Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Eugene Ash]

Because I'm here to learn, and because I'm not too ashamed to admit ignorance; in the words of a great scientist:
"Ray, pretend for a moment that I don't know anything about metallurgy, engineering, or physics, and just tell me what the hell is going on."

By which, I mean, this is gobbledygook to me; kindly explain this tweet to me as if I am 5 years old.

Synopsis: in a series of tweets a stereotypical Californian postulates that "Elon is not done selling, as he still faces a margin call, as soon as tomorrow". That's a problem with Twitter sources, SNR is too high..

 

[hacer]

...

Expect Musk to complain about interest rates hurting order rate. The market won't care about excuses.

Unless earnings are forecasted to contract, it would seem we are near the bottom.

I expect a record Q4, but if the forward guidance is not good it's going to look like Musk made massive discretionary stock sales while in possession of MNPI about the order rate.

 

[wipster]

If that isn’t a sign of the apocalypse, I don’t know what is.

It's actually a sign that we're accelerating quickly towards Idiocracy (the movie)...

 

[Oveeus]

I wish I had been unconscious for the last 12 months.

You really believe that? His insight couldn’t be helpful to the teams in charge of cybertruck, 4680, solar roof, model2, mining, and hvac?

Again, all these things you suggested can’t happen just because Elon makes a decision. CT needs to finalize the tooling, assembly lines and all the details. 4680 is having challenges that needs time for them to fix them. Solar roof is already on. It’s just not a great time asking people to drop 5 figures. What’s the point to have product available when people can’t afford them? Mining is not something you flip the switch and it happens. And if there can be bargain down the road, why do now? I’m sure Zach is well aware of this. Otherwise they would have done it when Tesla was a 1.4T behemoth. A 5% raise can get all the money they need to spend at 1.4T. But that means you buy things at a hefty premium. Model 2, similar to the solar roof and it just jeopardize the sale of current models if it gets announced. Hvac is again done. They just need to scale the units on Tesla to use for home. But why do it now when people can’t afford them?

Timing is very important when it comes to business. Technology matters, but timing is everything. Multi touch existed long before iPhone first came out. But we didn’t have the technology in mobile sector to make a meaningful use out of it.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

The stock market is valuing Tesla as a company with a leader they cant trust and doesnt care about the public perception of the company.

Aka the buying opportunity of the biennium.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

It's hard not to conclude that the main reason TSLA has performed so poorly is the possibility that no one here got a colonoscopy this year

 

[MC3OZ]

Again, all these things you suggested can’t happen just because Elon makes a decision. CT needs to finalize the tooling, assembly lines and all the details. 4680 is having challenges that needs time for them to fix them. Solar roof is already on. It’s just not a great time asking people to drop 5 figures. What’s the point to have product available when people can’t afford them? Mining is not something you flip the switch and it happens. And if there can be bargain down the road, why do now? I’m sure Zach is well aware of this. Otherwise they would have done it when Tesla was a 1.4T behemoth. A 5% raise can get all the money they need to spend at 1.4T. But that means you buy things at a hefty premium. Model 2, similar to the solar roof and it just jeopardize the sale of current models if it gets announced. Hvac is again done. They just need to scale the units on Tesla to use for home. But why do it now when people can’t afford them?

Timing is very important when it comes to business. Technology matters, but timing is everything. Multi touch existed long before iPhone first came out. But we didn’t have the technology in mobile sector to make a meaningful use out of it.

The Lithium processing and cathode plant in Texas are probably important for 4680 production. which in turn is important for the Cybertruck ramp.

There are plenty of Cybertruck orders, the engineering is complete but equipment for the novel production process needs to be installed and run up.

In terms of guidance for 2023, 4680 production, the IRA, Cybertruck and the continuing Model Y ramps in Berlin and Austin are big factors which may land mostly in the positive column. China demand probably a net negative which may be partially offset by sales in new markets like Thailand.

Take the IRA out of the positive column, everything else is engineering and production challenges, and not new problems, things Tesla has been working on for sometime.

I'm hoping the Cybertruck production and ramp goes fairly smoothly Q3/Q4 2023. One or more Gen3 models are revealed late Q3 2023 and the Model 3 refreshed Highland version starts shipping Q4 2023. Any Gen3 production is Q3/Q4 2024 at the earliest. Home HVAC more like 2025/2026.

 

[Gigapress]

It's still overvalued IMO.

The other businesses other than the car business aren't worth much.

Car business in general ain't going good now. We are also in a bear market.

Still lots of room until the bottom is in.

Provide numbers and reasoning please

 

[Eugene Ash]

Fact Checking I still respect, but Karen has literally gone off the rails IMHO. And that's a shame as she used to have such wonderful posts in this forum as illustrated in posts of particular merit.

Sigh...

Tw encourages system 1, emotional, venting, drunk tweeting. Algo just tosses in random frisky individuals, with no depth, just for sake of engagement. Over time, no wonder one would almost radicalize. I miss thoughtful Iceland reforestation

 

[wipster]

Tw encourages system 1, emotional, venting, drunk tweeting. Algo just tosses in random frisky individuals, with no depth, just for sake of engagement. Over time, no wonder one would almost radicalize. I miss thoughtful Iceland reforestation

"Random frisky individuals"... I love it!

