Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JoRoMo]

Am I the only one who doesn’t think this is sign anything is bad? Sure the media may spin it that way but everything seems to line up pretty sensibly with an attempt to smooth the delivery wave.

Edit: with the exception of the mad dash to sell out inventory at the end of the quarter. Almost wish they hadn’t don’t that now so they would have more inventory to sell today.

«The wave» is not about how many units you leave at the final lots, it is about how transport on ships and trains and semis is smoothed out, to avoid congestion and «peak pricing» for trying to dictate transport timing independent from capacity.

Whether to leave cars at SC parking lots or not is a different topic not really related to «unwinding the wave» (even though it does create its own strains and excitements, for some…). IMO.

 

[elasalle]

I would like to understand one point. Regarding the cars in transit, have they been ordered? That is, can we assume that a sale is imminent upon delivery? If so, are we selling every car we make?

Unlikely- otherwise there would never be many cars in inventory
Almost everything ( except a few cancellations) would be accounted for

 

[EVWatcher]

«The wave» is not about how many units you leave at the final lots, it is about how transport on ships and trains and semis is smoothed out, to avoid congestion and «peak pricing» for trying to dictate transport timing independent from capacity.

Whether to leave cars at SC parking lots or not is a different topic not really related to «unwinding the wave» (even though it does create its own strains and excitements, for some…). IMO.

Agreed about the parking lots. I guess I don’t know how many were actually sold in the last few days but my assumption is that it made a small difference to the end number in terms of total deliveries as a % of production and not having the rush would have been a signal all was well and this is just the new thing.

 

[Cattledog]

Q4 earnings call is a giant tinderbox right now. It’s very likely to cause either a huge run up or deepen and extend the trough a bit.

At least these numbers are out already so more focus will be on other aspects of the business and expectations for 2023.

At least Elon won't take over this January earnings call and prattle on about something as out there as Optimus...right? Right?!?

 

[samppa]

Well I am fairly certain that Tesla could easily fit those in at $55K. The real question is could they manufacturer enough in USA to really make it worthwhile?

Meanwhile, in Germany..

 

[Speedr117]

Does anyone know if the price limits ($55k and $80k) are for the base price, the price fully optioned, or the price a customer pays?

 

[dhanson865]

CAGR at 62%

https://twitter.com/x/status/1609973423589199872

Fixed title

 

[bingoz]

Wowsers, $27K U.S. for a Corolla?! At that price, it had better come with a chauffer... oh, wait.

My aunt bought a Corolla with just $18k a few years ago. With current price, I think she might be able to sell it break even, or with a little profit lol

 

[Cattledog]

Settling in between $121 and $122, encouraging.

 

[Singuy]

So if Shanghai in Q2 gave us another 80k worth of deliveries, Tesla would have hit 50% yoy growth no problem. Oh well, you can't win them all.

 

[generalenthu]

Unlikely- otherwise there would never be many cars in inventory
Almost everything ( except a few cancellations) would be accounted for

Per Troy's estimate, there is a backlog of about 100k ish vehicles that folks are waiting for. Given US seems to have mostly sold out of inventory, and there is excess inventory in China, I think most of these are for markets in EU, Australia, etc. I would guess roughly 50% of whats currently inventory is likely to get delivered on arrival at destination.

 

[verystandard]

Wowsers, $27K U.S. for a Corolla?! At that price, it had better come with a chauffer... oh, wait.

On a serious note, Toyota Corolla/Honda Civic/Nissan Sentra won't be the direct competitor with the Next Gen Tesla Compact because they are falls too far behind (Upcoming Chinese car wave)

Cars like BYD ATTO 3 would be serious competitor if they ever made it to North America. Imagine their car attempting to flood the market / minimum gross margin (barely breakeven probably)? Hells yeah built in TikTok (If still not being banned)?

Tesla needs to get their plan out with Giga Mexico (Adding another line in Texas/Shanghai) fast just to prepare for this upcoming wave

BYD ATTO 3: Expressive and dynamic C-SUV | BYD Europe

BYD ATTO 3 is equipped with the all-new BYD e-Platform 3.0 designed exclusively for pure electric vehicles,Giving full play to the advantages of intelligence,efficiency, safety and aesthetics.

www.byd.com

 

[Open Interest]

Unlikely- otherwise there would never be many cars in inventory
Almost everything ( except a few cancellations) would be accounted for

So, the unaccounted for cars on ships and in storage are just sent to where there seems to be demand?

 

[Ogre]

Austin and Berlin have already hit 3k per week or 12k per month run rate per various reports. The name plate capacity is probably closer to a combined 400k per year at this point. For these 2 factories.

Where are you getting this “Name plate capacity” from?

Tesla has said they expect 10,000 Model Ys per week out of Texas. A Pair of Gigapresses can produce 250k+ Model Ys in a year. The idea that either Texas or Berlin are going to slow down at this point is silly.

Between the revamped Shanghai and Fremont we are probably close to 1.4 million in capacity for s3xy lines, which adds up to 1.8 million representing a 40% delivery growth in 2023. The bigger issue with this is, the production is concentrated in Shanghai, and the demand is elsewhere. So not the most sustainable setup.

Without the seemingly arbitrary caps on production capacity you’ve pulled out of the air, production won’t be concentrated in Shanghai. That’s the whole point of a factory in Berlin and Texas.

 

[EVforLiPo]

Yep, I think we'll see margins come down in 2023 in order to keep deliveries up. Good for the company and moving cars, bad for the bottom line and for TSLA.

Almost everyone thinks TSLA the stock will not have an amazing year but I think we will all be in for a surprise at year end.
My prediction is we end the year a lot higher than beginning. No recession and investors looking at what Tesla the company will do in 2024.

 

[hacer]

Elon hurting demand with his inexcusable behavior still looms large.

Not to mention it's a near certainty that he had non-public insider knowledge of dramatically reduced order rate when he decided to sell $4 billion worth of stock.

 

[2daMoon]

This is a pretty significant miss right?

Is it?

Just because the arrow hit a little off from dead center of the bullseye doesn't mean it missed the target, does it?

Tesla's target of 50% production growth was 47%. This, in a year with all sorts of problematic headwinds. (Plague, Powell, Politics, Poisoned media, etc.)

They hit a little off of a perfect bullseye, shooting in a crosswind, facing backwards using a mirror, all while being spoken rudely to by a mob of haters.

I think they did pretty well, particularly when you look at the grouping on the target made up of all previous quarters' shots.

 

[TrendTrader007]

i don't care about short term expectations or that stupid WS is "disappointed"
i will be buying more for my kids tomorrow and leave those shares untouched for several decades

 

[Ogre]

At least Elon won't take over this January earnings call and prattle on about something as out there as Optimus...right? Right?!?

Elon will be on the call. He will likely talk about long term projects.

Almost everyone thinks TSLA the stock will not have an amazing year but I think we will all be in for a surprise at year end.
My prediction is we end the year a lot higher than beginning. No recession and investors looking at what Tesla the company will do in 2024.

“Almost everyone”??

Kathy from Ark just dropped a boatload of cash loading up on Tesla. Many people have.

I think plenty of people expect a good 2023 starting from the current humble state of things.

 

[madodel]

Can't wait to see how CNBC spins a 47% increase in production YoY and a 1 3/4 million annual run rate based on Q4 as a bad thing.

It's less than 50% growth so "demand is crashing".