."

 

[Singuy]

Agreed, it simply cannot. All other car companies have less margin, much higher debt and much less liquid capital. Or said another way, Tesla is best positioned of any car company by a huge margin.

Can anyone detail another car company with better financials at scale?

Mattel. Their GM is 48%, operating margins are 22%. They make more cars than all car manufactures combined, and unlike Tesla, they have reached mass production of the Cybertruck and the roadster 2.0.

Prove me wrong!

 

[NicoV]

Incredible number of deliveries in Europe. This is a graph of the countries that report daily registrations. It looks like Q4 will have 50% more deliveries than any previous quarter in history. I'm devastated over this news, because this means the SP is dropping another 50%, right?.... /s

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604068435767562240

Please note that that graph is Model Y only. Using all models we’re not at record levels yet, probably will by reached at the end of the week.

 

[wipster]

The number of demand levers that Tesla has available is just crazy. If, and that's a BIG IF, there was a demand problem in the USA, one thing they could do without changing price would simply be to release the new colors to the USA. I would snap up a Quicksilver or one of those new dark red Model 3's or Y's in a hurry.

Great idea and agreed, but there will have to be some major mods to the Austin paint shop first. They're not just different colors, it's the process in which they're made that give them that iridescent glow.

They could conceivably import some from Giga Berlin I suppose, but that's a lot more cost for small reduction in demand.

 

[Krugerrand]

My point is you can't tell anything about demand until you see how many cars are in the lot AFTER the quarter ends. Even then, with the IRA starting Jan1, this quarter could be an anomaly, with "demand" suddenly returning Jan 1st after all the care-bears write their "no demand" stories.

I was being totally sarcastic suggesting that it was all and always Tesla ‘staging’ their business - like homes are staged for sale.

 

[bkp_duke]

Honestly the biggest demand lever will be to change out the front bumper and add something like a HUD. Not that they need any of these things because there are still so many markets untapped.

Another example of a demand lever requiring little cost to Tesla and no price change: refresh of the model (due for the M3)

 

[Discoducky]

The below might be helpful for folks who are handwringing over Tesla and how it is being run.

After sitting in a room with Elon (and JB who is also a huge brain) for hours and hours solving various engineering issues, I came away with only a few thoughts. I believe these will continue to be objective facts for his behavior for all future decision making.

#1 He'll never stop as he is driven by something that is awe inspiring. Like real 'awe' if you've ever felt that. For anyone who has been around someone with high functioning Aspergers (or towards the end of the Autism spectrum) and watching them, in-real-time, solve complex issues that teams of engineers have been stuck on, then you'd understand where I'm coming from. I witnessed this multiple times.

#2 He'll most likely not listen/trust anything other than engineering/physics first principles. This is why the social stuff is challenging and he is a human with emotions. However, he'll continue to apply FPs to the problem until it is done.

#3 For any other trait or personality question, apply #1 and #2

In short, handwringing over Elon is pointless.

 

[Krugerrand]

Here's a different perspective YOU can try:

"Sometimes, I’m just plain wrong!" -Elon Musk

Elon Musk Admits To Tesla Team, 'Sometimes, I'm Just Plain Wrong'

You may have seen reports about Tesla's Musk telling managers to comply or resign, but those headlines are out of context. Let's take a look at the email.

insideevs.com

I’ve never once said he isn’t sometimes wrong.

You constantly trying to suggest that I think he’s perfect is tiresome at best. Give it a rest.

Parading around here, pointing fingers, and harping on Elon is wrong, Elon is wrong, Elon is wrong, saying it in myriad of ways is NOT helpful.

I get it. You think he’s wrong about Twitter, selling Tesla stock, not adhering to your politics and an endless list of other things.

Now what? You want to continue shouting from the rooftops how stupid and insane and off his rocker he is? Or do you think you can move on? I mean, there’s still plenty of time today for him to tweet something else you think he’s wrong about.

 

[AndrewZ]

Yeah... sure... $7,500...
I'll believe it when I see it...
(critical minerals anyone???)

The current $3,750 discount right off the purchase price is already a far better deal than the tax credit that will be available next year, which won't happen at the point of purchase (not until 2024) and hinges on income limits, owing tax, etc etc

If any vehicles can be produced that satisfy the mineral requirement for the full $7,500, I think they'd be in smaller numbers as there is a limited amount of such minerals available in the world and that's a big reason why the legislation exists