 

[EVWatcher]

Am I incorrect or did the Japanese sovereign wealth fund not make a substantial tesla investment in the last few years? Could they have been todays big seller given their surprise bond stuff?

 

[Tachyon]

It's hard not to conclude that the main reason TSLA has performed so poorly is the possibility that no one here got a colonoscopy this year

Blame the cologuard.

 

[SO16]

Perspective…. (Even if it did drop quite a bit just in the last 3 months.)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605395901450661888

 

[StealthP3D]

Not quite. "Quiet period" refers to when a company is about to IPO and can't talk about the stock.

Quiet Period | Investor.gov​

Tesla right now is in what's called the "Blackout Period" before the quarterly earnings announcement:

Blackout Period: Definition, Purpose, Examples​

I've always heard the period before earnings referred to as a "quiet period", not just IPO's.

This is what Corporate Finance Institute dot com (link: Quiet Period) has to say about quiet periods:

A quiet period refers to, essentially, a blackout of information time period for communications from publicly traded companies, a practice that is required by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the United States.

So-called “quiet periods” actually exist in reference to two situations for companies that issue public stock shares. The first type of quiet period is one that is applied during the time frame when a company is going public, offering shares for the first time in an initial public offering (IPO).

The second situation when a quiet period is enforced applies to all the companies whose stock shares are already being publicly traded. Specifically, it pertains to the time periods when publicly traded companies’ quarterly earnings reports are published.

 

[Xd85]

Provide numbers and reasoning please

label me "concerned" (well, hopefully not that type). trying to understand better from a principles standpoint:

what market force(s) fuel or allow this extreme disregard of fundamentals?
what is the mechanism that forces a "reversion to the mean" so to speak in?
does/can this ever happen to other stocks?

seems due to many loopholes MM, hedges, etc can freely manipulate SP without checks and balances. If so, what's to keep this from happening in perpetuity? I always thought it was unsustainable due to some mysterious governing force but these days have be wondering.

what is the utility of HODL, if it's possible to ManupilateODL?

 

[StealthP3D]

There is absolutely nothing even the remotest bit funny in what you showed. Without knowing anything about Ross Gerber other than what some of you have mentioned from time to time, for a person of Mr Musk's stature thus to misuse his intellect, his experience and his abilities, all the more so after having been gifted hundreds of billions of dollars worth of shares by TSLA investors - words fail even me. How many times has this community known me to be at a loss for words?

That's an odd comment coming from someone who admits to knowing nothing about Ross Gerbers's intellect, experience and abilities other than what forum members have mentioned. Elon has many years knowing Gerber and it looks like he doesn't think Gerber is one to lecture him on how to run a business.

Even stranger is your claim that Elon was "gifted" a lot of TSLA shares. Those shares were not a gift, they were compensation for hard work, and they were dependent upon hitting what most people thought were ridiculously lofty goals. Had Elon not been able to hit the goals, he wouldn't have received the shares.

That's only a "gift" if you believe gifts are conditional upon doing something difficult. In my world that's called compensation for hard work, making the 'impossible' happen, and gifts are given unconditionally.

 

[Artful Dodger]

When the price was drawn to 137 today like a magnet I was reminded of this video from a month ago. It mentions/shows the 137 gap. See from 18:30 mark.

Next few days will be educational regarding gap theory. If 137 forms the bottom I’ll be forever on the lookout for gaps.

Somebody bought 998K TSLA shares at 4:57 pm today when the stock "filled the gap" to Nov 16, 2020:

That was likely short covering. Next is a close-up of TSLA's trading range on Nov 16, 2020: (note the intraday high was 137.48 then, which is the exact same SP which saw 998K shares traded after hours today)

P.S. That 998K buy today kicked off a 1% rally to close the After-hrs sesion. Let's see if this is a Bottom, or if hedgies keep pushing. At any rate, large short-covering trades like this one are a positive for the stock.

Cheers!

 

[Budding]

Perspective…. (Even if it did drop quite a bit just in the last 3 months.)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605395901450661888

This is tiresome. Come on, macro, covid, inflation etc have caused damage, affected deliveries. But, you cannot be oblivious to Elon's role by sales and other T***** nonsense

 

[AudubonB]

The only reason I have to write the following for the third time in a week is not because posters disagree with me - it is because too many refuse to acknowledge inconvenient truths.
"Those shares" aside from yes, being a gift, not only were as you write dependent on hitting goals but they were made dependent on Mr Musk continuing to merit them. And that is what I aver is not happening. Someone has the right to disagree with me regarding that last sentence - but not on the others.

You also misread my post. I wrote - and quite clearly - of Mr Musk's talents, not Mr Gerber's.

 

[wtlloyd]

It's hard not to conclude that the main reason TSLA has performed so poorly is the possibility that no one here got a colonoscopy this year

Well, if it wasn't actually a colonoscopy I had in September, I don't wanna dwell on the other possibilities!