Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[zannman]

Is there an over/under on how long the drastic price cuts last to levelize the supply/demand curves?

These numbers a little made up for illustration, but if there were just under 4,500 purchases/deliveries per day last quarter levelized and you're getting 10k orders per day with the price cut with an assumed 6,000 per day production capacity - when do you start to inch prices back up until your orders per day are closer to your production capacity again? How large do you think the surge the last few days has been?

 

[wipster]

Listening to that video, I 100% agree....Chamath gets it!

Listening to that video, I 200% agree! Chamuth definitely gets it!

Definitely worth at least one listen, maybe more!

 

[bkp_duke]

Nightmngr on Twitter posted a comparison of some EV prices in Germany:
Jan 13, 2023

"compared models that are the equivalent of long range and AWD, since I am in the market for that type of a vehicle. "

Tesla vs Competition in Germany:

Y long range - €55k
------------------------------
Polestar 3 - €88k
Toyota bZ4X - €63k w/o options
Nissan Ariya - €63k
Hyundai IONIQ5 - €61K
Kia EV6 - €55k no heat pump
Audi Q4 e-tron - €60k
VW ID4 -€54k - only leasing?
Mercedes EQB - €58k
BMW iX - €77k start

(Ioniq, Kia, VW, Merc… the discount for bafa is not included while Tesla alrdy priced that in )

TESLA DECLARED OPEN WAR on every other car manuf this week. That's only starting to sink in to most people, but I'm sure the auto execs crapped their pants as soon as they heard of the massive price drops.

Valley of (auto) death, here we come! Buckle up!

 

[Mike Smith]

Nightmngr on Twitter posted a comparison of some EV prices in Germany:
Jan 13, 2023

"compared models that are the equivalent of long range and AWD, since I am in the market for that type of a vehicle. "

Tesla vs Competition in Germany:

Y long range - €55k
------------------------------
Polestar 3 - €88k
Toyota bZ4X - €63k w/o options
Nissan Ariya - €63k
Hyundai IONIQ5 - €61K
Kia EV6 - €55k no heat pump
Audi Q4 e-tron - €60k
VW ID4 -€54k - only leasing?
Mercedes EQB - €58k
BMW iX - €77k start

Someone commented:
Ioniq, Kia, VW, Merc… the discount for bafa (~3k lower than MRSP) is not included while Tesla alrdy priced that in.

Wow, only $6k more than a Model Y to get into a Hyundai.

 

[bkp_duke]

The above post is too rational.

There is a lot of truth is the statement "You are what you drive" at least in the US. The vehicle you choose reflects who you want to be or who you are, and this is important to many. It's been said that a guy puts more thought into which car to buy than which woman to marry. Image is key, smooth-talking salesmen are key, and competitors will have advantages that will appeal to many, even though the most practical choice for almost all buyers will be a Tesla.

Have you sat in a Lyriq? There's no Tesla like it. The cabin is much larger than a Y, and it has an appealing, tasteful flash to it. Getting in the Y afterwards, it seemed small and dull. The Y has important advantages, but other vehicles will appeal to many. TCO does not rule for private buyers.

The Y is now ~$15k cheaper than the Lyriq for most buyers.

 

[Xd85]

in OT, talked a family member into getting off the sidelines (been waiting ever since the fumbled 8K tax credit of 2022) and plunk down an order. Only a matter of time until delivery estimates change on tesla.com.

 

[thesmokingman]

There will be blood...

 

[wipster]

The above post is too rational.

There is a lot of truth is the statement "You are what you drive" at least in the US. The vehicle you choose reflects who you want to be or who you are, and this is important to many. It's been said that a guy puts more thought into which car to buy than which woman to marry. Image is key, smooth-talking salesmen are key, and competitors will have advantages that will appeal to many, even though the most practical choice for almost all buyers will be a Tesla.

