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This could be one reason SP is underperforming again today.

Colin has been a staunch bull for as long as I can remember.

We can argue about whether brand damage has or has not happened. But at least in this case, the perception is that it has. And in current market conditions negative perception is unfortunately reality.
 
I am listening to a Twitter space call and some guy is saying that Tesla is going to have a huge earnings hit because of the $3500 discount in December and that we will probably miss earnings. Has anyone done the math on that?
So the $3750 discount only applies to December deliveries in the United States. Expected that Fremont produced about 110K 3s and Ys. Texas an additional 30K Model Ys. So if lets say 60% of those were sold in October and November. That leaves about 56K that could have gotten the $3750 credit. That would be a hit of $210M. if 430K deliveries this would be about a $450 per delivered car hit. Also this mix will be the highest price that these cars have been since nearly all of the cars ordered at lower prices were previously delivered.
 
mea culpa
What we have here is best described by this fancy word :) (no offense) Cheers!!
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Hmm, that is the word that came to mind when I read about the good Senator from MA and her letter to Tesla BOD, decrying Elon’s actions as the Blue Bird CEO…. Such irony.

This morning’s price action has just underscored my resolve to HODL. I will admit I had no idea when I bought in, in mid-2021 and continued to buy, what the stock’s volatility was going to feel like. I have lived through multiple stock downturns, and also learned a very expensive and painful lesson about mistaking business growth and corresponding Share Price growth for actual solid performance of a company. That was Lucent Technologies (formerly part of AT&T), the maker of those batteries that @unk45 referred to. Unlike Tesla, Lucent’s growth was not based on execution, but a market bubble. And I didn’t have access to the wisdom of this group.

TL;DR As long as Tesla continues to execute, the signal will, over time, drown out the noise.
 
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It’s math.

Tesla pulling the U.S. demand lever of a $3500 /car discount lowers gross U.S. profits by $3500 per car. It would have been preferable not to have needed to pull that demand lever at all, unless your argument is that $3500 less gross profit per car has no effect on the financials?

I know it’s expected they have to lower prices over time as production grows, but it should be obvious to everyone that each pull of a demand lever affects the financials negatively and thus the more infrequently they occur, the better for earnings and the better for the share price.
No it's not simple math when you have 2 factories that are going through volume ramp and Tesla's main factory doing 30% more volume than the previous quarter. Anyone with basic understanding of how gross and operating margins are affected by these dynamics understands that Tesla can lower ASP while keepings margins steady and/or improve margins because of this dynamic. And it's just not just theory, Tesla proved this dynamic all throughout 2020.

We're also seeing a much higher % of Y sales over 3 sales this quarter over Q3. Just look at the European registrations as well as China registrations. Y has more margin per same config as the 3.

Combine that with FSD doing wide release which means FSD revenue generated in Q4 will now have more impact on gross margins than before because now all revenue can be recognized at the point of sale. Tesla was only recognizing 50-60% of FSD related revenue at point of sale. I'm not talking about FSD deferred revenue.

Earnings expectations are only $1.25

Tesla will likely do around $1.4-1.5 purely from the volume/delivery increase without factoring in the deferred FSD revenue.
 
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Jan 1 will see a massive influx of new and reconfirmed arguments that Tesla loses money on every car without subsidies. Elon Musk will officially come out the closet as Q-anon, and he will post a poll on the bird app proposing that MLK Day be cancelled as a federal holiday due to its woke origins and and be replaced with a new holiday on Jan 6th to be called Patriots Day. Stock will fall.


Announcement of the new model will clearly indicate collapsing demand for the S3XY lineup. Market will see through the desperate attempt at pumping up the TSLA price. Stock will fall.


Cybertruck owners will be humiliated and ridiculed everywhere they go for driving such a stupid and ugly truck that can’t even roll coal or tow a boat more than 69 miles. Those remaining few owners who don’t shamefully hide it in their garages to admire in private will quickly rack up manslaughter charges for mowing down pedestrians with the sharp edges. After a lengthy series of departmental meetings discussing proposed regulatory changes, NHTSA finally writes new rules making the Cybertruck illegal sometime around next December. Americans rejoice that the triangular menace is off the streets and question why an armored personnel carrier on wheels was ever allowed in the first place. Unable to pay the bills anymore, Tesla forecloses on Giga Texas and GM buys it off auction, announcing a bold plan to produce dozens of Made-in-Texas electric Silverados there annually by 2025.

Stock will fall.