Have you sat in a Lyriq? There's no Tesla like it. The cabin is much larger than a Y, and it has an appealing, tasteful flash to it. Getting in the Y afterwards, it seemed small and dull. The Y has important advantages, but other vehicles will appeal to many. TCO does not rule for private buyers.

And how many Lyriqs have they been able to sell so far? If they're able to sell 50,000 in the next 3 years I'll be surprised. In the meantime, the model Y will be the best selling car in the world by 2024...

Edit: Cadillac sold 122 Lyriqs in 2022, although over 2,000 were produced. However, per GM, they're sold out for 2023 already. That should put GM in the driver's seat... /s

 

[MP3Mike]

Is there an over/under on how long the drastic price cuts last to levelize the supply/demand curves?

These numbers a little made up for illustration, but if there were just under 4,500 purchases/deliveries per day last quarter levelized and you're getting 10k orders per day with the price cut with an assumed 6,000 per day production capacity - when do you start to inch prices back up until your orders per day are closer to your production capacity again? How large do you think the surge the last few days has been?

The problem is that there is very little room to raise the price without it ending up being a large raise. $2,011 on the Model Y ends up being $9,511.

But even a $1k raise would limit the options available for still qualifying for the tax credit.

 

[thesmokingman]

The $25k IRA price limit on used EVs seemed completely unrealistic not long ago, now it feels relatively within reach

We're gonna have to get a 25K ish car (max budget) for a second teen soon. I've been dreading what to get, best scenario thus far is a BMW i3 sport with some reservations. But gdamn, now I'm stoked can possible squeeze her into a M3 SR if the Model 2 isn't out in a year.

 

[Cosmacelf]

The above post is too rational.

There is a lot of truth is the statement "You are what you drive" at least in the US. The vehicle you choose reflects who you want to be or who you are, and this is important to many. It's been said that a guy puts more thought into which car to buy than which woman to marry. Image is key, and competitors will have advantages that will appeal to many, even though the most practical choice for almost all buyers will be a Tesla.

Have you sat in a Lyriq? There's no Tesla like it. The cabin is much larger than a Y, and it has an appealing, tasteful flash to it. Getting in the Y afterwards, it seemed small and dull. The Y has important advantages, but other vehicles will appeal to many. TCO does not rule for private buyers.

At 122 Lyriqs sold in 2022 it could be made of gold and it wouldn’t matter to Tesla one whit. How many are they projecting to sell in 2023? Whatever the number is, it still won’t matter to Tesla sales…

 

[phoggy123]

The above post is too rational.

There is a lot of truth is the statement "You are what you drive" at least in the US. The vehicle you choose reflects who you want to be or who you are, and this is important to many. It's been said that a guy puts more thought into which car to buy than which woman to marry. Image is key, and competitors will have advantages that will appeal to many, even though the most practical choice for almost all buyers will be a Tesla.

Have you sat in a Lyriq? There's no Tesla like it. The cabin is much larger than a Y, and it has an appealing, tasteful flash to it. Getting in the Y afterwards, it seemed small and dull. The Y has important advantages, but other vehicles will appeal to many. TCO does not rule for private buyers.

I would feel awful for anyone who bought a nice car like the lyric and then discovered that its a commuter car because the charging infrastructure is so unreliable you are stuck with a 200 mile circle around your house. This situation is only going to get more dire and there is no end in sight.

Then you realize you paid 15K more for said commuter car.

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

I sold a car today, to my friend who bought a y less than 1 month ago.... So I think demand is pretty Fing high

 

[AndrewZ]

Is there an over/under on how long the drastic price cuts last to levelize the supply/demand curves?

These numbers a little made up for illustration, but if there were just under 4,500 purchases/deliveries per day last quarter levelized and you're getting 10k orders per day with the price cut with an assumed 6,000 per day production capacity - when do you start to inch prices back up until your orders per day are closer to your production capacity again? How large do you think the surge the last few days has been?