Throughout the year, quarterly financials will be so good that the market finally catches on to the fraud Tesla is brazenly committing in broad daylight. Stock will fall; Jim Chanos and David Einhorn will finally be billionaires again.

And they all lived happily ever after. Except TSLA bag holders. The end.
 

This could be one reason SP is underperforming again today.

Colin has been a staunch bull for as long as I can remember.

We can argue about whether brand damage has or has not happened. But at least in this case, the perception is that it has. And in current market conditions negative perception is unfortunately reality.
Hasn't Gary been just reacting to his clients like any human would to stay relevant? He can't keep defending 400+ without feeling extreme investment pressure from trying to explain his high valuation just months ago. He was quite bullish, more than most as I recall. So now I think he's all CYA. Face it, most did not see this bear raid lasting so long and we're even close to all the facts.

My investments were my money, so it's easier to say that I didn't do it correctly, oops. Now if I were investing my wife's money... ho-ho oh-no!
 
So share price has absolutely nothing to do with company performance, and 100% to do with its CEO's behavior. Got it.
As a first derivative, that very likely can be the case; usually for limited periods of time, but could be longer. Historically, it usually is because of a CEO's bad behavior but if I can tear myself away from some electrical work this morning, I'll try to come up with some examples of good behavior. That might be tough, unfortunately.

On edit: given their downvotes, it appears @Electroman and @Drumheller must know of cases involving good behavior. It would be educational were they to share them with the community.

Or do people REALLY NOT UNDERSTAND what "first derivative" means? Yegad.
 
Just bought more. I'm kind of hoping that eventually the bleeding stops and I'll be a lottery winner with bragging rights that "I bought TSLA at $XXX back in 202X" to demonstrate my brilliance. In reality, it has the benefit of DCA. I'm literally buying TSLA paycheck to paycheck. The most sobering part of this for me is knowing even when the stock doubles from here, I'm not going to be impressed...that truly saddens me knowing how deep we have to crawl out of. I'm not a seller though...steal your shares from some other gullible chump!
 
As a first derivative, that very likely can be the case; usually for short periods of time, but could be longer. Historically, it usually is because of a CEO's bad behavior but if I can tear myself away from some electrical work this morning, I'll try to come up with some examples of good behavior. That might be tough, unfortunately.
Try not to use electrical work and "tear" in the same sentence... sounds shockingly dangerous 😳!
 

This could be one reason SP is underperforming again today.

Colin has been a staunch bull for as long as I can remember.

We can argue about whether brand damage has or has not happened. But at least in this case, the perception is that it has. And in current market conditions negative perception is unfortunately reality.

Yeah, Colin changing from a Buy to Hold is kind of a big deal. I was legit surprised by this.

I don't understand his reasoning because Tesla seems stronger than ever, but eh whatever.
 
Regarding the Inflation Reduction Act subsidies, has anybody on this thread evaluated or discussed the so-called commercial vehicle loophole? Depending on how this is interpreted in the upcoming rules, this would allow rental cars or leased cars to get relaxed foreign-content treatment subsidy requirements. Hyundai is for this, Toyota is against this.

I have wondered if or how Tesla could get US subsidies on Indonesian-sourced high energy density cells. Perhaps this is part of the answer?

 
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This relentless bleeding of the stock sure is tiring. I've been trying to keep away from looking at the ticker every day for a while, and instead hear about the stock price from the Tesla Daily Podcast, but the past few days I find myself looking at this (red) ticker anyway. Feels like there is some pretty good news within all of the noise but nothing seems to move the stock price in a more preferred direction.

I'm still only holding stocks as I have made myself a promise to stay away from options etc., but with payday coming up this Friday, I'm not really sure what to do. I've been buying TSLA stock every month for the past 3 years or so as soon as I get my money in the bank, but for the first time ever I'm not sure I should buy shares right away or just wait for a while to see where the stock goes. Tesla's execution and fundamentals look great, but I'm more and more questioning if "the market" will reward the company with the (higher) stock price it deserves or another new all-time high in the coming years. Spending so much time on the internet makes it hard to see what the real perception of Tesla (and to an extent, Elon Musk) is, with the media being what it is these days.

At least I'm seeing more and more Tesla cars, even in the small town I live in, which always puts a smile on my face. Even the neighbor next door has a new Model Y (seems he traded in his old S) and I think it looks great every time I walk past it.

Excuse my small rant, thank you all for the good discussions and for keeping it cool in this thread day in and day out.