After all this, the crazy price increases since the start of the pandemic feeding into inflation data and causing a response from central banks, I think it’s important to have an increased appreciation for price stability. This is without mentioning what kind of response you could expect just directly from
consumers if this was how it unfolded.

What you’re describing IMO is a worst-case scenario for the Fed that would be amplified if interest rates came down: an ‘80s style inflation spike back up.

If that happens and it feeds into inflation data, you would just see even more hawkishness. Prices need to come down, and they need to stay down before returning to steady ~2% inflation.

 

[Ogre]

Is there an over/under on how long the drastic price cuts last to levelize the supply/demand curves?

These numbers a little made up for illustration, but if there were just under 4,500 purchases/deliveries per day last quarter levelized and you're getting 10k orders per day with the price cut with an assumed 6,000 per day production capacity - when do you start to inch prices back up until your orders per day are closer to your production capacity again? How large do you think the surge the last few days has been?

I don’t think they do. Tesla’s supply is more than double what it was last time prices were this low. They build up a bit of a backlog, but they keep ramping up production until all of their facilities at at 100% capacity (10,000/ week at both Berlin and Texas). As Teslas production increases, COGS continues dropping and Tesla will likely lower prices again on their high volume cars. There might be some time where they feel the need to,push prices up before then, but I’m not 100% sure.

By the time they are fully ramped on the Model Y, the Gen 3 platform launches and Tesla starts selling cars at an even lower price. They are pushing hard to expand their addressable market (TAM). You don’t get to 20m vehicles/ year by raising prices.

 

[FSDtester#1]

If that happens and it feeds into inflation data, you would just see even more hawkishness. Prices need to come down, and they need to stay down before returning to steady ~2% ininflation.

We can confidently say Tesla has done their job to curb inflation.
So all investors in the United States markets can thank Tesla when Darth Powell
pauses rates hikes next month.
A simple "Thank you Elon" on Twitter should suffice...

 

[thesmokingman]

Musk is doing his best to reduce inflation...

^^Dude ninja'd!

 

[FSDtester#1]

Musk is doing his best to reduce inflation...

^^Dude ninja'd!

Great minds think alike !

 

[Ogre]

And how many Lyriqs have they been able to sell so far? If they're able to sell 50,000 in the next 3 years I'll be surprised. In the meantime, the model Y will be the best selling car in the world by 2024...

Edit: Cadillac sold 122 Lyriqs in 2022, although over 2,000 were produced. However, per GM, they're sold out for 2023 already. That should put GM in the driver's seat... /s

I think those 2,000 LYRIQs were only partially finished and are waiting some parts or something.

Personally, I’d be surprised if Cadillac is able to produce 50,000 in the next couple years.

The @Fred42 post got deleted, but I’d suggest that how nice it is to sit in is irrelevant if you can’t take it on a road trip without major headaches. Not only is it not compatible with the most consistent and reliable charging network in the country, it has an oversized inefficient battery. Even if you can find a working high speed charger; “Fast Charging” maxes out at 170 kW so charging that big-ole battery will be slow. So… pay $20k more for a vehicle which sucks on road trips and is 25% more expensive to operate.

—

Mod: to clarify, the post about the Lyriq was self-deleted.

 

[Prunesquallor]

And under the “Clueless” category: The Daily Double!​

Wyoming Legislators Draft Resolution Banning Electric Vehicles By 2035​

Take That, California! Wyoming Legislators Draft Resolution Banning Electric Vehicles By 2035

In response to California and other states phasing out the sale of gasoline-powered cars, Wyoming legislators have introduced a resolution that would ban new electric vehicles in the Cowboy State by 2035.

cowboystatedaily.com

Unlike California’s ban on gas-powered cars, the resolution’s co-sponsor, Sen. Brian Boner, R-Douglas, said the Wyoming resolution would be meaningful in making a statement if passed, but it would be entirely symbolic.